Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[Heinous Fuckery]

Lol, thanks facebook

View attachment 1159696

Has anybody else seen this?

I did.

I went looking to see if Zuck ripped off Null and made a haz-mat suit filter for profile pics.
(Spoiler - he wasn't that clever)

 

[kcbbq]

Or the economy was a house of cards made to look impressive but would collapse at any road bump.

Everything in this thread is histrionics. A 3 percent drop is so much not a crash. The Dow would have had to drop more than 6500 points today to match '87, an actual crash. People swan dive out of buildings after an actual crash.

 

[simulated goat]

I wonder what the hell WHO are gonna do when they are infected soon enough, will they still continue to tell everyone "It's just the flu guys."

crossing my fingers the CDC won't beat around the bush for long once the cases of infection increase in Cali the next month. To all Kiwis in that area, my heart goes out to you all.

My bestie just went to the Bay Area to visit a friend who was in hospital because of a life-threating car crash. She said there were a lot of visitors in the hospital without masks coughing all over the place. Then she stayed with a friend who is an ER nurse who has been ill for a week. She joked about getting all Howard Hughes about germs during the visit, but she's kinda worried as well. Still, it's hard to separate this from the seasonal background crud.

 

[Honka Honka Burning Love]

Everything in this thread is histrionics. A 3 percent drop is so much not a crash. The Dow would have had to drop more than 6500 points today to match '87, an actual crash. People swan dive out of buildings after an actual crash.

Oh shit we are talking about the Dow? That wasn't a crash, I saw someone talking about a Market Crash and thought the Chinese market finally caught fire.

 

[Gender of peace]

Supply chain news round-up from r/supplychain. Coffin shortage in HK. Rare earth mineral shortage on the horizon.

Post | Archive

Health and safety advice for employers: the world leading centre for disease control and prevention (CDC) in Atlanta has issued advice for employers here. The TLDR is that if someone is sick make them stay at home and provide equipment such as alcohol gel dispensers to avoid contamination in the office.https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/guidance-business-response.html. Consider forwarding it to your HR department people, we already have alcohol dispensers in our office in the UK...

South Korean outbreak - the government has raised its health alert to the highest level red reports the Korean Herald (http://m.koreaherald.com/amp/view.php?ud=20200223000239&ud=20200223000239). Confirmed infections - most of them traced to a religious sect who had several heavily attended services - are at 600 and climbing rapidly with multiple provinces reporting casea. The US government has noted this and changed its travel advisory from the lowest level 1 to 2 urging increased caution says the Herald in a separate article (http://m.koreaherald.com/amp/view.php?ud=20200223000014&ud=20200223000014). Level 3 means reconsider travel, level 4 means don't travel. I checked the UK advice, it already advises only essential travel to that area. In addition, multiple uncorroborated sources say the start of the school year has been pushed back by a week.

Iranian outbreak - the high profile journalist Hadi Nili says on twitter (can't link directly, search for @HadiNili) that the Turkish health minister has been told by his Iranian counterpart next door that Iran has 758 suspected cases of the virus, 18 positive, 5 deaths so far. With its less advanced health care system, Iran will be one to watch this week.

Hong Kong coffin shortages - the South China Morning Post reports that manufacturing stoppages are creating a shortage of coffins in Hong Kong (https://amp.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...4/coronavirus-killer-disease-leaves-hong-kong). It has asked for government support to get supplies moving again, alternatively it will have to find other SE Asia supplies but these are up to six times more expensive.

Example of a small company with issues in Tallahassee, USA - I mentioned rare earth shortages may be causing problems soon a day or two ago - here's an early example at the micro level. Danfoss Turbocor Processors has warned its 200 staff that production may have to stop soon due to shortages of magnets that use rare earths. The company makes heating and air conditioning systems and is completely dependent on China. It only has enough supplies until the end of the month (https://www.wctv.tv/content/news/Ta...ng-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak-568100131.html).

Bloomberg Quint also has other micro level examples (https://www.bloombergquint.com/glob...bles-supply-chains-from-watches-to-lobsters): Hong Kong high end watch manufacturing, American board game makers, Mexican furniture, a German automotive firm, an Indonesian clothing company, a Malaysian cat litter sales company, a New Zealand lobster fishing company, a Japanese mining equipment manufacturer - all are affected either because replenishments have been delayed or demand has substantially dropped.

