Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[Not Really Here]

Perhaps you want to share a comparison between the economic impact of Swine Flu and the Wuhan Flu? Or at least point at the numbers you are citing? My understanding was the Swine Flu wiped out a large part of the Pork industry in Asia, but losses to individual businesses do not always equate to macro-level economic losses.

Economists use different measures to estimate impact, but Wuhan was a particularly bad place for this outbreak to start. In today's global economy, this has shut down supply chains affecting every country in the world. Apple has been saying they won't have enough iPhones to meet demand because component parts made in Wuhan have dried up and won't be available again for 4 months (which means some factories supplying the component parts manufacturer have been very hard hit, smaller ones may have lost their entire workforce.)

One of the downsides about globalism is you get highly specialized manufacturing zones. It's impossible to find another place to get some things made because they don't exist, you have to build them again from scratch someplace else. Sometimes that's easy to do, sometimes not.

What's a 'Just In Time' supply chain?

Big brained economists have fucked us. If not now then at some point.

 

[RomanesEuntDomus]

The times are different now. During those Mao's fuck ups Chinese people were dirt poor farmers with no contact to the outside world or other parts of China. Now significant portion Chinese people have access to outside world and they know about heretical ideas like having individual rights. China, while still being largely poor country, has a middle class of tens of millions and they will get angry if or when CCP fucks up their economy and causes them to lose the modern comforts they have become accustomed to. CCP's strategy for several decades has been "You can make a lot money if you let CCP do their thing". Once the money stops people will start asking uncomfortable questions and bucking against CCP. As a side note Xi's cult of personality is far weaker than Mao's. Just google Mao's mangoes.

Well, that's true, spread of information might be a key element in keeping people in the loop how bad things are elsewhere - so they can't be lied to concerning both the scale as well as the result of this fallout. When you only know what's going on in your neighborhood and a bunch of people vanish, you might not think it as big a deal as when you learn that it happened all over China and you can tell that numbers of casualties have been doctored.

But still, as long as the military doesn't get taken out by a massive outbreak (not unlikely, they have to do the dirty work in Hubei, it seems, so plenty of chance to contract this sickness and spread it around the barracks) or changes sides, I fear that China will just beat everyone into submission eventually. But the fallout of this will be massive.

I mean, don't get me wrong, I would go dance in the streets if this managed to fuck over China so hard, the CCP keels over with all its cronies and China ditches socialism. China is a very dangerous nation, torn between megalomania and an inferiority complex, they might get funny ideas about being #1 soon...

I know it might sound petty, but given how many Chinese are so immensely proud of their culture (whatever is left after 60 years of CCP rule) and their history, I somewhat hope this takes their arrogance down a notch. The world mainly sees them as barbarians that stuff any creature into their maw as long as it's expensive. Killing endangered species to buy vanity limp-dick-medicine just to show off they can afford TRUE and HONEST rhino-horn powder (instead of just getting viagra) and so on... They are a bit full of themselves, maybe this plague will show them that they still need to get some basic shit done.
Like, getting their filthy living conditions under control.

 

[Gorilla Tessellator]

Perhaps you want to share a comparison between the economic impact of Swine Flu and the Wuhan Flu? Or at least point at the numbers you are citing? My understanding was the Swine Flu wiped out a large part of the Pork industry in Asia, but losses to individual businesses do not always equate to macro-level economic losses.

Economists use different measures to estimate impact, but Wuhan was a particularly bad place for this outbreak to start. In today's global economy, this has shut down supply chains affecting every country in the world. Apple has been saying they won't have enough iPhones to meet demand because component parts made in Wuhan have dried up and won't be available again for 4 months (which means some factories supplying the component parts manufacturer have been very hard hit, smaller ones may have lost their entire workforce.)

One of the downsides about globalism is you get highly specialized manufacturing zones. It's impossible to find another place to get some things made because they don't exist, you have to build them again from scratch someplace else. Sometimes that's easy to do, sometimes not.

I don't have any hard numbers. I just saw many articles claiming that the situation is going to get very bad, to the point that it will result in global depression. Well, in 2009 economic situation wasn't pretty as well, but to my knowledge swine flu virus wasn't the main factor (correct me if I'm wrong)

 

[Kane Lives]

What's a 'Just In Time' supply chain?

