Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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Measles has an r0 of 18 or thereabouts.
Measles is absurdly infectious to an unprotected population, but it bothers me when people try to use it to compare to novel pathogens, because r0 implies no herd immunity. Plus I think measles might actually have the highest known r0, so people who use it to downplay the infectiousness of other diseases are essentially picking an outlier to make their point. Huge "go fuck yourself" to anyone who doesn't vaccinate though.

Btw Otter, what do you think about the reports on reinfection of the virus? It seems like ridiculously quick turnaround, esp for a virus that health organizations have reported isn't mutating significantly. Do you think the antigens are mutating faster than the rest of the virus, or is it just ridiculously good at hiding from the immune system (in which case are people really recovering fully)? I don't know where the actual reports are about this, I just heard about it from some people in this thread.

Relax. Remember, worst case is pneumonia, so if you're in a bad area quarantine yourself, don't stress, eat well, and rest plenty. And if the cough gets worse or you feel any symptoms of pneumonia get profesional help. If you're in the west, contact the authorities asap.
I've had annoying unproductive cough and sniffling for the past couple days but no fever. My closest colleague came back from Beijing around the week of Jan 12th & there are some other Chinese nationals in the lab who I don't know but no one has appeared sick from what I can tell (including afforementioned colleague). I'm monitoring it and am more than ready to go to the doc if it gets worse.
 
More shit from the Chinese Twitter account:

A poem thanking Corona-Chan on showing the OP the greatness of Chinese unity and human kindness etc etc. Classic circlejerking over the virus being a test on the Chinese people's love for their empire and culture and so on.

I'll translate the first parts from the 3rd pic: (Keep in mind I haven't touched this sort of fancy Chinese since I dropped it in the US equivalent of Grade 10)
The Chinese people have suffered many hardships,
amounting to five thousand years.
Nevertheless,
our culture declines in peace and prosperous times
only uniting in times of trouble.
The harsher the calamity the more we band together,
preventing the danger of our extinction.
I'm all for a good nationalist poem but this is a bruh moment as the hip kids say.

Moving on, the first pic shows the respondent blasting their friend for advising them to eat 双黄连 aka Coptis Chinesis. The second pic is another friend advising the OP to buy more tissue paper to prepare for the woo-eating idiots' inevitable diarrhea.

This is on the Singaporean army being reduced to sweatshop workers slaving around the clock to provide 520 million masks for Lil Pooh and the Yin Yang Twins.

On China's civilized neighbour this time, the Japanese official in charge of getting the Japanese peoples out has committed suicide after the amount of cases increased to 20 in Japan.

As per my second Tweet report, the herbal solution as discussed above was actually meant for poultry consumption to guard them from the avian flu. Yet after receiving dubious support from the Xi`An Jiaotong University's report, the manufacturer sold these babies like hotcakes and now they can't meet demand from being the latest woo craze.

Finally, the CCP is formally requesting the Red Cross relinquish all supplies in Wuhan to them as they're taking over.
Not to say the Red Cross did a bang-up job in the first place, but all those supplies are basically toast now as you know the corruption will definitely vacuum up all the medical supplies and etc into the nether realm.
 
Measles is absurdly infectious to an unprotected population, but it bothers me when people try to use it to compare to novel pathogens, because r0 implies no herd immunity. Plus I think measles might actually have the highest known r0, so people who use it to downplay the infectiousness of other diseases are essentially picking an outlier to make their point. Huge "go fuck yourself" to anyone who doesn't vaccinate though.

Btw Otter, what do you think about the reports on reinfection of the virus? It seems like ridiculously quick turnaround, esp for a virus that health organizations have reported isn't mutating significantly. Do you think the antigens are mutating faster than the rest of the virus, or is it just ridiculously good at hiding from the immune system (in which case are people really recovering fully)? I don't know where the actual reports are about this, I just heard about it from some people in this thread.


I've had annoying unproductive cough and sniffling for the past couple days but no fever. My closest colleague came back from Beijing around the week of Jan 12th & there are some other Chinese nationals in the lab who I don't know but no one has appeared sick from what I can tell (including afforementioned colleague). I'm monitoring it and am more than ready to go to the doc if it gets worse.
I bring up measles because there's a large pocket of anti vax crap in the area here, and a recent alarm about an infected person using the airport. perfect little storm, basically.

I haven't seen verifiable reports of reinfection, just rumor. I'm curious as well.
 
More shit from the Chinese Twitter account:

A poem thanking Corona-Chan on showing the OP the greatness of Chinese unity and human kindness etc etc. Classic circlejerking over the virus being a test on the Chinese people's love for their empire and culture and so on.

