Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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How long do you think it takes to go to a country, scout out buildings, meet with govt officials, get permits, hire people, move machinery over (or buy new machinery), train workers, and set up exports? Like 2 weeks or something? And you think the cost is just negligible?
If they're smart they'll figure out quickly that no cost is too great to stay in business.
Chinese suppliers are telling companies that the factories are reopening any day now. A smart company would ignore that and vacate China now. Most companies will want to believe it, and if they move assume it might be temporary and can get back to China in a year or so. A lot of companies will try to ride it out. Not to mention the fact that you have companies that put together products, but the pieces are from other Chinese companies. You have to move a lot of the ground up stuff out of China. We've set ourselves up as an economy where it's cheaper to grow chickens and slaughter them in the US, fly them to China, process them, and send them back. You aren't going to walk into a village in Bumfuck, Thailand and be able to make that chicken factory (or textile, or sewing, or machining, or gadget building factory) overnight.
You'd be surprised at how quickly deployment can go in a third world shithole like China with no building code standards. Companies have already bailed out of China and have gone to India instead.
It might be possible to move, but there will be a definite lapse in available just in time inventory. Best case scenario you're right. Companies are looking to permanently leave China now. They are setting up factories now, preferably not in Asia where cases are spreading. Still expect an interregnum between the last ships of Chinese goods hitting to the new non-Chinese goods appearing on the shelves. At best you're talking sparse shelves and some product shortages in the summer to fall, with at least a 20% decline in sales for Back To School shopping. You could see a recovery in available inventory by Christmas. However some retailers on the brink will definitely shut their doors--expect say Sears/Kmart, Pennys, and a few small fashion chains to be gone by the year's end. The impact on stores like Dollar Tree and Family Dollar which survive on cheap Chinese shit as well as the mom and pop dollar stores could be huge. Apu at the dirt mall who has a store full of cheap knockoff shit he buys from sketchy Chinese sites for 30 cents and sells for a dollar is gone.
Oh I fully expect for all the cheap and dying store outlets to bite the dust unless they start to make very smart moves very quickly right this Goddamn minute. Otherwise we'll have genuinely superior options end up taking their place.

Again, worst case scenario is this will result in a paradigm shift of just where exactly we source materials. We might move toward just getting cheap Russian shit instead.
 
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My forecast is that at that time it won't really matter if prices inflate from that happening because the money spent on buying home sourced product is going back to the country it came from rather than into a foreign power. At that point, the apparent price will change but the overall wealth will increase because the resources being used are coming from local stock rather than from overseas.

Adding a few hundred thousand jobs at $15 an hour isn't going to help most people afford a blanket that goes from $20 to $50, shoes that go from $50 to $80, or a smartphone that costs $2500 instead of $500. Even if you pay people federal minimum of $7.25 it's massively more than paying someone $.60 an hour, plus bennies, union shit, US state and federal safety regulations, mandated training, hr personnel. Do you think Wang Ling is going to have a diversity rep that makes $50k a year he can complain to when Shing Chu grabs his ass? Shelly in Idaho sure does. And she can't work more than x hours without a break, or x hours a day, and anything over 40 is time and a half.

There's a reason why manufacturing jobs have been leaving the US for the past 40 years. And don't mistake this for arguing for that: I'd love to see manufacturing jobs back here, less reliance on global imports, less of a drive to move Americans off actual work and on to UBI. But if that comes, it won't come without a massive negative effect on quality of life in the US in the near term at least.

There's not much we can do about it, except buy what you can now, save money now, think about living with less. Learn to make shit last longer. Repair instead of replace. If you can't afford a new phone every 2 years, take good care of your current one. Be frugal with food instead of buying too much so it expires and you throw out half of it. Look into cleaning and repairing your shoes instead of buying new ones. Buy better quality, less fashionable (ie timeless) basic clothes. Think of how you might live if you or your family members were unemployed for a few years, or took a 40% pay cut. Live like that now.

You don't have to start hoarding gold and guns and MREs, but you can make it so if we at least get as bad as 2008 or the late 70s malaise you won't suffer as much.
 
Agent Smith from Matrix made a video about the WHO's corruption. I really really hope Corona-chan summons her inner Bane and crashes the plane that is CCP with no survivors.
 
