I almost think the opposite - this is Phil's opportunity to completely ignore the urgent need to refresh his Patreon goals and perk levels at the expense of apparently pushing for more Twitch subs. Phil genuinely thinks more subs is better than more Patreon bux. He needs 80 (maybe more now he complained about losing some) more subs to get to 350 subs on Twitch before he'll even entertain the idea of doing a goal. So with $2.50 per sub going to Phil and 80 more subs, he's getting $200 a month to do a goal he was getting paid $1250 for on Patreon.
As far as I can track sub count (occasionally DSP states the number in chat or rambling on prestream etc.) he was down to 283 on November 29th, and has whined about "losing 35-40 subs" December 11th's prestream while he was away. This might put him all the way back down to ~250. Over the months DSP has claimed his sub count fluctuates from ~220 to ~270, so he could be back to a 250 average as before the TwitchCon stuff happened.
Before anyone goes 'didn't he get a LOT of subs last night?' not really when you average it out over SIX DAYS of time off. 2 subs while away, 16 subs during the CoDWWII stream... which is 3 per day, or would average to a pitiful 90 per month, not even close to the 250 he usually gets and now 350 he wants in January.
Another fun part of his 'it's about subs now!' push for January is... he won't get January subs money until mid-March. It's a 45 day delay for Twitch partners to get cheer/sub(/ad rev?) money from Twitch, DSP has implied he gets it mid month so it seems like he's about to receive all October's money soon, all November's money in mid January and then even this month's cheers/subs(/ad rev?) won't be received until mid February.
Look at the last few goals:
Mario Sunshine - absolute shit show about him refusing to play it
Halloween Marathon - absolute shit show, failed to meet goal level
Halloween Marathon - second time round, big anonymous donation meant he JUST hit the goal. Phil gets to buy a costume, act like a clown and do 6 hours of work.
PUBG - failed
Christmas Marathon - anonymous big donation and still nearly missed goal - Phils reward is he gets paid $1250 to drink alcohol and play games for 6 hours.
The Christmas big pledge was not anonymous, neither of the 'big' ones he hyped were. There was a $206 pledge by nolbert87 done during an NfS Payback stream, he cheered twice about it in that November 14th stream:
[21:27] <nolbert87> cheer50 I'm new to patreon I've never used it. Is there any way to pledge one time and not per month?
[21:42] <nolbert87> cheer10 ok so I just delete my pledge? because it looks like it took it away?
DSP confirms that pledge went through in the stream outro that day, stating the $206 total. I made an edited video of it, I won't whore views by linking it here.
Also the next day during Mario Odyssey's stream on November 15th he cheered this:
[16:06] <nolbert87> cheer20 Your very welcome Phil..its the least i could do for the years of laughs and entertainment. I really wanted to see this Xmas special. So i'm glad I could help.
The other 'big' pledge was around $50, IIRC it was November 30th before or during prestream, DSP gave 'Nich' (presumably Nich2440) a shoutout for helping to secure the goal after a few people had pulled their pledges in the last 2 weeks since DSP acted like the goal was almost guaranteed.
I understand what you are saying. The goals that he wants to do, he’ll do, and things like Super Mario Sunshine will miraculously “fail.” He wants his channel to be doing well when his fans need a morale boost or to further a narrative, and then wants his channel to do bad 99% of the time. It’s a way to “cook the books” with little chance of getting caught.
I'll push this and say also he'll try to avoid doing goals that he can't make as much money as he wants. He fucked up by not blocking Nintendo etc. playthroughs for Patrons' Choice, since they'll all get ContentID matched and no precious YouTube ad revenue. Patreon goals have to be profitable on Twitch & YouTube. This is why he'll never do MGS2 or 3 without chat - he wants to get the cheer/sub/tip money so he has to do shoutouts.
I'll end on this... Patreon is still a train wreck. Only activity I've noticed in the last couple days was a $5 pledge being added (went up 1 patron & $4)... within 24 hours it went down that same amount again.
@SoapQueen1 can tell us more accurately for quickly added and pulled pledges, but since there was mention of a $50 pledge & maybe the $20 pledge right at the end of November... at best this is ~$925-950 out of $1125 AKA '$1250', roughly $200 away and still $1075 away from $2000 AKA '$2125'.