Trump Derangement Syndrome - Orange man bad. Read the OP! (ᴛʜɪs ᴛʜʀᴇᴀᴅ ɪs ʟɪᴋᴇ ᴋɪᴡɪ ғᴀʀᴍs ʀᴇᴠɪᴇᴡs ɴᴏᴡ) 🗿🗿🗿🗿

Please, explain to me how "birtherism" means he's "no angel".

Also, where in terms of angelicness does the fake Trump Russia collusionism fit? How about Trump is a secret Russian Assetism? Pretty fucking racist considering it's just because of his wife's ethnicity, eh? Ooh, is the constant clamoring for his tax returns considered "non angelic" in your eyes?

Sorry, but the entire bullshit coup campaign against Trump has relied on just repeating shit like that without basis.

There are a billion reasons to go after Obama and his birth cert aside from racism. The most obvious being, disagreement with his policies.
For his non angelicness, I was mostly referring to his cheating on his spouse, general philandering, etc. I'm trying to say that he's not a moral paragon beyond reproach. Birtherism and his eminent domain brush ups were easy examples of controversial things he has been involved with. As has been pointed out in the past, birtherism was a bit of ODS. I was just trying to get across (and failed obviously) that I'm honestly surprised that with all the digging, spying, etc that has been done on him that his opponents actually haven't found anything at all that they can stick to him. I'm not trying to claim that the dems are good angelic people, just stating that Trump certainly isn't either, and that one would expect the dems to have been able to dig up something they could use. But like I said previously, it's probably something passe and boring like cheating on his wife again.
 
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I hope that the MSM and the DNC--Sorry for repeating myself-- had all the fun that they could squeeze out of Robert Mueller's Collusion Circus, because there's only seconds left on the clock, now. The reason why we're suddenly even seeing CNN leap right out in front of this story just before Horowitz releases his report? People who are implicated in these reports are given a copy of the report with the portion that pertains to them. They're supposed to check it for accuracy, run it by their lawyers, yadda-yadda the point is that the report scared the shit out of people like Strzok and Comey and McCabe, and they immediately went sprinting to CNN to work on the spin.

That CNN article is preemptive damage control. The SpyGate plotters have, by now, read the sections of the report dealing with their actions and have given their responses back to Horowitz. Now they're leaking to CNN to spin what's coming. I'm anticipating that this is referring to Carter Page, but it could also be George Papadopoulos, Paul Manafort, or Lt. General Michael Flynn. If It's Flynn right out of the gate then I am going to lose my shit because that means it's go time.

But just how bad is it going to get in the next week or two? They might actually be forced to admit that Mifsud was one of theirs before the report drops. They've been trying endlessly to paint him as some Russian stooge for years now, but he's not. He's an FBI asset and he has been from the very first day.

I hope that trying to setup an innocent man to get Queen Hillary elected was worth it, Democrats. I hope that you had fun.
Lol what? You think Horowitz, of "nah Hillary, I won't subpoena anything, just turn over the servers you feel like when you can get around to it." fame is going to impugn anyone in a way that helps Trump? He's going to outline how top officials told him everything was fine and maybe some mistakes were made but none of consequence, case closed.

I wish I had your optimism here. Where the hell is it coming from though?

For his non angelicness, I was mostly referring to his cheating on his spouse, general philandering, etc. I'm trying to say that he's not a moral paragon beyond reproach. Birtherism and his eminent domain brush ups were easy examples of controversial things he has been involved with. As has been pointed out in the past, birtherism was a bit of ODS. I was just trying to get across (and failed obviously) that I'm honestly surprised that with all the digging, spying, etc that has been done on him that his opponents actually haven't found anything at all that they can stick to him. I'm not trying to claim that the dems are good angelic people, just stating that Trump certainly isn't either, and that one would expect the dems to have been able to dig up something they could use. But like I said previously, it's probably something passe and boring like cheating on his wife again.
Ah, I got you. Fair enough.

Some people act like the birther thing was so awful and terrible and racist, rather than typical political nonsense.

Yeah trump is far from perfect, the emminent domain stuff pisses me off too.
 
Lol what? You think Horowitz, of "nah Hillary, I won't subpoena anything, just turn over the servers you feel like when you can get around to it." fame is going to impugn anyone in a way that helps Trump? He's going to outline how top officials told him everything was fine and maybe some mistakes were made but none of consequence, case closed.

I wish I had your optimism here. Where the hell is it coming from though?

Pessimistically, I assume that nothing good will come of anything.

