Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[Pokemonquistador2]

What? that wasnt for a 6 pack?

Sounds like they're talking about a single bottle. Given bar pricing for booze in some areas, it doesn't seem beyond the realm of possibility.

 

[RodgerDodger]

I hate to keep being the bearer of bad news, but here's the chart again:
View attachment 1121803

some things about that chart feel kind of off. It seemingly presumes this all started in early January. But we now know the first confirmed and infected patient was admitted to a hospital on Dec 8. Which probably puts the date of infection or exposure somewhere around the last week of November.

one other thing to keep in the back of your mind. These are basically pneumonia deaths. In most cases pneumonia deaths in elderly or already severely compromised patients. One question I have not seen anybody ask is “what is the normal seasonal death rate from pneumonia or other respiratory impairment in the province?” And “ what is the difference between that and those designated Coronavirus?”. 170 deaths sounds scary. But in a population of 11 or 50 million in the core area, it’s not really outside the background noise of normal deaths of old and very sick people. Is Coronavirus happening above and beyond the normal expected seasonal deaths? Is it simply supplanting the normal expected deaths, ie it simply this seasons flavor of pneumonia? What are the baselines?

I would also like to see a bit more breakdown on those 170 deaths to date. What are the age ranges? How many were elderly or otherwise compromised vs young/healthy? How many were in hospital or in healthcare facilities before being infected? Someone above noted that all the deaths so far that at least have been admitted to and counted have been in the Wuhan area, in spite of infections found in 20 or so countries. We know the first or second patient detected had surgery before detection thus infecting at least 14 caregivers. How many deaths were then from already compromised patients in that facility subjected to cross contamination from the healthcare providers? The sharp clear nexus of reported deaths vs the worldwide spread of reported infections make me suspect that we won’t see many overseas deaths until or unless it gains hold within health care institutions and threatens already at risk patients. The people healthy enough to travel are healthy enough to probably not die. And there isn’t a huge crossover between tourists and nursing homes and ICU’s. When it does get into a nursing home, it will be very very bad.

and yes I know one guy died in the Philippines. He was an end stage AIDS patient. Pneumonia is how end stage AIDS patients die. Whether or not a Coronavirus played some major part or it was some other form of pneumonia as well is mostly unknowable Conjecture.

 

[Bat Soup Reviews]

You've brought up an interesting point. When do you think the Chinese will start triaging virus patients? At the rate things are going, soon there won't be enough medical people, buildings, or supplies to treat all the sick. I see no alternative to triage.

Aren't they effectively already doing this? There are only so many ventilators per hospital for the gravely ill.
Considering the stuff coming out of china 5+ days ago was showing the hospitals as being overcrowded and the numbers have gone up massively since then, how bad is it really in these hospitals?

 

[Atomic Wangler]

Speaking of the horrifying conditions of Chinese wet markets, does anyone have that video of the Chinese lady making some kind of baked good while being swarmed by insects? Some of them wind up being rolled up with the food. It really illustrates how fucked Chinese markets are.

EDIT: Found it.

Bees swarm calm street vendor in China

Watch as this street vendor prepares a batch of Mochi cakes despite the presence of thousands of deadly bees swarming the area as the rolling pin plots its c...

m.youtube.com

Just get a bug net.

 

[MadStan]

I hate to keep being the bearer of bad news, but here's the chart again:
View attachment 1121803

If your chart holds true, then we will see a divergence shortly where the apparent mortality rate climbs and matches your chart, but the cases do not - giving the appearance of a higher mortality rate, but less cases. Why? Because by the time you get above 20,000 cases, no one has the medical staff or time to do verified diagnostic testing on cases as they are too busy with the tends of thousands of patients dying, and they will cease using "confirmed" numbers and just roll with "suspected cases".

You've brought up an interesting point. When do you think the Chinese will start triaging virus patients? At the rate things are going, soon there won't be enough medical people, buildings, or supplies to treat all the sick. I see no alternative to triage.

Well, they will be there now. When the confirmed were at 4500, they had 6000 additional under testing and in care. So now with 7000, it is would be reasonable to assume they have and are caring for an additional 10,000.