Macro level issues - problems for automotives continue says the Economic Times (https://m.economictimes.com/news/in...s-on-coronavirus/amp_articleshow/74238411.cms). Nissan has extended a shutdown of China based plants and did not give a restart date. Honda did the same and says its new restart date is an eye watering March 11th due to Hubei government instructions.

Singapore - the Business Times thinks that a substantial shift in supply chain strategy away from China due to the US tariffs and this virus will benefit ASEAN countries as countries go for a China +1 approach. It points out that already Vietnam and Thailand have benefited as has Malaysia (https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/as...-could-accelerate-supply-chain-shift-to-asean).

The International Business Times picked up the Dun and Bradstreet white paper I flagged and done a TLDR job on it. If you don't have much time read their version of it instead, will take about 3 min. https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus...srupt-global-supply-chain-affecting-5-2924375

Repost: if you're a forwarder, you may find agility logistics tracker helpful as to what's going on in China: https://www.agility.com/en/pages/coronavirus-operational-update/ - last update was Friday.

Ongoing shortage of raw materials for pharmaceuticals, Indian manufacturers are fucked (Financial Times)
Coronavirus outbreak causes supply problem for India’s drugmakers | Archive

There is no good way to shift production of these raw materials back to US (Breitbart interview from Feb 14)
Expert: China Has ‘Global Chokehold’ on Medicine, Can Shut Down Our Pharmacies, Hospitals in Months | Archive

 

[Buttigieg2020]

Yes.
Raw materials up by at least 1500%, labour and etc all well over 1000%.
Yet the government has laws to prevent mask manufactures from increasing the price of the product.

So something that costs a dollar to make will now be at least 25 dollars. Ordinarily they will sell the product for say 3 dollars and bag the $2 profit, now they have to sell it at $25 to just breakeven, however the state deems this illegal and they are forced to still sell the product for 3 dollars if they want to sell it, which results in astronomical loss since masks are sold by the thousands.

Therefore they decided to keep doors shut.

Hope this sounds less autistic and makes more sense.

Glorious price ceilings comrade!

You would think people would realize why this is a terrible idea by now, especially for emergency supplies.

On the topic of impending rare earth shortage.
Selling out the US’s rare earth industry continues to haunt us. We’ve started mining in the US again, but almost all refining capacity is in China.

 

[RodgerDodger]

Or the economy was a house of cards made to look impressive but would collapse at any road bump.

This is a minor pullback. Investors dont panic over something like this as it isviewed as a temporary disruption. They will re-evaluate after 90 days. Some short term selloffs will happen. But others are snapping up cheap offerings. The real hits are travel and hotels.

 

[Honka Honka Burning Love]

This is a minor pullback. Investors dont panic over something like this as it isviewed as a temporary disruption. They will re-evaluate after 90 days. Some short term selloffs will happen. But others are snapping up cheap offerings. The real hits are travel and hotels.

Again, I thought we were talking about the chink markets and economy.

 

[Agent Abe Caprine]

Looks like Ohio could get a case or two. At least junkies and meth heads aren't in this self quarantine. For now. Neither of those are known for listening to sound advice.

Ohio health officials have asked 175 travelers to self-quarantine to stop spread of potential COVID-19 coronavirus

With new coronavirus clusters outside China, Ohio is stocking up on hospital worker protection equipment, preparing for testing, monitoring travelers.

www.cleveland.com

Ohio's Appalachian region doesn't have the best healthcare. It isn't third world tier, but the towns and places like Chillicothe are pretty poor compared to Northern Ohio. Lots of opioid addicts, shitloads of iffy rehab centers, your usual hillbilly issues, and iffy water.

Some counties have a radiation problem. In Chillicothe, there's a paper mill always blowing nasty smelling smoke around. Lot of smokers around here.

Lots of meth heads, too. This place would be pretty vulnerable compared to the more well off northern counties.

 

[Merry]

Depends on what cheap means.

You can stock up on Sardines, Ramen, Tuna, etc for like $0.11 per serving. That will get you through a couple weeks for under $100. Also get the 5 gal water bottles, just make a wall of them for whatever may come. You could need to boil your own water, those jugs can be used to capture condensation.

I bought 2,000 high-end MREs at the start of this for $4 per serving. This covers the people I care about for a month.

What you really want to stock up on is guns. Food is no good if your neighbors can steal it. Figure out what the gun laws are in your area and buy whatever has the shortest waiting period along with as much ammo as possible. I'm not a gun guy, but I understand Chinese-made AKs are very popular right now. There's a secondary market of people buying metal plates for rifle butts and bayonet holders that fit them popping up in various places.

