Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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An interesting statistic I would like to know is what the survival rate would be if you were not able to be properly treated by a hospital in the event hospitals become so overcrowded with cases? Basically what the survival rate would be if you just stayed home and used over the counter medications. Most hospitals have a limited number of spaces for quarantined patients and medical supplies only go so far, if numbers begin to balloon in nations outside of China what will happen to the have nots? It's easy for countries outside of China to say the patients infected are doing well and are in stable condition, but that is because they are receiving optimal treatment. It's pretty easy to keep someone alive from most short-term illnesses when you have access to things like peptides, steroids, adrenaline and mechanical lungs.
 

132 deaths
110 recovered

54% kill rate so far isn't promising.
On the bright side, both the confirmed cases and death count are now slowing to a linear progression instead. Which means either the drastic measures China is taking has an effect, or they're massively under-reporting cases. Either are still possible, but the (surprisingly) slow trickle of international cases gives me hope, since that means it's not THAT infectious to be exploding outside China itself.
 
An interesting statistic I would like to know is what the survival rate would be if you were not able to be properly treated by a hospital in the event hospitals become so overcrowded with cases? Basically what the survival rate would be if you just stayed home and used over the counter medications. Most hospitals have a limited number of spaces for quarantined patients and medical supplies only go so far, if numbers begin to balloon in nations outside of China what will happen to the have nots? It's easy for countries outside of China to say the patients infected are doing well and are in stable condition, but that is because they are receiving optimal treatment. It's pretty easy to keep someone alive from most short-term illnesses when you have access to things like peptides, steroids, adrenaline and mechanical lungs.

Stop thinking "stayed home with over the counter medications."

Start thinking "what's the survival rate if you're rotting in a huddled mass outside the overcrowded hospital in February temperatures with no medication at all, minus some Chinese Magic Juice and Tiger Lilly Root?"

I'm not terribly worried about modern, second, or even third world countries. It's only 4th world countries like China and India that I think are going to have a bad time with this. But I could be wrong.
 
problem is that thanks to globalism the rest of the world gets completely fucked by this too, had this happened a couple of centuries ago there wouldn't be a problem it would have spread in a few towns and villages and died down but now that the entire world is connected we fucked ourselves.
Totally worth it.

An interesting statistic I would like to know is what the survival rate would be if you were not able to be properly treated by a hospital in the event hospitals become so overcrowded with cases?
That's the only kind of data we're getting about the survival rate, since these deaths happened in China.
 
That's...incredibly dumb. How many days before the number of infected surpasses the entire human population in this "model"?
Um, well, that all depends. Can we really trust the population numbers that the Chinese government reports??
 
Interesting article on Bloomberg today regarding the issue of the incubation period and the 10 year old boy who was infectious during the incubation period. It is vague on the details but seems to imply that perhaps rather than not showing symptoms, that for healthy infants and perhaps adults that the symptoms are so mild they are undetectable except through exceptional diagnostic means such as swabbing.

It would imply we likely have tens of thousands of cases, but that most are having such mild symptoms that they are not being tested.

It also may indicate the virus is gaining strength to infect; but perhaps is also mutating to be less severe, thus the mortality rate at this time may be as low as 0.5%. Right now mortality rate percentages are based on known cases but it would seem that only 1 in 5 cases are likely known about, thus fatalities are always known because they leave bodies.

I'd suggest that we likely are going to see a mortality rate ending up (assuming no serious mutations), of around 0.5% - 1.5%. But a probable spread to millions.

But until the infectious nature of the incubation period is really understood to be true or not, I'd suggest that we likely we will not see a global pandemic - perhaps a technical one, but unlikely to be global.

But if we do, in a weird twist, it will be the children that will become the super-spreaders and grandpa and grandma will pay the price.

And most of those thousands will probably experience this as nothing more than a common cold. The contagious without symptoms in most cases is likely they are contagious before observable fever. Which is the big thing the health care observers will flag on. Which means it likely behaves and spreads like the common cold. So a key question would be at what point in the incubation period do they become contagious?

