penava
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Sep 27, 2024
I think that with respect to an invasion of Taiwan and this current Iranian situation, the CCP's best option isn't to prepare to go all-in on a military confrontation, but to get the IRGC to drag this conflict out as possible to poison the US appetite and ability for interventionism. They might rely on the Strait for oil, but so do Japan and worst Korea, and if this continues, they may be able to make it so the political climate in those countries becomes hostile towards allowing US bases. I had thought the Chinese supplying the Iranians with weapons was unlikely, but looking at it from this angle, if a lucky shot manages to cause mass US casualties, even if Iran is flattened the next day, public opinion on any future intervention could sour to the point where Taiwanese people become convinced the US wouldn't come to their aid and they give up. This is yet another reason Bridge and Power Plant Day can't come soon enough, Trump has to show America is willing and able to use real force against people who play around with fake negotiations.I have some concerns that China is "watching and learning" like the US "watched and learned" about the USSR's MiG-25 and thus directed more resources to the F-15 to utterly dominate the skies.
That is, China pre-Bridge and Power plantAyatollah and IRGC Day might have gone after Taiwan half-cocked and been utterly BTFO when they discovered what the US can really do. Now they have a much better appreciation of what they're up against and if they do decide to invade Taiwan, it likely won't be any half-measures.
Granted the issue there is that doing that requires a military force able to go toe-to-toe with the US over the entire Asia-Pacific theater, and if you have a force that lethal it also means your generals have a force able to overthrow the CCP and put themselves in charge.
This is the Iran thread so I'll it at that.





