Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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Everyone is wondering when China will return to work. While it may be tempting to consider past epidemics or labor strikes to gauge how quickly that could happen, the industrial shutdown from the coronavirus is looking more like a natural disaster than anything else. It may even get worse.

Chinese industrial activity remains severely depressed. One tracker shows an even sharper, albeit shorter, drop than the global financial crisis in 2008. Coal consumption at six major power plants is well below normal operating levels this time of year. Already, global suppliers’ delivery times are getting longer, particularly in Germany and Japan, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Companies that have come back online are struggling to return to full capacity. While some government controls have loosened in recent days, strict quarantines in key manufacturing hubs continue to take a toll.

Most employees remain at home, and things, in theory, could return to normal when China’s 300 million migrant workers get back to their jobs. But that’s now looking distant. Just 20% to 30% will resume before March, according to Jefferies Financial Group Inc. By the second quarter, that proportion will only reach 60% to 80%.

Interruptions from labor strikes, for example, will hit the bottom line and delay shipments for a few weeks, while the economic hit from severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003 was relatively short-lived. By contrast, events like hurricanes, fires and floods, have a longer-term effect. Factories get destroyed, roads become difficult to traverse and logistics routes are upended by the destruction. Firms eventually run out of inventories. Until reconstruction work is well on its way, it’s hard to get the industrial cogs turning.

Hundreds of natural disasters occur globally each year that threaten lives and livelihoods. In the U.S., around 40% to 60% of small businesses never reopen their doors as a result, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The ripple effects can be severe and cascade globally. A study of 41 major U.S. disasters showed that $1 of lost sales for suppliers led to a $2.4 loss for their downstream customers.

Consider Japan’s earthquake in March 2011, the fourth-largest ever recorded. Manufacturing output fell 15 percentage points that month and didn’t recover until August. Industrial production of transport equipment tanked, flowing through to exports. Japanese automakers including Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. saw their domestic production slump 63% in March.

American companies with a big dependence on Japanese parts suffered, too. It took the better part of a year to get production levels back to where they were before the earthquake; U.S. manufacturing output fell by 1% in April and stayed low for almost six months.

The coronavirus’s spread will be even more disruptive. From its large network of ports and industrial parks to the billions of yuan in subsidies, China is the nerve center of global manufacturing. In 2015, the country made up nearly a quarter of the value-added share in global imports. There simply aren’t enough alternative suppliers for the crucial, if basic, parts manufactured by China's thousands of small and medium companies. Even if Beijing provides the cash, businesses are hamstrung with the regulatory burden of reopenings and labor shortages. The network effect will be amplified and prolonged, studies have shown.

The trouble is, China Inc. won’t get back to work until these small and medium enterprises do. While the rate of return varies across sectors, manufacturers of so-called intermediate inputs, which are shipped globally, are having the hardest time. A survey of 2,240 such companies showed that more than 90% of respondents had delayed business resumption. A large portion haven’t decided when they will reopen.

Even companies like Toyota and Honda are struggling to get fully back online in China, given their dependence on local parts makers. The companies partially restarted operations at some plants as of last week.

The longer businesses are closed the higher the likelihood that supply chains start breaking down, as firms run out of inventories and stockpiles. And even when they do return, factories won’t be picking up where they left off. Volkswagen AG’s joint venture with China FAW Group Co., for instance, resumed at four plants last week, but won’t be at full steam until May. It will try to recoup losses by November, according to a production manager cited in state-run China Daily. That looks optimistic.

Meanwhile, manufacturers have few choices. Beaten by costs and pricing, companies now depend on lean supply chains. All the advances in manufacturing — such as Toyota’s famed “just-in-time manufacturing” — are premised on minimal inventory and short lead times. That looks like it could backfire. As Toyota’s president Akio Toyoda said last week, “Automobiles have a broad base, and there are various things like the status of parts supplies that you don't know until you put everything in motion again.”