The US Army published a Survival Guide in the 1940s which is excellent. Find a paper copy and tuck it away just in case you lose Internets. Covers survival food and capturing fresh water, which are necessary if you need to rough it. You should probably make sure you have a tent and a sleeping bag while you're at it.

You'll find Norinco firearms are cheap and very reliable for a Chinese product; their military industry doesn't skimp out on quality

 

[lottalove]

What's up with Italy? Every other state recovers well against the virus but people from Italy drops like flies. Is it a case of some ethnicity differences, Italy has problems before this, poor health care, targetting previously sick people, a weird happenstance, or what?

Maybe there is some thruth to the higher susceptibility of ethnic groups with more ACE2-cells, apart from the evironmental and behavioural influences. Lombardy is in northern Italy, but so is Tuscany. The Toscani genome was the last in the list of populations at higher risk someone posted earlier. I'm neither competent in that realm nor do I know the origin of that list other than someone took it of the 1000 Genomes project somehow. but maybe the Lombardese have comparable genomes?

Spoiler: List

 

[pull over dat ass too fat]

Ohio's Appalachian region doesn't have the best healthcare. It isn't third world tier, but the towns and places like Chillicothe are pretty poor compared to Northern Ohio. Lots of opioid addicts, shitloads of iffy rehab centers, your usual hillbilly issues, and iffy water.

Chillicothe fares better than the surrounding regions (though you're correct when comparing to Northern or Western Ohio). There are some areas around the Hocking with barely any infrastructure. I was over there for a climbing trip and it's shocking it's even inhabitable with how run down it is. I don't know how people even make it by.

 

[RodgerDodger]

Italy is a shithole and has been for centuries. That's often difficult for people to fully understand - thinking it to be quite cultured, and thus well off - but it has little industry outside of the North and didn't benefit at all from various waves of government mismanagement. Add to the fact that it is currently a free port to anyone who wants to migrate into the EU; and you have to wonder why it hasn't gotten a pandemic sooner.

It's pretty much serving the same role right now as it did during the Black Death: first to be hit. It's easy to contain incoming air traffic from Asia, less easy to contain boat traffic from Africa and the Middle East.

As they say, “All roads lead to Rome”.

 

[Glad I couldn't help]

The Quebec Ministry of Health is trying to find those passengers who sat next to the woman who flew to BC, then tested positive for coronavirus.

 

[uncleShitHeel]

I, too, wonder about if since I had a possible fever and head symptoms that fizzled and lingered and weren't abysmal but were indeed strange, along with another person who went through the same thing, if there have been less severe strains or inoculations already abound somehow. Wonder if I would be able to get a blood test to just see, but it's probably a long shot that any of this is on point. I wonder if this thing is just erratic in it's behavior within different places/people.

Also, to bio/med kiwis, would constantly intaking diuretics help people get "better" faster? I mean, in a rudimentary sense, that seems solid to me, but I could be thinking of such things in a far too simplified manner.

Curious, auntyShitHeel and I got knocked on our asses by flu like symptoms in mid to late Jan.

For context I live in Kai Horo. It's the tail end of summer here. Flu season doesn't normally hit until winter (June - Aug).

Maybe I've already had it and the worst thing I get to watch is a break down of the supply chain?

 

[janekop]

Rhys is kind of right but wrong. The "regular flu" has a lower fatality rate but a much higher case infection rate (more people die from it yearly but because more people get it). The fatality rate of COVID-19 is much, much higher than the flu (2-3% vs 0.01% [although fatality rate can only be measure after an epidemic ends]) although it has as of yet infected fewer people.

 

[⠠⠠⠅⠑⠋⠋⠁⠇⠎ ⠠⠠⠊⠎ ⠠⠠⠁ ⠠⠠⠋⠁⠛]

Alright so it's been a day, still got family dinner to… "look up" to… Yeah let's go with that. But some hours ago I told you I was ruminating a little something suspicious and it's far from gone away since then, only made it worse actually, so now that I got some rest time let me tell you of a few facts I got and how they affect my view on what might or might not be happening.

