Star Wars Griefing Thread (SPOILERS) - Safety off

[Ihavetinyweewee]

I disagree. I think the trailer could be Hux and Kylo Ren sticking dildos up each other's butts and the Faithful would still shell out for it. Star Wars is much more popular than Star Trek has ever been. Last chance to see Carrie Fisher spliced shamlessly into a movie and so forth. Don't underestimate the power of the Force Nostalgia.

If that was the case, Solo would have succeded. I'm not saying you're wrong, per se, but hardcore fans aren't going to be enough.

The movie has to be somewhat entertaining to get the interest of the normies..

 

[Ghostse]

I think a lot of the final Box Office is going to come to what its running against and how long until a competitor knocks it out. Its going to take #1 opening week. The only way it doesn't for-sure take #1 is if Sony has a black-ops SpiderMan film in the can that no one is aware of.
And that will depend on how much blood the other studios smell in the water. You don't want to put out anything to get walluped by starwars, but given TLJ's short time at time at the top, other studios might be getting some heavier stuff to try to go after the king mouse.

 

[Ihavetinyweewee]

The film's official poster features a children's toy. Do you have any doubts?

Let's be fair, its an underwhelming teaser poster. I don't really care about them superimposing a toy. Its funny, but nothing more than that to me...

I think a lot of the final Box Office is going to come to what its running against and how long until a competitor knocks it out.

Right, but outside of Jumanji, there isn't much. I think they can coexist if their both decent...

 

[Elwood P. Dowd]

If that was the case, Solo would have succeded. I'm not saying you're wrong, per se, but hardcore fans aren't going to be enough.

The movie has to be somewhat entertaining to get the interest of the normies..

I guess. But I've also kind of come around on the whole May vs. December release thing. At first I thought it was dogshit, but now I think there's something to twenty first century audiences expecting December Star Wars releases. How much better Solo would have done with a December release is anybody's guess, but I don't see how anyone can say it would not have.

I think a lot of the final Box Office is going to come to what its running against and how long until a competitor knocks it out.

There's nothing but Jumanji and that horrifyingly creepy Cats musical. I think Jumanji will do well, but can't see it doing better than Retread of the Skywalker, at least in North America. And who is gonna see Cats? Yeeesh.

 

[Polyboros2]

My prediction about Dark Rey, is that it's Kylo's motivation. His Oracle vision is that Rey will fall to the dark side and completely surpass him, and his struggle is to stop her fall for completely selfish reasons.

Complete and unironic, "We got to keep the whores out of the Dark Side”, #Sithgate.

 

[Ihavetinyweewee]

My prediction about Dark Rey, is that it's Kylo's motivation. His Oracle vision is that Rey will fall to the dark side and completely surpass him, and his struggle is to stop her fall for completely selfish reasons.

Complete and unironic, "We got to keep the whores out of the Dark Side”, #Sithgate.

Its a vision of some sort, I assume...

Ethics in darkside holocrons?

 

[HeyYou]

It's weird to see normal Star Destroyers again. I mean, I prefer their design over the new stuff. But if it isn't time travel and it's Palps's secret fleet or some shit they really are completely out of ideas.

Evil Rey and Vader's breath aren't going to actually matter, I do know that.

 

[Creep3r]

Which is why I still think this turkey clucks its way to over a billion dollars at the box office, maybe even reaching TLJ numbers. There's enough fans out there with nostalgia for this in the USA, Canada, Western Europe, Australia, NZ and Japan to get it to that level. Despite dying in every other market, which it will, this should be enough to get to that level.

Star Wars is basically a Stuff White People Like (or honorary white people w/Japan) circle jerk at this point. And even with WiPePo they're seem to be losing the youth demographic. (How many kids wear Star Wars Halloween costumes these days?)

Also, still pisses me off we can't abbreviate this thing. RotS is Revenge of the Sith, not Rise of the Skywalker. Not sure if it is weird that that bugs me, but it does.