Big brained economists have fucked us. If not now then at some point.

It's basically the new paradigm of manufacturing. In the old days (think 40s-90s), industries used to need to keep some level of stock of the raw materials necessary in order to ensure that things can be made. Not uncommon to see factories maintain warehouses to store these. Of course, having to maintain and keep these stocks cost money and is something manufacturers try to avoid having too much of.

Just-In-Time, of course, just means that you try and predict what level of demand you're going to have, and try and order the very minimal amount you're going to need to meet demand. You also try to ensure that you order these stocks only on the day/week you need them, to minimise the amount of time spent sitting in a warehouse. (Hence the term "just in time"). It's an effective cost-saving measure, but as people found out now, extremely vulnerable to external disruptions. Factories who operate on this principle typically don't keep more than a day's worth of material.

You can see why this is extremely vulnerable to a supply chain disruption. If your suppliers are suddenly quarantined due to the WuFlu, well shit, guess you don't have shit to make anymore, and you need to shut your factories due to a lack of raw materials.

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

What's a 'Just In Time' supply chain?

It means I, as a producer of goods, have no storage of items prepared in case a shipment fails somehow. It means the product comes straight off the assembly line, crosses the ocean, gets loaded on trucks and put on store shelves in a cycle where point A & B must always meet for it to work. It means I have nothing prepared in the just case scenario that my trade line fails at any one of the many, many single points of failure that individually could fuck over my ability to deliver goods. They do it this way to prevent the deflation of the cost of goods so they won't lose money by having extra on the side and therefore a less scarce resource. It's the same logic behind why we burn excess food.

 

[Shadfan666xxx000]

It means I, as a producer of goods, have no storage of items prepared in case a shipment fails somehow. It means the product comes straight off the assembly line, crosses the ocean, gets loaded on trucks and put on store shelves in a cycle where point A & B must always meet for it to work. It means I have nothing prepared in the just case scenario that my trade line fails at any one of the many, many single points of failure that individually could fuck over my ability to deliver goods. They do it this way to prevent the deflation of the cost of goods so they won't lose money by having extra on the side and therefore a less scarce resource. It's the same logic behind why we burn excess food.

Dear christ, the only place that seems to make sense to work in seems to be the public sector these days.

 

[Ivan Shatov]

It's basically the new paradigm of manufacturing. In the old days (think 40s-90s), industries used to need to keep some level of stock of the raw materials necessary in order to ensure that things can be made. Not uncommon to see factories maintain warehouses to store these. Of course, having to maintain and keep these stocks cost money and is something manufacturers try to avoid having too much of.

Just-In-Time, of course, just means that you try and predict what level of demand you're going to have, and try and order the very minimal amount you're going to need to meet demand. You also try to ensure that you order these stocks only on the day/week you need them, to minimise the amount of time spent sitting in a warehouse. (Hence the term "just in time"). It's an effective cost-saving measure, but as people found out now, extremely vulnerable to external disruptions. Factories who operate on this principle typically don't keep more than a day's worth of material.

You can see why this is extremely vulnerable to a supply chain disruption. If your suppliers are suddenly quarantined due to the WuFlu, well shit, guess you don't have shit to make anymore, and you need to shut your factories due to a lack of raw materials.

JIT is vulnerable to political instability, virus outbreaks, global warming, and a lot of other factors. The world would like to orient itself around efficiency, God laughs.

But there's something very racist about it. World Wildlife Foundation provides services to corporations examining supply chains, identifying vulnerabilities and steering them towards ones that are more palatable to Western buyers. In their recommendations, you tend to find they eschew countries carrying heavy debt loads, using a lot of World Bank data to make determinations. The native populations of the least-favored sources tend to have a similar complexion.

Globalism will eventually lead to the extinction of a lot of different peoples.

 

[Coleslaw]

People online are carrying on the glorious national tradition of schadenfreude at our neighbors whenever shit happens.

"Seeing how shit our "No. 1 in Asia" neighbor is dealing with this, I can't resist thanking my lucky stars it happened in China."

