2025 Israel vs Iran War

Okay, so, wike, Iswael and Iwan awe two countwies in the Middwe East, and they’ve got a super compwicated wewationship, nyaa~! giggles Wet me bweak it down in the cutest way possibwe! ฅ^•ω•^ฅ
Iswael is this smol but stwong countwy, wike a feisty wittle kitty, with a big histowy tied to the Jewish peopwe. It was made in 1948, and it’s got a mix of ancient vibes and modern techy stuff, nyaa! Its capital is Jewusawem, which is supew impowtant to wots of peopwe for wewigious weasons. But, oh noes, it’s had some twoubles with its neighbows, incwuding Iwan, eep! >.<
Iwan, on the other paw, is a big, powewful countwy with a wong, pwoud histowy, wike a majestic lion, rawr~! It’s got a diffewent kind of govewnment, cawwed an Iswamic Wepubwic, since 1979, and it’s weally focused on its own cuwtuwe and infwuence in the wegion. Iwan’s weadews don’t wike Iswael much, and they often cwash, wike when two kitties hiss at each othew! pouts
 
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reversbo said:
Damn, all those military planes in the Mediterranean and middle eastern airspace have gone home or dark, no C17, no A400, no C130, no tankers, etc. Except a LM-100J Hercules of all things. Am I just heavily retarded and don't know how to do this or is this really fucking strange?
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Likely don't want Iran to see when it makes a landing, in case they do something big dumb.
 
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lol
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Falcos_Commisar said:
The Kilo was improved over the years and has been made under the Improved Kilo designation (Project 636)

That said the Iranain ones are the original design buutt USN and especially RN anti sub skill have probably degraded since the end of the Cold War.

Those Kilos would need to get out into the Indian ocean to cause trouble.
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The "improved Kilo" is only moderately improved. There are minor-to-moderate sensor upgrades, commsuite is brought up to modern (for Russia) standards, and some electrical improvements. No changes to performance were made - same depth, same speed. Though IIRC they finally water-treated the cork paneling and put some addtional stryofoam on the hull to reduce crew noise.

The only actual improvement for the Project 636.3 is the sub/upper forward torpedo room (two tubes) has been lengthened to accommodate a tube-launched Kalibr variant of which it can carry 4 total. But they can't go full Ohio-class with them - they have a fairly shallow launch depth and its more about having the capability than it being actually useful. But Iran only has 877s with some sonar modifications IIRC so irrelevant.

But even if they weren't in drydock, the chances of Iran's subs getting out of the Persian gulf are about zero percent. The gulf is shallow enough to track subs visually, something that was demonstrated years ago. If they got out the Indian ocean to be a threat it would require a skilled sub commander used to how his ship appears to enemy sensors, using the thermocline, and also post important: The accoustic panels not just rotting/falling off
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tl;dr: US NATO Fuck Iran Alliance subhunting might be degraded, but do you think the Iranian Subs and crews are actually up for dealing with a sleepy sonar operator even if Xhe is drowsy from xer HRT injections?
 
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Mr. Racewar1488 said:
According to a ZDF (German news network) correspondent in Zuric the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqji was forced to obtain permission from Israel for his air trip and inform them, because the Iranian airspace became actually under the control of Israel. Can anyone who speaks German confirm this?
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The segment is at the end of the video, starting at around 0:50, if we're splitting hairs, he did not exactly say the minister was forced to obtain permission, but rather that Iran took the caution to notify Israel in advance, since he indeed claims that the Iranian airspace is under the control of Israel.
 
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Hermann von Salsa said:
In a hypothetical ground invasion of Iran would Israel/America just invade through Iraq or go through the sea and air?
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Likely Sea and Air; there's no reason to go through hostile Iraqi groups if Iran is the goal. With air control in most of Iran already, getting an airfield built or captured to land more equipment and personnel wouldn't be a big deal.
 
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Hermann von Salsa said:
In a hypothetical ground invasion of Iran would Israel/America just invade through Iraq or go through the sea and air?
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Neither. Its more likely they go in through NATO member Turkey for the bulk of ground forces. Once Iran's government caves high odds of Turkmenistan and Pakistan opening their airspace.

The potential fucking of Iran has the opportunity for hilarity such as the US & Taliban to be on the same side as Afghanistan and Iran have some border disputes. Pakistan, currently on the outs (but less than a few year ago) with Iran might take the opportunity to earn them some good boy points + F-16 service life extension credits by opting to throw in air patrols which means we might get to see Russian and and Chinese fighters square off as preview for the impending invasion of siberia.

Iraq's government will be a real X factor.
To tl;dr: Shia is a minority Islamic religion when you look at global Islam, but they are the majority of Arab muslims. Iran and Southern Iraq are Shia Arab, northern Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is fundy Sunni, Saudi Arabia is Wahabi which is expansionist fundie Islam. Everyone else is most Sunni of various flavors.

