UK General Election 2019, Brexit, and all things Britbong politics - No loicense required to post here!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46188790

Agreement is finally in Number 10's grasp.

The text that's taken months of officials' blood, sweat and tears has been agreed, at least at a technical level.

Now a paper's being drafted to present to the Cabinet tomorrow ready for the government's hoped-for next step - political approval from Theresa May's team, even though many of them have deep reservations.

Remember in the last 24 hours some of them have been warning privately that what's on the table is just not acceptable, and will never get through Parliament. Some even believe the prime minister ought to walk away.

But the government machine is now cranking into action. With a text ready, their long-planned rollout can begin.
The BBC's chief political correspondent Vicki Young said some ministers had "deep concerns" about the shape of the likely agreement, which critics say could leave the UK trapped in a customs agreement with the EU.

She said they would have to decide whether they could support it, and if not, whether to resign from cabinet.

Leading Brexiteers have already condemned the draft agreement, Boris Johnson saying it would see the UK remain in the customs union and "large parts" of the single market.

He told the BBC it was "utterly unacceptable to anyone who believes in democracy". "Am I going to vote against it. The answer is yes," he added.

And Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said "given the shambolic nature of the negotiations, this is unlikely to be the good deal for the country".

'Failure to deliver'
Both the UK and EU want to schedule a special summit of European leaders at the end of November to sign off the reportedly 500 page withdrawal deal and the much shorter outline declaration of their future relationship.

Brussels has insisted it would only agree to put the wheels in motion for the summit if agreement can be reached on the issue of the Irish border.

Ambassadors from the remaining 27 EU states will meet in Brussels on Wednesday.

If a deal is agreed with the EU, Mrs May then needs to persuade her party - and the rest of Parliament - to support it in a key Commons vote.

Conservative Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg said if details of the text reported by Irish broadcaster RTE were true, the UK would become a "vassal state" with Northern Ireland "being ruled from Dublin".

Such an agreement "failed to deliver on Brexit" and the cabinet should reject it, he told the BBC.

"I think what we know of this deal is deeply unsatisfactory," he said. "There seems to be growing opposition to these very poor proposals."

Meanwhile, following pressure from all sides of the Commons, ministers have agreed to provide MPs with a legal assessment of the implications for the UK of the Irish backstop and other controversial aspects of any deal.

Cabinet Office minister David Lidington said Attorney General Geoffrey Cox would make a statement to MPs and take questions ahead of the final vote on any Brexit deal.

MPs, he said, would get to see "a full reasoned position statement laying out the government's both political and also legal position on the proposed withdrawal agreement".

The Democratic Unionists' Westminster leader Nigel Dodds said he was pleased Parliament had "asserted its will" as it was imperative that all parties to the deal were clear in what way and for how long it would "legally bind" the UK.

Chequers minus it is. Whatever happened to no deal being better than a bad deal.

We should have been far more aggressive in negotiations with Brussels. They all but stated immediately after the referendum that they were going to bumrape us for having the temerity to leave, so we should have told them that unless and until they got serious, we'd basically go full on tax haven mode and steal all their big companies - and funnel money and support to Eurosceptics in Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland, and Hungary.

 

[Ira the Weatherman]

So, UK Kiwis. How fucked are Labour? Are we talking about landslide supermajority in Parliament kind of deal?

Because that would be hilarious after all their waffling on Brexit.

If Swinson had been remotely likeable or competent the Libdems would've badly mauled Labour. They at least have a clear position on Brexit which a substantial number of people can get behind, and their other policies are more palatable than Corbyns radical manifesto. I seriously considered the possibility that Labour might end up becoming the third party until I heard that woman speak.

Will the Tories be able to pass legislation with a sub 50% majority

The UK has a FPTP system in every local council, which determines who the local seat goes to. So '45% of the popular vote' doesn't translate into '45% of MPs'. The Tories could easily score a comfortable majority of seats in Parliament if they manage to become the biggest party in enough council elections, which the polls suggest they will. They're likely to swing seats that would've been unthinkable to swing just a few years ago.

It's going to be a Trump tier victory in which they might not get an absolute popular majority, but manage to utterly trounce the opposition on its home turf by appealing to actual issues whilst their rivals are just preaching to an increasingly fundamentalist choir.

 

[Manwithn0n0men]

The UK has a FPTP system in every local council, which determines who the local seat goes to. So '45% of the popular vote' doesn't translate into '45% of MPs'. The Tories could easily score a comfortable majority of seats in Parliament if they manage to become the biggest party in enough council elections, which the polls suggest they will. They're likely to swing seats that would've been unthinkable to swing just a few years ago.

