DSP's Loan & Savings Company

[Sparkletor]

Well I just got shot and am dying from a bullet wound. My grandpa's brother had the same thing in Vietanam and didn't tell anybody. It's hereditary. Thanks gramps!

 

[actually]

@drgnkiller -- he confirmed in chat at recently that his property taxes are included in his monthly mortgage payments. This squares with how my mortgage is set up as well. The $2k was just him being lazy and arbitrary while trying to squeeze a few more dollars from his mouthbreathing fans.

 

[Raven'sChild]

This is some :autism: back-of-the-envelope calculating, but let's say Dave makes 80k/yr. That would put him in the 2017 marginal tax bracket of 25%. This 4k is supposedly above what he normally pays, meaning all of the 4k would be taxed at 25%. That means he made an extra 16k last year that's he's now having to pay taxes on. 16k/yr is about $7.84 for a normal, full-time, 40 hr per week job. If he can claim a large portion of his income on Da Business™, then that number goes up even higher.

That dumb motherfucker made a whole minimum wage job more than he did last yr, but still begs his 20-something yo fans (who probably don't make much more than that) for even more money to cover the extra money they ALL READY GAVE HIM!

I can't even feel bad for the people that still give him money. They're suckers falling for an obvious ruse, and if they weren't getting suckered by Dave, it would just be somebody else doing it to them.

Your numbers are not only plausible, but when compared with EddyB43's monthly Twitch income breakdown for 2017, they are right on the money.
Q1 ~$3,831
Q2 ~$6,556 ( a gain of ~$2,725 )
Q3 ~$11,815 ( a gain of ~$5,259 )
Q4 ~$20,039 ( a gain of ~$8,224 )
= ~$16,208 more than estimates based on Q1 earnings for the year
These numbers are based solely on income from Twitch. Each quarter he has seen a sizable jump in earnings, a jump I cannot imagine he included in his Quarterly estimates.

 

[James Smith]

Patreon for April:

• 7 added pledges totaling $24.94
• 11 removed pledged totaling $70.91
• 3 one-time pledges/pledge increases totaling 13.33

Estimated take-home $775.19

EDIT: I went and compared

<actual Patreon public facing amount, start of month>
+ <added pledge value>
- <removed pledge value>

and compared that to the public facing Patreon amount shown at the end of the month. I've been within 14% each month, and within 6% half the months. Being spot-on would be perfect, but I ignore certain things that look like normal fluctuations based on Patreon adjusting the public facing number to show changes from expected card transaction fees.

 

[Christopher Alyre Fleming]

@SoapQueen1 @actually @EddyB43 Would it possible for you guys to combine all your work & distill it down into a single monthly number? A number everyone can quickly & easily reference to say "This is what Phil makes minus whatever his YT income is" would be really helpful.

 

[James Smith]

@SoapQueen1 @actually @EddyB43 Would it possible for you guys to combine all your work & distill it down into a single monthly number? A number everyone can quickly & easily reference to say "This is what Phil makes minus whatever his YT income is" would be really helpful.

I don't track tips. I currently track changes to the public facing numbers on Patreon and infer how much money he gets at the beginning of the month. I attempt to ignore some of what I interpret as noise (for example modifications in the first few days of the month of less than $0.89 USD to the public facing pledge total, especially when I see no change to the amount of individual patrons when that modification occurs, because I believe these modifications represent changes in the real transaction fees Patreon has to pay to charge people compared to Patreon's previous estimate of what those transaction fees would be.) I do track the total sub count over time but I don't do anything further in regards to that. I don't track cheers.

So as to not speak for others, the following are only my assumptions:

I believe @EddyB43 applies a policy of tracking only the tips that get an on-screen notification, which means that for a time he didn't track tips below $2 and now doesn't track tips below $5. I don't believe he infers transaction fees based on the information he collects.

I believe both Eddy and @actually track subs as they are shared or shown in chat. They will miss subs that are not shared or shown in chat and I believe at least Eddy attempts to ignore subs that have already been shown in the chat. I believe they tracks cheers as they occur and their information there should be essentially perfect.