It’s only natural to look for comparisons that put a bookend on this crisis. Knowing that SARS cases dwindled after a few months and the economy eventually rebounded can be comforting, to a certain degree. Yet we’re starting to see that the coronavirus outbreak has few precedents. It may only be a matter of time before this episode becomes the benchmark for future disruptions.
Nasty business all around.

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"Got the flu? quarantined and bored? no worries, come on and COOM!"
 
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New Evaluation of the R0 estimated between 4.7 and 6.6 by the National Laboratory of Los Alamos

(Not surprising when you payed attention of the early days numbers of the Wuhan Outbreak and people were speculating already around 4 to 5.)


Measles got nothing on this bitch. Or maybe it's the other way around, this is just from "Observation" of numbers in other countries than China, i guess.
 
The jury's still out on domesticated animals being able to transmit the disease, but that's still not stopping Chinese in cities and villages from killing them.


Beating a dog to death with a stick, likely unnecessary destruction of pets (the dog being led away to a firing squad while wagging his tail killed me), and then there's the targeting of doctors, putting people in crematoriums while they're still alive, and consumption of bats and other animals: let them fucking die. I really don't see an upside to letting the general populace escape unscathed, and from their general lifestyle and hygiene, they don't seem keen on surviving.

Sure, not every Chinese citizen is like this, but goddamn if it doesn't seem like most of them are.
 
Beating a dog to death with a stick, likely unnecessary destruction of pets (the dog being led away to a firing squad while wagging his tail killed me), and then there's the targeting of doctors, putting people in crematoriums while they're still alive, and consumption of bats and other animals: let them fucking die. I really don't see an upside to letting the general populace escape unscathed, and from their general lifestyle and hygiene, they don't seem keen on surviving.

Sure, not every Chinese citizen is like this, but goddamn if it doesn't seem like most of them are.
Stereotypes are, after all, collective memory. In this case, their reputation precedes them and it's out in the open.
 
CDC confirms six cases of coronavirus in San Antonio

SAN ANTONIO — SAN ANTONIO - The Centers for Disease Control said there are six confirmed cases COVID-19 in the San Antonio area, including five cases among the group of passengers from the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

The five infected individuals are being cared for at the Texas Center for Infectious Diseases while 144 are still being monitored at Lackland twice a day for symptoms. Their quarantine is scheduled to end March 2, but four others are being evaluated with symptoms.

"Because the passengers on the Diamond Princess were in a close setting where there has been a significant spread of COVID-19, they are considered at high-risk for infection and we expect to see additional confirmed cases among this group," the CDC said in a statement.

The sixth coronavirus case involved an American evacuee who arrived in San Antonio from Wuhan, China. The CDC said this person remains in federal isolation at a local medical facility.


"CDC is working closely with Texas health officials, and other local partners. At this time, we continue to believe the risk of coronavirus exposure to the general public is low, including in San Antonio and Bexar County," the CDC said in the statement.

There are now 53 cases of COVID-19 in the country, 18 more than there were Friday. Globally, there are at least 79,000 confirmed cases and more than 2,600 deaths.
 
No idea how accurate is this, but makes you think. Anyone here is well informed regarding weird Korean cults?

Not much regarding this one, but I was accosted by two Korean-looking guys a few months ago, claiming they were doing a theological survey so I said why not.

First things first they asked me on the Trinity and its' members. After I answered, they went "Do you know there is a God the Mother?" quoting some wildly out of context verses.

Got home and told my mom to find out this Moonies shit has been going on for some time since the 80's. I thought it was a joke on Keith Moon, but it seems legit so...

Edit: Just remembered on their propensity for holding mass weddings. Wouldn't it be a crying shame if a virus decided to crash the wedding reception....
 
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What about the red death?
BETTER DEAD THAN RED

Say i wanted to talk to a distant family member located in one of the areas just confirmed for the virus what should i say? Im thinking something like "hows it been going with you, i heard there are a lot of cases of the virus near you?"

"Say, if worst comes to worst, can I have your stuff?"
 
