The problem is that people are still looking at the Cartel like they're organized crime. They're not. They are a full on revolutionary army in Mexico and the violence we see is akin to a civil war.
Mexico doesn't want to admit it, but it is a failed state. It can no longer enforce its laws or maintain any semblance of order. It has let the rot spread so fully it is eventually going to end up being a Narco state.
The simple fact of life is no American president is going to tolerate a Narco state or a failed state on its border that continues to kill its citizens with impunity.
So eventually it will lead to a war with the Narcos. One way or another. We're just dancing around the issue, but we are one Saint Valentine's Day Massacre away from getting sick of Narco trash and we fire up drone strikes.
The Mexican govt. needs to take a leaf out of the British and American playbooks and set up an off-the-books black ops fund. Use this to recruit groups and madmen to just go all-out war on the cartels. Assassinations, firebombings, crop destruction, whatever. The cartels hit back at anyone in the government who organizes against them so don't given them a target -> Finance ministry and the highest level work together to squirrel away a few billion and set up a secure and near-faceless system of handlers for the mercs and madmen.
Hell, open it up to low-level cartel members themselves and let them ice rivals for government dollars.
Chicago had problems like this - they created the "untouchables". A group funded outside the normal hierarchy who were just told "take these guys (Capone) off the table". Create a "kill list" of cartel members also. Post bounties. But the key part is that everything is off the books.
I mean, it's extra-judicial as all Hell but war usually is. And when you're done, pull the plug on the black ops budget.
It really is the only solution at this point. Declare a state of permanent martial law until the cartels are eradicated. Black book operations. Shoot and execute every member of every cartel. Hire PMCs to pacify the country one territory at a time. Execute army officers who touch cartel money.
The only way to beat the cartels at this point is total war. All cartel is shoot on sight. There is no prison. There are no arrests. There are holes in the desert, with plenty of room for sympathizers.
Honestly, I don't see any other way at this point. You need the will to do this. The absolute iron-clad determination. That being said, I don't think Mexico has it. I don't think they can solve it and it's only a matter of time before the government itself fails.
The cartels buy one hundred tanks in one month? the US Military Industrial complex makes ten thousand Hellfire Missiles in a month.
The cartels buy MANPADS? CAS is already able to flare their way out of a handful of MANPADS
The cartels buy more serious anti-air? their anti-air vehicles are found via satellite and smart bomb'd from near orbit
The cartels get the equipment to counter that? The US fires a couple of tomahawks at it.
The cartels get CWIS and other anti-missile technology? The US rams an entire armoured division up their ass.
The cartels somehow get enough equipment, manpower, and anti-tank gear to do what the entirety of Iraq couldn't do and knock out a few M1 Abrams?
The cartels gets a nasty reminder on which is the only country to have ever used nuclear weapons in warfare.
The United Staes can make this a far bigger problem for the cartels than the cartels could ever possibly hope to handle if the cartels force the United States to take off the kiddy gloves and treat this as a full scale war. Even if you took every single other nation in the world and threw them at the United States, none of them could possibly defeat the US without the use of MAD doctrine.
America has been involved in urban, desert warfare for over 30 years, constantly. That shit is our bread and butter.
The second American troops cross the border, the Narcos die. We will unleash a hell they have never experienced. This isn't even talking about strict warfare, but our counterintelligence. We will start putting every one of their bought bureaucrats, politicians and police chiefs at black sites. We will seize all of their assets without question or delay. Their official connections are infiltrated and completely eradicated, through counter espionage or target through special forces raids and drone strikes. We'd have already infiltrated the country with operators who speak the language and look the part. Cartel operations would be decimated on all fronts at once. Cartel members in the United States cease being criminals and become enemy combatants. All cartel money and property are now free to be seized with impunity by the US government.
The war's supply chain and logistics are would be laughably easy to support and protect, while at the same time theirs would be utterly decimated and shredded. A war so close to the United States is a nightmare scenario for any enemy of ours.
No one would even dream of giving them support if the US decides to go full beast mode on the cartels.
To put it bluntly, the cartels exist because the United States allows them to. If they end up thinking they can just turn Mexico into a failed state and their playground and we'll do nothing, they're high on their own supply. We've started wars half a world away. We are not going to ignore a failed state on our border and this is a threat not only to the cartels, but for Mexico to get its shit together.
The cartels have built up their defensive structures to respond to what they've had to deal with so far.
If the US military starts getting involved, why wouldn't the cartels simply purchase surplus equipment from China/Germany/India/Russia to make up the difference? It's not like this stuff is hard to find. And if I were in Jose's shoes I'd also try to shoot down an incoming missile if I had the kind of money the cartels have.
Designate the cartels as a bigger problem and the cartels will designate spending to become a bigger problem. And so the cycle continues.
'Defensive structures'? These are narcos not fucking Jihadis who have turned their entire country into a death trap. They want to live the good life. You think they have the will to sit in the desert while the United States stomps on them?
Also surplus equipment? The cartels would be an enemy of the state. Any ally or nation that considers dealing with them would face immense consequences. Not to mention transport. The first thing we'd do is completely isolate Mexico. We'd have Mexico on lock, every port, every airstrip, every inroad.
So the cartel can order all they want, they're not getting an Airdrop unless they want a SAM missile up their ass.
Also training. Yeah, buy 100 tanks. No training. Good fucking luck. What about support and logistics for that equipment? Non existent. They have no means of a fight with any nation other than a third world shithole. Also the entirety of those countries you mentioned are thousands upon thousands of miles away. Weapons trickle into Africa because Russia was close. The United States will have 0 problems blasting an Arms Dealer out of the sky.
The amount of ways we would fuck the narcos is dizzying to the imagination. We would bleed them in moments. Any assets would be seized. There is no more justice system. We've bypassed that. This is straight war.
By the way, the second the cartel even attempts to arm itself to resemble an actual military with tanks and missiles and shit, is the very second we destroy them. So there is no preemptive strike. They just die.
The cartels used to not kill our citizens and avoid fucking with us because they knew if they pissed off the beast, it's over. They're on our border. They seem to have forgotten. They really do deserve a lesson.