For all of our doom and gloom North America and Europe are not really the danger areas. They have robust health care systems, more importantly well integrated and functional public health reporting systems. So as we see from the steady reports of small numbers, the health system is watching for this. And responding.

if some other unconfirmed tales are to be given credence, this likely started in Wuhan a month earlier than believed, some point in early December. So much more time for movement than most are thinking, More concerning will be areas that do not have robust (or any) health reporting mechanisms. Follow the Belt and Road. East Africa. Central Asia. Has Venezuela popped up yet? That’s where it suddenly gets ugly.

Also watch Beijing and Hong Kong. Has all of the Beijing Government shut down and the city quarantined? Because all travel in Western China eventually goes fromWuhan through Beijing or Hong Kong. Never mind what they say, what are they doing? Have foreign diplomats started pulling out of Beijing? Are the roads and trains shuttered there? Right now they have 50 million in the quarantine zone. Has that jumped to 100+ mil?
 
And most of those thousands will probably experience this as nothing more than a common cold.
Uh... at what point are we in danger of it mutating and becoming a lot more serious?

The problem with these viruses is not the first wave. A few thousand people getting a virus and not noticing means a few thousand test beds for it to improve it's lethality.

It's funny hearing people say this is a nothingburger get over it. That's the attitude that gets people killed.
 
Uh... at what point are we in danger of it mutating and becoming a lot more serious?

The problem with these viruses is not the first wave. A few thousand people getting a virus and not noticing means a few thousand test beds for it to improve it's lethality.

It's funny hearing people say this is a nothingburger get over it. That's the attitude that gets people killed.

Also it doesn't help that the optimists in this thread are basing their hypothesis on Communist China's official numbers, While they still continue refuse health agencies into their country to help understand, contain and combat the outbreak, Its bad when Australia had to cultivate their own samples from patients instead of China just sending out the sample to be looked at.
 
Uh... at what point are we in danger of it mutating and becoming a lot more serious?

The problem with these viruses is not the first wave. A few thousand people getting a virus and not noticing means a few thousand test beds for it to improve it's lethality.

It's funny hearing people say this is a nothingburger get over it. That's the attitude that gets people killed.

Because they've seen this dance a few times before now. SARS, Ebola, Swine Flu. Tended to kill the shit out of chinks and Africans due to their shitty Healthcare systems but were relatively tame death-wise in The West.
 
Washburn students locked down during China coronavirus quarantine

TOPEKA, Kan. (KSNT) – The Chinese coronavirus outbreak has Washburn University students on lockdown in the country, according to college officials.

CHINA-CORONAVIRUS-LOCKDOWN.jpeg
In this Thursday, Jan. 23, 2020, file photo, Chinese paramilitary police wear face masks as they stand guard at Beijing Capital International Airport in Beijing. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, File)
Three Chinese students have been unable to come back from their hometown Wuhan, ground zero for the novel coronavirus outbreak and subsequent quarantine. Washburn Director of Public Relations Patrick Early confirmed travel restrictions by the Chinese government have kept them from coming back for the semester.

“None of them are ill,” Early said. “We hope that the travel restrictions will be lifted in the near future so that they can rejoin their classes. Our faculty will stand ready to help them catch up if the delay isn’t too long.”

The Chinese government has blocked off all public transportation in Wuhan and the surrounding cities in the country’s Hubei province, according to the Associated Press. Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam said it is cutting all rail links to mainland China and halving the number of flights. Some countries are making efforts to evacuate their citizens from mainland China.

AP-CORONAVIRUS-IN-CHINA.jpg
(AP Graphic/Phil Holm and Ken Moritsugu)
While the students are locked in affected mainland China, Early said the Kansas Secretary of Health and Environment has not reported any cases of coronavirus at any Kansas college. However, the department is investigating a possible Douglas County coronavirus case. The resident is currently quarantined at a Lawrence hospital.

Early did confirm Chinese high school students are coming for a campus visit this week.

