2025 Israel vs Iran War

Their stock is sinking like a rock, 5% in 2 days. https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...haifa-port/articleshow/121825396.cms?from=mdr
From Adanis themselves
"Adani Group's Haifa port in Israel remains operational and unharmed following Iranian ballistic missile attacks. Cargo operations continue normally with eight ships currently in the port. While shrapnel was found nearby, the port itself was not impacted."
Maybe this is one of the tricks, port is fine, it is only the storage facilities that got hit which has nothing to do with us.
Anyhow, 1 big hit today. Loosing a power plant is no joke.
Stock price dropped? Wrap it up boys, Iran won.
 
Honestly it seems like Iran has been testing responses knowing shit will get shot down, figuring out how many diversions are necessary at their targets and is now limiting themselves to more focused strikes, while Israel has a tard fit and chucks whatever at whatever to try and claim victory and goes crying to anyone that will listen.

In terms of wargaming Iran is winning even if their defenses are shit. They're playing the long game, patience and perseverance. Israel wants Iran glassed NOW NOW NOW NOW NOW NOW and will have a tantrum on the world's stage for pity.

I fucking hate both but the Iranian response has been a lot more measured and under the assumption they're gonna fly solo outside of their regional support. Israel thinks they can provoke Iran enough to get more countries involved. They really don't seem to have an endgame beyond getting other people to fight their fight and it looks like the US might finally bend the knee. Disappointing.
 
then why are there no videos of Israeli jets flying over Tehran dropping bombs with impunity the way they bomb Beirut? So far it's all been Mossad drone strikes from within Iran, Mossad bombs and the occasional standoff munition fired from over the horizon. Bombs have higher yields and are cheaper so if you actually have totally uncontested control of the airspace it doesn't make sense to not use them primarily over piddly drones or the expensive guided missiles that are supposed to precede an attack.
Because Teheran is full of AA and one of the most defended locations.
Unless there's loitering HAARM munition in air, Iranians are waiting for opportunity to strike when israeli jets get in range. Then they just turn radar on and send the missile away.
Game of AA vs anti-AA is about as tricky as sub warfare
 
They're far from experts at defense and have used scary pointy missiles and homegrown radar systems thinking it was enough of a deterrent. Iran has neglected the basics of homeland defense and is now paying the price.
Huge cope, the "scary point missiles" seem to be doing a pretty good job at bypassing or nullifying Israel Air defense for now. We have never seen the Iron come suffer so much to counter other bombing campaigns. If israelis were not bloodthirsty as they are, the prospect of mutual destruction would already led to negotiations
 
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Ted Cruz is basically confirming that the US will intervene directly against Iran. He went on several political talk shows today and made the case for war. Since he is on the Senate foreign relations committee, he is basically delivering the party line.

Like it or not, it's going to happen.
 
I hear steam escaping and gas flaring out. Seems they hit one of the boilers. An expensive and time consuming repair and the plant is out of service for 2 months at least.
They only sent 2 missiles and the tinfoil dome shizzed out, launched everything intercepted nothing. Seems the hit is here. Right next to the plant. Very accurate.
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Seems they launched too late, those arcs toward their targets were pretty dramatic but I wouldn't know
why are there no videos of Israeli jets flying over Tehran dropping bombs with impunity the way they bomb Beirut?
My only guess would be the Israelis see no reason to put their airframes at undue risk when they can launch from safe uncontested airspace and still hit their mark. More broadly the severe disparity in technology means the airframes become too precious to be used in ways that put that technology at risk of not being recoverable/falling into the wrong hands so it becomes a strategic limitation
 
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Huge cope, the "scary point missiles" seem to be doing a pretty good job at bypassing or nullifying Israel Air defense for now. We have never seen the Iron come suffer so much to counter other bombing campaigns. If israelis were not bloodthirsty as they are, the prospect of mutual destruction would already led to negotiations
To be fair to the Iron Dome, design wise if I recall correctly it's meant to intercept and destroy short-range rockets and artillery shells and not whatever type of ballistic missile the Iranians are using.
 
In terms of wargaming Iran is winning even if their defenses are shit. They're playing the long game, patience and perseverance. Israel wants Iran glassed NOW NOW NOW NOW NOW NOW and will have a tantrum on the world's stage for pity.
Defending is inherently more difficult and expensive, even more so when it's a small area with high population density and countless spicy (some literally) targets all over the place and next to residential areas. That's why they're proactive about striking any launch facilities and trying to disrupt Iran's command and control chain, they can't be on the other side of missiles being lobbed every night, interceptors are expensive, limited in numbers and their success rate/attempts have been dropping.

Destruction following Iranian missile strikes in the Israeli city of Tel Aviv. (source)

Alleged Israel AD battery misfiring in the Negev area and doing a little Patriot maneuver (source):
 
Please tell me this is just Atlantic Trident…
Note this isn’t in support of Atlantic Trident 25: those tankers are leaving from RAF Mildenhall. H/t @John_A_Ridge

To be fair to the Iron Dome, design wise if I recall correctly it's meant to intercept and destroy short-range rockets and artillery shells and not whatever type of ballistic missile the Iranians are using.
its the whole system at this point

looks like this barrage was still 30-50, just better aimed and with better rockets

iranian state media states
New attack methods led to Israeli defense systems mistakenly targeting one another
 
DO IT PRESIDENT XI, TAKE TAIWAN NOOOOWWWWWW!!!!!!!
Seriously, though, I think the odds of China making a move are high if this war escalates any further. Losing Iran would be a huge loss for the Russia-China alliance, and if it looks like that's about to happen, then Xi might decide that it's time to fight.
 
then why are there no videos of Israeli jets flying over Tehran dropping bombs with impunity the way they bomb Beirut?
A few reasons, Tehran is like NYC in terms of density, even more dense actually. Those surgical strike hellfire drones are being used with care in mind. Iran can indiscriminately bomb Israel but Israel cannot do the same to Iran without killing scores of people and pissing off the bleeding hearts all over the world. They also need to preserve the good will of the Iranian people and using surgical strikes buys that opportunity.

Beyond that, theres the issue of the F-35's own limitations of fuel, drag and weight. Supposedly secret modifications have been made to them to increase their range but in order to keep their stealth capability and distance, they need to keep a light load which means no big boom bombs. Israel also has FPV suicide drones at their disposal and long range ones can risk getting shot down over Tehran vs the protected nuclear and missile sites that requires fighters.
Like it or not, it's going to happen.
I predict the US will step in if Israel gets overwhelmed or there is a threat of a real nuclear warhead in their air. The US is already sending Israel a ton of ammunition with the Hellfire missiles and replenishing the Iron Dome. Its like what we did with Ukraine. My hunch is that Trump is afraid of engaging because of his ego, (doesn't want to get in a forever war) and the threat it would pose to Americans if he went in first. If the US joins, Khamenei could issue a jihad fatwah and soon every large gathering and area in the US becomes a soft target. Staying out also gives Iran a glimpse of hope cope that they can deal with Israel themselves, but not if the US joins in, so its a good threat to hold over the Regimes head and is a cunning play on the world stage of political Kabuki. It gives us an out.
To be fair to the Iron Dome, design wise if I recall correctly it's meant to intercept and destroy short-range rockets and artillery shells and not whatever type of ballistic missile the Iranians are using.
Yes. The US DOD is getting some juicy intel and data about how to combat rising ballistic missile threats from this experience. The data will likely be used in the Golden Dome against Chinas missiles.
 
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