President Trump is
convening his national security team in the White House Situation Room early afternoon on Tuesday to make key decisions about the fast escalating war between Israel and Iran, three US officials have told Axios.
The US Commander-in-Chief appears to be falling into 'The Redirection' trap. Here's what Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Seymour Hersh wrote and predicted
all the way back in 2007 for
The New Yorker:
In the past few months, as the situation in Iraq has deteriorated, the Bush Administration, in both its public diplomacy and its covert operations, has significantly shifted its Middle East strategy. The “redirection,” as some inside the White House have called the new strategy, has brought the United States closer to an open confrontation with Iran and, in parts of the region, propelled it into a widening sectarian conflict between Shiite and Sunni Muslims.
To undermine Iran, which is predominantly Shiite, the Bush Administration has decided, in effect, to reconfigure its priorities in the Middle East. In Lebanon, the Administration has coöperated with Saudi Arabia’s government, which is Sunni, in clandestine operations that are intended to weaken Hezbollah, the Shiite organization that is backed by Iran. The U.S. has also taken part in clandestine operations aimed at Iran and its ally Syria. A by-product of these activities has been the bolstering of Sunni extremist groups that espouse a militant vision of Islam and are hostile to America and sympathetic to Al Qaeda.
And we know that
Iraq was overthrown, Libya was overthrown, and Syria was very recently overthrown, and
now Iran is in the crosshairs of a new 'shock and awe' campaign led by Israel, and possibly soon to be joined by the full might of the United States military under President Trump. Post-Assad Syria is precisely now ruled by the type of
Sunni 'bomb-throwing' fanatics that Hersh described in his archived article. And now the final target for 'bombs away' is in place.
As a reminder, here's why at a moment the West has been shocked by the ballistic might of the Islamic Republic raining down (also
hypersonics) on Tel Aviv, Israel
needs the Pentagon:
Iran's Fordow nuclear site was always going to be a tough target for Israel.
Israeli weapons would struggle to reach it—but the U.S.'s arsenal can. American B-2 Spirit bombers, equipped with one of the world's heaviest non-nuclear bombs, are thought to be the only aircraft-and-bomb pairing able to destroy a target like the nuclear plant at Fordow.
The 30,000 pound GBU-57/B bunker buster, also known as the Massive Ordinance Penetrator (MOP), would very likely be the weapon of choice if President Donald Trump gave the green light to U.S. involvement in Israel's strikes on Iran's nuclear program.
Will Trump give in to Israeli demands of
direct US military intervention... another regime change war in the Middle East... in order to prevent alleged Iranian nuclear arms development?
Retired General Wesley Clark is no dove, but he too predicted everything we're seeing, many years ago:
Below are three of the best takes at this dangerous moment of broader US war fears over the Middle East...
* * *
Executive VP at the Quincy Institute Trita Parsi:
Something happened yesterday, and Trump is now determined to take the country to a war of choice. He can change his mind at the last minute, as he did in 2019, but short of that, there will be war. It is important to understand that capitulation is most likely not an option for Iran for a variety of reasons.
First, Trump's conduct in the past ten days has destroyed any confidence Tehran has in him and his desire for a peaceful outcome. For the Iranians to ever back down from their long-standing position to never give up enrichment, they must have confidence that backing down ends the conflict. They have no such confidence in Trump at this moment. They don't think he will stop there. Second, Tehran has lost confidence in Trump's ability or willingness to say no to Israel (that confidence existed earlier to some extent). And Israel will not be content with even a complete dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program. If the nuclear program is destroyed, Israel will turn to Iran's missile program. It will not accept Iran having missiles that can wreak havoc on Israel - as Iran has done in the last few days. Without missiles, an air force, and a nuclear deterrent, Iran will be completely exposed and defenseless. Once that is achieved, the Israelis will push for regime change or regime collapse.
And after that, as the Israelis have done in Syria after Assad fell, they will push to destroy the rest of Iran's conventional military so that Iran won't be able to challenge Israel's emerging regional military hegemony for decades to come. Iran's territorial integrity will also be put at risk. As a result, Tehran does not view capitulation - even if they desired it, which I don't think they do - as a stable outcome. In their view, their only chance is to fight back. By making the war as costly as possible for the US - even if they will lose it - they think they can either deter Trump, or make him cut the war short. As he did in Yemen.