However, he did rush out McCabe's like a year and a half early to fuck him out of a pension, so maybe some mid-tier people will get it too.
 
Do I think Trump will win a majority of the black vote in 2020? Hell no. Not even a majority of the black male vote.

However, there are two possible situations involving the black vote that may help Trump and cause big trouble for the Dems:

1. Trump doesn't need the majority of the black vote; but if he can get just a little bit (like ~12% of it), then that's going to be a big problem for the Democrats.

2. Low black voter turnout (the more probable of the two situations, IMO). It's hard for the Dems to garner any excitement from their entire voting base so far in 2020, let alone the black voters. Why do you think the Dem candidates are trying to push the reparations thing so hard? Because they're worried about low black voter turnout.
 
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Lol what? You think Horowitz, of "nah Hillary, I won't subpoena anything, just turn over the servers you feel like when you can get around to it." fame is going to impugn anyone in a way that helps Trump? He's going to outline how top officials told him everything was fine and maybe some mistakes were made but none of consequence, case closed.

I wish I had your optimism here. Where the hell is it coming from though?
Because I know who Horowitz is, what he's capable of, and what he's already done. I'm not expecting Horowitz to run up and down the aisles slapping everyone in handcuffs because that's not his job. His job is to wrench information out of every single pocket he can find, and pass it along to the man whose job is to slap everyone in handcuffs.

Horowitz went to war against the Obama administration, and he won. Obama nominated Michael Horowitz in July of 2011 to fill a vacancy left open by the resignation of Glenn Fine. Horowitz was confirmed in March the following year, and sworn in on April 16th, 2012. Horowitz inherited a position that was effectively neutered in 2011 by Eric Holder's interpretation of § 6 of The Inspector General Act of 1978. (Authority of Inspector General)

Obama was incredibly fond of leaving vacancies in governmental bodies. You can't have a scandal if you have no oversight, and you can't have oversight if you completely hamstring their ability to investigate, after all. Holder and his legal team determined that the IG had to request information, rather than just being allowed access to it. This allowed Holder--and other agency heads--to bog down IG requests in bureaucratic red tape, and in some cases deny them outright. Who watches the watchmen? No one if you can just tell them to fuck off, apparently.

But what caused Holder to do that? What happened in 2011 that would cause an Attorney General to freak the fuck out, lock all the doors, and force oversight committees to request documents rather than allow them to simply access them? The ATF Gun-walking Scandal, a.k.a. Fast and Furious.

Horowitz' department was a lame duck on day one, so what did he do? He methodically went to war. You could even call it a war of independence, because that is exactly what it was. On March 5th, 2013 The Inspectors General prepared a report for Congress titled Open and Unimplemented IG Recommendations. This report drew attention to the stonewalling by focusing on the money being wasted, but it was much more than that. I don't have an archived version of the 2013 report, but here's the 2019 report if you want an example of what these reports contain.

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Horowitz laid the Obama Administration bare before Congress. These two charts from the report illustrated an administration that was wasting money at an alarming rate because they were ignoring the IG. Horowitz was laying the groundwork for an alliance with Congress, an alliance that would pay off in his quest for independence. He would supply them with information and appear at hearings to publicly make his case. Sort of an inside/outside approach.

For the remainder of 2013 the DOJ IG bid his time and did the best he could under the circumstances. But on April 3rd, 2014, at the end of the DOJ budget hearing, Horowitz came back to be the ceaseless thorn in Holder's side. What ensued was a series of questions that were budgetary in nature with the exception of the line of questioning pursued by Senator Shelby. Shelby is in the minority as Obama has not yet lost the Senate. Shelby's time is limited, but watch how both he and Horowitz work together. The foreshadowing was when Horowitz and Shelby reveal the legislative end game around 1:54:18.

August 5th, 2014. In an unprecedented letter to Congress, 47 IGs blasted the Obama administration for "serious limitations on access to records" that impedes their investigations, as other agencies were beginning to adopt Holder's position.
On September 4th Horowitz finally secured a Congressional oversight hearing for the Inspectors General, and then on September 10th, Horowitz released Obstructing Oversight: Concerns from the Inspectors General, the legal document of record where Michael Horowitz lays out his case against the Obama administration.

Horowitz details the obstruction of Holder that began with his investigation into Fast and Furious, and attaches his fight for independence to the will of Congress being subverted. Less than two weeks later the inside game begins to pay off when Issa introduces H.R.5492 - Inspector General Empowerment Act of 2014 as the 113th Congress winds down. It was a major victory for Mr. Horowitz in his war against the Obama Administration.

