War Iran-United States Military Crisis of 2020 - US Baghdad embassy under siege, rocket fire in US Baghdad green zone, Ukrainian Airlines flight 752 crash, and more!

January 10th:
Exclusive: Informants in Iraq, Syria helped U.S. kill Iran's Soleimani - sources (archive)(post)
Iraqi Shia cleric whose militia killed American troops says crisis is over following Iran strike and Trump speech (archive)(post)
Iraqi PM tells US to decide mechanism for troop withdrawal (archive)(post)
Mike Pence says Congress might 'compromise sources and methods' if fully briefed on the Soleimani strike (archive)(post)
Unidentified planes hit Iraqi militiamen in Syria, killing 8 (archive)(post)
Iraq: The Master Of Mayhem Meets A Missile (archive)(post)
Eliminating Qasem Soleimani was Donald Trump’s Middle East farewell letter (archive)(post)
Iran uses BULLDOZERS to clear debris from plane crash site while accusing US of ‘big lie’ that they shot it down (archive)(post)
Swiss Back Channel Helped Defuse U.S.-Iran Crisis (post)

January 11th:
UKRAINIAN AIRCRAFT WAS BROUGHT DOWN IN IRAN DUE TO 'HUMAN ERROR' (archive)(post)
Iran minister says 'human error' caused by 'US adventurism' led to deadly crash of Ukrainian jetliner (archive)(post)
Ukrainian aircraft was brought down in Iran due to 'human error' (archive)(post)
Trump, at Ohio rally, says Democrats would have leaked Soleimani attack plans (archive)(post)
The Atlantic's David Frum blames Trump for downing of plane in Iran, deaths of 176 (archive)(post)
Associated Press changes ‘shockingly bad’ headline about Soleimani, Ukrainian plane crash after backlash (archive)(post)
GOP Rep. Doug Collins apologizes for saying Democrats are 'in love with terrorists' (archive)(post)
Iran demands West 'show findings' as new video reveals aircraft was struck before fiery crash (archive)(post)
Warren town hall interrupted by angry protester accusing her of ‘siding with terrorists’ (archive)(post)
Trump administration announces new sanctions on Iran (archive)(post)
Prepare For the Worst From Iran Cyber Attacks, As DHS Issues Warning: Experts (archive)(post)
Trump tells Fox News' Laura Ingraham 'four embassies' were targeted in imminent threat from Iran (archive)(post)
Trump tweets support for Iranian protesters as they demand Khamenei quit (archive)(post)
Trump warns Iran against ‘another massacre’ as protests flare over downed jet (archive)(post)

January 12th:
Trump tweet in Farsi 'the most liked Persian tweet' in history of Twitter (archive)(post)
Iraq warned to keep US troops or risk financial blow-WSJ (archive)(post)
Iran arrests UK ambassador in what Britain calls ‘flagrant violation of international law’ (archive)(post)

January 13th:
Trump authorized Soleimani's killing 7 months ago, with conditions (archive)(post)

edit: This is a WIP. All links are posted in the order they appear in the thread, not in chronological order of their publication.


---Original OP before the merge---
Iraqi supporters of Iran-backed militia attack US Embassy
https://apnews.com/75228a8a607a44863b57021ac33264dc (http://archive.vn/ljm9Y)

By QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA12 minutes ago

BAGHDAD (AP) — Dozens of angry Iraqi Shiite militia supporters broke into the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad on Tuesday after smashing a main door and setting fire to a reception area, prompting tear gas and sounds of gunfire.

An Associated Press reporter at the scene saw flames rising from inside the compound and at least three U.S. soldiers on the roof of the main building inside embassy. It was not clear what caused the fire at the reception area near the parking lot of the compound. A man on a loudspeaker urged the mob not to enter the compound, saying: “The message was delivered.”

The embassy attack followed deadly U.S. airstrikes on Sunday that killed 25 fighters of the Iran-backed militia in Iraq, the Kataeb Hezbollah. The U.S. military said it was in retaliation for last week’s killing of an American contractor in a rocket attack on an Iraqi military base that it had blamed on the militia.

Dozens of protesters marched inside the compound after smashing the gate used by cars to enter the embassy. The protesters, many in militia uniform, stopped in a corridor after about 5 meters (16 feet), and were only about 200 meters away from the main building. Half a dozen U.S. soldiers were seen on the roof of the main building, their guns were pointed at the protesters.

Smoke from the tear gas rose in the area, and at least three of the protesters appeared to have difficulties breathing. It wasn’t immediately known whether the embassy staff had remained inside the main building.

The protesters hanged a poster on the wall: “America is an aggressor.”