Even with what I've said before, there's still a chance it might break a billion depending on the factors at hand, but I doubt it'll beat TLJ and I'm still open to the idea of it underperforming or horribly underperforming. Just gonna post some box office numbers about TFA, RO, TLJ and Solo for comparison and because I think its interesting.

TFA grossed $2,068,223,624 worldwide. Half of that ($936,662,225) came from the US alone. While the other half ($1,131,561,399) came from foreign markets. The biggest sources of foreign cash being (in order of highest gross to lowest) the UK, Germany, China, Japan, France and Australia, with the first three coughing up over $100mil, with the UK in particular coughing up $163mil, Japan coughing up $97mil, France $88mil and Australia $67mil. Meanwhile the rest of the world gave less than 30mil or less than 5mil. All in all, no other country gave as much money to the film as the US. Now we divide said profit up by 2, since at least half of the profit (technically more than that but we'll just stick with 2 for convenience) has to go to the distributors, cinemas, foreign distributors and tariffs, making the actual profit for the film something around or less than $1,034,111,812.

RO was also able to break 1 billion ($1,056,057,273), with half coming from the US and the other half from foreign markets. Much like TFA, the majority of the film's gross came from the US ($523,879,949) while other individual countries gave less than 40mil (minority) or 9mil (majority), except two countries, the UK and China, with the UK coughing up $81,432,097 and China coughing up $69,484,899. Now we divide the profit of the film by 2 for those pesky fees, which leaves the actual gross at $528,028,637.

Then comes TLJ with a gross of $1,332,539,889 worldwide. A drop of $735,683,735 from TFA but an increase of $276,482,616 from RO. Much like with TFA, around half of the budget came from the US ($620,181,382), while the other half came from foreign markets ($712,358,507), a noticeable drop of around 300mil in both areas when compared to TFA. China has lost interest by this point, coughing up only $42mil initially which was then followed by a drastic drop in interest in the following weeks of the film's release. Many other countries saw a notable dip with most giving around only 10mil or around 1mil. But like with TFA, the biggest sources of cash were once again (in order of highest to lowest) the UK ($111mil), Germany ($83mil), Japan ($66mil) and France ($64mil). But all of this pales to the amount given by the US which once again was the biggest cashflow for the film. Now we divide, leaving the actual profit at around or less than $666,269,945.

Finally, here's Solo with a gross of $392,924,807, the second most pisspoor performance of any SW after the Filoni Wars movie from 2008. The US was the largest source of cash at only $213,767,512, an extremely drastic drop from previous films despite always being the biggest source of cash. Individual countries in the foreign market all gave less than 20mil (minority) and 4mil (majority). The UK was once again the biggest source of cash but only at $25,840,047. And the usually recurring Japan coughed up only $18mil. Germany was once again #3, but only at $17mil. China gave $16mil. France barely even bothered this time, barely breaking $10mil. Since the film didn't even break 800mil, it doesn't need to give much to distributors and whatnot.

In short, the biggest and most consistent source of cash has been the US, UK, Germany and Japan. China's casual audiences never gave a shit when compared to Avengers or Disney's shitty remakes. However, there is an SW community in China, but they're like D&D or Trekkies fans who, despite being a large community of their own, their interests aren't really popular with the Zhengchang of China (normalfag in Chinese apparently) and their interests only occasionally align when its trending, much like with Trek. Casual audiences didn't like Finn (and later Rose) and they didn't really find much appeal to the new movies for various reasons, and the SW cliques over there didn't really care for TFA nor Disney's new characters due to mostly being old school fans.

For those interested in finding out more about what Chinese SW nerds do all day, here's a link:

苦涩的新正史最佳小说——《索龙》新三部曲读书笔记 - 综合讨论区 - 星球大战中文网 Star Wars China - Powered by Discuz!