It's going to be a Trump tier victory in which they might not get an absolute popular majority, but manage to utterly trounce the opposition on its home turf by appealing to actual issues whilst their rivals are just preaching to an increasingly fundamentalist choir.

Thats been whats killing me about this election

"Brexit is important" as an issue but nothings gotten done because the other Jackasses are all in on Anti-Brexit

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

So is it possible we may see Major re-alignment?

We pretty much already have. The Tories are sitting pretty with nearly 50% of what is called the "DE" vote. Which is a remarkable turnaround. D/E is a classification of lower income people or what was previously called the "working class" (but that's been nicked by quite a few people who don't fucking work because they're all sat on their arses waiting for the pits to reopen). D/E have always been traditionally Labour Voters that they had to do fuck all to have their votes.

Over half of them have now abandoned, or been abandoned by, Labour's increasingly student politics and radical socialist policies. On top of that, with Brexit having caused basically all governance to be paralysed for three years means a lot are throwing the dice at the Tories to give them the breathing room needed to pass the line on the biggest democratic vote in history.

 

[Manwithn0n0men]

We pretty much already have. The Tories are sitting pretty with nearly 50% of what is called the "DE" vote. Which is a remarkable turnaround. D/E is a classification of lower income people or what was previously called the "working class" (but that's been nicked by quite a few people who don't fucking work because they're all sat on their arses waiting for the pits to reopen). D/E have always been traditionally Labour Voters that they had to do fuck all to have their votes.

Over half of them have now abandoned, or been abandoned by, Labour's increasingly student politics and radical socialist policies. On top of that, with Brexit having caused basically all governance to be paralysed for three years means a lot are throwing the dice at the Tories to give them the breathing room needed to pass the line on the biggest democratic vote in history.

I also dont get who the LDP voters even are in this current world order. Tories who want to be in the EU? Is that it?

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

I also dont get who the LDP voters even are in this current world order. Tories who want to be in the EU? Is that it?

Ideally they should've been Remainers, as the Lib Dems captured a large chunk of those voters at one point. Pro weed, pro immigration etc etc. Basically a party of Middle Class Professionals who most of these policies rarely touch.

Then, for no real reason (aside from Swinson's Ego, most likely) they decided that a presidential style campaign mimicking the May campaign was their best bet with a woman even less charming than the fucking Maybot.

Basically they're like any other party which normally puts "democracy" in their name. They're not. Their plan, such as it was, was to coast in on whatever vote they could get, then just arbitrarily cancel Brexit because they hoped to grab that mythical 48% of the vote that wanted to Remain.

Problem is old Coke-eyes n Horse teeth really is unlikeable, and their central policy of "bollocks to brexit" fell apart like a teenage boy's cheap tissue paper to the point they've both abandoned the policy and their leader being front and centre of all campaigning.

 

[Inquisitor_BadAss]

Jocks of the farms what are your predictions for the SNP?

 

[Manwithn0n0men]

Jocks of the farms what are your predictions for the SNP?

Other then sexual relations with sheep (which if not for the Welsh would be the most scottish nationalist thing you could do)

 

[Clem Fandango]

Funny how a few years ago it was always cries of "well if you add up all the other parties, most people DIDNT vote Tory". With Cons on 45% we're almost at the point where even that isn't the case.

Looking at some other forums,
were gonna have some proper meltdowns Thursday night...

 

[Pickle Inspector]

Jocks of the farms what are your predictions for the SNP?

More or less the same as the last general election (If the polls are to believed it hasn't made much difference to Conservative numbers that Ruth Davidson has stepped down as Scottish Conservative leader unlike what some had assumed) but it's quite close between the top two parties in many areas and you might see some big name seats change hands such as perhaps the Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson losing her seat to the SNP in East Dunbartonshire.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Funny how a few years ago it was always cries of "well if you add up all the other parties, most people DIDNT vote Tory". With Cons on 45% we're almost at the point where even that isn't the case.

Looking at some other forums,
were gonna have some proper meltdowns Thursday night...

Oh there's already been some Corbynista's melting down around twitter apparently.

Corbyn's decided to go into the final few days of campaigning... not hitting the Labour Leave heartlands aka "The Red Wall" in the Midlands and Northern England, but instead running to the hugbox.

He's been in Bristol in front of a massive crowd in a seat that is likely to turn a remainy red as a result of the large student population that is normally there.