 

[EddyB43]

Since I'm not scraping Patreon regularly like @SoapQueen1 I don't talk about that & leave it alone. One thing we have to remember is DSP's insistence that the public facing Patreon number is 'wrong', some algorithmic confusion over getting a bunch of declined 'fake' pledges & then transitioning to upfront charging. This means DSP could be receiving a couple hundred dollars more than it appears.
Up to mid 2017 the goal was set to $1025 accounting for a $225 'error' by Patreon, then one month (June 2017) when it hit ~$1150 DSP claimed he only barely got $1250 so he raised it to $1125, now just a $125 'error'. For the rest of 2017 I'd argue he didn't hit the Patreon goal at all, since it was only reached by random large ($50, $100+) pledges that were quickly pulled. December 2017 he did hit the base goal, but not the '$2000' (actually $2125 if you consider his error adjustment, an extra $875) stretch goal except when he decided tips beyond $2K during the December 30th fundraisers would count towards it... at which point a $450 tip comes in, DSP claims from the same person who tipped $1K earlier in that 2nd stream, which was enough to 'hit' that goal.

Are Patreon incompetent enough to have fucked this up? Perhaps. But it's also possible that DSP saw $1250 becoming unattainable & 'justified' lowering it by blaming an 'error'.

Tips I only track the visible ones, since those are more trustworthy than DSP's word, plus it's easy for me to document with a screencap. Before February 2018 I did track some audio only tips, but since I was only listening to prestreams & big vlogs (Hate Live, Ask the King) I missed the vast majority in gameplay anyway. February 2018 is also when he set the visible notification minimum to $5 to try & avoid spammed $2+ tips that get chargebacks he has to waste time dealing with. In my opinion this makes no sense, such a troll can attempt the chargebacks for these unseen tips anyway, still wasting his time.
SoapQueen originally tried to do tips by audio & quickly gave up, consider this: you'd have to listen through up to 7+ hours of audio for an average double stream day (taking out breaks etc. when DSP isn't talking), you can't trust speech to text to catch them and even at double speed that's well over 3 hours to listen through.

Tips, correct I don't try to calculate transaction fees, or how much he'd have to 'give up' in taxes. I also have no idea if Twitch still charges some form of transaction fee for his monthly cheers+subs+ad revenue payments, as a partner they're not supposed to but we have no clue. Consider it an example of just how much money is thrown at DSP rather than what he truly receives.

Subs, my understanding was a sub had to be shared manually since late May 2017, unfortunately I can't find a Twitch article confirming this. Thus my numbers & actually's are way down. Good examples are January 2018 where DSP claimed 564 subs & Nightbot claimed 563 subs as a peak... yet I only tracked 415. April 2018 where DSP peaked at around 460 subs, I only tracked 331 subs - both roughly 70-75% of the peaks. I do remove duplicate reshares - if I see the same userID share the same tier sub for the same number of months within the same calendar month, I ignore the followups. For January 2018 this was just 3 subs, in April 2018 it was 5 subs. This does mean if someone shares a sub on May 31st & again on June 1st I'll miss it & count it, so it's not exact.
Gifted subs seem to be automatically shared no matter what, so at least we're not missing any of those since the feature launched in November 2017.

Cheers are the closest to an accurate number, since they have to be sent in chat. Only cons are if you try to use public or plain logs of just the messages, it's possible to send 'cheer100' but not have the bits & so it didn't count. actually now follows the same raw logging logic as I do, and he automates the calculating of subs & cheers from this - it's quick & easy. The only lengthy part of this for me is the tips.

 

[actually]

Are Patreon incompetent enough to have fucked this up? Perhaps. But it's also possible that DSP saw $1250 becoming unattainable & 'justified' lowering it by blaming an 'error'.

A quick note on this. Patreon made a change to the forward-facing numbers by taking into account the fees they charge and Paypal or whoever charges. DSP is either a lying asshole or an idiot, but it boils down to this:

If Phil sets the Patreon goal on his dashboard as $1250, the FORWARD facing number will be $1125, because Patreon will automatically take in to account their 5% fee and an assumed 5% from transferring the money out via Paypal. In short ($1250 * 0.9 = $1125). But Phil continued to talk about the $1250 number b/c he's a dipshit.

As for combining numbers and posting it somewhere (here?), I'm fine with doing that. Maybe @EddyB43 , @SoapQueen1 , and I can continue to post as normal in the main thread, and @SoapQueen1 could synthesize the data (or just use @EddyB43 's since he tracks tips, cheers, and subs and supplement with stuff like decapi-reported subs from mine and the best-tracked Patreon amount) into a single month-end post in this thread?

 

[James Smith]

Yeah I think it'd be best to come to a ballpark condense at the beginning of each month to document what he seemed to make for the previous month.

 

[Christopher Alyre Fleming]

Yeah I think it'd be best to come to a ballpark condense at the beginning of each month to document what he seemed to make for the previous month.