星球大战论坛以研究和普及星球大战文化为己任，是中国大陆最专业、华语圈内具影响的星球大战中文网站，内容涉及星战电影、星战动漫、星战小说、星战游戏和星战玩具等。 ,星球大战中文网 Star Wars China

www.starwarschina.com

Most of what they do is shitpost and complain about Disney. This thread in particular is one where they analyze and review the new Disney books. In short, from what I can tell, they're saying they enjoyed the new Thrawn books but that they are pretty unfulfilling when compared to the original Thrawn books. They also talk about the "bitterness" and shittiness of the new Disney EU, particularly the "Wendy trilogy" (Chuck Wendig) which are a "slag" (渣), and that Disney's new media doesn't live up to the old, calling it a "History of Bitterness". Discussions about Disney stuff usually get zero replies: http://www.starwarschina.com/thread-45374-1-1.html Apparently it seems to have killed activity a bit due to how rampant it is. In the end, Disney failed to attract Chinese SW fans because they wanted EU movies.

Anyway, if the US doesn't give even half of what it usually does (and it might not considering they went from 900mil to 600mil to just 200mil) then this movie is screwed and no amount of foreign aid can save it. At best I can see the US (if there's no boycott or too much indifference) giving as much as 300mill or close to 400mil, but if something unexpected like say a beloved actor dies or some big "hype" is revealed, then this movie might make 500mil or more in the US.

 

[qu_rahn]

Teasing a double bladed lightsaber when Rey only actually uses the Anakin Skywalker lightsaber in the movie

Jesus they are so fucking dumb. Give her a yellow/purple/whatever saber staff already...it would look dope and they would sell a shitload of toys

 

[Dixieland Buckaroo]

The Star Destroyers are giving me flashbacks to the Katana fleet from the original Thrawn trilogy. I know, different class of ships, but principle feels the same- oh look, crazy buncha ships gonna change the balance of power (with clones and everything).

 

[HeyYou]

The Star Destroyers are giving me flashbacks to the Katana fleet from the original Thrawn trilogy. I know, different class of ships, but principle feels the same- oh look, crazy buncha ships gonna change the balance of power (with clones and everything).

You know, I actually wish it was the Katana fleet. We'd finally get to see Dreadnaughts on screen. As far as I know they're actually canon, but they do have some new faggy name instead of Dreadnaught-class.

The leak on 4chan isn't looking too accurate. The actors are straight up saying Palpatine is directly in this movie, and a few shots from that trailer don't quite match up with the tone that leaker was claiming the movie has.

 

[Immortal Technique]

What a boring ass trailer. This won't be enticing for normies. I fall into the normal fag class myself (when it comes to SW) and just like watching movies--there was nothing in this trailer that makes me wanna pay money to see it.

 

[FlightOfTheBumbleBee]

That's not how Disney Wars works. Everything is Canon in their warped view no matter how small or insignificant it is and there's no room for retcons unless it happens in-universe, like bringing back Ahsoka's ass. We've posted info about this in the thread before and Disney even published their shitty official (cinematic) timeline at D23 which includes that shitty kids cartoon. And bringing back Maul as a cheap cameo character doesn't fix Disney's bs. It'd just be cheap nostalgia bait like bringing back the Emperor, which they only did after they realized they had no major villain left after killing off that gold pussy Snoke. It hardly fixes TFA's and especially TLJ's shortcomings. Another issue is that Maul's return in Solo wasn't indicative of an appearance in IX, its that originally Solo was supposed to be its own trilogy, with Maul serving as its main antagonist, but after Solo flopped at the box office, they cancelled the trilogy, effectively nullifying Maul's relevance. Although I'd be all for them bringing back Maul for this movie. It would be hilarious seeing how they try to make that work.