I'll translate the first parts from the 3rd pic: (Keep in mind I haven't touched this sort of fancy Chinese since I dropped it in the US equivalent of Grade 10)
The Chinese people have suffered many hardships,
amounting to five thousand years.
Nevertheless,
our culture declines in peace and prosperous times
only uniting in times of trouble.
The harsher the calamity the more we band together,
preventing the danger of our extinction.
I'm all for a good nationalist poem but this is a bruh moment as the hip kids say.

Moving on, the first pic shows the respondent blasting their friend for advising them to eat 双黄连 aka Coptis Chinesis. The second pic is another friend advising the OP to buy more tissue paper to prepare for the woo-eating idiots' inevitable diarrhea.

This is on the Singaporean army being reduced to sweatshop workers slaving around the clock to provide 520 million masks for Lil Pooh and the Yin Yang Twins.

On China's civilized neighbour this time, the Japanese official in charge of getting the Japanese peoples out has committed suicide after the amount of cases increased to 20 in Japan.

As per my second Tweet report, the herbal solution as discussed above was actually meant for poultry consumption to guard them from the avian flu. Yet after receiving dubious support from the Xi`An Jiaotong University's report, the manufacturer sold these babies like hotcakes and now they can't meet demand from being the latest woo craze.

Finally, the CCP is formally requesting the Red Cross relinquish all supplies in Wuhan to them as they're taking over.
Not to say the Red Cross did a bang-up job in the first place, but all those supplies are basically toast now as you know the corruption will definitely vacuum up all the medical supplies and etc into the nether realm.

Only twenty cases and officials are already hara kiri'ing themselves? I'd expect them to at least wait until that amount of them are dead.
 
One of the two Chinese nationals with coronavirus in the UK was a foreign student at University of York.


One of the two people to test positive for the new coronavirus in the UK is a student at the University of York.

The pair - who are related - were confirmed as having coronavirus after being taken ill at a hotel in York.

A spokesman for the university said the risk of the infection being passed on to other people on campus was low.

Public Health England (PHE) said it was making "good progress" in tracing people who have come into close contact with the two Chinese nationals.


The university spokesman said information from PHE "suggests that the student did not come into contact with anybody on campus whilst they had symptoms".

"Investigations are ongoing to fully establish this," he added.

He said the immediate concern was for the affected student and their family, along with the health and wellbeing of staff, students and visitors.

The Department of Health said no further positive cases had been confirmed in the UK by 14:00 GMT on Saturday, with 201 people testing negative from 203 tests.

PHE said those who have been in close contact with the pair - defined as being within two metres for 15 minutes or more - will receive health advice.

Professor Sharon Peacock, director of its National Infection Service said staff do not currently have "any idea" how many people that might be.

The new coronavirus has caused the deaths of 259 people so far - all in China, where the virus was first discovered.

It comes as the 83 Britons evacuated from Wuhan, in Hubei province, on Friday began two weeks in quarantine.

The two York patients, whose diagnosis was announced on Friday morning, were staying at the Staycity apartment-hotel when medics were called.


Staycity said that the hotel will stay open and the apartment used by the two patients disinfected.

They are now being treated at a specialist infectious diseases unit at the Royal Victoria Infirmary in Newcastle and residents of the city are being reassured they are not at risk.

Meanwhile, in China, cases of the virus have reached nearly 12,000 - with more than 100 cases reported in 22 other countries.

On Friday, the Foreign Office said it would withdraw some non-essential embassy staff and their families from mainland China.

It said the ambassador and staff who needed to continue "critical work" would remain, while British nationals in China would continue to have access to 24/7 consular assistance.

Some 83 UK nationals and 27 others were flown into the UK on a chartered evacuation flight from the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the outbreak of coronavirus began.

Before boarding the flight, passengers had to sign papers agreeing to an enforced period of isolation.

The UK nationals were taken by coach to Arrowe Park Hospital on the Wirral on Friday evening.

They will spend 14 days in quarantine - but not solitary confinement - in two apartment blocks normally used to house nurses, who have been moved to local hotels.

The UK evacuees are being put up in fully-furnished rooms, including kitchens, and provided with food and laundry facilities. Families are being kept together, with toys and baby equipment available.

They will have access to a team of medical staff who will closely monitor their condition and any developing symptoms.

Matt Raw, one of those in quarantine, told BBC News that he and his family "were extremely glad to be here".

He said he, his wife and his mother were staying in a four-bedroom apartment, along with another woman and her daughter. He stressed they were feeling fine and had "an army" of people looking after them.

