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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46188790

Agreement is finally in Number 10's grasp.

The text that's taken months of officials' blood, sweat and tears has been agreed, at least at a technical level.

Now a paper's being drafted to present to the Cabinet tomorrow ready for the government's hoped-for next step - political approval from Theresa May's team, even though many of them have deep reservations.

Remember in the last 24 hours some of them have been warning privately that what's on the table is just not acceptable, and will never get through Parliament. Some even believe the prime minister ought to walk away.

But the government machine is now cranking into action. With a text ready, their long-planned rollout can begin.
The BBC's chief political correspondent Vicki Young said some ministers had "deep concerns" about the shape of the likely agreement, which critics say could leave the UK trapped in a customs agreement with the EU.

She said they would have to decide whether they could support it, and if not, whether to resign from cabinet.

Leading Brexiteers have already condemned the draft agreement, Boris Johnson saying it would see the UK remain in the customs union and "large parts" of the single market.

He told the BBC it was "utterly unacceptable to anyone who believes in democracy". "Am I going to vote against it. The answer is yes," he added.

And Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said "given the shambolic nature of the negotiations, this is unlikely to be the good deal for the country".

'Failure to deliver'
Both the UK and EU want to schedule a special summit of European leaders at the end of November to sign off the reportedly 500 page withdrawal deal and the much shorter outline declaration of their future relationship.

Brussels has insisted it would only agree to put the wheels in motion for the summit if agreement can be reached on the issue of the Irish border.

Ambassadors from the remaining 27 EU states will meet in Brussels on Wednesday.

If a deal is agreed with the EU, Mrs May then needs to persuade her party - and the rest of Parliament - to support it in a key Commons vote.

Conservative Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg said if details of the text reported by Irish broadcaster RTE were true, the UK would become a "vassal state" with Northern Ireland "being ruled from Dublin".

Such an agreement "failed to deliver on Brexit" and the cabinet should reject it, he told the BBC.

"I think what we know of this deal is deeply unsatisfactory," he said. "There seems to be growing opposition to these very poor proposals."

Meanwhile, following pressure from all sides of the Commons, ministers have agreed to provide MPs with a legal assessment of the implications for the UK of the Irish backstop and other controversial aspects of any deal.

Cabinet Office minister David Lidington said Attorney General Geoffrey Cox would make a statement to MPs and take questions ahead of the final vote on any Brexit deal.

MPs, he said, would get to see "a full reasoned position statement laying out the government's both political and also legal position on the proposed withdrawal agreement".

The Democratic Unionists' Westminster leader Nigel Dodds said he was pleased Parliament had "asserted its will" as it was imperative that all parties to the deal were clear in what way and for how long it would "legally bind" the UK.

Chequers minus it is. Whatever happened to no deal being better than a bad deal.

We should have been far more aggressive in negotiations with Brussels. They all but stated immediately after the referendum that they were going to bumrape us for having the temerity to leave, so we should have told them that unless and until they got serious, we'd basically go full on tax haven mode and steal all their big companies - and funnel money and support to Eurosceptics in Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland, and Hungary.
 
LibDems are putting out an insane amount of leaflets and letters in constituencies they think they have a chance in. Given that spending is supposed to be capped, and that cap is per constituency rather than nationally, I have to wonder just how much money they have. And who has given it to them.

They reportedly have some other party whose job is basically to put out leaflets in their own name as paper candidates in which they then boost that only the Lib Dems can win there.

https://order-order.com/2019/12/05/pro-libdem-front-group-clear-abuse-electoral-law/
 
I live in a seat where you could half the Tory vote and add the other parties together from the last election and you still get a Tory MP. It is also somewhere that voted to leave. I have been bombarded by Lib Dem fliers and had a couple of door knockers. Like are you people exceptional, oh wait Lib Dem, carry on.
 
So do people actually believe that the Tories will suddenly start doing better after a decade of making the country worse?

Literally the least worst option at this moment in time.

You have the Tories, who are at least consistent and have managed the UK from the Great Recession, and held a civil war in public over leaving the EU and come out of it stronger with any new intake likely to be more brexity, they've also recaptured the 20% who were quite willing to walk away to a new party. Once again, the Western World's oldest political party has survived another scrape and is likely to continue its hard earned and sometimes arrogant "right to rule" into the next decade.

Or the Liberal Democrats who join the noble ranks of other organisations which put "democracy" in their names and has had to desperately pinwheel back and forth on various policies due to how much voters loath the fucking things. It's gone from outright revocation of Brexit back to a mealy mouthed "PEOPLES VOTE" (in which you're given one option and fuck you) and has recently whisked away their horse teethed leader because the more people saw and actually heard her, the more repulsed they were by a woman clearly on coke every fucking waking hour.

Or we have Labour, who's top bods are unhinged lunatics, with plans that will not only result in the UK's bankruptcy and ability to raise capital on the world stage, but actually fuck over enormous numbers of pensioners thanks to their insane renationalization policy, in which most of the folks likely to be fucked over won't be random faceless "money men" as McDonnel likes to wank himself off to making paupers, but equity firms who run pension schemes. Oh, and Diane Abbot as Home Secretary? That woman would make murdering white people automatic self defence if she could fucking get away with it.