You make good points, but I still think that the catastrophes of recent years will be enough to change Disney's attitude about canon. Disney executives don't care about the fact that Maul died in the cartoon. Maul is one of the only "cool" characters who they could bring back at this point. Maybe now that Solo is dead, Disney will refashion Maul into Episode IX. And it's kind of fitting that the Skywalker saga ends as it began, right? Maul was present in Phantom menace and now he will be in IX. It's like poetry it rhymes.

 

[Iceland Heavy]

The Star Destroyers are giving me flashbacks to the Katana fleet from the original Thrawn trilogy. I know, different class of ships, but principle feels the same- oh look, crazy buncha ships gonna change the balance of power (with clones and everything).

After all this time all we get is a really lame, diluted mishmash of that and Dark Empire. Anyone who still thinks Disney could churn out a better EU than the EU is a complete shill or straight up delusional at this point.

You know, I actually wish it was the Katana fleet. We'd finally get to see Dreadnaughts on screen. As far as I know they're actually canon, but they do have some new faggy name instead of Dreadnaught-class.

The leak on 4chan isn't looking too accurate. The actors are straight up saying Palpatine is directly in this movie, and a few shots from that trailer don't quite match up with the tone that leaker was claiming the movie has.

Yeah they showed up in the background of Rebels and are just called the 'Imperial Support Vessel'. Like all good things Filoni actually managed to bring back they only existed to get rolled over by hyperspace whales.

 

[Ghostse]

Right, but outside of Jumanji, there isn't much. I think they can coexist if their both decent...

I guess. But I've also kind of come around on the whole May vs. December release thing. At first I thought it was dogshit, but now I think there's something to twenty first century audiences expecting December Star Wars releases. How much better Solo would have done with a December release is anybody's guess, but I don't see how anyone can say it would not have.



There's nothing but Jumanji and that horrifyingly creepy Cats musical. I think Jumanji will do well, but can't see it doing better than Retread of the Skywalker, at least in North America. And who is gonna see Cats? Yeeesh.

The last weeks December release is usually a hug BO spike, because the theater is a good place to dump the kids who are out of school while you last minute shopping & returns. Its also a decent thing to do when you're visiting relatives in Bumfuck, and there's always a movie theater around to keep you from being bored out of your skulls.

Let me put a little finer point on the blood in the water:
Warning: Long, Gay. Also Math.

Its not a great idea to let an "overall" box office influence performance too much, since that is affected by factors outside a single movie, but it gives you an idea of comparative audiences. So For 3rd & 4th week in december-
In 2015, TFA rode the #1 slot on the last two weeks of year, each week taking about ~500 million .
In 2016, Rogue One took a ~350m & ~450m box office.
In 2017 TLJ sat on top of a 400m and 467m box office.
In 2018, the first year since 2014 the top slot wasn't a SW films, the Aquaman sat ontop of a 400m and 350m BO.

What this 'sperging here shows is that 3rd & 4th week in December does about 350-450 million; TFA well exceeded 'normal' and TLJ did as well. And while, as I said, there are other factors to consider, we're at least comparing Apples to Apples here.

What's more interesting is to look at how much of that BO they captured, long term performance, and what knocked them out.
TFA ran for 24 weeks. Almost half a year. It ran for 16 weeks before the BO take was under a million. Its opening week it took in $390 million. That is almost 80% of the box office. The next week it took in $260 million; still over half. After 3 weeks it got knocked out by Fox's the Renevant, an oscar-bait action/western, it spent two weeks in "limited release" (aka Critics in friendly markets to build good press) and took the top slot of a 213 million dollar BO.

RO ran for 20 weeks; not too shabby for a B-side. It took 10 weeks for BO to drop under a million. Open week was 220 Million - a little less than 2/3rds. Next week was 150million, or about 1/3 of the total take. After 3 weeks it also got knocked out of #1 by Fox's Hidden Figures. Hidden Figures, also an oscar bait film full of half truths and outright fabrications masquerading at history historical drama also did the two week limited release thing, and took the top slot of a $200 million BO.