In November, Obama lost the Senate and the 114th Congress convened. Shortly thereafter on February 26th, 2015 Chuck Grassley introduced S.579 - Inspector General Empowerment Act of 2015. Hororowitz' alliance with both houses of Congress was now firmly cemented. On July 20th, 2015 the DOJ Office of Legal Counsel issued a ruling against the IG position. The OLC provided Holder and the Obama Administration with their initial legal argument. If you're in desperate need of a sleep aid, here's all 68 pages of this ass-tastically boring legalese horseshit.

On August 3rd, 2015 Michael Horowitz--who had firmly cemented these "inside game" alliances by now--had about had enough of this shit and brought down the full weight of the Inspectors General into the fray, blowing out the 68 pages of garbage with just 2.5 pages of legal argument that can be summarized as "I win, eat my ass, I'm the Inspector General. Bitch."

On August 12th, 2015 A confident Inspector General Horowitz took to the airwaves to publicly discuss the OLC ruling. (The outside game) On December 7th 20165, Jason Chaffetz introduces H.R.6450 - Inspector General Empowerment Act of 2016. Democrats in both houses concede and the bill swiftly passes on voice votes forcing a defeated, lame duck President Obama to sign it into law on December 16th, 2015.

Inspector General Horowitz waged a war of attrition and independence against a corrupt, administration that was refusing to be held accountable from day one. He forged an alliance with Congress, and using an inside/outside game went from an empty hearing room at a budget meeting to complete freedom for his department, cleaving it away from the limitations of the Attorney General, and telling every single one of these department heads to shut up and fork over their documents for proper oversight.

Horowitz won.
 
Because I know who Horowitz is, what he's capable of, and what he's already done. I'm not expecting Horowitz to run up and down the aisles slapping everyone in handcuffs because that's not his job. His job is to wrench information out of every single pocket he can find, and pass it along to the man whose job is to slap everyone in handcuffs.

Horowitz went to war against the Obama administration, and he won. Obama nominated Michael Horowitz in July of 2011 to fill a vacancy left open by the resignation of Glenn Fine. Horowitz was confirmed in March the following year, and sworn in on April 16th, 2012. Horowitz inherited a position that was effectively neutered in 2011 by Eric Holder's interpretation of § 6 of The Inspector General Act of 1978. (Authority of Inspector General)

Obama was incredibly fond of leaving vacancies in governmental bodies. You can't have a scandal if you have no oversight, and you can't have oversight if you completely hamstring their ability to investigate, after all. Holder and his legal team determined that the IG had to request information, rather than just being allowed access to it. This allowed Holder--and other agency heads--to bog down IG requests in bureaucratic red tape, and in some cases deny them outright. Who watches the watchmen? No one if you can just tell them to fuck off, apparently.

But what caused Holder to do that? What happened in 2011 that would cause an Attorney General to freak the fuck out, lock all the doors, and force oversight committees to request documents rather than allow them to simply access them? The ATF Gun-walking Scandal, a.k.a. Fast and Furious.

Horowitz' department was a lame duck on day one, so what did he do? He methodically went to war. You could even call it a war of independence, because that is exactly what it was. On March 5th, 2013 The Inspectors General prepared a report for Congress titled Open and Unimplemented IG Recommendations. This report drew attention to the stonewalling by focusing on the money being wasted, but it was much more than that. I don't have an archived version of the 2013 report, but here's the 2019 report if you want an example of what these reports contain.

View attachment 1025597 View attachment 1025598

Horowitz laid the Obama Administration bare before Congress. These two charts from the report illustrated an administration that was wasting money at an alarming rate because they were ignoring the IG. Horowitz was laying the groundwork for an alliance with Congress, an alliance that would pay off in his quest for independence. He would supply them with information and appear at hearings to publicly make his case. Sort of an inside/outside approach.

For the remainder of 2013 the DOJ IG bid his time and did the best he could under the circumstances. But on April 3rd, 2014, at the end of the DOJ budget hearing, Horowitz came back to be the ceaseless thorn in Holder's side. What ensued was a series of questions that were budgetary in nature with the exception of the line of questioning pursued by Senator Shelby. Shelby is in the minority as Obama has not yet lost the Senate. Shelby's time is limited, but watch how both he and Horowitz work together. The foreshadowing was when Horowitz and Shelby reveal the legislative end game around 1:54:18.