Shouting “Down, Down USA,” the crowd tried to push inside the embassy grounds, hurling water and stones over its walls. They raised yellow militia flags and taunted the embassy’s security staff who remained behind the glass windows in the gates’ reception area. They sprayed graffiti on the wall and windows in red in support of the Kataeb Hezbollah militia: “Closed in the name of the resistance.”

Hundreds of angry protesters, some in militia uniforms, set up tents outside the embassy. As tempers rose, the mob set fire to three trailers used by security guards along the embassy wall.

No one was immediately reported hurt in the rampage and security staff had withdrawn to inside the embassy earlier, soon after protesters gathered outside.

The U.S. attack — the largest targeting an Iraqi state-sanctioned militia in recent years — and the subsequent calls by the militia for retaliation, represent a new escalation in the proxy war between the U.S. and Iran playing out in the Middle East.

Tuesday’s attempted embassy storming took place after mourners and supporters held funerals for the militia fighters killed in a Baghdad neighborhood, after which they marched on to the heavily fortified Green Zone and kept walking till they reached the sprawling U.S. Embassy there.

AP journalists then saw the crowd as they tried to scale the walls of the embassy, in what appeared to be an attempt to storm it, shouting “Down, down USA!” and “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.”

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday’s strikes send the message that the U.S. will not tolerate actions by Iran that jeopardize American lives.

The Iranian-backed Iraqi militia had vowed Monday to retaliate for the U.S. military strikes. The attack and vows for revenge raised concerns of new attacks that could threaten American interests in the region.

The U.S. attack also outraged both the militias and the Iraqi government, which said it will reconsider its relationship with the U.S.-led coalition — the first time it has said it will do so since an agreement was struck to keep some U.S. troops in the country. It called the attack a “flagrant violation” of its sovereignty.

In a partly televised meeting Monday, Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi told Cabinet members that he had tried to stop the U.S. operation “but there was insistence” from American officials.

The U.S. military said “precision defensive strikes” were conducted against five sites of Kataeb Hezbollah, or Hezbollah Brigades in Iraq and Syria. The group, which is a separate force from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, operates under the umbrella of the state-sanctioned militias known collectively as the Popular Mobilization Forces. Many of them are supported by Iran.

.

 

[Huitzilopochtli]

Now that all the threads got merged and everything is out of context, I'm gonna say fuck 19 pages and just respond. Anti air weapons don't really use explosions to damage the aircraft, like you might see in the movies. A guided missile knows it's distance from the target, will explode a certain distance away, then shower the aircraft in shrapnel in the hopes of destroying an engine, severing major electrical functions, or rupturing the hydraulic flight control systems. Most aircraft have at least 1 back up hydraulic system, and due to the controlled descent, at least one of those systems remained intact. I don't know nearly as much about the comm equipment, but someone mentioned that radio contact had been lost. If that's true, it could have been damaged. The fire ball you see while the aircraft is still flying is a wing mounted engine. That is really common when shrapnel hits the engine. Most aircraft of this size use their hollow wings as the fuel tank, so the giant explosion when the bird hits the ground is the wing coming apart and dumping it's fuel on the burning engine.

Here's a generic example. Mind you that this is a Russian missile, and there's a lot of documentation saying that most of Iran's missiles are based on soviet design, but even the Russians say that Iran doesn't have the manufacturing capacities to make them correctly.
View attachment 1089418

Depends on the type of missile, intercept vehicle, and target the missile was designed for. For the majority of plane and missile intercepts in lower atmosphere (dogfighting to cruising altitudes) you're correct. Generally speaking airburst ordnance is enough to cook off munitions, damage electronics and guidance systems. The higher you go, the more you start seeing solid core intercept vehicles (the SM-3'S kinetic warhead for example.)

EDIT: generally speaking use of explosive force as a primary means of destruction is prominent in missiles that are designed for ground targets.

 

[pull over dat ass too fat]

Two rockets explode near US Embassy in Baghdad with no casualties: report

At least two rockets have struck the area in Iraq’s capital city where the U.S.

thehill.com

Surprised no one mentioned this. They seem to still be at it.

 

[Jump]

Lol @ Some guy all hopped up on Akbar, waiting for a hypersonic cruise missile to crash into his SAM site, flipping out and shooting down a passenger jet.

With salami dead dumb stuff like this is going to happen more and more.
No one would do anything with out checking with him 1st. If they failed to get permission then they would be killed.
Now all these goatfuckers are out there thinking for themselves with nothing but Allah and the public propaganda from their government to guide them.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Two rockets explode near US Embassy in Baghdad with no casualties: report

At least two rockets have struck the area in Iraq’s capital city where the U.S.

thehill.com

Surprised no one mentioned this. They seem to still be at it.