Saddam's Iraq was a Sunni minority rule over a Shia majority and a Kurd minority. (Baathists are... secular fundie nationalists. Think Mussolini and Catholicism; he would bring out his religion as a rallying point for the masses but they weren't running the government by the Pope's edicts) The Shia majority got a lot of support from Iran and got more during the US invasion.

So the Shia now run the country, but there are competing factions inside the Shia. They use Militia, mainly backed and supported/armed by Iran to hold their power, especially the smaller factions. The primary factions incharge of the country would love to be rid of the Militia so they could completely dominate all Shia - but taking out the militia would be effectively a civil war, unless they would be able to do so very quickly in one stroke. If they don't, they would fall to infighting and weaken themselves to the Sunnis and Kurds.
So there is a not a high chance, but maybe about a third, that the Iraqi government might decide to use the fact everyone is about to curb stomp Iran to implement a final solution to the Iranian militia problem - because if they don't, its almost certain war is going to come to them anyway because of the cross-border ties.
 
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PhoBingas said:
Wasn't that the guy who went out like Elvis? Heart attack while taking a dump? Or am I thinking of something else?
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I found the story: https://www.military.com/daily-news...art-attack-after-rocket-attack-iraq-base.html
No U.S. service members were injured during the barrage of roughly 10 rockets fired at the base in western Iraq, the Pentagon said Wednesday. But the contractor had a heart attack while sheltering in place and died shortly afterward.
RichardMongler said:
Was he a mainland Albanian or Kosovar Albanian? The latter are much more religious.
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I wouldn't know. Second generation kid as parents escaped the wars. Annoying as anything and thinks of himself like a king towards others. Short and angry.
reversbo said:
Damn, all those military planes in the Mediterranean and middle eastern airspace have gone home or dark, no C17, no A400, no C130, no tankers, etc. Except a LM-100J Hercules of all things. Am I just heavily retarded and don't know how to do this or is this really fucking strange?
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Their transponders are turned off. They will shift around and land probably in italian nato field and then move to cyprus.
Ghostse said:
But even if they weren't in drydock, the chances of Iran's subs getting out of the Persian gulf are about zero percent. The gulf is shallow enough to track subs visually, something that was demonstrated years ago. If they got out the Indian ocean to be a threat it would require a skilled sub commander used to how his ship appears to enemy sensors, using the thermocline, and also post important: The accoustic panels not just rotting/falling off
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They can just hide under a commercial vessel.
Kuritan Deplorable said:
If Iran did try to preemptively strike the Saudi's, all they'd do is guarantee that the entire rest of the world turns against them. Threatening the OPEC kingpin like that is threatening global energy security, even China would drop your ass with just how much they depend on energy imports.
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Not an issue really. Any attack on saudi would shot oil prices and therefore US exports thru the roof.
Preemptive strike would be best option for iran, dealing heavy casualties among the few remaining frames that were operational.
 
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General Kalani said:
Now this inbred islamic pedophile deserves to die even more. Holocaust Khamenei and his followers into extinction. Turn Iran into ash.
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It is so funny when you put it in those terms: Our pedophiles are better than your pedophiles and that's why we should bomb you.
polyester said:
Do you really not understand the difference between someone currently employed in a country's nuclear weapons program (i.e. a military endeavor), and a random civilian who was once drafted to a fixed-term military service and has gone back to being a civilian?

The Geneva Conventions are not ambiguous about this, why do so many posters ITT pretend that it's ambiguous?
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Because contracts that bind workers and people to military goals (CCCP) don't really make them civilians. Even gathering OSINT intelligence that military uses is borderline risky and spreading propaganda is not any less so.
Outside contractors working in military base are prob legit targets too.
UKR Civvies that were making molotows and then hiding behind trees to throw them on tanks were mowed like grass. There was some small outrage but nothing came out of it.
There was also quit a big discussion about UKR app that civs could use to point at military movements.
The ending was that they may fall into combatants area as they are gathering military intelligence.

A Geneva contract won't prevent anyone to drop a bomb on your head tho and israelis really have no issue executing anyone as witnessed in past year.
If you are just employed in nuclear program that does not have a military purpose, you would be a civilian probably. But when outer factors decide what is and what isn't military, the area is shady.

The issue also dims when you consider what happened between gaza and israel. Polls were used to further the goal, "look at them, they want us dead !" Now it is exactly the same shit, just flipped around.
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We are entering a very shadowy realm of: Might is right
It is cool when you are on the "mighty" side, but the apparatus can turn against you as against any other:
"Trump says America has ‘too many’ national holidays and they’re hurting the economy."
 
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