“We do want to assure the campus community that every precaution is being taken for their visit,” Early said. “They are from the Quzhou and Jinhua region, more than 600 miles from Wuhan. In addition, these students are boarding students confined to the school with little access to the general public during their entire semester and there were no confirmed cases in the area when the students left for their trip.”

Shanghai Pudong Airport security screened the students before they departed China, and will be screened before entering the U.S., according to Early.

“We look forward to the visit of our high school student visitors as well as to the swift return of our Chinese students,” Early said. “Our international students are a vital part of our effort to bring global understanding to our entire learning community in an increasingly interconnected world.”
 
But if we do, in a weird twist, it will be the children that will become the super-spreaders and grandpa and grandma will pay the price.
Just like flu. It’s possible, as other have noted above, that they just had very mild symptoms. Kids especially are not reliable reporters. I remember mine at that age never mentioning they felt ill until they actually fell over..
There are still people that want antibiotics for treating viruses.
oh yes, the nice knock on effect of people pumping themselves full of unnecessary antibiotics and fuelling resistance to whatever bacteria they’re brewing too...
That is the guy who claimed ebola can be spread by aerosol.
It’s possible, under specific circumstances. If I remember rightly some work was done with the Reston strain that hit the USA and they managed to get droplet transmission in monkeys. As far as I recall it wasn’t that applicable to the real world because they had to set it up just so, but it was proof of principle.
 
Some news from Germany.


TL;DR in English (feel free to ask me if anything is unclear):

Lufthansa is stopping all flights to China until the 9th of February. You also can't book flights to China until the end of February.

The German military will fetch Germans that are still stuck in the province Hubei 'in the next few days' and bring them to Germany. Some of those 90 Germans were residing in Wuhan. They're planning to keep them in quarantine for 14 days - but in the end that's up to the Frankfurt health authority to decide.

The 4 infected Germans (three men and one woman) seem to be doing well so far and are 'symptom free' according to the head physician.

---

Personal opinion: The news are contradicting themselves and it only leads to people here being very unsure about the whole situation. First one of the men has flu-like symptoms and that's why he ends up in the hospital/quarantine, then none of them suddenly have symptoms, but earlier they said that only people who show symptoms get tested. So what is it now.
 
Some news from Germany.


Personal opinion: The news are contradicting themselves and it only leads to people here being very unsure about the whole situation. First one of the men has flu-like symptoms and that's why he ends up in the hospital/quarantine, then none of them suddenly have symptoms, but earlier they said that only people who show symptoms get tested. So what is it now.

the four were probably in Wuhan recently, and someone sneezed.
 
Interesting article about the Chinese scientists who were tossed from the Canadian lab. Espionage much?



China and Viruses: The Case of Dr. Xiangguo Qiu
By Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany ShohamJanuary 29, 2020

Dr.-Xiangguo-Qiu-photo-via-Twitter-feed-of-Public-Policy-Forum-300x215.jpg

Dr. Xiangguo Qiu, photo via Twitter feed of Public Policy Forum

BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,429, January 29, 2020

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: In July 2019, a rare event occurred in Canada. Suspected of espionage for China, a group of Chinese virologists was forcibly evicted from the Canadian National Microbiology Laboratory (NML) in Winnipeg, where they had been running parts of the Special Pathogen Program of Canada’s public health agency. One of the procedures conducted by the team was the infection of monkeys with the most lethal viruses found on Earth. Four months prior to the Chinese team’s eviction, a shipment containing two exceptionally virulent viruses—Ebola and Nipah—was sent from the NML to China. When the shipment was traced, it was held to be improper and a “possible policy breach.”

The scope of the 2019 incident involving the discovery of a possibly serious security breach at Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory (NML) in Winnipeg is much broader than the group of Chinese virologists who were summarily evicted from the lab. The main culprit behind the breach seems to have been Dr. Xiangguo Qiu, an outstanding Chinese scientist born in Tianjin.