August 5th, 2014. In an unprecedented letter to Congress, 47 IGs blasted the Obama administration for "serious limitations on access to records" that impedes their investigations, as other agencies were beginning to adopt Holder's position.
On September 4th Horowitz finally secured a Congressional oversight hearing for the Inspectors General, and then on September 10th, Horowitz released Obstructing Oversight: Concerns from the Inspectors General, the legal document of record where Michael Horowitz lays out his case against the Obama administration.

Horowitz details the obstruction of Holder that began with his investigation into Fast and Furious, and attaches his fight for independence to the will of Congress being subverted. Less than two weeks later the inside game begins to pay off when Issa introduces H.R.5492 - Inspector General Empowerment Act of 2014 as the 113th Congress winds down. It was a major victory for Mr. Horowitz in his war against the Obama Administration.

In November, Obama lost the Senate and the 114th Congress convened. Shortly thereafter on February 26th, 2015 Chuck Grassley introduced S.579 - Inspector General Empowerment Act of 2015. Hororowitz' alliance with both houses of Congress was now firmly cemented. On July 20th, 2015 the DOJ Office of Legal Counsel issued a ruling against the IG position. The OLC provided Holder and the Obama Administration with their initial legal argument. If you're in desperate need of a sleep aid, here's all 68 pages of this ass-tastically boring legalese horseshit.

On August 3rd, 2015 Michael Horowitz--who had firmly cemented these "inside game" alliances by now--had about had enough of this shit and brought down the full weight of the Inspectors General into the fray, blowing out the 68 pages of garbage with just 2.5 pages of legal argument that can be summarized as "I win, eat my ass, I'm the Inspector General. Bitch."

On August 12th, 2015 A confident Inspector General Horowitz took to the airwaves to publicly discuss the OLC ruling. (The outside game) On December 7th 20165, Jason Chaffetz introduces H.R.6450 - Inspector General Empowerment Act of 2016. Democrats in both houses concede and the bill swiftly passes on voice votes forcing a defeated, lame duck President Obama to sign it into law on December 16th, 2015.

Inspector General Horowitz waged a war of attrition and independence against a corrupt, administration that was refusing to be held accountable from day one. He forged an alliance with Congress, and using an inside/outside game went from an empty hearing room at a budget meeting to complete freedom for his department, cleaving it away from the limitations of the Attorney General, and telling every single one of these department heads to shut up and fork over their documents for proper oversight.

Horowitz won.
Well that's certainly a perspective I haven't seen elsewhere, but...

He still let Hillary and the DNC off the hook.
Holder is not in any legal trouble.
He sat on additional Clinton emails until the FBI was busted hiding them.

Still, stuff like that is why I always look forward to your analysis. The idea that Horowitz might be supportive of the DNC in general but against the Obama administration is interesting. I was hoping you'd make me feel a little of the optimism you seem to have.

I'm sitting at about 25% "it's happening."

Of course, after this we have Durham, but that's probably years off, and the Dems will have opportunities to stop it in the meantime.
 
People saying that Trump lowering unemployment while increasing money to historically black colleges must inevitably improve his black voting share, please show us the breakdown during the 2018 midterms.

You are living a fantasy, I think. He simply cannot compete with free shit.

The problem is "free stuff" isn't really working - just look at any major Blue City (Chicago, Baltimore, Detroit, etc) and you'll see not a communist utopia, but instead hellholes where politicians have been lining thier pockets and conditions have gotten worse for 40+ years straight.

Democrats have had a stranglehold on the black vote for a while, but they've never actually done anything for them - not even Barack Obama gave a single fuck. It should be pretty easy for Trump to shake the tree just by pointing out (like he has) "look at these cities, what good are they actually doing for you?".

There's no way this strategy doesn't work out - either he'll pick up more of the black vote or Democrats will be forced to focus on Blacks in order to re-secure the vote, leaving them open in other areas.
 
The problem is "free stuff" isn't really working - just look at any major Blue City (Chicago, Baltimore, Detroit, etc) and you'll see not a communist utopia, but instead hellholes where politicians have been lining thier pockets and conditions have gotten worse for 40+ years straight.

Democrats have had a stranglehold on the black vote for a while, but they've never actually done anything for them - not even Barack Obama gave a single fuck. It should be pretty easy for Trump to shake the tree just by pointing out (like he has) "look at these cities, what good are they actually doing for you?".

There's no way this strategy doesn't work out - either he'll pick up more of the black vote or Democrats will be forced to focus on Blacks in order to re-secure the vote, leaving them open in other areas.

Agreed. I don't think Trump can sway the black vote completely, but he did do better with blacks in 2016 than any other Republican did in the previous elections. Granted, he still didn't break the double-digit mark, but even reaching 8% was surprising.