Just wait for this year’s Hajj... when’s that? August or something?

First she did more to end communism than the cold war. Now she's gonna make the war on terror look like pussy shit. Corona-chan: world peace opperative. Man this shit better get an anime adaptation.

The CDC should be working 24/7 to develop a vaccine. I know testing takes time to develop it and then testing in humans will also take time but there needs to be a vaccine this year.

I’m cancelling all airplane travel this year unless things settle down by summer.

I assure you they are. But the largest time sink in vaccine de elopment is the spacing between samples and injections, and that shit just can't be accelerated. So really... it'll take what it always takes. I know people are used to flu vaccines being super fast, but they are that way because most months the only question is what preexisting strands will pop up more and even the new ones are so similar to prior years than the test are more for confirmation of what we know will work than actual development.

The less you know about the virus the lesser the chance of the prototype working, the higher the chance of it having side effects and the more the number of tests it'll take, and man, we know so fucking little about how to vaccinate against coronaviri... That's why quarantine was so important. And why what the WHO did should be prosecuted as bioterrorism. You can't fooking make this shit faster we've already put it at the point where we spend most of the time doing something else while we wait for the test subject to spread the particles around its cells and react to them.

That God's on Trump's side because he's getting rid of his enemies?

I remember when the sanctions to spain by america were anounced and the media was all "oh woe is us why would trump be so eeeevil? Our presidents just tried to increase our economy by fucking america over and now orange man bad is coming after us!!!!" And the general population's response was basically "Wait those dumbfucks tried to 'ave a chin wagging contest with GOD EMPEROR TRUMP himself? Who even does that?!" Seriously people, don't fuck with trump, he'll win. That really is the lesson of the last 4 years.
 
For those who have read " The Stand" too many times and would like a new plague scenario to mull over, may I suggest Stewart O'Nan's "A Prayer For the Dying", set in a 1870's Death-Trip Wisconsin where the world is burning and everyone is dropping dead from diptheria. It's a wicked little story, about 150 pages or so and the only one I've ever read that was written in second person. Not conducive to sleep, though.
 
A good question, without trying to be a smart-ass. Could be a mutation. Could be poor medical services. Could be some or all of the patients have significant risk factors such as age, weak immune system, other diseases.

If these things are happening on a relatively small scale in just a few places, that's one thing. If we see this happening many patients, especially in a number of geographically separated areas, that's another. The medical and scientific people need to stay on top of this because this virus seems to be a moving target re medicines and vaccines. Again, putting things in overall perspective.

But I would add that a number of organizations are working on a vaccine, and there may be some combination of medicines that could also deal with this virus. So, advise coming back here. Believe our global KF corps is about the best place for good info and good analysis going.
Iranian cities, at least Tehran, has terrible, threadbare medical services and has otherwordly levels of pollution thanks to vast fleets of old Brit and French cars from the time of the Shah made under licence (like the Peykan), which some drive around all day as fuel is cheap and there's no work, and nothing to do. What I mean is that this type of illness perhaps is harsher in places where a lot of people will have lungs and other organs already damaged by severe pollution. China would be like that. Maybe that's a thing big urban areas in India too. Dunno. Paykan_Hillman_Hunter_(8688702841).jpg
 
Or maybe the Chinese factories will start back up in a couple weeks. It's just a flu bro.

It's not just a flu, but I expect Xi to force factories to start up in the next few weeks, contagion be damned. He can't let companies be spooked enough to consider a move to other countries permanently. China's economy is already in slowdown mode even before SARS 2: Pandemic Boogaloo hit.
 
Adding a few hundred thousand jobs at $15 an hour isn't going to help most people afford a blanket that goes from $20 to $50, shoes that go from $50 to $80, or a smartphone that costs $2500 instead of $500. Even if you pay people federal minimum of $7.25 it's massively more than paying someone $.60 an hour, plus bennies, union shit, US state and federal safety regulations, mandated training, hr personnel. Do you think Wang Ling is going to have a diversity rep that makes $50k a year he can complain to when Shing Chu grabs his ass? Shelly in Idaho sure does. And she can't work more than x hours without a break, or x hours a day, and anything over 40 is time and a half.

