My predictions are as follows: Deval Patrick and Bloomberg, if he even runs, do not make splashes in the primaries. Castro is out before the end of this month, having failed to make the debate but there is little incentive for the others to leave. Harris has already given up but, as a point of pride, probably stays in until Iowa. I wouldn't expect the debates to be memorable from here on out. Maybe Biden cracks under pressure again, but it doesn't really matter, as I lay out below. The surging candidates, Buttegieg and Warren, are both great public speakers and will escape without issue.
Iowa sees Warren surge as it becomes obvious that Bernie is not the man of the moment and she fights it out with Buttegieg. I haven't a clue who wins but those are the top two, Biden and Bernie trail them, followed by the joke candidates, Yang and Gabbard, and then Klobachar. Everyone else is an asterisk. Having failed to win at their chosen state, Harris, Klobachar, Bennett and Bullock drop out.
New Hampshire goes for Warren, followed by Butttegieg and Bernie, Biden behind them. Booker drops out, if he hasn't already. So does Delaney, but, you know, whatever. Biden does not drop out, citing his good numbers in Nevada, SC and the country at large. Bernie, however, does drop out-this was always going to be an uphill battle for him, and having failed to win in NH its obvious he won't be winning anywhere else either. He endorses Warren, and most of his followers go along with it. A Guiliani-esque media bombardment of "how can he possibly win" occurs during the the week and a half long period between NH and NV, causing his support to fall apart. Warren wins that state and Biden finally drops out.
During this cycle, SC is hardly different from Super Tuesday, they only get to go a three days early. It should, in theory, be a state that Patrick could campaign for, but he's not going to be winning it even if Warren and Buttegieg aren't perfect candidates. Who even knows which one of them wins it. Super Tuesday itself is largely southern states, the midwest, northwest and most of the northeast are voting later on. The exceptions? California, Colorado, Utah, Massachusetts, Maine, Vermont and Minnesota. Texas and Oklahoma too, if you do not consider them southern. I do think that Patrick picks up a little bit of the black vote- but not much, and he wins no states, Bloomberg, if he gets in, will have limited appeal too- might win Oklahoma, Virginia, Utah, North Carolina. But those are all just as likely to be Buttegieg states in my mind. I think that Warren's populist message prevails out west, so Cali and Colorado, maybe Utah. She should also win her home state, Vermont and Maine. I could see the south (including TX) go for Pete, I could see it go for Liz. If its the former then we are in for a race, if its the later then its game over. Having said that, I do not think the party is in the mood for moderation and most of the parts of the country which haven't voted yet should favor Warren.
There won't be anything close to a fight at the convention. Well, not over who the nominee should be anyway, there will be discussions in regards to the platform and they will be establishment versus "Squad" types over things like Israel, income inequality, fracking, etc. Warren, in preparation for the general election, starts walking back or "a long way off"ing her health care proposals and anything else that is white vote kryptonite. Warren nominates an establishment centrist, such as Corey Booker or Roy Cooper or, if she wants to get under people's skin, Gretchen Whitmer. I'll tell you who it won't be is Stacey Abrams or Kamala Harris (Abrams a liability on the ticket and Harris would decline since VP is a step down from Senator from California.)
Off in Elephantland.... the Senate does not convict or remove Trump, in the final vote one person defects from each side, (Mitt Romney and Doug Jones, for those curious) but it does not become a political noose for the Donald due to overreach on the Democratic side, like claiming that Trump was taking bribes, as opposed to giving them. While this is happening actual governing is going on, including the "failure" to agree to a trade deal with China, more attempts to reform/restore immigration policy, the end of DACA by way of SCOTUS, signing of the USMCA/"new NAFTA" and somehow the passing of a new budget. Trump has to accept losses on the budget front, because of this year's debacle. Economy does not go into recession/collapse. Oh, and Trump goes all in on identity politics, making a regular foe of the so-called Squad and the CBC.
Just a quick aside here, multiple arrests will be made of people planning violent events, not all from the right either, though thats what will be in the news a lot. It will be a bat to hit Trump with, especially in regards to the upper-class suburban vote. I don't think I need to say it, but its going to be a hell of a fucking ride watching lol-cows in the run up to the election.
Shame for you all that Trump will not only get his ass handed to him in the popular vote but also lose the EC too though. And thats the rub folks, after four years of Trump's bullshit, faced with a candidate who actually will bother to attend at least one event in Wisconsin, with all of the money and media against him, Trump will be brought down and despite the close EC score it will not be particularly close in the additional states Trump would have needed. It will be 2012+Florida, Ohio and Iowa, maybe minus Arizona and Omaha but PA, MI, and WI will not be close, nor will places like NH, MN, ME, etc that Trump targeted last time. This will be obvious to pollsters due to how widespread the discontent is, but since they all cried Hillary last election it will be a genuine surprise to a genuinely surprising amount of people. During her victory speech, Warren alludes to Hillary having made cracks in the glass ceiling. Given that 2020 is the cycle right before a census too, this is doubly bad for the right, it won't be as bad as 2010 was for Democrats but it will still lead to a tough time winning the house for a decade to come. The saving grace? 10+ years of Democratic court rulings and referendum results at the state level that serve to limit the effects of gerrymandering and lock in so-called "fair" districts.
Oh, and if you thought that that's the end, you still have three months of lame-duck Trump to look forward too, when he gets to really go out and cut loose, freed from the constraints of polling or popular opinion. McConnell, seeing the end of the ride, goes all in on court nominations, its a steady churn, Trump's last 90 days result in way more than 90 vacancies being filled. Don't be surprised if he repeatedly claims the election was rigged, if he mandates federal land sales, if he, I don't know, pulls out of the defense pact with Korea, pardons every one of his lackeys who was convicted over the past 4 years, sues CNN over something patently ridiculous, etc.