Let's actually start with a few points of data that might be relevant later but aren't immediately important:
-Winter 17-18 was THE most lethal flu season in spain in the last decade with 472 deaths. Yeah that's not a lot but for the flu it is at least here.
-Winter 19-20, more concretely mid january 2020 to early february 2020 has been THE most infective flu epidemic in cadiz since we even bothered taking notes how many infected there have ever been, exceeding by twice the numbers required to be declared an epidemic. This is not to say however it's been any more LETHAL. It's in fact been as benign as it could get when it comes to lethality and our healthcare system didn't even need buffing past the usual, they did recieve some added visits but nothing close to emergency levels, most people didn't even notice they had the flu until being screened for symptoms and were just told to avoid interactions, and most ignored that warning because all their friends had been told the same so they went "well if we're all sick anyway who cares", even the ones with symptoms only got some headaches, sometimes stomachaches, and maybe a bit of a sore throat or a cough, a few reported getting the runny shits, It has been actually way less severe than most years, by a lot. (While I was outside the province I got the shits myself, which apparently for this year makes me one of the most severe cases around... Fucking weird I tell you.)

Alright so prologue aside. I did notice one thing today. Looking at people I did not see a single person that showed symptoms of anything. But talking to people, almost everyone told me they got a cold. Like I mean EVERYONE had a mild cold. I made some calls to the people I know in healthcare and they told me than while after early february the flu patients had all but gone indeed doctors did seem to almost all have cold symptoms and the more nervous had been asked to be put where no risky patients go due to thinking they might have the flu themselves, so while the system was working just fine they did get a bit on edge with that and didn't know if they should expect round two, which since Corona-chan was winking at them from the other side of Eurasia they were dreading. Talking to the friend whose father is in chemo due to lung cancer, their mom got the flu recently, and noticed the symptoms just a few hours after HAVING SEX with the guy, you can imagine how much they freaked out, but he has no symptoms, her symptoms are mild and she's self quarantining even though the rest of the family is fairly sure while the flu is no STD if he didn't catch it after snu snuing he's probably not catching it.

Here are then the 3 last bits of info I got for you.
1-I was vaccinated this year. Since I have contact with multiple medical personnel I do it just for the sake of herd immunity. It didn't do shit, which probably explains why so many people got sick, the vaccines just straight up didn't work this year. I dunno the numbers outside of cadiz but they used the same vaccine in all of spain so it's probably similar.
2-A friend of mine has pet rodents. He's told me a weak ago both him and his pets caught the flu, he treat his rodents for the parasites most of them have which start getting worse when they get sick and gave them basic care, they've ALL recovered heartily. He told me this because he was worried he might've caused the symptoms because they were so mild that he didn't know if it might be a cold and therefore he might've caused his rodents to get sick due to not controling temperature. But after he told me his symptoms, they included fever. That was no cold.
3-I am currently sick again. This morning I woke up with a bit of a headache, thought it was the travel, most of the day was fine but after I took a really stupid decission and wound up running halfway through the town so as not to be late I started to get worse, and being outside all day walking up and down didn't help. Now I got some fairly typical cold symptoms and, well… a mild fever. I think you see where I'm going.

All of cadiz and probably spain seems to have simultaneously got this january a weird flu that ignores vaccines, can infect from humans to rodents and is very easy to pass along. And we're now seeing obvious signs of reinfections. Yeah I'mma say it I think best girl Corona might've been giving Spain the dirtiest of lapdances since january and no one noticed because she was wearing a paper mask with "common cold" written on it. Now, let me ellaborate and first of all offer alternatives.

The climate is shiiiiiiiit. Every year it's getting wackier. So it could just be a cold. The first time I got the "flu" this year I had no fever I just thought it was that because it was a tad too severe to be a cold so I self quarantined and that was that so I might've had a cold back then and now have the flu. As for my friend, he had the flu but his rodents could just have a cold, we don't know, the only treatment they recieved was for parasites most rodents are born with aside from that they got warmth and food that's hardly something that can discern between flu and cold, and even then I guess some strands of the flu could probably infect rodents like that it's not unheard off. So it might, hell, it probably is just a cold and the a new strand of the flu which is way less lethal than usual but hasn't been added into the vaccine properly and as such herd immunity failed like a bitch. This makes sense, its the rational explanation, it's the "null hypothesis" equivalent until further evidence can be shown. But let me get my tinfoil hat on for a second.