EDIT: Also my seat is solidly Tory too, and only gets more so every time more people actually move here as it's mostly families fleeing exceptional councils elsewhere. My own little area has already been considered "in the bag" by the local association and they're busy lovebombing the more working class zones to drive Labour's vote share lower.
 
Speaking of Tory Party:
1575863461126.png


..........clearly anyone's game, people.
 
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Speaking of Tory Party:
View attachment 1042459

..........clearly anyone's game, people.

According to some polling done the Tories are on course to flip the seat of Wrexham.

Wrexham was created in 1918 and has been held by Labour since 1935 but since 2015's general election became a marginal with the majority typically being around the 2,000 mark. UKIP took 15,000 votes at the last GE, but with them a spent force and the Brexit Party brand now somewhat dampened by their national-interest choice this sort of seat flipping is the real "earthquake" moment for both parties.

Another such seat is Newcastle Under Lyme, which Labour has held since 1918 and turned ultra-marginal in 2017 with a majority of just 30. I heard on the rumour mill that the Tories are set to storm that seat completely this time around due to how pissed people are at Labour obfuscation and more bloody referenda.

My honest prediction is we'll see the formal realignment of Labour into a metro-luvvies party more formally with this election. A lot of batshit insane corbynistas will be elected in various plum inner city seats. Labour will more formally become the party of "those who think they can afford socialism" of upper class professional wonks in their god awful enclaves calling for more immigrants (just not where we live though, thanks) and all the other bollocks that we've been subjected to for the past two decades but they haven't.

The Tories are on course of becoming the party of "The Working Person" as opposed to the Working Class, as a Savanta ComRes poll at the back end of November revealed 43% of "DE" voters (low or unskilled etc) intend to vote Tory this election. Which is up an eyewatering 35% from a similar poll done just two years ago. Seats will flip we didn't expect and like Wrexham and Newcastle Under Lyme have been sold red for decades.
 
So do people actually believe that the Tories will suddenly start doing better after a decade of making the country worse?

I’m a single issue voter at this point, I just want Brexit to happen so we can move on to dealing with the stuff that happens after.
I’ll save worrying about everything else for the next election.
 
Two further bits of interest:

Yougov now shows that the Tories are commanding a huge majority among the working class:


The Tories are on 48% among DE/working class voters as I mentioned above earlier. This is up from just 29% when Cameron won his majority back in 2015.

Survation have also published their latest poll (and were considered "the most accurate" by Corbyn Window lickers)

Instead we're seeing another last minute Tory Surge from their previous poll.

Tories are on 45% (+3)
Labour are on 31% (-2)
Lib Dems are on 11% (NC)
Brexit Party are on 4% (+1)
 
Two further bits of interest:

Yougov now shows that the Tories are commanding a huge majority among the working class:


The Tories are on 48% among DE/working class voters as I mentioned above earlier. This is up from just 29% when Cameron won his majority back in 2015.

Survation have also published their latest poll (and were considered "the most accurate" by Corbyn Window lickers)

Instead we're seeing another last minute Tory Surge from their previous poll.

Tories are on 45% (+3)
Labour are on 31% (-2)
Lib Dems are on 11% (NC)
Brexit Party are on 4% (+1)
So, UK Kiwis. How fucked are Labour? Are we talking about landslide supermajority in Parliament kind of deal?

Because that would be hilarious after all their waffling on Brexit.
 
So, UK Kiwis. How fucked are Labour? Are we talking about landslide supermajority in Parliament kind of deal?

Because that would be hilarious after all their waffling on Brexit.

They'll likely get a drubbing at least. They'll probably keep their studenty constituencies and a fair amount of those that would literally vote for a dog turd if it was wearing a red rosette.
 
So, UK Kiwis. How fucked are Labour? Are we talking about landslide supermajority in Parliament kind of deal?

Because that would be hilarious after all their waffling on Brexit.

The Tories are "one big push" from unseating the Beast of Bolsover.

To give this some context:

The seat has been Labour since its creation in 1950.

Since 1970 it has been represented by the same man, Dennis Skinner aka "The Beast of Bolsover".

Until 2017, his majority never dropped below 10,000 votes.

In 2017 he dropped to just 5,288 votes.

Typically when your poll lead is somewhere in the double figures, any seats under 10,000 strong majorities become up for grabs. So its entirely possible one of the most achingly Labour seats which still causes random people in the constituency to burst into flames if you utter the word "Thatcher" might actually vote Tory.
 
The Tories are "one big push" from unseating the Beast of Bolsover.

To give this some context:

The seat has been Labour since its creation in 1950.

Since 1970 it has been represented by the same man, Dennis Skinner aka "The Beast of Bolsover".

Until 2017, his majority never dropped below 10,000 votes.

In 2017 he dropped to just 5,288 votes.

Typically when your poll lead is somewhere in the double figures, any seats under 10,000 strong majorities become up for grabs. So its entirely possible one of the most achingly Labour seats which still causes random people in the constituency to burst into flames if you utter the word "Thatcher" might actually vote Tory.
So is it possible we may see Major re-alignment?
 
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