Given recent events in Iran, I owe this thread an over-due mea culpa.
I said Syrian AAD getting blown up by Israel in the after math didn't really matter much in the long term. But it was taking out those defense sites that allowed Israel's attack on Iran to be possible through the completely empty corridor of former ISIS territory of Iraq. It was staring me right in the face and I didn't see that play coming.
Given recent events in Iran, I owe this thread an over-due mea culpa.
I said Syrian AAD getting blown up by Israel in the after math didn't really matter much in the long term. But it was taking out those defense sites that allowed Israel's attack on Iran to be possible through the completely empty corridor of former ISIS territory of Iraq. It was staring me right in the face and I didn't see that play coming.
Its was more about two things: offlining the RADAR and making it so Syria couldn't do anything.
The first is self-explanitory; its unlikely the current regime would have launched a serious SAM strike on the IDF, but the radar sites would have provided solid and early confirmation that Isreali jets were in-bound, and while Syrian radars are top-of-the-line for 1970 its likely given the ranges involve they would have been able to detect the F-35s as "something" - not enough for a tactical lock, but good odds someone would see something odd.
Iran doesn't really have many friends left in Syria, but Iran does have money and there are tons of IRGC tip-line cards lying around after 50 years. All it would take for someone in the chain to hear about those barely-there radar blips and decide Iran might give them a reward for that information. Which again, its not like Iran would have really been able to do anything about that, but they would then know, for certain, that hell was coming and have a couple hours to do something about that: evacuate personnel/equipment, etc.
Additionally, a lot of the Iranian inability to respond to the IDF strike was their AAD getting drone'd. If those drones hadn't been as effective as they had, removing the ability of other countries to act as early-warning RADAR for Iran would have given Iran less time to try to move mobile Air defense into better positions. It wouldn't have stopped anything but if they'd been able to get even one jet it would have been a serious problem for Israel.
The second is maybe more important: They rendered the Syrian forces utterly unable to do anything about the Jewish use of their skies.
When the diplomatic fallout and finger pointing starts, Syria can just shrug and say "We literally had no AA to stop them and no tracking RADAR to pick them up. What do you want us to do?"
I very much Doubt that Joulani's boy's took him out. Because if they did, they'd be proclaiming it loudly and proudly to their own people and anybody else who cared to listen. Also, Hafza Al-Assad filed for divorce from him after they fled.
There's been another Druze-Sunni flareup across Suwayda Governorate, where most of Syria's Druze live, in the last two days. Reportedly it started when a Druze vegetable merchant was robbed & beaten by Bedouin tribal brigands, leading to the anti-HTS Druze militias (the ones that reached a ceasefire agreement with AJ back in May) taking hostages from the Bedouin tribes & trying to get the looted goods back, in turn leading to an escalating spiral of hostilities between the two groups. The Bedouins got help from their Sunni brethren in neighboring Daraa, and the government tried sending troops to 'restore the peace' (in all probability, taking the side of the Bedouins).
DeepL translation: 'Syrian army members killed in ambushes by local outlaw factions in #Suwayda governorate, the army was working to resolve a conflict between these factions and Bedouin militants.'
Well after that, the new gov't went all-in on crushing the rebel Druze, a task in which they are supported not only by said local Bedouins but also pro-HTS (and during the civil war, anti-Assad) Druze factions & sheikhs such as Laith al-Balous. (The anti-HTS Druze are led by Hikmat al-Hijri, a religious elder as opposed to sheikhs like Al-Balous, and who had previously backed Assad.) The fighting has gone very poorly for the Druze, much worse than I and evidently many others still tuned into the conflict had expected, since it's only been two days and the new official Syrian Army (henceforth I will abbreviate them to SA, so as to avoid confusion with the SAA, and this refers to not just HTS but also all the former Islamist/FSA/Turkish proxy forces that have agreed to merge into their ranks) + their local auxiliaries have already breached the Druze provincial capital of Suwayda.
Suwayda's in the far south, however the real danger for her (and anyone else in Damascus) is that the Druze neighborhoods of the capital take up arms in support of their brethren and start up sectarian clashes there. The Damascene suburb of Jaramana in particular is a Druze stronghold and where the fighting closest to the capital proper occurred the last time the Druze butted heads with AJ, back in April-May.