 

[Hecate]

People online are carrying on the glorious national tradition of schadenfreude at our neighbors whenever shit happens.
View attachment 1157863
"Seeing how shit our "No. 1 in Asia" neighbor is dealing with this, I can't resist thanking my lucky stars it happened in China."

is this bitch insane, stupid, or just a shill?
im going for all 3

 

[HonsPonzud]

Noticing something in the face of how severe this has spread everywhere, "world" leaders are just still either traveling all around the world and don't give much of a fuck about being infected by this Coronavirus, Trump going to india around probably thousand of attendees, the French president Macron going to large scale / populated agricultural / farmer events (even if Macron has just a lot of "actor studio" people chosen to attend his fake meetings with "electors" this is still a large scale agricultural / farmer event with a lot of people and a lot of animals there) and getting in the middle of thousands of people, the prime minister of cambodia just shaking hands with most probably a coronavirus infected woman leaving that cruise ship, and no news about him or anyone being infected after this.

Could it be a complete disregard for any danger, or should i get myself a tiny tinfoil hat, if i start to believe they think they are immune to any of this ? Why take any chance like that and parade in public as if nothing can happen ?

 

[Traummaschine]

I saw the video with information about exponential growth of swine flu in 2009. It was quite sobering. My question is why the economic impact of swine flu wasn't nearly as disastrous as what some people predict now will be the result of coronavirus?

Should be noted that in the 2009 swine flu pandemic, the virus has been estimated to have been less lethal than the normal flu for humans, so it ended up being more of a second flu season.

 

[Coleslaw]

is this bitch insane, stupid, or just a shill?
im going for all 3

You forgot "ingrate".

 

[Mammamia in Naziland]

"Serious mistake was made not to quarantine people who arrived in Italy from China" said Walter Ricciardi of the WHO [...]

That's rich, coming from the same organization who is still discouraging governments from halting flights to and from China. What about France, who let just two days ago a sick Chinese family land in Paris and move to Genoa by train, unchecked, or Germany, who doesn't test sick people with consistent symptoms, unless they (admit that they) came back recently from China?

Make no mistake, the cluster around Munchen, the one caused by the Chinese woman visiting, resulted in so few infected only because they limited the testing to those in direct contact with her and their families. No investigation has been carried out to retrace their movements or to ascertain whom they further came in contact with. The child of the first infected was allowed to attend kindergarten with both his parents already sick and before he himself tested positive!

Yesterday evening they announced the suspected patient zero in Lombardy has no anti-bodies. He never contracted the Wuflu. Yet, patient one is a friend with which he got multiple contacts around two weeks ago, and even his brother-in-law is positive.

And the hotbed in Veneto is not related to this one, for sure. It means there have been, and still are, several patient zeros roaming unchecked, in Italy and Europe, and they'be been there for weeks, by now. As I said a couple of posts ago, you either suspend Schengen or the entire EU ceases contacts with China. Now I doubt a containment in Europe is possible anymoew. Were more countries to test as extensively as Italy is doing right now the numbers would skyrocket.

 

[Unsweet]

Well, that's true, spread of information might be a key element in keeping people in the loop how bad things are elsewhere - so they can't be lied to concerning both the scale as well as the result of this fallout. When you only know what's going on in your neighborhood and a bunch of people vanish, you might not think it as big a deal as when you learn that it happened all over China and you can tell that numbers of casualties have been doctored.

But still, as long as the military doesn't get taken out by a massive outbreak (not unlikely, they have to do the dirty work in Hubei, it seems, so plenty of chance to contract this sickness and spread it around the barracks) or changes sides, I fear that China will just beat everyone into submission eventually. But the fallout of this will be massive.

I mean, don't get me wrong, I would go dance in the streets if this managed to fuck over China so hard, the CCP keels over with all its cronies and China ditches socialism. China is a very dangerous nation, torn between megalomania and an inferiority complex, they might get funny ideas about being #1 soon...

I know it might sound petty, but given how many Chinese are so immensely proud of their culture (whatever is left after 60 years of CCP rule) and their history, I somewhat hope this takes their arrogance down a notch. The world mainly sees them as barbarians that stuff any creature into their maw as long as it's expensive. Killing endangered species to buy vanity limp-dick-medicine just to show off they can afford TRUE and HONEST rhino-horn powder (instead of just getting viagra) and so on... They are a bit full of themselves, maybe this plague will show them that they still need to get some basic shit done.
Like, getting their filthy living conditions under control.

