UK General Election 2019, Brexit, and all things Britbong politics - No loicense required to post here!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46188790

Agreement is finally in Number 10's grasp.

The text that's taken months of officials' blood, sweat and tears has been agreed, at least at a technical level.

Now a paper's being drafted to present to the Cabinet tomorrow ready for the government's hoped-for next step - political approval from Theresa May's team, even though many of them have deep reservations.

Remember in the last 24 hours some of them have been warning privately that what's on the table is just not acceptable, and will never get through Parliament. Some even believe the prime minister ought to walk away.

But the government machine is now cranking into action. With a text ready, their long-planned rollout can begin.
The BBC's chief political correspondent Vicki Young said some ministers had "deep concerns" about the shape of the likely agreement, which critics say could leave the UK trapped in a customs agreement with the EU.

She said they would have to decide whether they could support it, and if not, whether to resign from cabinet.

Leading Brexiteers have already condemned the draft agreement, Boris Johnson saying it would see the UK remain in the customs union and "large parts" of the single market.

He told the BBC it was "utterly unacceptable to anyone who believes in democracy". "Am I going to vote against it. The answer is yes," he added.

And Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said "given the shambolic nature of the negotiations, this is unlikely to be the good deal for the country".

'Failure to deliver'
Both the UK and EU want to schedule a special summit of European leaders at the end of November to sign off the reportedly 500 page withdrawal deal and the much shorter outline declaration of their future relationship.

Brussels has insisted it would only agree to put the wheels in motion for the summit if agreement can be reached on the issue of the Irish border.

Ambassadors from the remaining 27 EU states will meet in Brussels on Wednesday.

If a deal is agreed with the EU, Mrs May then needs to persuade her party - and the rest of Parliament - to support it in a key Commons vote.

Conservative Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg said if details of the text reported by Irish broadcaster RTE were true, the UK would become a "vassal state" with Northern Ireland "being ruled from Dublin".

Such an agreement "failed to deliver on Brexit" and the cabinet should reject it, he told the BBC.

"I think what we know of this deal is deeply unsatisfactory," he said. "There seems to be growing opposition to these very poor proposals."

Meanwhile, following pressure from all sides of the Commons, ministers have agreed to provide MPs with a legal assessment of the implications for the UK of the Irish backstop and other controversial aspects of any deal.

Cabinet Office minister David Lidington said Attorney General Geoffrey Cox would make a statement to MPs and take questions ahead of the final vote on any Brexit deal.

MPs, he said, would get to see "a full reasoned position statement laying out the government's both political and also legal position on the proposed withdrawal agreement".

The Democratic Unionists' Westminster leader Nigel Dodds said he was pleased Parliament had "asserted its will" as it was imperative that all parties to the deal were clear in what way and for how long it would "legally bind" the UK.

Chequers minus it is. Whatever happened to no deal being better than a bad deal.

We should have been far more aggressive in negotiations with Brussels. They all but stated immediately after the referendum that they were going to bumrape us for having the temerity to leave, so we should have told them that unless and until they got serious, we'd basically go full on tax haven mode and steal all their big companies - and funnel money and support to Eurosceptics in Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland, and Hungary.
 
Hello fellow kids!:

Also I am sorry to report that it‘s all over for Boris and the Conservatives.

Oh good, so a BoJo Majority garunteed and Labour going even more insane from not winning power despite it being their turn then.

Also, funniest ad of the campaign has been deployed, one that will hopefully send Hugh Grant (The nasty psychopath who hates Brexit) Insane;

 
Oh good, so a BoJo Majority garunteed and Labour going even more insane from not winning power despite it being their turn then.

Also, funniest ad of the campaign has been deployed, one that will hopefully send Hugh Grant (The nasty psychopath who hates Brexit) Insane;


:story: God I can hear all the Champagne Socialists screaming from here!
 
Hello fellow kids!:

Also I am sorry to report that it‘s all over for Boris and the Conservatives.

Here‘s the post, can’t confirm the validity one way or another:
View attachment 1043716

Hmmm. Fullfact claims that's a copypasta that's allegedly being put around by "bots."

Personally, I still think that there's more to this story that we're not being told; I'm not too inclined to believe a cut and paste tweet in and of itself, but the fact that the mother is now complaining about the publicity she herself sought smells... off.
 
Terrible news!

ICM's 6% lead for the Tories now puts the rolling average is now just 9.7% The first time is dipped below double figures the entire campaign.

Oh and Shadow Health Secretary John Ashworth, who should've been touring the studios beating the shit out of the Tories over the evil treatment of Jack... was instead caught recorded bad mouthing Corbyn and how he's an obvious threat to national security and that Labour is utterly fucked outside of any inner city seat.

 
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I saw an ad from Corbyn recently where he tries to explain his 30 page suicide note titled "Labour manifesto" in 60 seconds. All of it seemed so wonderful and brilliant ideas. Which is exactly why I'm not voting for Labour, as they would enact none of it successfully.
 