Thus, if new talks take place and Trump insists on capitulation, he will get war. Iran will pay an immeasurable price. As will the region.
But the US will also pay a very heavy price. Scores of American soldiers may be killed. Oil prices will skyrocket, and gas prices in hot summer months in the US will soar. Inflation will go up. Trump's Iran war may destroy his presidency as Bush's Iraq invasion destroyed his. Iran will lose. But so will the US. Israel is perhaps the only country that will benefit from this war of choice.
* * *
Geopolitical pundit and author at The GrayZone Aaron Matte:
"I have yet to see a single good argument for why Iran needed to enrich uranium well above the threshold for civilian use." The argument is that Trump broke the original Iran nuclear deal, which capped Iran's enrichment at the threshold for civilian use. By killing that deal, which Iran was adhering to, Trump sent the message that the US would not accept Iran enriching even for civilian use.
So Iran -- as it was allowed to under the deal, given Trump's violation of it -- increased enrichment in the hopes of convincing the US to return to the deal and abandon its crippling sanctions that strangle Iran's economy. What were they supposed to do, wait for Donald Trump, Joe Biden and then Donald Trump again to change their minds?
If one wants to argue that the original deal that Trump broke was flawed because it was set to expire, well Trump could have tried to renegotiate it. He didn't. He simply killed it, re-imposed crippling sanctions, and then assassinated Iran's top general as he was trying to de-escalate to Saudi Arabia.
One could also argue that Iran made a tactical error in enriching at a higher level. But it not only has the right to do that, it did so while actively negotiating with Trump and repeatedly renouncing nuclear weapons, as it long has. Just a few months ago, the US intelligence community affirmed that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program suspended in 2003.”
I have yet to see a good argument for your administration chooses to side with Israel over US intelligence, and your promises to voters to stop engaging in endless war.
ZH: Shock and Awe coming to another Mideast country in 2025...
An Israeli bomb exploded in central Tehran.
After the blast, secondary explosions were visible underground.
This caused the rumors about the death of former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He was allegedly under ground.
pic.twitter.com/0XZ2nfqlQr
— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo)
June 17, 2025
* * *
Popular geopolitical analysis blog Moon of Alabama:
Former CIA officer Larry Johnson
opines:
I believe that Israel’s attack was part of a planned international intelligence and military operation, which included the participation and support of the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany. We got the first clue on May 31, when a UN watchdog issued two reports designed to create a narrative that Iran is a
rogue nuclear state:
...
This tactic was employed in 2002/2003 to gin up a justification to attack Iraq, who the US insisted had weapons of mass destruction. We now know it was a lie, but the propaganda was effective in producing support in the US and Europe to invade Iraq. We’re seeing a similar effort today, only this time Iran is being falsely accused of enriching uranium to build a bomb. The Iraq
WMD lie, like the current calumny against Iran, only has one purpose… justify military action in order to achieve regime change.
I have previously
detailed the current IAEA operation to blame Iran over some alleged nuclear contamination which were found more than two decades ago.
During the build-up to the 2003 war on Iraq there was another lie that famously used to 'justify' the attack.
It was alleged that Iraq's leader Saddam Hussein was in cahoots with al-Qaeda, a terrorist group that had been created by the U.S. in Pakistan to fight against the Soviet supported government of Afghanistan.
Al-Qaeda was alleged to have committed attacks in the U.S. on 9/11 2001. Associating Iraq, which had fought against al-Qaeda inspired groups, with al-Qaeda itself was the second most cited lie used to justify the U.S. war on Iraq.
It is no wonder than that a similar narrative is now suddenly being build with regards to Iran.
David Ignatius, the unofficial CIA spokesman at the
Washington Post, was told to publish
this nonsense (
archived):
But Iran has other means to hit back. One that has received little attention is its relationship with al-Qaeda affiliates. According to former U.S. counterterrorism officials, Tehran has built good relations with the new “de facto” al-Qaeda “emir,” Saif al-Adel, who took over in 2023 after Ayman al-Zawahiri was killed. These former officials say Adel helped manage WMD planning for Osama bin Laden.