Israel spent the last months stirring up anti-Druze sentiment in Syria while flooding the information space with lies about the Syrian government, while maintaining a state of lawlessness that facilitated all manner of illegal activities in the south of Syria.
Now it looks like they're trying to incite massacres of Druze and perhaps start a new civil war by backing outlaw militias against government forces, and attacking government forces and institutions.
Since this is utterly idiotic, I assume this is based on Israeli domestic politics. Basically Netanyahu is killing Syrian Druze for.. something. I don't know what. For whatever reason the Israeli government does everything in its power to avoid a state of peace for Israel.
Also I dunno if it's hilarious or sad that all of the Syrian government's sponsors aren't even bothering to lift a single finger to help them fight off the Israelis.
Israel spent the last months stirring up anti-Druze sentiment in Syria while flooding the information space with lies about the Syrian government, while maintaining a state of lawlessness that facilitated all manner of illegal activities in the south of Syria.
Now it looks like they're trying to incite massacres of Druze and perhaps start a new civil war by backing outlaw militias against government forces and attacking government forces and institutions.
Since this is utterly idiotic, I assume this is based on Israeli domestic politics. Basically Netanyahu is killing Syrian Druze for.. something. I don't know what. For whatever reason the Israeli government does everything in its power to avoid a state of peace for Israel.
Gone a lot further today than yesterday. The Israelis have sprung a more extensive bombing campaign, targeting the new government's sites in Damascus including the presidential palace and even getting in a Tehran-style mid-live broadcast bombing:
Also I dunno if it's hilarious or sad that all of the Syrian government's sponsors aren't even bothering to lift a single finger to help them fight off the Israelis.
Tbf, there's really not much that the new gov't sponsors in the Gulf and Saudi Arabia can do about direct Israeli attacks like this other than the 'strongly worded letter', that is, trying to pressure the Trump Administration to do what they did in the final hours of the Twelve Day War and get Israel to fuck off. Turkey is the only patron that can realistically militarily intervene and I don't think the Sultan is all that eager for a full-on war with Israel no matter what he says about Palestine, to say nothing of the clusterfuck that would ensue from a NATO member-state fighting the Greatest Ally™ in a third country.
In recent days Netanyahu's Ultra-Orthodox coalition partners are threatening to/actually walking out over their demand for a bill to exempt the Haredim (basically the niggers of Israel who soak up gibs, reproduce like rats and refuse to do anything useful b/c 'muh religious studies ARE useful G-ddammit!') from being conscripted, so this incursion might be seen as a useful distraction by Bibi. That and it also appeases internal pressure from the Israeli Druze.
Fuck, you beat me to posting those while I was still writing up this post. But yes, it looks like they're trying a lot harder today, though as I also said in this post, it may not be enough to save Al-Hijri anyway since the SA/GSS fought their way to his neighborhood. We may be at a point where only direct Israeli ground intervention can stop the government, much as the SLA needed the IDF's direct occupation of South Lebanon in order to not die.
Reminder that the Damascus government, which has pursued peaceful relations with Israel through diplomacy and cooperates with fully with international institutions with the goal of building a stable and prosperous Syria, had a deal with local Druze and Christian leaders that would see the disarming of militias and gangs in return for local law enforcement and security being made up of local Druze and Christians. Armed, but integrated into Syrian state institutions.
Israel supported mob boss and Druze religious leader al Hijri then started an insurrection, which is being supported by the IDF through bombing government forces and institutions "to protect the Druze", which resulted in an escalation of violence against Druze.
The Israelis target specifically those who condemned outrages and have the inclination and at least some ability to reign that in, while publicly smearing the entire Druze community by associating them with Israeli goverment, which has positioned itself as an unprovoked and yet implacable enemy of the Syrian people.
Netanyahu is personally responsible for every atrocity comitted against Syrian Druze as a result of this conflict.
Fuck, you beat me to posting those while I was still writing up this post. But yes, it looks like they're trying a lot harder today, though as I also said in this post, it may not be enough to save Al-Hijri anyway since the SA/GSS fought their way to his neighborhood. We may be at a point where only direct Israeli ground intervention can stop the government, much as the SLA needed the IDF's direct occupation of South Lebanon in order to not die.
Amusingly I found out about this and got the videos from the Chantal thread since she literally filmed a vlog right outside the ministry of defense a couple of days ago.
