MarvinTheParanoidAndroid
This will all end in tears, I just know it.
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Feb 24, 2015
If they're smart they'll figure out quickly that no cost is too great to stay in business.How long do you think it takes to go to a country, scout out buildings, meet with govt officials, get permits, hire people, move machinery over (or buy new machinery), train workers, and set up exports? Like 2 weeks or something? And you think the cost is just negligible?
You'd be surprised at how quickly deployment can go in a third world shithole like China with no building code standards. Companies have already bailed out of China and have gone to India instead.Chinese suppliers are telling companies that the factories are reopening any day now. A smart company would ignore that and vacate China now. Most companies will want to believe it, and if they move assume it might be temporary and can get back to China in a year or so. A lot of companies will try to ride it out. Not to mention the fact that you have companies that put together products, but the pieces are from other Chinese companies. You have to move a lot of the ground up stuff out of China. We've set ourselves up as an economy where it's cheaper to grow chickens and slaughter them in the US, fly them to China, process them, and send them back. You aren't going to walk into a village in Bumfuck, Thailand and be able to make that chicken factory (or textile, or sewing, or machining, or gadget building factory) overnight.
Oh I fully expect for all the cheap and dying store outlets to bite the dust unless they start to make very smart moves very quickly right this Goddamn minute. Otherwise we'll have genuinely superior options end up taking their place.It might be possible to move, but there will be a definite lapse in available just in time inventory. Best case scenario you're right. Companies are looking to permanently leave China now. They are setting up factories now, preferably not in Asia where cases are spreading. Still expect an interregnum between the last ships of Chinese goods hitting to the new non-Chinese goods appearing on the shelves. At best you're talking sparse shelves and some product shortages in the summer to fall, with at least a 20% decline in sales for Back To School shopping. You could see a recovery in available inventory by Christmas. However some retailers on the brink will definitely shut their doors--expect say Sears/Kmart, Pennys, and a few small fashion chains to be gone by the year's end. The impact on stores like Dollar Tree and Family Dollar which survive on cheap Chinese shit as well as the mom and pop dollar stores could be huge. Apu at the dirt mall who has a store full of cheap knockoff shit he buys from sketchy Chinese sites for 30 cents and sells for a dollar is gone.
Again, worst case scenario is this will result in a paradigm shift of just where exactly we source materials. We might move toward just getting cheap Russian shit instead.
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