2025 Israel vs Iran War

Catch The Rainbow said:

The New York Times reports: “Iran coordinated the attacks on the American air base in Qatar with Qatari officials and gave advanced notice that attacks were coming to minimize casualties, according to three Iranian officials familiar with the plans. The officials said Iran symbolically needed to strike back at the U.S. but at the same time carry it out in a way that allowed all sides an exit ramp; they described it as a similar strategy to 2020 when Iran gave Iraq heads up before firing ballistic missiles an American base in Iraq following the assassination of its top general.”
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Ya, that wouldn't be a surprise. However, Iran has lost so much face this is a joke.

Some other observations. First, if Iran had actually moved their sensitive nuclear equipment away from the stricken sites we/the Israelis would have known about it. Hard to hide from satellites and certain other means.

Second, you cannot operate such equipment just anywhere. At a minimum, you need a reliable source of a certain type of electricity, meaning power that is steady, doesn't surge or fluctuate beyond very tight parameters. You will also need very large clean-room type facilities, air-conditioned. May need access to a lot of water. Gonna need similar storage facilities, access to the road/rail network, housing for workers and their families if commuting not practicable, etc. Such facilities don't grow on trees here, much less in Iran.

The telegraphed attack on the base at Qatar tells me we knocked the shit out of the nuclear facilities. Let's see....Iranian air force and air defense apparently totally neutralized. Tehran an Israeli bombing range. We came right in, Iranians didn't know until bombs started going off. We can do that anywhere in the country with little risk. Iran stands naked before US/Israeli air power. This is bad for Iran, and the speed at which their defense crumbled is even worse for them.

And the Russians are talking utter shit when they say other countries want to give Iran nukes. No fucking way, Ike.

Am sure backchannel discussions have been going on since the start of this thing. The Iranians have been hurt and humiliated and they know it. They deal from a position of weakness, and everyone, especially the Russians, Chinese, North Koreans, and the Arab countries know it. Am sure behind closed doors the Saudis and probably the Egyptians have been celebrating, if not also providing certain very quiet support to the US/Israeli effort.

What will happen? Absent internal regime change, Iran agrees to stop their nuclear weapons program and be subject to no-notice inspections by US/Israeli inspectors , no more UN. Civilian nuclear research proceeds, albeit also subject to no-notice inspections. So while you may be shocked, don't be surprised by anything that happens.
 
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MetokurGroomedMe said:
how fucked their nuclear program is.
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They have enough highly enriched uranium for roughy 4 bombs and more 60% enriched uranium, but the tiny hats reportedly know where it is. With all the command and communication chaos, its highly unlikely they could pull enough resources together to build it without anyone noticing, if at all. All the important scientists are dead and the sites themselves have been destroyed. Israel says they successfully attacked Iran's second nuclear archive of plans and documents after the 1st one got stolen in 2018.

People have fled Tehran and are now all over the country. Israel now has control over the skies and are watching the nuclear sites closely. Thats all the HEU they will have for the next few decades. Program is terminal now.
 
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Stardust_Ziggy said:
Yeah. I’m starting to get the distinct feeling that other countries are starting to smell blood in the water and are licking their lips.
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Yup, I think most ME countries are sick of Iran and its proxies being tards. Now they've shown to be utterly incompetent there has to be some thinking they could sort the issue out. Practically every leader in the region gains if Iran gets fucked.
 
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JosephStalin said:
Am sure backchannel discussions have been going on since the start of this thing. The Iranians have been hurt and humiliated and they know it. They deal from a position of weakness, and everyone, especially the Russians, Chinese, North Koreans, and the Arab countries know it. Am sure behind closed doors the Saudis and probably the Egyptians have been celebrating, if not also providing certain very quiet support to the US/Israeli effort.

What will happen? Absent internal regime change, Iran agrees to stop their nuclear weapons program and be subject to no-notice inspections by US/Israeli inspectors , no more UN. Civilian nuclear research proceeds, albeit also subject to no-notice inspections. So while you may be shocked, don't be surprised by anything that happens.
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I think it is worth emphasizing that their largest/only buyer of Iranian oil, China, is publicly telling Iran they will not tolerate the Strait of Hormuz being closed. They seemingly have no more cards to play unless they're going to activate sleeper cells in foreign countries (which I have no doubt that they actually have, but even then the damage would be minimal).

Apparently Iran's own internal economy has been on the brink for a while and they've had riots over the years over the price of petrol in which people have been killed. They have very little wiggle room with their own population.

I fully believe this is going to blow over in a week or less - the question is if Israel and the US are going to push further and get rid of the current regime once and for all.
 
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Trump-chan, notice me!!!
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