Mr Raw said there was an area outside where they were able to get some fresh air, adding they were "allowed contact with anybody within the facility, as long as we're wearing face masks".

'Military-grade cleansing process'
The coach company which transported the evacuees to the hospital said health officials advised its drivers did not need to wear protective clothing for the journey.

Horseman Coaches said five drivers will enter a two-week period of isolation at home as a precaution.

The vehicles used will also be subject to a "military-grade cleansing process", the company added.

On Thursday, the UK's four chief medical officers raised the risk level of the illness from low to moderate and the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared an international public health emergency.


Media captionProf Chris Whitty: "There is a high chance that people will get better and end up with a relatively minor disease"

Virus experts said they were not surprised to see cases in the UK but there was no reason to panic.

Meanwhile, the United States declared a public health emergency on Friday night, with President Donald Trump signing an order which will temporarily bar entry for most foreign nationals who have travelled in China within the last 14 days.

On Saturday, Australia said it too would refuse entry to all non-citizens arriving from China.

On Friday, it emerged that the number of new coronavirus cases worldwide had overtaken that of the 2003 Sars epidemic.

  • However, the mortality rate is currently low, at 2% - less than Sars, at 10% and Ebola, at 70%, WHO's chief medical officer says.
The death rate could yet go up if more of those in hospital die - or down, if it's discovered there are many other people with mild symptoms.
 
Measles has an r0 of 18 or thereabouts.

yup, ticks are a massive problem. No such thing as a clean tick, their habitats are expanding as the climate warms and as deer and other vectors increase in numbers. Tick bourne stuff is a whole thread in itself, but you’d be absolutely horrified if you fancy going down the tick bourne illness in the USA rabbithole.


Add some zeroes. 1918 flu infected 1/3 of the planet.
Yep. When there's weird viruses, it's almost either from bats, rats, or ticks.
Ebola... bat
2019-nCov... bat
SARS... bat
Hendra... flying foxes aka....... BATS
CCHF... ticks
SFTF... ticks
Lyme disease... ticks
MERS... bats
Black death... rats
Lassa fever... rats
AIDS... chimpanzee

So with AIDS being an outlier, it's either rats, bats, or on rare occasions, ticks.

Good, when will it reach zero?
Journalists lose their jobs, I laugh.
Learn how to code.
 
Yep. When there's weird viruses, it's almost either from bats, rats, or ticks.
Ebola... bat
2019-nCov... bat
SARS... bat
Hendra... flying foxes aka....... BATS
CCHF... ticks
SFTF... ticks
Lyme disease... ticks
MERS... bats
Black death... rats
Lassa fever... rats
AIDS... chimpanzee

So with AIDS being an outlier, it's either rats, bats, or on rare occasions, ticks.


Good, when will it reach zero?
Journalists lose their jobs, I laugh.
Learn how to code.
With ticks, aren't they mostly just spreaders of the disease and it originates in it's host, like with fleas/rats and the bubonic plague?

Ticks are the fucking worst though and the world would be better off without them.
 
Btw Otter, what do you think about the reports on reinfection of the virus? It seems like ridiculously quick turnaround, esp for a virus that health organizations have reported isn't mutating significantly. Do you think the antigens are mutating faster than the rest of the virus, or is it just ridiculously good at hiding from the immune system (in which case are people really recovering fully)? I don't know where the actual reports are about this, I just heard about it from some people in this thread.

Good question. Attached is a paper I was reading last night:https://archive.li/aHSlH
The coronaviruses in general are known for reinfection so there’s nothing unusual about that. Such rapid reinfection I’m not sure about. What seems to happen in SARS is that the innate immune system deals with the primary infection and then any reinfection is dealt with by antibodies, but they take a few weeks to reach decent levels. I guess reinfection in that period would be dealt with differently than later but that’s purely a guess.
The question of if/how soon you can reinfect will be interesting. A lot of corona viruses and similar are shed for a long time after infection in faeces and saliva - are patients reinfecting themselves? We don’t know. Stuff like hand foot and mouth for example will be shed for weeks in children’s poop which is one reason it rips through daycares with all the nappies and general sliming that kids do.
SARS is known to be something that mutates rapidly. How many different strains of this are circulating? Again we don’t know. It’s an important question because when you have multiple strains about, any of em can cause wider spread. If the milder type does that, it’s obviously better than if the worse type does (it’s possible this happened in the 1918 flu thing - people who were desperately sick were not quarantined in place but shipped to hospitals and bang... the second wave.)
Are people actually recovering and then being reinfected rapidly? Or are they recovering a bit and coming back down with it? Answer: we dont know. I’m not even sure if all the proteins that make up SARS have been fully explored yet. If those spike proteins for example have similarity with HIV like sequences then what are the consequences of that for immune evasion? Again, we dont know.
It’s all quite humbling really. We know so little of what’s really out there, and we don’t really even understand how our immune systems work. I would expect to see the dynamics of it worked out fairly soon but they will be very different in a western hospital with decent hygiene than in an area where medics are overwhelmed with few supplies. I feel very sorry for those on the front line.
 