They are already at breaking point. And beyond. NOW. Soon they will use sports stadiums.

They aren't building a new hospital, they are building a giant crematorium that looks like a hospital.

 

[⠠⠠⠅⠑⠋⠋⠁⠇⠎ ⠠⠠⠊⠎ ⠠⠠⠁ ⠠⠠⠋⠁⠛]

What? that wasnt for a 6 pack?

It's New Zealand. The New Zealand dollar is pegged 1:1 to the Chinese Yuan, it isn't very valuable.

 

[Arctic Fox]

Was watching the Metokur stream and this was recommended right after it ended.

Let's players should all kill themselves, but this made me chuckle.

 

[Banh Xeo]

Speaking of the horrifying conditions of Chinese wet markets, does anyone have that video of the Chinese lady making some kind of baked good while being swarmed by insects? Some of them wind up being rolled up with the food. It really illustrates how fucked Chinese markets are.

I don’t have any video but have been to a number of wet markets in a number of Asian countries. Literally every unhygienic scenario you can imagine exists, and is the norm.

 

[Botchy Galoop]

A lot of pandemics have waves of infection and it’s never been totally pinned down why. It’s thought to be a number of things, from schools being on vacation or not, through to different waves affecting rich/poor. But what usually (not always, but often for a novel pathogen) happens is that wave 1 is medium, and smaller, then wave two is worst, then next waves are sort of echos of it and far less bad. For something like flu, a mutation may occur which increases the severity simply because enough people are infected in wave 1 for it to have a good chance of happening. Wave 2 can then be influenced a lot by behaviour. Imagine a modern flu where if you’re sick you stay home and if you’re only mildly ill you can be active - more mild spreaders are transmitting disease and so the next wave is milder.
Now think about 1918. Men crowded together in trenches, many malnourished, all stressed unbearably. The mildly sick stay put. The sickest get collected together into field hospitals which have huge through traffic of other troops. Now your severely ill ones are the ones spreading disease. A huge number of 1918 patients died of secondary bacterial infections as well as the virus itself. A crowded society with significant rural poverty is always going to be hit harder by a virus like wu flu.
Waves also depend on seasons, population movement etc.
So the answer is: probably quite soon. And probably worse for a bit, then if we get our act together probably much bettef

If anyone wants to read more about the 1918 influenza in America, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/ this is an interesting read. I just happen to be somewhat of a student of this particular pandemic because my Grandfather was an young volunteer at ground zero, Camp Funston, Kansas, when this plague reared it's head. It is thought that the U.S. was actually the original source of this world-wide plague,

The history of how this flu became worse the second time around, after mutation, and also how the U.S. Gov't reacted when it became clear that they had a pandemic on their hands is fascinating. Like China is doing now, the U.S. did its utmost to downplay and massage the news. I can only hope that Corona-chan is not a repeat of the 1918 pandemic.

Spoiler

(Grandpa survived though never forgot the horrors of that Camp, and he went on to become a favored driver for General Pershing. He was one of a few who knew how to work on the new-fangled horseless carriages, so he spent the wartime in motorpool.)

 

[DefCon Dumb]

'The Great Influenza' by John M. Barry is also a fascinating read. It answered my questions as to why looking up old newspapers in microfiche form got me next to no results when I was trying to read original Spanish Flu stuff. There was a war on & nations embroiled in that mess didn't allow their press to mention flu - it might give aid & comfort to the enemy AND... heaven forbid we PANIC people. So - outright lies & complete bullshit was the order of the day & the flu raged on.

I doubt a more open approach would have changed the epidemic curves but many communities wouldn't have been caught flat footed.

 

[Dolphin Lundgren]

Update about the Wuhan plague ship arriving in the US following evacuation of American citizens from Wuhan, China.


https://www.foxla.com/news/passenge...-from-wuhan-arrives-at-march-air-reserve-base

Spoiler: Text

RIVERSIDE, Calif. - A jet airliner carrying a reported 201 American evacuees from Wuhan, China landed at March Air Reserve Base in Riverside County Wednesday morning.

The flight landed just after 8 a.m.

Health officials say the deadly coronavirus originated in Wuhan and the latest numbers reflect 5,974 cases in China.