The al-Qaeda affiliate in Yemen may pose a special danger. It’s headed by Saad bin Atef al-Awlaki, who posted a chilling video this month threatening U.S. officials. “Go after the scum of the earth and its greatest criminals,” he urged his followers, naming Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and former DOGE chief Elon Musk. “There are no red lines after all that has been happening to our people in Gaza,” he said. According to the Jerusalem Post, Awlaki urged Muslims in Europe and America to make sure there is “not a single safe place” for Jews.
Who would be those "former U.S. counterterrorism officials"? Mike Pompeo, John Bolton, or some other notorious liars?
Saif al-Adel, the "de facto" never declared leader of Al-Qaeda has since 2001 been rumored
to be in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, Egypt and Iran where he allegedly was once under house arrest and later exchanged against Iranian hostages held by al-Qaeda in Yemen.
Over more than two decades the Shia Iran has fought the Sunni al-Qaeda wherever it could. Its operations against Sunni extremist in Iraq and Syria were largely wars against al-Qaeda affiliated forces. In Yemen Iran is allied with the Houthi who are fighting against U.S. supported al-Qaeda aligned groups in the south of the country. A similar situation exists in Lebanon where Iran supported Hizbullah forces have for years feuded against al-Qaeda aligned radicals.
To claim that Iran is now somehow in cahoots with Saif al-Adel, an alleged but never declared leader of a more or less extinct al-Qaeda, is blatant nonsense.
* * *
And finally, words from AntiWar.com's Dave DeCamp...
I am of the opinion that this has all already been decided, and we are all being taken on this wild ride to keep everyone off balance before the US starts dropping 30,000-pound bombs on Iran
— Dave DeCamp (@DecampDave)
June 17, 2025
Let's hope not...
Via Polymarket
But here's the hawkish view, or perhaps 'the plan'... the likely
trajectory we are already on, via the
Hudson Institute's David Asher:
In retaliation for recent attacks by Iran and its proxies, Israel is reportedly discussing an attack on Iranian power plants. This approach could be counterproductive. Iran’s energy infrastructure will be a key to the eventual emergence of an alternative regime there. The crucial task is holding the current regime accountable.
...Israel’s most effective course of action would be to target key leadership, military support and financial infrastructure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Intelligence and Security Ministry. That would weaken the regime’s pillars while avoiding direct harm to civilians, which could otherwise foster sympathy for the regime. Combined with attacks on Iran’s external oil-export capacity to deprive the regime of its financial lifeblood, a top-down leadership-focused approach would pressure the regime without disrupting essential domestic services.
"After that Iran’s central bank and oil export facilities should be destroyed."
The 'blueprint' - predicted before... happening now:
Ex-State Department Official Who Blew Up ISIS's Bank Reveals Roadmap For "Striking Iran"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/e...ss-central-bank-reveals-roadmap-striking-iran
— zerohedge (@zerohedge)
October 12, 2024
At this point there's increasingly slim hope that another American 'forever war' and occupation doesn't kick off today or this week.
END OF ARTICLE
============================================================
Ex-State Department Official Who Blew Up ISIS's Bank Reveals Roadmap For "Striking Iran"
Top Israeli officials, including senior ministers and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, met on Thursday to outline a war strategy for Israel's retaliation against Iran, according to the
New York Times, citing two officials who requested anonymity due to the private nature of the discussions. The move comes in response to Iran's bombardment of Israel early last week, which involved up to
200 ballistic and hypersonic missiles. This tit-for-tat escalation could spiral into a much larger and broadening conflict across the Middle East.
NYT cited Israeli officials, who have warned that coming retaliation for last week's missile barrage "will be more severe." President Biden this week spoke with Netanyahu, the first conversation in months, about Israel's pending retaliation strike against Iran.
Last Thursday, Biden was asked by MSM reporters outside the White House if he would support Israel striking Iran's critical oil export facilities. The president said, "We're
discussing that."
President Biden was asked about Israel striking Iran's oil facilities this morning. He said:
"We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little ... anyway … Nothing will happen today."
pic.twitter.com/6AV2fxKHf4
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales)
October 3, 2024
Remember, on Sept. 27, Netanyahu told the United Nations General Assembly, "The curse of Oct. 7 began when Hamas invaded Israel from Gaza, but it didn't end there. Israel was soon forced to defend itself on six more war fronts organized by Iran."
We have detailed in multiple notes how the most likely high-value assets that IDF jets (F-35s) could hit first would be Iran's ability to export crude and crude energy products:
Providing more color on what a potential IDF strike on Iran would look like is
David Asher, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a former US State Department official who has worked on counter-terrorism operations in the Middle East.
