- Joined
- Jan 6, 2019
Damn right. Diseases like this generally follow a fairly constant incubation time. It’s not like HIV or Hep which can progress or not to late stage symptoms over a wide variation. This is more like the flu, or a cold and it should have a reasonably narrow incubation range. A few days either way.The fact that this virus has at times shown incredibly random incubation periods, and that it apparently can easily slip past many quarantine measures should be great reasons for alarm.
The fact that the incubation times are all screwy Is incredibly concerning and implies that either/mix of:
1. The disease course varies considerably and some people are showing symptoms early while some show milder symptoms and thus appear to be free from disease
2. Transmission chain tracking is incorrect and somebody else has in fact infected that person.
3. quarantine has failed because either a. measures are insufficient or B. other carriers were missed
Option two / 3b mean that either contacts are not being traced properly and you’re getting chain transmission and missing a part of the chain and/or the disease is already circulating in the population.
As far as I know, nobody is testing sentinel samples?
For flu, you have a very well set up testing net, where ‘sentinel samples’ are sent from various centres (hospitals across Europe) of patients who have symptoms that could, possibly, be flu. So those samples are tested and flu shows up early, and you see what strains are out there Circulating. that data informs public health responses.
If I were in a position to do so, I’d be setting up sentinel testing on anyone who has pneumonia requiring hospitalisation and also on random respiratory samples.
I think we are now past the point we were with SARS where we could stamp it out at source. I have to say, I feel concerned as to how bad the impact of this is going to be.