Now pay attention to this part:
TLJ ran for 18 weeks. It took 9 weeks for the BO to drop under a million. First week, it took in 300 million, about 3/4th of the BO. NExt week it took in 168m, about 1/3 of the box office. What's interesting to note here is that box office grew by about 25%, but total take dropped as fast as the B-side RO. But here's a real teller: TLJ was knocked out after two weeks by Jumanji, A decidely non-oscar bait action/adventure film that it had beat the week before, on a $340 million BO.

(For comparison: in 2018 Aquaman ran 15 weeks, took 10 weeks to drop under a mil, lost #1 on a 175 million BO to The Upside, an oscar-bait American remake of a French opposites-realize-their-commonality Drama Film. Its first two full-release weeks took about 1/3 and 1/4 of the box office, respectively)

What does this mean:
The mouse is bleeding. SW isn't insurmountable, and is vulnerable to a strong, fun film - likely why Sony is running Jumanji II against it. They are likely hoping for a repeat of 2017 where it will drink a lot of Disney's milkshake and give people disappointed by Star Woke a light-hearted, family-friendly action/adventure.
I don't know WTF they are thinking with Cats - any by that I mean "in general" not just specifically running it against SW.

TLJ will take #1 its first week, but looks like Sony is trying to turn that into a pyrrhic victory.

 

[HeyYou]

Yeah they showed up in the background of Rebels and are just called the 'Imperial Support Vessel'. Like all good things Filoni actually managed to bring back they only existed to get rolled over by hyperspace whales.

Like Pellaeon being canonized, but instead of getting to lead the Imperial Remnant we got the First Order and Snoke instead.

 

[Adamska]

I disagree. I think the trailer could be Hux and Kylo Ren sticking dildos up each other's butts and the Faithful would still shell out for it. Star Wars is much more popular than Star Trek has ever been. Last chance to see Carrie Fisher spliced shamlessly into a movie and so forth. Don't underestimate the power of the Force Nostalgia.

I can given that Beyond did this and failed horribly due to Into Darkness. Just as dedicated a fanbase dude; until the numbers come out, I'm still going with my 700 mil - 900 mil guess because there's also Frozen 2, Jumanji 2, and even the dumpsterfire of Jurassic World 3 out at around those times.

It's more crowded with mediocrity lightning rods than usual.

 

[Notgoodwithusernames]

It's weird to see normal Star Destroyers again. I mean, I prefer their design over the new stuff. But if it isn't time travel and it's Palps's secret fleet or some shit they really are completely out of ideas.

Evil Rey and Vader's breath aren't going to actually matter, I do know that.

In my opinion the FO fleet should have been a mush mash of ships. Mainly CIS and GAR stuff with some smaller imperial era craft (anything between a corvette and a heavy cruiser) with a couple dozen victory and imperial class star destroyers and one or two dreadnoughts in the mix

 

[AnotherPleb]

Teasing a double bladed lightsaber when Rey only actually uses the Anakin Skywalker lightsaber in the movie

Jesus they are so fucking dumb. Give her a yellow/purple/whatever saber staff already...it would look dope and they would sell a shitload of toys

That would be a move someone could get hyped about, and Disney Wars is the cinematic Anti-Hype Equation.

 

[HeyYou]

In my opinion the FO fleet should have been a mush mash of ships. Mainly CIS and GAR stuff with some smaller imperial era craft (anything between a corvette and a heavy cruiser) with a couple dozen victory and imperial class star destroyers and one or two dreadnoughts in the mix

We all know that nothing beyond Star Destroyers even exists, come on dude. Just make a fleet of 1000 of them and call it a day. Maybe include a big bad Super Star Destroyer. Don't even include Victory-class Star Destroyers, which are canon, because they just don't matter.

On an unrelated tangent, Leland Chee is my man. I didn't even know he was still working on Star Wars after the acquisition because he's so chill about it compared to some other unnamed "canon overseers".