I do feel like CCP was completely taken by surprise about how other nations reacted to news of wuflu. I think they totally thought they had more soft power than they do. To have other nations that they considered to be their equals close the door on them must have done huge damage to lot of big egos.

 

[AnotherPleb]

What's a 'Just In Time' supply chain?

Big brained economists have fucked us. If not now then at some point.

As others have said here, Just In Time is a way that corporations tried to save cash by not having big warehouses holding excess stock. It's something that they learned from the Toyota company in the 90s along with other principles that they call lean manufacturing. In a perfect world it works, and the US Navy has ensured that political conflicts don't fuck this up since America wants to keep trade flowing and based around the dollar.

Corona-chan is showing everyone that believes in Just In Time that the world isn't perfect and that illnesses don't give a solitary fuck about how powerful a fleet is.

 

[RomanesEuntDomus]

Yesterday evening they announced the suspected patient zero in Lombardy has no anti-bodies. He never contracted the Wuflu. Yet, patient one is a friend with which he got multiple contacts around two weeks ago, and even his brother-in-law is positive.

Patient Zero in Lombardy might as well be the only person in that circle of people that washed his hands before dinner.

Noticing something in the face of how severe this has spread everywhere, "world" leaders are just still either traveling all around the world and don't give much of a fuck about being infected by this Coronavirus, Trump going to india around probably thousand of attendees, the French president Macron going to large scale / populated agricultural / farmer events (even if Macron has just a lot of "actor studio" people chosen to attend his fake meetings with "electors" this is still a large scale agricultural / farmer event with a lot of people and a lot of animals there) and getting in the middle of thousands of people, the prime minister of cambodia just shaking hands with most probably a coronavirus infected woman leaving that cruise ship, and no news about him or anyone being infected after this.

Could it be a complete disregard for any danger, or should i get myself a tiny tinfoil hat, if i start to believe they think they are immune to any of this ? Why take any chance like that and parade in public as if nothing can happen ?

Reptiles are immune to the WuFlu.

I do feel like CCP was completely taken by surprise about how other nations reacted to news of wuflu. I think they totally thought they had more soft power than they do. To have other nations that they considered to be their equals close the door on them must have done huge damage to lot of big egos.

Japan learned that the hard way, too, after WW1.

They modernized in the late 19th century, defeated Russia in war, grabbed control of Korea and parts of Manchuria early in the 20th century, then participated in WW1, defeated Germany in their colonies and was on the winning side of the war... and still they were considered mere upstarts of second rank to the western nations. Ultimately, they left the League of Nations for various political reasons... Apparently, Japan wanted to establish a political line that would make them be considered equal to the western powers, which failed, and Japan was non too pleased.

China is now in a similar situation, though they still get their asses patted by sino-sycophants all around the globe, since China still is the biggest supplier of cheap labour in key parts of the economy on this planet.

If this goes on long enough for their trade partners to start diversifying their suppliers from various other nations, that might make China lose a shitton of money... I mean, anyone investing into China in the past 10 years is an idiot anyway. No matter how cheap you can buy their workforce and products, it's simply not worth it if your entire business can be taken away by the CCP for petty reasons as well as the blatant espionage going on that steals all a companies trade secrets and Chinese officials just shrug and go "Well, what did you expect?"

Friend of mine works for a company that started a joint venture in China with another company (lets call it B). After some ups and downs, company B decided to they had enough of the chicanery and deceit of the chinks and told Chinese officials they'd pull out (my friend's company was contemplating that as well, but was cautious about actually showing that on the outside). Well, turns out that their joint venture deal meant that China would just take possession of company B's assets in total. Every machine, every building and of course, all workers.
In one fell swoop, company B lost all their investment. My friend's company did not object, since being shortshafted is still better than being robbed, I guess.

If the world now has another reason to make deals with other asian nations (or hell, african nations for what it's worth), the better.[/QUOTE]

 

[Not Really Here]

As others have said here, Just In Time is a way that corporations tried to save cash by not having big warehouses holding excess stock. It's something that they learned from the Toyota company in the 90s along with other principles that they call lean manufacturing. In a perfect world it works, and the US Navy has ensured that political conflicts don't fuck this up since America wants to keep trade flowing and based around the dollar.

Corona-chan is showing everyone that believes in Just In Time that the world isn't perfect and that illnesses don't give a solitary fuck about how powerful a fleet is.