Meanwhile, despite the hammering in the media, BoJo and his battlebus were cheeky enough to tour Ed Miliband's seat and have launched a blitz of targetted ads on people's facebook in that area, Miliband is defending a majority of 14,000 or so.

Oh, and as a result of the weird picture which surfaced of a child placed on the floor in Leeds Hospital, Matt Hancock (still the Health Secretary even as the election runs on) has been dispatched to Leeds General to see what the fuck is wrong with them and fix any problems personally. According to Laura Kunseburg of the BBC, Labour rushed momentumite nutters into the hospital to scream in his face and one has assaulted one of Hancock's aides.

I honestly suspect in the coming days the full story of said child will be out and it won't be the evil Tories and the NHS that will be at fault. More like the sick in the head parents putting their sick child on the floor and photographing him for the attention, or to try and embarrass the Tories.

 

[CWCissey]

Got a named Brexit Party pamphlet today.

Labour: 2
Brexit Party: 2
Lib Dems: 1
Green Party: 1

I think the Tories aren't even bothering here at the mo, or they're being arrogant.

 

[Sable]

I think the Tories aren't even bothering here at the mo, or they're being arrogant.

Hopefully that's not happening everywhere; they've done this before and it's led to them not winning anywhere near as much as predicted.

 

[Clem Fandango]

Oh there's already been some Corbynista's melting down around twitter apparently.

Corbyn's decided to go into the final few days of campaigning... not hitting the Labour Leave heartlands aka "The Red Wall" in the Midlands and Northern England, but instead running to the hugbox.

He's been in Bristol in front of a massive crowd in a seat that is likely to turn a remainy red as a result of the large student population that is normally there.

Meanwhile, despite the hammering in the media, BoJo and his battlebus were cheeky enough to tour Ed Miliband's seat and have launched a blitz of targetted ads on people's facebook in that area, Miliband is defending a majority of 14,000 or so.

Oh, and as a result of the weird picture which surfaced of a child placed on the floor in Leeds Hospital, Matt Hancock (still the Health Secretary even as the election runs on) has been dispatched to Leeds General to see what the fuck is wrong with them and fix any problems personally. According to Laura Kunseburg of the BBC, Labour rushed momentumite nutters into the hospital to scream in his face and one has assaulted one of Hancock's aides.

I honestly suspect in the coming days the full story of said child will be out and it won't be the evil Tories and the NHS that will be at fault. More like the sick in the head parents putting their sick child on the floor and photographing him for the attention, or to try and embarrass the Tories.

My favourite part of that is Corbynites will spam Twitter with videos of Magic Grandad in front of adoring crowds in Bristol and say things like "bet Boris wishes he was that popular!".

It's like...look at the leader polling data. He is that popular. I'm fact, he's far MORE popular and seen as way more competent by way more people.

You're right: his visit to Bristol is an amazing waste of time at this point in the campaign. They're not going to lose Bristol West to the Greens ffs.

Maybe he realises it's his last chance to do a "stadium gig" before he's turfed out on Friday? Starmer's already waiting in the wings.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

My favourite part of that is Corbynites will spam Twitter with videos of Magic Grandad in front of adoring crowds in Bristol and say things like "bet Boris wishes he was that popular!".

It's like...look at the leader polling data. He is that popular. I'm fact, he's far MORE popular and seen as way more competent by way more people.

You're right: his visit to Bristol is an amazing waste of time at this point in the campaign. They're not going to lose Bristol West to the Greens ffs.

Maybe he realises it's his last chance to do a "stadium gig" before he's turfed out on Friday? Starmer's already waiting in the wings.

That line was being used non-stop by the randos who were attending it.

Labour's really not fighting this election by this point, public polling data points to a comfortable working majority for BoJo, and private data in individual seats is likely far harsher. The gamble to go on an all out attack for most of the campaign has failed miserably and they're now in a final ditch "defence" strategy to try and shore up some seats.

This has worked in Wales, where the Tories were supposed to trounce Labour even there, but now there's a 3% Labour Lead once again, but it seems gone are the days where Labour can command solid blocs of the country.

 

[AnOminous]

This has worked in Wales, where the Tories were supposed to trounce Labour even there, but now there's a 3% Labour Lead once again, but it seems gone are the days where Labour can command solid blocs of the country.

Who'd think being openly contemptuous of the working class while calling yourself "Labour" might have diminishing returns.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Who'd think being openly contemptuous of the working class while calling yourself "Labour" might have diminishing returns.

Even with the 3% lead, Labour is set to lose a bunch of seats it's held since the Year Dot.