Asher noted:
The strategy Israel has successfully implemented against Hezbollah must now be applied against Tehran directly. The regime is the puppeteer behind Oct. 7 and the multifront attacks against Israel.
He explained:
Israel's most effective course of action would be to target key leadership, military support and financial infrastructure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Intelligence and Security Ministry. That would weaken the regime's pillars while avoiding direct harm to civilians, which could otherwise foster sympathy for the regime. Combined with attacks on Iran's external oil-export capacity to deprive the regime of its financial lifeblood, a top-down leadership-focused approach would pressure the regime without disrupting essential domestic services.
Israel should first neutralize the immediate missile threat posed by the regime. Striking Iran's leadership and nuclear facilities without simultaneously addressing Iran's offensive missile capabilities would allow the regime to retaliate aggressively. Iran knows this, which explains why its rulers are posting web images of their subterranean "missile cities." Next, Israel must attack the regime's headquarters, command facilities and military. No key Iranian leaders should be spared. The precision killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a Tehran apartment demonstrates that Israel can strike anyone, anytime and anywhere.
Then Iran's military training camps on the Iraq border should be smoked. For decades, these camps have been used to train Iranian, Hezbollah, Hamas and Iraqi special-group operatives for campaigns against Israel, U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, and global antiterrorist operations. After that Iran's central bank and oil export facilities should be destroyed.
Asher pointed out he was critical in counter-terrorism operations against ISIS's central bank and cash distribution centers across Mosul, Iraq, in 2015-16.
He said the combination of kinetic warfare and economic warfare could be a winning strategy for Israel to
dismantle Tehran's financial apparatus, adding that
only after "disrupting command, control, and financial and logistical infrastructure should Israel consider direct action against key Iranian nuclear facilities."
...
Iran's largest power plant:
This power plant produces a total of about 2880 megawatts of electricity
pic.twitter.com/TjKjdLrSOV
— Mossad Commentary (@MOSSADil)
October 1, 2024
Asher said Americans should not forget...
The U.S. should provide direct and public support to Israel's counterstrikes, not just sit on the sidelines. America should never forget the large number of Americans who have been murdered by Iran and its terrorist action network since Hezbollah attacked the U.S. Embassy in Beirut multiple times in the 1980s and obliterated U.S. barracks there in 1983, killing 241 Marines and sailors. These attacks were followed by the Khobar Towers bombing in 1996 and numerous Iran-directed attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq between 2003 and 2012 that killed and wounded thousands.
The U.S. military has a blood grievance against Tehran's regime. Yet there has been little retaliation beyond taking down Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020. Now is the time to join Israel in retribution at scale and scope.
A 2018 book by Col. Richard Kemp and Maj. (ret.) Chris Driver-Williams, titled
"Killing Americans and Their Allies: Iran's Continuing War against the U.S. and the West," detailed how over 1,100 US deaths in Iraq are estimated as attributable to Iran.
Segwaying into energy markets... Brent crude prices would surge if IDF fighter jets neutralized Iran's oil-export capacity.
According to
S&P Global...
Iran's crude export loadings remained well below normal levels Oct. 10 as oil markets continued to brace for an expected retaliatory strike by Israel on Iran that could target the country's oil infrastructure and disrupt Middle Eastern oil supplies.
Register Now Crude loadings from Iran averaged 816,244 b/d in the week to Oct. 9, according to preliminary observed and estimated tanker movements in S&P Global Commodities at Sea. A 2 million-barrel cargo of Iranian crude was seen leaving Iranian waters Oct. 9, the second VLCC crude cargo in four days after an apparent hiatus of VLCC liftings since Sept. 28, when the geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel escalated.
Here's a detailed map of oil assets across the Middle East:
Late last month, Goldman analyst Lindsay Matcham told clients a
war risk premium in Brent crude prices was absent. If IDF forces target Iranian energy assets, especially knocking out Tehran's ability to export crude to buyers in Singapore and China, then Brent prices would instantly reprice much, much higher.
Asher penned a note in March about a "
Global oil shock could trigger a crisis ala 2007-2008" if the Middle East spirals out of control.
The looming question is whether Israel will strike Iran before or after the US presidential election.
END OF ARTICLE
I’m ok with that.