That's just a normal evening in Baghdad.

 

[ForTheHoard]

Depends on the type of missile, intercept vehicle, and target the missile was designed for. For the majority of plane and missile intercepts in lower atmosphere (dogfighting to cruising altitudes) you're correct. Generally speaking airburst ordnance is enough to cook off munitions, damage electronics and guidance systems. The higher you go, the more you start seeing solid core intercept vehicles (the SM-3'S kinetic warhead for example.)

EDIT: generally speaking use of explosive force as a primary means of destruction is prominent in missiles that are designed for ground targets.

Right, it's a somewhat generic take, but I would argue that it is consistent with most shoulder fired missiles used over there. It could have even been a super old school AA gun that used projectile rotation distance measuring with air burst shells. That's more of a WWII technology, but we did run across a shitload of old equipment/technology over there. A lot would also depend on who's responsible for this. A government sanctioned attack would likely be using slightly more advanced weapons.

Either way, I just want to remind everyone this is just speculation. I'm not a paid expert on this matter, I don't have any first hand experience on Iran, and am strictly relying on my own personal experience in the situations. My confidence is getting boosted quite a bit because there's not a ton of disagreement on these issues within my circle of aircraft/military friends. We just can't scientifically explain some of the damage on that aircraft without blaming some sort of foreign objects entering the aircraft from numerous angles. We could very well be blowing smoke.

 

[Jump]

Well if people say the holes in the airliner look like they came from the side rather then from below maybe they are on to something. If you look at the map of where it lost contact there is a big mountain/hill to the side. With what ever the fuck this is on the top. SAM site?

 

[RodgerDodger]

View attachment 1089216
View attachment 1089207

https://archive.li/hfV4y

oh that’s not going to go over well. Especially given that it is crawling all over Iranian Social Media. Contrary to what you might think from Soleimani’s funeral, the bulk of the Iranian people are growing ever more pissy with regard to the IRGC. Little things like Iranians being the ones they are most prone to kill.

Submarines seem surprisingly accident prone.

List of submarine incidents since 2000 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I'd never heard of the incident where the San Francisco ran into a damn underwater mountain. And how poetic is it that we have a sub named after San Fran. That must be the gayest ship in the fleet.

it’s telling just how many of the US accidents involve subs running at periscope depth in the straights of Hormuz.

 

[Honka Honka Burning Love]

The old solutions do not work. We've been trying to pound the Middle East into dust for the last thirty-something years and all it's ever accomplished is death and destruction and a constantly-escalating incident.

I love ya HK, you are a cool guy but I gotta stop you right here.

We have not been trying to pound the Middle East into dust for 30 years, we have been daintily pussy footing our way around trying not to hurt feelings and after we drop a few half assed bomb strikes we pat the goatfuckers on the head and say "Here is a new billion dollar embassy for Isis to burn down."

If we were pounding the Middle East into dust this shit would have been done in 5 years without a single American foot on the ground.

 

[WallaceandGromit2]

A prediction of what will come.

DREAM of Jesus: PROPHECY GIVEN: Mutual Destruction of Iran and US (Babylon). JUDGMENT IS SET

Judgment is set. REPENT. Pray that you might be counted worthy to escape the things that are to come.

www.youtube.com

It is legit.

 

[blackmarketbaby]

The chinese and ABCs are buying up property all over the united states. A lot of the action on the coasts has slowed down but now they're coming into the flyover and buying up houses, condos, apartements, and commercial real estate. It's concerning that America allows such willy nilly property purchasing.

But i'm not going to lie, the chinese landlords (abcs) are a little more understanding than the previous jewish consortiums i've had to deal with. For one, they fix shit pretty quickly as opposed to waiting toward the end of the year as legally required.

e:

I should also say that chinese illegals are able to open businesses legally in a few states. They can't work or do any profit making, but they can hire legal employees and then reap the profits and cut themselves a salary. apparently, there's nothing illegal about that.

No one cares about your commie block bud. Bloomberg 2020

 

[Jump]

Hmm. Can anyone read goatfucker?

Ashkan Monfared on Twitter

“این یک قطعه پیدا شده در محل سقوط هواپیمای مسافربری اوکراینی است که جلوی خونه یکی از ساکنان محل افتاده. هواپیما چیزی شبیه این داره؟ سر موشک نیست؟”

twitter.com

 

[Coleslaw]

I thought this would be war. I'm glad to be proven wrong.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Depends on the type of missile, intercept vehicle, and target the missile was designed for. For the majority of plane and missile intercepts in lower atmosphere (dogfighting to cruising altitudes) you're correct. Generally speaking airburst ordnance is enough to cook off munitions, damage electronics and guidance systems. The higher you go, the more you start seeing solid core intercept vehicles (the SM-3'S kinetic warhead for example.)

EDIT: generally speaking use of explosive force as a primary means of destruction is prominent in missiles that are designed for ground targets.

All this spergery about SAMs reminded me about Starstreak, the most wickedly metal of all SAMs.

It's too bad the UK's arms industry has been so cucked by the EU (and US). I'm at least hoping the whole Brexit thing will obliquely improve NATO defense tech as a whole. Sharing tech with allies is great, bootstrapping it based on their needs is just retarded.

Right, it's a somewhat generic take, but I would argue that it is consistent with most shoulder fired missiles used over there. It could have even been a super old school AA gun that used projectile rotation distance measuring with air burst shells. That's more of a WWII technology, but we did run across a shitload of old equipment/technology over there. A lot would also depend on who's responsible for this. A government sanctioned attack would likely be using slightly more advanced weapons.

Not sure about MANPADS, but in the last 20 years or so, the Russians & Chinese have both fielded systems that are target-specific; being able to switch between a standard proximity fuse, or a kinetic/impact fuse. For the most part & my somewhat dated knowledge I believe it's a manual thing, but lately I wouldn't be surprised if there's newer SAMs that can do it automatically.

 

[L50LasPak]

I apologize but I'm massively lost in the woods here. I'm hearing Iran has basically already given up and the war's off and some shit about an airplane getting shot down (Ukraine gets it again!). The op doesn't cover everything because this thread got so awkwardly merged, are we living in Threads yet or not? Are we even going to war with these stupid bastards?

 

[Ow The Edge]

I apologize but I'm massively lost in the woods here. I'm hearing Iran has basically already given up and the war's off and some shit about an airplane getting shot down (Ukraine gets it again!). The op doesn't cover everything because this thread got so awkwardly merged, are we living in Threads yet or not? Are we even going to war with these stupid bastards?

At risk of repeating myself:

So, to recap, Iran's "great revenge" has consisted of:
-Killing around 30 [ed: turns out more like 50] of their own people in stampede at Qassem Soleimani's funeral
-Flinging shit-tier missiles at a random patch of desert, failing to hit a single American
-Offering to call it good and go home
-Shooting down a foreign civilian plane leaving their own capital, killing a large number of their own people plus random foreigners

 

[Synthetic Smug]

Hmm. Can anyone read goatfucker?

Ashkan Monfared on Twitter

“این یک قطعه پیدا شده در محل سقوط هواپیمای مسافربری اوکراینی است که جلوی خونه یکی از ساکنان محل افتاده. هواپیما چیزی شبیه این داره؟ سر موشک نیست؟”

twitter.com

I can't, but the automatic translation seems credible, given the simplicity of the statement:

This is a piece found at the crash site of a Ukrainian passenger plane that fell in front of a resident's home. Does the airplane have anything like this? Isn't it rocket?

EDIT:Formatting

 

[L50LasPak]

At risk of repeating myself:

You should PM someone who can edit the OP with this. In general the OP should be edited anyway, this is going by way too fast to keep track of.

 

[pull over dat ass too fat]

I can't, but the automatic translation seems credible, given the simplicity of the statement:

EDIT:Formatting

looks similar to this:

which is supposedly a Russian air-defense system. who knows if random-twitter-guy is credible though.

 

[who dare wins?]

Well if people say the holes in the airliner look like they came from the side rather then from below maybe they are on to something. If you look at the map of where it lost contact there is a big mountain/hill to the side. With what ever the fuck this is on the top. SAM site?

Looks like towelheads don't know how to operate SAM sites.

Also major update being black boxes of the jet have officially been recovered from the crash site.

'Find the truth': Black box recorders recovered from Iranian crash site of doomed passenger plane

The passenger plane, carrying 176 people, crashed on the outskirts of Tehran hours after Iran launched its missile attack on U.S. forces.

www.google.com.au

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Well if people say the holes in the airliner look like they came from the side rather then from below maybe they are on to something. If you look at the map of where it lost contact there is a big mountain/hill to the side. With what ever the fuck this is on the top. SAM site?

That's an observatory or something.

Far more interesting are the two obviously not-obvious military sites, just a little further to the west.

Lazy as fuck. They'll censor/edit ADA missile sites, but always forget motorpools... something the Soviets learned in Cuba.

*Edit: I count three empty S-400 launch vehicles, and what looks to be the radar/control vehicle.

And just to the north of those sites, is definitely an Iranian military base, complete with large ordnance bunkers.