Ticks are the fucking worst though and the world would be better off without them.

We need more opossums! Many diseases that vector on other animals can't because of their blood temperature and they eat ticks like they're going out of style (just stay the hell out of my okra and tomatoes you adorable bastards)
 
The only reason this has not yet been called a Pandemic, is because the Trump Administration after consultation has to work out a way to avoid an entire shutdown of the worlds financial systems when this thing really takes off. And perhaps rightly so. If anything like whats happening in China happens here there will be bank runs and the whole system collapses. Already the banks are short cash and the Fed has been pumping billions into the system to stave off crashes the last few months. A bank run? Done like a dogs dinner.

I expect the Dow Jones by Friday 8th February to start reflecting the true global losses and be god awful. The cost of quarantining 1.3 Billion people is so vast, it defies belief in what the GDP will globally suffer. The cascade effect will ripple through every sector with amazing speed as future orders and sales are adjusted to the new realities.

As the losses start in Asia they will ripple through within hours to our indexes, and the excuse will be agreed by governments to perhaps suspend trading in Asia and use this as an excuse for possibly shutting down other indexes, rather than broadcasting the reality.
 
The only reason this has not yet been called a Pandemic, is because the Trump Administration after consultation has to work out a way to avoid an entire shutdown of the worlds financial systems when this thing really takes off. And perhaps rightly so. If anything like whats happening in China happens here there will be bank runs and the whole system collapses. Already the banks are short cash and the Fed has been pumping billions into the system to stave off crashes the last few months. A bank run? Done like a dogs dinner.

I expect the Dow Jones by Friday 8th February to start reflecting the true global losses and be god awful. The cost of quarantining 1.3 Billion people is so vast, it defies belief in what the GDP will globally suffer. The cascade effect will ripple through every sector with amazing speed as future orders and sales are adjusted to the new realities.

As the losses start in Asia they will ripple through within hours to our indexes, and the excuse will be agreed by governments to perhaps suspend trading in Asia and use this as an excuse for possibly shutting down other indexes, rather than broadcasting the reality.
So when/if this happens, would it be like the 2008 recession? Or more like the Great Depression? That's what I want to know.
 
highscores update

corona4.JPG
 
Good question. Attached is a paper I was reading last night:https://archive.li/aHSlH
The coronaviruses in general are known for reinfection so there’s nothing unusual about that. Such rapid reinfection I’m not sure about. What seems to happen in SARS is that the innate immune system deals with the primary infection and then any reinfection is dealt with by antibodies, but they take a few weeks to reach decent levels. I guess reinfection in that period would be dealt with differently than later but that’s purely a guess.
The question of if/how soon you can reinfect will be interesting. A lot of corona viruses and similar are shed for a long time after infection in faeces and saliva - are patients reinfecting themselves? We don’t know. Stuff like hand foot and mouth for example will be shed for weeks in children’s poop which is one reason it rips through daycares with all the nappies and general sliming that kids do.
SARS is known to be something that mutates rapidly. How many different strains of this are circulating? Again we don’t know. It’s an important question because when you have multiple strains about, any of em can cause wider spread. If the milder type does that, it’s obviously better than if the worse type does (it’s possible this happened in the 1918 flu thing - people who were desperately sick were not quarantined in place but shipped to hospitals and bang... the second wave.)
Are people actually recovering and then being reinfected rapidly? Or are they recovering a bit and coming back down with it? Answer: we dont know. I’m not even sure if all the proteins that make up SARS have been fully explored yet. If those spike proteins for example have similarity with HIV like sequences then what are the consequences of that for immune evasion? Again, we dont know.
It’s all quite humbling really. We know so little of what’s really out there, and we don’t really even understand how our immune systems work. I would expect to see the dynamics of it worked out fairly soon but they will be very different in a western hospital with decent hygiene than in an area where medics are overwhelmed with few supplies. I feel very sorry for those on the front line.
This is interesting information. Does this mean if someone has a vaccine for SARS that reinfection is still a possibility?
 
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