I love how at least 3 people missed the implied sarcasm in questioning a term no one had used.

 

[dopy]

I love how at least 3 people missed the implied sarcasm in questioning a term no one had used.

autism makes self-reflection a challenge for many

btw we blew past 400 pages already. happy pandemic, kiwifriends!

 

[eternal dog mongler]

It's basically the new paradigm of manufacturing. In the old days (think 40s-90s), industries used to need to keep some level of stock of the raw materials necessary in order to ensure that things can be made. Not uncommon to see factories maintain warehouses to store these. Of course, having to maintain and keep these stocks cost money and is something manufacturers try to avoid having too much of.

Pharmacies work the same way. Which should scare people, tbh. If there was some kind of massive disruption we'd make it two weeks at most before we were reduced to putting essential oils on people and reading from the Bible 'cause that's all we got.

 

[Angry New Ager]

God I wish I were a stock market genius.

I'm not a stock market genius. Not even close. I have no finance background at all, and find most of that stuff incredibly, intensely boring. That's why my major stock purchases tend to be conservative, low-risk, safe bets. I can say what I've done that worked in a given situation, but I can't guarantee it will be a good idea for anybody else, at another time. So I don't give investment advice, because the only person I feel qualified to advise is myself.

But here's what I have going for me, as an investor: I am not prone to panicking, and generally keep my head in a crisis; I'm also not avaricious, and have never looked to the stock market to get rich quick. I don't invest in anything I don't easily understand, no matter who tells me how great it is, and I don't trust gurus or groupthink at all, so I don't get caught up in the latest investing craze.

I also read a lot of history, so I have a pretty good grasp of the idea that boom and bust cycles happen, and just because everything's going to shit doesn't mean it will stay that way. And even when things are going to shit, that doesn't mean there aren't opportunities. Everybody's freaking out, selling their stocks, and crashing the market? I see it as the perfect time to buy, while stocks are cheap, and I'm prepared to hold on to them for 5-10 years or more until the economy recovers. In 2008, I had no idea when an economic recovery would happen, only that it eventually would, and that was enough to act on.

Most people have a really hard time with taking a long view, and they don't know even the most bare-bones shit about the patterns of history, so they get caught up in the euphoria of various bubbles, then panic when the bubbles start to deflate, and think the world has come to an end when the crash finally occurs. The housing and subprime credit bubble of the 2000s could not have continued forever; it was going to burst, just like every other bubble that preceded it, and in early 2008 there were just enough signs of growing instability for me to predict it would happen later in the year. Hey, I could have been wrong, you know? It really was more of a hunch than a logical analysis. But that time, I just happened to be right. That doesn't mean I'll be right again, though.

if anyone says they're a "stock market genius," run for the hills. learn and develop your own strategies and do not deviate from them.

This, absolutely. Especially if they have a seminar to sell you, because that's where they're making all their money--selling a dream to suckers.

It's never too early for a good hanging, if you ask me. Can we start with this lady?

"We were tested in Japan, and never got the results back and we made up the story that we were clear."

I say we ask the Singaporeans what kind of punishment would be appropriate in this case, then apply whatever they recommend. They've got the proper mindset for this sort of thing.

In America we've got Christian Scientists (power of prayer over medicine)
and Jehovah's Witnesses (It's against god's will to receive blood so no blood transfusions.)
They're wacky enough.

If COVID-19 tends to kill off mostly old people, it could be the thing that finally renders Christian Scientists extinct. The average age of their ever-dwindling membership has got to be well over 70, if the few remaining ones I see at the Reading Rooms are any indication. The church pretty much only exists as a real estate holding company these days; as a religious organization it's nearly defunct.

Scientologists aren't a whole lot better; there's a lot of gray heads in that crowd, and it's the one religion I can think of where smoking is not discouraged (because L. Ron Hubbard smoked, and if Ron did it, it's okay). They'll just take Niacin overdoses and try sweating it out in a sauna, or auditing to find what body thetans have attracted coronavirus to them.

And then there's the boomer New Agey types who have all read The Secret, believe that one's thoughts create one's reality (well, they do, but not in the way they've been misled to believe), and that if they continue to "think good thoughts" and align themselves with higher frequencies by believing they are immune to a disease, they won't get it. Good luck with that, folks.