You know, for a party that's supposedly full of and for old farts, the Tories' meme game is pretty strong.

ELazX69X0AAbYiK
 
You know, for a party that's supposedly full of and for old farts, the Tories' meme game is pretty strong.

CCHQ got a bunch of memesmiths in off of the back end of their more targeted ads being actually effective. Broad stroke Facebook adverts for politics does basically nothing, but if you target them against key groups and such it actually has some effect.

The Tories this time around have spent their money on social media wisely and with more precision rather than the scattergun approach on Twitter Labour has long opted for.

Mostly if you go by noise online that Corbyn is due to take all 640 seats and order everyone who voted Tory to be taken into the street and shot.

The reality is the Red Wall is crumbling and leaking all over the shop and anywhere outside of a City feels they're basically fucked.
 
I'm concerned about all those who typically don't vote much turning up for Labour or LibDems. I still recall people singing "Ooo-ooo Jerrremmy Corbin" at Glastonbury and there're students en masse who believe anyone over forty must be a racist for not being pro-Europe. And there are the usual communist types who normally reject all voting as a lie who are now coagulating as a support base for him.

The polls are positive... but they've been wrong far too many times.
 
Prof Curtice is saying a 14 seat Tory majority, but that the tactical voters are likely to decide to tactically vote in the last 24 hours of the campaign, so he's saying that a hung parliament is still on the table.

I accept that election polling in the UK has essentially become a complicated form of astrology and about as reliable, but Prof C is definitely our best astrologer by some distance, so I'm going with his prediction. I already went all in on a bet with my spouse on the election result, and I backed a Tory majority.

There is still 48 hours' possibility for some high profile shitbomb to hit.
 
I'm concerned about all those who typically don't vote much turning up for Labour or LibDems. I still recall people singing "Ooo-ooo Jerrremmy Corbin" at Glastonbury and there're students en masse who believe anyone over forty must be a racist for not being pro-Europe. And there are the usual communist types who normally reject all voting as a lie who are now coagulating as a support base for him.

The polls are positive... but they've been wrong far too many times.

To be fair, they're grouped in safe Labour seats anyhow are the students and communist larpers.
 
The best thing is a lot of Labour goons are screaming at people to 'vote tactically' now. I will be myself, but they won't like how! :smug:

That's how you know they're scared.

They can't vote tactically when they all live in the cities.

It's the same as when they point at "omg 75 gorillion views on Twitter" for that BoJo phone video. Who do you think is on Twitter? Hint: it's not the people you need to win the election.
 
I'm concerned about all those who typically don't vote much turning up for Labour or LibDems. I still recall people singing "Ooo-ooo Jerrremmy Corbin" at Glastonbury and there're students en masse who believe anyone over forty must be a racist for not being pro-Europe. And there are the usual communist types who normally reject all voting as a lie who are now coagulating as a support base for him.

The polls are positive... but they've been wrong far too many times.



Prof Curtice is saying a 14 seat Tory majority, but that the tactical voters are likely to decide to tactically vote in the last 24 hours of the campaign, so he's saying that a hung parliament is still on the table.

I accept that election polling in the UK has essentially become a complicated form of astrology and about as reliable, but Prof C is definitely our best astrologer by some distance, so I'm going with his prediction. I already went all in on a bet with my spouse on the election result, and I backed a Tory majority.

There is still 48 hours' possibility for some high profile shitbomb to hit.

It isn't the same landscape, frankly. Lots of people have gone off of Corbyn and this is happening in seats Labour's either held since the year dot (as my list above showed). Their obfuscation on Brexit has hammered the crap out of them in places which voted Leave with the very voters who often don't come out whatsoever let alone vote for Labour or Lib Dems or whatever. As well as amongst their own "core support" which for the better part of 20 years has felt increasingly isolated and ignored by the Central Party and lots of local candidates from the Tories working their absolute bollocks off to reach out to and speak to them.

This is also the actual Brexit Election and not the fake one we had back in 2017 with May. She was not a good campaigner, her manifesto was written by two arrogant pricks who told everyone to fuck off when asked for preview copies and also included "nicking your house to pay for your care home" within its pages as well as Tax rises. In Comparison we've got "Get rid of the last 2 years of fucking stupidity, and have a tax cut while we're at it too."

The other part is some of the data in other bits of polls which are usually boring stuff nobody reads.

One shows that the Tories have captured 70% of Leave Voters, and of the Conservative Remain Voters they've got 63% of them sown up and ready to vote for them. The supposed "collapse" of the Tories in "Remainia" simply isn't happening as expected. They've shored up enough of their voting base and encouraged more voters in that Survation is reporting a good 11-14% clear majority. Survation was hailed by Corbynistas and the media for having the most accurate snapshots of public opinion just 2 short years ago, and their methodology has not needed adjustment.

In other words, you'd have to have a 15-20% sudden turnout of people who would totally vote Labour/Lib Dem... if they could be bothered to, at a time when Labour activists are regularly getting abuse and vitriol hurled at them on the doorsteps of what should be safe seats for them.
 