There's a reason why manufacturing jobs have been leaving the US for the past 40 years. And don't mistake this for arguing for that: I'd love to see manufacturing jobs back here, less reliance on global imports, less of a drive to move Americans off actual work and on to UBI. But if that comes, it won't come without a massive negative effect on quality of life in the US in the near term at least.

There's not much we can do about it, except buy what you can now, save money now, think about living with less. Learn to make shit last longer. Repair instead of replace. If you can't afford a new phone every 2 years, take good care of your current one. Be frugal with food instead of buying too much so it expires and you throw out half of it. Look into cleaning and repairing your shoes instead of buying new ones. Buy better quality, less fashionable (ie timeless) basic clothes. Think of how you might live if you or your family members were unemployed for a few years, or took a 40% pay cut. Live like that now.

You don't have to start hoarding gold and guns and MREs, but you can make it so if we at least get as bad as 2008 or the late 70s malaise you won't suffer as much.
Mexico is not only close its part of NAFTA. Lots of of our goods and food are made there already. Every country south of our border will be open for more business. Like someone else pointed out, expect turbulence but not the apocalypse.

That said, being frugal and repairing things is good advice.
 
Mexico is not only close its part of NAFTA. Lots of of our goods and food are made there already. Every country south of our border will be open for more business. Like someone else pointed out, expect turbulence but not the apocalypse.

That said, being frugal and repairing things is good advice.
I'd be good with jobs returning to mexico. It would take some pressure off the US for sure.
 
It's not just a flu, but I expect Xi to force factories to start up in the next few weeks, contagion be damned. He can't let companies be spooked enough to consider a move to other countries permanently. China's economy is already in slowdown mode even before SARS 2: Pandemic Boogaloo hit.
Just wait until the first time someone pops open the box on a newly manufactured computer, only to find body parts stuffed into the packaging.

Styrofoam costs less than cremation.
 
Mexico is not only close its part of NAFTA. Lots of of our goods and food are made there already. Every country south of our border will be open for more business. Like someone else pointed out, expect turbulence but not the apocalypse.

That said, being frugal and repairing things is good advice.
I like repairing shit and making it better than factory standards anyway so I do not mind having a repair focused attitude. Only problem is the lack of know-how that permeates the world unfortunately. No society on Earth really promotes self sufficiency.
 
So, how long before this thread is called RACIST? Joking about Corona-chan is insensitive!
A New York college is investigating whether an off-campus coronavirus-themed party violated the student code of conduct after an Asian American student group complained that it was insensitive and racist.
 
I like repairing shit and making it better than factory standards anyway so I do not mind having a repair focused attitude. Only problem is the lack of know-how that permeates the world unfortunately. No society on Earth really promotes self sufficiency.

The nice thing is there is so much shit on youtube now, you can easily learn to fix shit on your own. So long as the internet and power is up, people can really self teach. Everything from fixing your car to upgrading your computer, growing food, fixing clothes and shoes, it's all there. One good thing about the Depression, the reason why our grandparents and great grandparents were so frugal and shit, was because of social and govt encouragement of that stuff, especially once the war started and people were recycling tin and doing victory gardens. The govt could be useful and do propaganda for that shit again.


It's not just a flu, but I expect Xi to force factories to start up in the next few weeks, contagion be damned. He can't let companies be spooked enough to consider a move to other countries permanently. China's economy is already in slowdown mode even before SARS 2: Pandemic Boogaloo hit.

Ironically, though this would cause a greater epidemic in China and accelerate deaths in the long term, it would be the best for the US and the West in the short term. If he really restarts the factories now, quarantines and safety be dammed, they might make enough goods before they start dropping dead to tide the system over until companies move production and restart it. IF companies still commit to bailing on China and don't say "Hey look the factories are started again, everything is fine!"

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Is it about the Peshtigo Fire? Because I remember enjoying his book about the Hartford circus fire.
Yes, that's the background, combined with a very real epidemic they were facing at the time. It's very stylized and macabre, but I loved it. I read it after I read his circus fire book, which is a good read too. The way the diptheria comes to town is haunting and now very relatable in current context.
 
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