Those aboard reportedly include diplomats and their families, along with businessmen.


Officials provided an update late Wednesday morning.

The aircraft was originally set to land at the Ontario International Airport, but was diverted to the military base.
RELATED: Flight bound for Ontario Airport carrying U.S. citizens from Wuhan diverted

Healthcare workers began setting up mobile health clinics at March Air Reserve Base around 4 a.m. They were prepared to give evacuees another round of medical screenings once the plane lands in Riverside County.

The plane first landed in Alaska from China where all passengers underwent a medical screening at the airport and were all cleared.

“All passengers had already been screened twice before they left China. They were monitored on the flight and in Anchorage, passengers were screened twice more and were approved to continue onto California by the CDC. In California, they will continue medical screenings and will finish the repatriation process,” Anne Zink, the Chief Medical Officer for the State of Alaska said.

RELATED:

• First case of coronavirus confirmed in L.A. County

• Human-to-human transmission confirmed in China coronavirus outbreak

• How to avoid getting sick on a plane — and in general — as coronavirus, flu and common cold spread

• LAX passenger quarantined after showing potential coronavirus symptoms

Local officials said steps are being taken to ensure there is no threat to public health.

"While we realize that many people are nervous right now, understand that we are committed to your safety and are taking all precautions to ensure both the passengers and our residents are safe," Riverside County Supervisor Jeff Hewitt said.

The plane touched down at March ARB at 8:11 a.m. The passengers remained at the base and were cordoned off from military personnel. While they are not under mandatory quarantine orders, they are expected to remain under observation at the base for 72 hours.

"When I talked to them about their willingness to stay to be fully evaluated over three days or so, all of those that I talked to were very willing to do that. ... They want to protect their family, they want to protect others," said Christopher Braden, a deputy director at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The passengers will be checked for temperature and respiratory symptoms every three hours over the course of the next three days, officials said.

Asked if any passengers will be allowed to leave the base before the three-day evaluation period is up, Rear Admiral Dr. Nancy Knight, director of the Division of Global Health Protection at the CDC, said, "Any discussion about departure will be just that, a discussion."

Braden said that after the three-day evaluation period, passengers will have the option to go home, but they will continue to be monitored for the remainder of the virus' two-week incubation period by their local public health agency.

"If we think that a person is a danger to the community, we can institute an individual quarantine for that person, and we will," said Braden.

The coronavirus outbreak was first detected in December in the industrial city of Wuhan in the Hubei province of central China. Since then, more than 5,975 cases have been reported in China, with at least 132 deaths, and the virus has been confirmed in patients in a handful of other nations, including the United States. As of midday Wednesday, five cases have been confirmed in the United States -- including one in Los Angeles County and one in Orange County.

City News Service contributed to this report.

Here's another article from the Orange County Register which includes the temporary housing where the evacuees will stay while being monitored.

Coronavirus evacuees will spend at least 3 days at Riverside County air base

Plane carrying 195 passengers from Wuhan region of China arrived at March Air Reserve Base early Wednesday.

www.ocregister.com

This one says they'll get checked every 12 hours, not 3.

 

[Twinkie]

I get why they're doing it but it seems dumb when there's still no restriction of flights to or from China in the U.S.

 

[Kekepalmer]

This doesn't really make sense. I get that if you just walk past someone who's sick you're probably fine (as long as they don't cough in your face), but "close contact over a period of time" doesn't connect with some of the cases. Like there was a bus driver in Japan who got it from a Chinese tourist riding on his bus. But I guess "close contact" and "period of time" are conveniently unclear terms. How close of contact? How long of time?

I mean, in my opinion, marinating in wuflu air in a tin box for 45 minutes would be close enough contact.

 

[Keystone]

You've brought up an interesting point. When do you think the Chinese will start triaging virus patients? At the rate things are going, soon there won't be enough medical people, buildings, or supplies to treat all the sick. I see no alternative to triage.

