Sentiment in the Trump Administration believes that Russia will ultimately defeat Ukraine, with
Russian forces steadily gaining territory in a front now stretching Ukraine's 7 provinces (called 'oblasts'). However, a Ukrainian defeat will be pinned on Trump, making him and the United States appear weak in front of the American crowd and the world. No matter how much Trump pins the conflict on his predecessor Joe Biden, Trump knows his administration will bear the brunt of the predicted fall of Ukraine as it will happen under his watch, just as Biden did with Afghanistan in a withdrawal started by Trump. This is why Trump is pressing for a peace deal or a ceasefire as it will give the United States an exit from Ukraine. If war breaks out again, Trump can just call the Russians and Ukrainians crazy like
he did with Israel and Iran and thus refuse to intervene.
Any peace deal would have to consider several of Russia’s core demands: keeping Ukraine out of NATO, demilitarization of Ukraine, and ceding the Donbass (Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts) to Russia. Acknowledging these outright would make Trump look weak, hence why he is hesitant on accepting them.
Putin and the Russians has thus created a nerfed version of the deal—trading Russian-held territory in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk for full control of the Donbass, while quietly dropping claims to full control over Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. This gives the appearance of Russian compromise due to weakness (in addition to Trump going after Russia's ally India), appealing to Trump’s image of strength. However, both sides know Ukraine will reject the deal as it would be political suicide for the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky due to the cession of the Donbass.
If Zelensky rejects the proposed deal, Trump will then blame Zelensky and Ukraine for continuing the war and rejecting peace, allowing the Americans to leave the conflict looking strong while Russia continues the war to its heart's content to achieve all of its strategic and territorial objectives such as annexation of more oblasts. The result would only soften the inevitable negative impact of Trump and America's image, which is why the potential economic benefits of a potential Russo-American economic partnership is brought up. Notice that the 5-member delegation teams of both countries having two economic officials.
Besides the historical significance and being on the opposite side of the Earth from Europe, Alaska is in the Arctic region, which includes 13% of undiscovered oil in the world, roughly 90 billion barrels, and 30% of undiscovered natural gas, and Russia controls half of that. Recall when Trump made remarks that the United States will annex Canada and Greenland to mine these resources.
Rather than compete, Russia plans to give a multibillion dollar opportunity to collaborate with Trump in mining these resources on Russia's territory, combining American oil expertise with Russian shipping and logistics. The revenues would be immense, giving both Russia and the United States economic prosperity as well as help bring Russia out of China's sphere of influence, which Trump has made it a personal goal for containment of China.
In Trump’s framing, this would be an “Art of the Deal”-style win, overshadowing the negative optics of Ukraine’s fall. (
Source archive of this analysis by the British magazine The Spectator)