If this really WAS Corona-chan's doing, we might be able to predict some things: Looking at italy it seems they have the same, all the dead people were both old and sick, the deaths are way bellow what you'd expect of even the flu so far, and the only one that does not fit that criteria was someone that was fine until he RAN A MARATHON WHILE SICK, which any marathon runner or person who knows a marathon runner can tell you makes perfect sense, like, excess exercise does a fucking number in your immune system, hell I got to be living proof of that today, and a marathon is way, way harder for the immune system to endure than what I did. Though I am one unfit bastard. So point is, our friendly neiborhood waifu might actually be LESS lethal than the USUAL FLU. It certainly would fit what I'm seeing now. And since this shit's been doing the rounds since january it's likely not gonna get worse. So china's deathtoll really might just be "because china" and not "because corona", we might be looking at a virus so fucking weak than almost an entire province can get it without even noticing it or having any uptick in deaths. The doctors aren't screening for this shit because they just mark severe cases down as the flu and most cases don't even come to them, hell most people just tell this to you casually in confidence but don't think it's anything other than a cold and therefore would never go to the hospital at all. After all, if there's less deaths than most years you wouldn't go checking for the scary chinese pandemic now would you?

Aside from that explanation, there's also the possibility than spain is resilient because spain, in which case it might be because corona has some parts in common with the flu (they're certainly very similar in function, though I don't see why they'd be similar enough in biology honestly) to the point where having gotten the flu this year (if it's this second outbreak of "common colds") or the much more severe strand last years could've immunized the population at least partially. Or it might just be than Iberian genes are saving our asses like african genes saved those prostitutes who were immune to HIV. I dunno. But… If this is Corona's doing, then she's one laughable sonuvabitch.

Either way I haven't told anyone about my suspicions yet. Most people just think they got a cold and everone around them is healthy, I just… pay more attention to these things because as you know, I'm a bit of a sperg. And by that I mean I'm a medically diagnosed sperg, so yeah scratch that "a little bit", and I don't wanna alarm people for nothing if I'm wrong. Either way I already planned to quarantine myself after carnaval and I'll be doing that, but, I do wonder if my fellow Gaditanos might be about to turn into the "rats" to this "black death", as I said, most of them come here for a week and then go to where they work, all over fucking europe. So... I guess if in a few weeks we see europe turn into a christmas tree then, I'm not sorry it's your damned fault for snuffing the life off of our city and then using us as cheap, educated slave lavor you greedy globalist fucks, TAKE THAT SHIT NIGGAS! Muahahahahaha.

Using the power invested in me by hysterical internet doomers, I pronounce you infected with coronavirus.

You'll find Norinco firearms are cheap and very reliable for a Chinese product; their military industry doesn't skimp out on quality

And USG banned their import because they produced a cheap, reliable product. Interesting.

 

[dopy]

Looks like Ohio could get a case or two. At least junkies and meth heads aren't in this self quarantine. For now. Neither of those are known for listening to sound advice.

Ohio health officials have asked 175 travelers to self-quarantine to stop spread of potential COVID-19 coronavirus

With new coronavirus clusters outside China, Ohio is stocking up on hospital worker protection equipment, preparing for testing, monitoring travelers.

www.cleveland.com

Ohio's Appalachian region doesn't have the best healthcare. It isn't third world tier, but the towns and places like Chillicothe are pretty poor compared to Northern Ohio. Lots of opioid addicts, shitloads of iffy rehab centers, your usual hillbilly issues, and iffy water.

Some counties have a radiation problem. In Chillicothe, there's a paper mill always blowing nasty smelling smoke around. Lot of smokers around here.

Lots of meth heads, too. This place would be pretty vulnerable compared to the more well off northern counties.

it's okay, they can just ship all the immigrants of dubious legal status in cincy and columbus to fill the empty houses there, no problem

 

[pwnest injun]

This is a minor pullback. Investors dont panic over something like this as it isviewed as a temporary disruption. They will re-evaluate after 90 days. Some short term selloffs will happen. But others are snapping up cheap offerings. The real hits are travel and hotels.

Oh what a 90 days it's going to be...

 

[Ivan Shatov]

Kiwis - is it too early to start planning a Farms safe zone? Or maybe pick several locations to gather when things get hot, reduce reliance on public services.

With proper planning, we could have our own quarantine camp, stock it with rations / ammo / medicine, establish protocols for detection and containment of the infected. We could set up HAM radios for communications between the safe zones, maybe even solar panels to ensure continuous electric service. This could come together fast.

Local officials where I live are a bunch of Communists who are already blaming white males for valuing profit over disease. Pretty sure it will be time to skip town if there's a single confirmed case. Would rather be shitposting from a secluded mountain retreat with an autistic militia than take my chances with society.