Spoiler: i mean there certainly is one alternative if it gets bad enough

 

[DNA_JACKED]

If anyone wants to read more about the 1918 influenza in America, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/ this is an interesting read. I just happen to be somewhat of a student of this particular pandemic because my Grandfather was an young volunteer at ground zero, Camp Funston, Kansas, when this plague reared it's head. It is thought that the U.S. was actually the original source of this world-wide plague,

The history of how this flu became worse the second time around, after mutation, and also how the U.S. Gov't reacted when it became clear that they had a pandemic on their hands is fascinating. Like China is doing now, the U.S. did its utmost to downplay and massage the news. I can only hope that Corona-chan is not a repeat of the 1918 pandemic.

Spoiler

(Grandpa survived though never forgot the horrors of that Camp, and he went on to become a favored driver for General Pershing. He was one of a few who knew how to work on the new-fangled horseless carriages, so he spent the wartime in motorpool.)

The article misses two key points:

1. The virus did not begin in America. It was brought here by, you guessed it, the Chinese. In 1915 a particularly nasty strain of flu had popped up, and it struck again in 1916 in norther china. Many young men from these villages were being transported across canada to board boats destined for Europe, to help did the trenches. While traveling across, many of the men fell ill with severe flu symptoms, then later pneumonia. This occurred months before the Funston outbreak, but was kept top secret because the chinese were technically neutral in WW1, and the western powers did not want the competing spheres of influence in chins to start fighting while war was occurring in Europe.

2. The Spanish flu was quite unusual, in that it was killing healthy young patients, yet weak or elderly were living. The article says this, but doesnt mention that this is thought to be due to mustard gas, a carcinogenic mutagen that was widely used in europe, and attacked the membranes were the flu virus likes to live. The result was a virus strain that was WAY too aggressive, mutated outside of natural progression, and the soldiers brought it back with them after the war was over.

The mustard gas is not likely to occur again, so even with the Novel Coronavirus being manipulated by human engineers, I doubt it will ever be as aggressive as spanish flu was, simply because natural selection is not being pushed with mutagens this time around.

Another fun fact, that spanish flu? It was H1N1. The same H1N1 the world went bonkers over in 2009. That link wasnt found until after the 2009 outbreak, when a frozen specimen of spanish flu was found. Obviously they were not identical, because virus mutations and rapid lifecycles, but the two were undoubtedly of the same family.

 

[MirnaMinkoff]

'The Great Influenza' by John M. Barry is also a fascinating read. It answered my questions as to why looking up old newspapers in microfiche form got me next to no results when I was trying to read original Spanish Flu stuff. There was a war on & nations embroiled in that mess didn't allow their press to mention flu - it might give aid & comfort to the enemy AND... heaven forbid we PANIC people. So - outright lies & complete bullshit was the order of the day & the flu raged on.

I doubt a more open approach would have changed the epidemic curves but many communities wouldn't have been caught flat footed.

“The plague of the Spanish lady” by Richard Collier is also a book about it, with tons of first person accounts of the pandemic.

 

[Fatafata]

I'm more offended that those bottles of Mexican pisswater almost cost 7 bills to buy.

It's like US $4 a bottle, inclusive of tax. At a bar. Pretty cheap by Intl standards, but that city is a shithole even by kiwi standards.

 

[Shoggoth]

Some things which have been percolating my pistachios
- the Chinese extreme reaction isn't necessarily because they know the virus is an escaped weapon. They could just know it's deadly, aggressive, there's no vaccine for it, and that it was covered up during the initial stages, which spells disaster, especially when the Chinese government probably knows how bad the sanitary conditions are. They probably know they're fucked and are acting in desperation.
- if this turns out to be a global scale disaster and nobody manages to get a hold of Corona Chan, will there be a baby boom afterwards?
- how many alphabets are celebrating right now and using this mess to counter intelligence the Chinese? How many spies will get outed when they slip or their cover is blown in the west?

 

[Ahriman]

Fascinating and appropiate video.

 

[Glad I couldn't help]

Can't read Chinese, but it is reported at Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said it is necessary to let Taiwan into the WHO to help the coronavirus outbreak [EDIT: English Article].

The Chief Public Health Officer of Canada has tweeted about the need to stop racism and stigmatizing comments on social media towards Chinese and (East) Asian people, that the Chinese community and all travellers from effected regions are key part in preventing the spread of the disease.