Momentum have also put a bounty on who can dump a milkshake on Boris first.

https://order-order.com/2019/12/09/momentum-thugs-organising-cash-reward-attack-boris-milkshakes/

Now, if I were in Boris's team I'd be tempted to sign up to this programme then do a video of Boris being consensually hit with a banana and caramel, then demand the money. Autistic screeching would no doubt ensue.
Or instead convince him to attend one of those and get hit by a milkshake by one of these lunatics. If these geniuses think that doing that will make people support them, they horribly misunderstand the average person. Will also be funny to see Corbyn have to either distance himself or flat out oppose it, and can be used as more ammo against him (not that it will really matter with two days to go).

Has everyone seen the Ashford leaks? Fuck does it not look good for Labour.

On the prospects for Labour nationally Ashworth tells his worried interlocutor:
“I’ve been going round these national places, it’s dire for Labour… it’s dire… it’s awful for them, and it’s the combination of Corbyn and Brexit….outside of the city seats… it’s abysmal out there… they can’t stand Corbyn and they think Labour’s blocked Brexit. I think middle-class graduates – remainy people – Labour’s doing well among… but not in big enough numbers to deny the Tories a majority.”
When Ashworth is told by his friend that he is trying to “work out what to put in the suitcase [if Corbyn comes to power]” Ashworth tries to reassure him
“I just can’t see it happening. It wouldn’t surprise me – for sake of argument – we held Canterbury because of sort of middle-class, Guardian-reading people, but then the Tories take Bolsover off of Labour it wouldn’t surprise me. The electoral map has being going topsy-turvey because of Brexit and Corbyn.”
On getting rid of Corbyn, Ashworth’s friend says that “Is there any reassurance you can give me as to what sensible Labour MPs could do to stop Corbyn?”
“No because we fucked it up; we fucked it up in 2016 when we went too early. People like me were internally saying ‘this isn’t the right moment’ but I got kind of ignored. But I don’t think we’re going to get there; In Mansfield, in Ashfield, it’s dire for the Labour Party up there, these traditional working areas.”
The friend asks about what would happen if the Tories win a majority government “how long would it take Labour to get its act back together and get rid of Corbyn?”
“That’s the thing that’s on our minds… I think things can change quickly; I think things change more quickly anyway now.”

Which then leads to him floundering in a series of interviews while ducking others.

And now, with two days to go, the supporters want the Shadow health secretary sacked for not believing in the cause.
 
I'm concerned about all those who typically don't vote much turning up for Labour or LibDems. I still recall people singing "Ooo-ooo Jerrremmy Corbin" at Glastonbury and there're students en masse who believe anyone over forty must be a racist for not being pro-Europe. And there are the usual communist types who normally reject all voting as a lie who are now coagulating as a support base for him.

The polls are positive... but they've been wrong far too many times.

Well most students are already home for Christmas and will have forgotten to re register to vote in their home towns so don’t worry about it. Just sit back and watch twitter as the kids who know everything but seen nothing screaming on their timelines about being turned away at the ballot.
 
I should try that. I should trouser up to my boss and say, "You know what, [senior partner], you're a cunt. A suppurating, festering lipoma on the buttocks of humanity." Then follow it up with a "LOL JK, it's only banter."

I'll update you from the dole queue as to how that went.
 
I'm waiting to see how Barrow-in-Furness turns out for labour. Labour since 1992 as a poor northern industrial town it fell from 5000 majority just before Corbyn to just a 209 vote majority last time (though is suspiciously being left off swing constituency lists by the media). You see the industry is ship building, more specifically nuclear submarine building, now what does comrade Corbyn have planned for the poor workers of that industry? Oh yeah, unemployment.
 
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I'm waiting to see how Barrow-in-Furness turns out for labour. Labour since 1992 as a poor northern industrial town it fell from 5000 majority just before Corbyn to just a 209 vote majority last time (though is suspiciously being left off swing constituency lists by the media). You see the industry is ship building, more specifically nuclear submarine building, now what does comrade Corbyn have planned for the poor workers of that industry? Oh yeah, unemployment.

In the same way Bolsover has only just begun being talked about really. Or the same way Derbyshire North East Fell (The slow transformation of nearly all of Derbyshire from Solid Labour to True Blue Tory is fascinating) Simon Fell and the rest of the association have been at it again and again slogging away, working their arses off for the best part of four years and 3 elections.

If the national swing is going as expected, then Barrow is going to fall to the Tories as well as scores of other seats. The main question will be how well they can defend other areas at their "core" in South Eastern England as the voting seems quite solid elsewhere, but the question of "Remainia" seems mostly prevalent in the minds of weirdos in cities and the media.

The main discussions have not been these knife edge seats because they're sort of expected to flip Tory this time around anyway. It's seats in which the majority is 5,000+ that are now being talked about as Tories in 10+ territory (as the rolling poll average shows) usually means seats with larger and larger majorities are going to flip. There's even the possibility of places with 10,000 strong majorities flipping.
 
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