I think if Trump can play his cards right, he may hit the double digit mark of around 10-12% of the black vote, which is not much, but can tip the scales.

However, the far more likely scenario is that he's done well enough that a lot of black voters will stay home and not vote at all, which would go a long way in tanking the Democrats. Especially if someone like Warren ends up as the nominee, as she is banking heavily on both identity politics and more socialized policies.

Bloomberg is going to have a hard time convincing the black voters to not stay home given his stop and frisk policies and the fact he's basically a real-life Mr. Burns

Warren is the only one of the three viable candidates who could reliably get a better turnout from black voters, although Biden might do well if he banks on Obama nostalgia and somehow avoids any seriously egregious gaffes at the debates in 2020.
 
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Shades of Pauline Kael, film critic for the New Yorker and several other highly influential newspapers and magazines.

2019-11-26 13.58.13 en.wikipedia.org 77f238a64839.jpg


The reason it was so easy to believe Pauline Kael had said what she has been alleged to have said is because she lived and worked in a highly insular and exclusive club of elite opinion-makers. She probably was surprised Nixon won, and won in one of the largest electoral shellackings ever seen in the US. She and her peer group were clueless about Nixon's appeal. Nixon held no appeal for them, so how could he possibly appeal to anyone?

Ana Hispana-Panderer lives and works in a similar bubble. She doesn't know anyone who voted for Trump. She can't imagine how anyone could possibly have a positive view of President Trump, much less vote for him. She hand-waves away white approval rates of Trump by simply dismissing them all as racists. And she's hand-waving away black approval by simply denying it even exists. I bet she was just as surprised in 2016 as Pauline Kael was in 1972. And she's going to be just as surprised in 2020. And it will be delicious.
 
Well that's certainly a perspective I haven't seen elsewhere, but...

He still let Hillary and the DNC off the hook.
Holder is not in any legal trouble.
He sat on additional Clinton emails until the FBI was busted hiding them.

Still, stuff like that is why I always look forward to your analysis. The idea that Horowitz might be supportive of the DNC in general but against the Obama administration is interesting. I was hoping you'd make me feel a little of the optimism you seem to have.

I'm sitting at about 25% "it's happening."

Of course, after this we have Durham, but that's probably years off, and the Dems will have opportunities to stop it in the meantime.
Holding those against him misses out some context. Namely, while he might have enough dirt to hurt them, they have enough political capital to make it much harder, and much longer, than it might be worth. Not to mention the fact that those who oppose Hillary just... wind up suiciding a lot.

From a purely strategic point, while they might make tempting targets they also make BAD targets. The sheer time, effort, and risk in taking them down outweighs any actual benefit in the long run. It is much cheaper, easier, and more efficient to focus on carving out the rot that remains while stringing up a few easier but well known targets.
 
In Dem circles, birtherism = racism.
Nope; I always equated it to mental retardation, because his mother was still a US Civvy. By their logic, both he and McCain should be disbarred, since McCain was from Panama. And you have to love that that cunt Clinton created two autistic conspiracies for two sitting presidents because she's a mean and bitter old drunk who will die before ever being president.

Wouldn't be shocked though if others did think this stupid shit though.
 
Nope; I always equated it to mental exceptionalism, because his mother was still a US Civvy. By their logic, both he and McCain should be disbarred, since McCain was from Panama. And you have to love that that cunt Clinton created two autistic conspiracies for two sitting presidents because she's a mean and bitter old drunk who will die before ever being president.

Wouldn't be shocked though if others did think this stupid shit though.
Yeah, the narrative never did add up. If Obama couldn't be president then Romney double extra couldn't be president.

But the press didn't say "come on this is dumb". First they went with it, then claimed it was racist to take Obama at his word he was born in Kenya (in his official biography).

It takes about 10 seconds of explanation to show why birtherism was politically stupid and missed it's own point. The long and short is, even were Obama born in Kenya his American born, american citizen mother makes him a naturalized American citizen.
 
Because if this poll is accurate, then its over for the Dems. Done. Finit. Game, Set, Match. The GOP only needs a quarter of the black vote to shut out the Dems forever. If Trump manages to translate this to votes, then no Democrat candidate has a chance.
I can see the bloated whale's idea that the polls might be off, mainly because the polls she most likely looks at are so cooked I can put gravy on it. But I still think Trump has the record on Black voters at least liking his attempts to help them if not agreeing with his party's politics. My guess is they'll probably prefer staying home or swing back when it comes down to it, but if Trump did get those numbers...

Expect heavy screaming.
 
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