@SoapQueen1 @actually @EddyB43 Thanks for the in depth responses guys & thanks for taking my suggestion under consideration. I understand none of this can be exact, except with the possibility of cheers. Still, a ballpark figure would be helpful.

As you have noticed I'm sure, the estimates of dsp's income by people in this subforum varies widely. Maybe this can help us nail down a more informed projection.

 

[gobbogobb]

To be informed you need his CPM from YouTube. No one has that except for Phil, YouTube and Curse. None of those are gonna give you an honest answer.

 

[actually]

To be informed you need his CPM from YouTube. No one has that except for Phil, YouTube and Curse. None of those are gonna give you an honest answer.

Of course, but we can get a ballpark estimate based on Phil's "Youtube was 1% better than Twitch in 2017" comment. His Twitch amount was ~$41k (minimum), so his Youtube was around $42k or so. Socialblade says he had ~21.7M views on dspgaming for 2017, so that comes out to an average CPM of ~$2 ($1.94). That, to me, seems more than a little high, but we can put a range on it of $1-2 for our estimates.

 

[gobbogobb]

Of course, but we can get a ballpark estimate based on Phil's "Youtube was 1% better than Twitch in 2017" comment. His Twitch amount was ~$41k (minimum), so his Youtube was around $42k or so. Socialblade says he had ~21.7M views on dspgaming for 2017, so that comes out to an average CPM of ~$2 ($1.94). That, to me, seems more than a little high, but we can put a range on it of $1-2 for our estimates.

You're assuming Phil's not a liar. That's a huge leap of faith.

 

[actually]

You're assuming Phil's not a liar. That's a huge leap of faith.

Of course. He's also generally shit at math. But for a ballpark estimate, it works. And that ~$100k that resulted from combining youtube, twitch, and patreon amounts matched up reasonably well with the tax amounts he slipped up and mentioned and whatnot.

 

[gobbogobb]

That's probably the closest to honest he's been about finances. Not saying much though. I'd probably put him at about 85-95 gross per year and trending towards 70-80 this year. He's scared.

 

[JMR]

There were several posts in the main thread the past week about Phil stating he had only $1K in credit remaining before the plumber's visit. It makes me wonder just how over-extended he is in terms of credit card debt.

It's one thing to have a single card with a credit line of $2500 and carry a $1500 balance, leaving $1000 available. It's another to have multiple cards, a total credit line of $25,000 and $24,000 total utilization. (Just throwing out numbers.)

Seeing how bad his financial decision-making is and how slow he is to pay down principals (see condo in CT), it feels like he'd just be paying miminums on his cards and letting that interest compound.

 

[JamFlowMan]

There were several posts in the main thread the past week about Phil stating he had only $1K in credit remaining before the plumber's visit. It makes me wonder just how over-extended he is in terms of credit card debt.

It's one thing to have a single card with a credit line of $2500 and carry a $1500 balance, leaving $1000 available. It's another to have multiple cards, a total credit line of $25,000 and $24,000 total utilization. (Just throwing out numbers.)

Seeing how bad his financial decision-making is and how slow he is to pay down principals (see condo in CT), it feels like he'd just be paying miminums on his cards and letting that interest compound.

I always assumed whenever Phil says he bought something it was put on credit. He hasn't brought it up to ruin his newest con but he said he paid his taxes with a credit card before. Paying his bills with credit is up in the air depending on if you believe his overdraft worries at the beginning on each month. The way he says "I don't know if i'll have enough to cover my bills" is either a lie or he is too lazy/stupid to add up his bills to know what he needs to cover them. Considering he only found out how much his cable bill was last year and he paid Leanna's phone bill months after the breakup the bills could very well go right in the shredder while Phil crosses his fingers hoping everything works out.

 

[James Smith]

This may indeed be the month my estimate of DSP's takeaway drops below $700. One more day for someone to opt out.

 

[James Smith]

@actually Are you tracking on-screen tip notifications at the moment?

 

[actually]

@actually Are you tracking on-screen tip notifications at the moment?

For the first couple this month, I've gone through and spot-checked for tips, and I think I caught all the major ones (>$5) as well as some smaller ones. So far for the 2 SF Anniversary streams, there's been the on-screen top tip bit, so I used that plus video preview scans (moving along the progress bar) to check for on-screen notifications. I'm not listening to audio at all, except for prestream (or pulling captions--have figured out what words to look for there aside from "tip" and "$" that get mistranslated). I wouldn't be opposed to some help in tracking tips as I have no intention of listening to and/or watching every single video Phil shits out.