Until recently the head of the Vaccine Development and Antiviral Therapies section of the Special Pathogens Program, Qiu received her MD degree from Hebei Medical University in China in 1985 and came to Canada for graduate studies in 1996. She was later affiliated with the Institute of Cell Biology and the Department of Pediatrics and Child Health at the University of Manitoba, Winnipeg. She was not engaged in the study of pathogens while at that institute.

But a shift took place in Qiu’s research work. Ever since 2006, she has been studying powerful viruses—Ebola most of all—at the NML. Both of the viruses that were surreptitiously shipped from the NML to China were studied by Qiu in 2014 (as well as other viruses, including Machupo, Junin, Rift Valley Fever, Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever, and Hendra). But she paid greatest attention to Ebola for the entirely legitimate aim of developing effective prophylaxis and treatment for the infected.

Inevitably, Qiu’s work included a variety of Ebola wild strains—among them the most virulent, which has an 80% lethality rate—and relied heavily on experimental infection of monkeys, including via the airways. She made remarkable strides, and was granted the Governor General’s Innovation Award in 2018.

So far so good—or so it seems.

Qiu is married to Chinese scientist Keding Cheng, a bacteriologist who shifted to virology and who is also affiliated with the NML. Qiu maintains a close bond with China and visits frequently, and many Chinese students from a notable range of Chinese scientific facilities have joined her at the NML over the past decade.

Of those facilities, four are believed to be involved in Chinese biological weapons development. They are:

  • Institute of Military Veterinary, Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Changchun
  • Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu Military Region
  • Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hubei
  • Institute of Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing
All four facilities collaborated with Qiu on her Ebola research. The Institute of Military Veterinary also joined a study on the Rift Valley fever virus, while the Institute of Microbiology joined a study on the Marburg virus. Notably, the drug used in the latter study—Favipiravir—has been successfully tested by the Chinese Academy of Military Medical Sciences against Ebola and other viruses. (The drug has the designation JK-05; it is originally a Japanese patent registered in China in 2006.)

The Chinese interest in Ebola, Nipah, Marburg, and Rift Valley fever might possibly be beyond scientific and medical needs. Significantly, only the Nipah virus is naturally found in China or neighboring countries. That being the case, the interface between Qiu and China is a priori highly suspicious.

The shipment of the two viruses from NML to China is alarming unto itself, but it also raises the question of what other shipments of viruses or other items might have been made to China between 2006 and 2018.

Qiu made at least five trips over the academic year 2017-18 alone to the above-mentioned Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, which was certified for BSL4 in January 2017. In August 2017, the National Health Commission of China approved research activities involving the Ebola, Nipah, and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever viruses at the Wuhan facility, and in March 2019, the Chinese published their tour de force.

When the shipment from Canada was uncovered, security access was revoked for Qiu, her husband, and the Chinese students. IT specialists entered Qiu’s office after hours to gain access to her computer, and her regular trips to China were halted.

Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary-general of NATO, said at a news conference that he can’t comment on the case, but appeared to suggest the possibility of espionage. “What I can say in general is that we have seen increased efforts by the nations to spy on NATO allies in different ways,” he said.

Qiu’s research has not only been conducted on behalf of Canada and China. In 2018, she collaborated with three scientists from the US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Maryland, studying post-exposure immunotherapy for two Ebola viruses and Marburg virus in monkeys. Those activities were part of a study supported by the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

The multiplicity of Chinese grants, all on the national level, supporting the work done under Qiu’s lead at the NML is impressive:

  • National Key Program for Infectious Disease of China
  • National Key Research and Development Program of China
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China International Cooperation and Exchange Program
  • Special Foundation of President for Ebola virus research from the Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • President’s International Fellowship Initiative from the Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • China National Key Subject of Drug Innovation
  • Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • National Natural Science Foundation Award, Ministry of Science and Technology
  • National Science and Technology Major Projects
  • Beijing Advanced Innovation Center for Structure Biology
  • Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China
It is still possible that Qiu and her husband will return to work at the NML, but a good deal of intelligence analysis and assessment will be required. The Canadian Security Intelligence Service has a serious challenge on its hands.

(JS-The Canadians would have to be world-class fools to let those people even NEAR the NML!)
 
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