They're currently on course to lose (with how long they've held the seat in brackets):

Wrexham (1935)
Vale of Clwyd (2017, swing)
Gower (1909-2015, 2017)
Cardiff North (2017, swing)
Delyn (1992, held since then by David Hansen)
Bridgend (1987)
Clwyd South (1997, constituency created)
Alyn and Deeside (1983, constituency created)

Basically these are all seats you'd expect them to hold, or have on complete lockdown, and they're just.... not, it's bizarre to see. It's also more interesting as in some places the Tory candidates are slogging away, quietly finding their voters rather than any great seismic shift.

 

[Ginger Piglet]

I honestly suspect in the coming days the full story of said child will be out and it won't be the evil Tories and the NHS that will be at fault. More like the sick in the head parents putting their sick child on the floor and photographing him for the attention, or to try and embarrass the Tories.

In a formal complaint to press regulator IPSO, she said she had initially given permission to two newspapers to use her son Jack's image but - after the story was widely reported across other news outlets - she now wanted to prevent any further publication of the picture or his details.

Sounds to me like there's something going on here. If it was such a scandal why does she want to stop it being disseminated. What aren't we being told.

Then again, he's also made noises, has Boris, about abolishing the TV loicense. Given that this will mean that Beeboids like Gary Lineker and Mark Mardell will end up having to take pay cuts as there's no way a commercial station could justify their inflated salaries, expect the Beeb not to even try hiding its bias from here on in.

Momentum have also put a bounty on who can dump a milkshake on Boris first.

https://order-order.com/2019/12/09/momentum-thugs-organising-cash-reward-attack-boris-milkshakes/

Now, if I were in Boris's team I'd be tempted to sign up to this programme then do a video of Boris being consensually hit with a banana and caramel, then demand the money. Autistic screeching would no doubt ensue.

I can't help but feel the desperation is showing. Seems to me that the excuses are being got in ahead of time as to why Steptoe is unlikely to win (Electoral Calculus reckons a 70% probability of a 46-seat Tory majority, Paddy Power has the odds of a Tory majority as being 1 to 4) so they're sort of pulling stunts like this. A bit like how a beaten chess player chucks out a few spite checks before being checkmated definitively.

 

[Absolutego]

Who'd think being openly contemptuous of the working class while calling yourself "Labour" might have diminishing returns.

It's happening with Democrats in the USA too, I think explicitly left-wing parties are just destined to eventually be overrun by elites using the party to soothe their class guilt while making the same attempt to be enlightened philosopher kings the rich always make.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Sounds to me like there's something going on here. If it was such a scandal why does she want to stop it being disseminated. What aren't we being told.

I can't help but feel the desperation is showing. Seems to me that the excuses are being got in ahead of time as to why Steptoe is unlikely to win (Electoral Calculus reckons a 70% probability of a 46-seat Tory majority, Paddy Power has the odds of a Tory majority as being 1 to 4) so they're sort of pulling stunts like this. A bit like how a beaten chess player chucks out a few spite checks before being checkmated definitively.

Supposedly a Leeds Hospital nurse has tweeted the whole thing is a set up. Not been able to find it yet though.

The main thing is that Labour bussed in and paid a bunch of their nutters to storm in to scream and shout at Hancock so they can be identified as only "onlookers" by the BBC.

With how blatant Channel 4 has been, they're most likely for the chop first as a public broadcaster, either broken up or sold off as is to some american network looking for a good bite at the UK TV Market cherry.

After that, the BBC could likely be forced into a subscription model, meaning an end to that particular farce, no longer needing a license to watch shit not funded by them would be nice.

 

[Pickle Inspector]

Hello fellow kids!:

Jeremy Corbyn on Twitter

“This was surprisingly fun. https://t.co/Tjl60l70bl”

twitter.com

Also I am sorry to report that it‘s all over for Boris and the Conservatives.

Supposedly a Leeds Hospital nurse has tweeted the whole thing is a set up. Not been able to find it yet though.

The main thing is that Labour bussed in and paid a bunch of their nutters to storm in to scream and shout at Hancock so they can be identified as only "onlookers" by the BBC.

With how blatant Channel 4 has been, they're most likely for the chop first as a public broadcaster, either broken up or sold off as is to some american network looking for a good bite at the UK TV Market cherry.

After that, the BBC could likely be forced into a subscription model, meaning an end to that particular farce, no longer needing a license to watch shit not funded by them would be nice.

Here‘s the post, can’t confirm the validity one way or another: