- Joined
- Jan 9, 2020
There are several critical factors that will unfold over the next 5 days:
1. The CDC or the WHO will confirm or revoke the chinese statement that 2019-nCov is infectious during the incubation. This is the most important aspect bar none; and either confirms we are in a real global threat or not.
2a. If it IS NOT infectious, then we have averted a major disaster and regular quarantine rules will apply and we will not see a genuine pandemic. We will probably see it as a technical pandemic, but not the "full Monty".
2b. If we see the CDC or WHO confirm China's statement that IT IS Infectious during the incubation then we will see this virus most certainly become a global pandemic and confirmation of such within a week. Why? Because it means for every confirmed case there are vast amounts of unknown cases wandering around the globe. They are not showing symptoms, but are spreading it.
3. If point 2b is true, then governments will have to instigate quarantine of people who show no symptoms and for every newly confirmed case this will be dozens of people that person has been in contact with or around. People don't like being locked up for 14 days with other people when they may actually not be sick - thus they most certainly will get sick. So people will stop self-reporting to avoid having themselves and their family members quarantined. This will be the same in every country.
4. Because of the late revelation of point 2b (if it is confirmed), some actions must be taken to social distance which will include restricted air travel and social events. This will impact the entire global economy quickly.
1. The CDC or the WHO will confirm or revoke the chinese statement that 2019-nCov is infectious during the incubation. This is the most important aspect bar none; and either confirms we are in a real global threat or not.
2a. If it IS NOT infectious, then we have averted a major disaster and regular quarantine rules will apply and we will not see a genuine pandemic. We will probably see it as a technical pandemic, but not the "full Monty".
2b. If we see the CDC or WHO confirm China's statement that IT IS Infectious during the incubation then we will see this virus most certainly become a global pandemic and confirmation of such within a week. Why? Because it means for every confirmed case there are vast amounts of unknown cases wandering around the globe. They are not showing symptoms, but are spreading it.
3. If point 2b is true, then governments will have to instigate quarantine of people who show no symptoms and for every newly confirmed case this will be dozens of people that person has been in contact with or around. People don't like being locked up for 14 days with other people when they may actually not be sick - thus they most certainly will get sick. So people will stop self-reporting to avoid having themselves and their family members quarantined. This will be the same in every country.
4. Because of the late revelation of point 2b (if it is confirmed), some actions must be taken to social distance which will include restricted air travel and social events. This will impact the entire global economy quickly.