First Coronavirus Case Hits Greece, Shutdown Contingency Plans in Place

THESSALONIKI- Just ahead of the first reported case of the coronavirus being confirmed by Greece’s Health Ministry, the agency said it was planning emergency measures that could effectively close down public spaces and gatherings if an outbreak spreads.

That came before it was reported that a 38-year-old woman who had traveled to Italy, where there were more than 200 cases and at least six deaths in the north of country, was found to have the virus on her return, said Kathimerini.

She and her family will be quarantined for an estimated 14 days but there were no reports on whether precautions would be further extended or other more drastic measures taken for now.

The spread worsened in Italy on Feb. 26 with another 30 cases confirmed as the head a Greek Health Ministry committee of experts on contagious diseases, Dimitris Tsiodras, said most cases of the virus are mild and that the public should observe basic hygiene rules such as frequent hand-washing and covering their mouths when coughing.

The government measures would include restricting travelers from countries where it has appeared and other parts of the scheme go as far as almost shutting down the country including suspending schools, universities, churches, theaters, cinemas, sports, and public services, said government spokesman Stelios Petsas of a legislative act, the paper said.

Travelers from virus-hit countries could be hit with bars at air, sea, rail and road links to keep them out as Greece has already done in suspending its visa service in China, where the virus first appeared.

The suspension will include all enclosed areas where public gatherings take place, as well as restrictions on public transport, which could effectively shut down the country as the revenue-critical tourist season approaches.

The Health Ministry would also be given broad powers to let medical authorities step in to deal with an outbreak or epidemic as fears are rising Greece could be hit because of its close proximity to Italy.

The western Greek ports of Patra – Greece’s third largest city – and Igoumenitsa – are major destinations for visitors and residents from Italy to enter Greece and continues to operate although health authorities are there to advise travelers on preventive measures.

The legislation will allow the requisition by the state of private clinics, including intensive care units, as well as hotels and other private accommodation which will be also used for quarantine purposes.

The act will also enable the transfer of medical staff and ambulance to areas of greatest need and also speed funding for new hirings and the procurement of necessary medicines, the report also said.

Doctors in Patra cleared a man suspected of bringing the highly contagious new coronavirus into Greece from Italy and another in Thessaloniki was also reported to have tested negative.
 
Well finally... public health England are going to be testing sentinel samples. They should have been doing this several weeks ago, but better late than never. Results from this (if released) will be interedting

“Health officials have announced they will start to test at least 600 extra people every week for the coronavirus in the UK, through local hospitals and GP surgeries.
Some 11 hospitals and around 100 doctors' practices – the locations of which are unknown – have been enrolled into a scheme to automatically test patients with severe chest infections such as flu.
The surveillance programme is intended to ramp up preparations for people infected with the fast-spreading virus to bring it onto UK soil.
Until now, only people who had started to feel ill after returning from East Asia had been tested. Now, broader testing will be done to try to stay a step ahead of the virus.
The hospitals and GPs are expected to be dotted around the country to give a representative sample of the population.
So if, for example, cases are diagnosed in Yorkshire, authorities will know they need to increase efforts to contain it there and stop it spreading to other areas.”

Better late than never, but this wasn’t done at the start and it should have been. I’m not involved in this kind of political level preparedness (more’s the pity, and I have to say it’d be a fun job...) but it doesn’t give me great confidence that the UK or anywhere else is truly understanding the threat level posed by emergent diseases.
As I’ve said before, emerging plagues are an interest of mine and each time something like SARS popped up I’ve said the same thing: that each of these pathogens has the potential to wreak havoc on society. Not that ‘panic this is the big one’ but that eventually, one will be bad and that we should be prepared.
Every single time they’re squelched, and the media starts the character assassination of those who said the same thing, we have become more complacent and less likely to plan and prepare properly.
The big society-damaging threats are either localised natural disasters like earthquakes, wars and conflicts, which can be local or not, and disease. (Stuff like massive carrington event reruns too, but we don’t have much control over that. ) Of those, disease is the single most likely to harm the entire planet and yet we are stunningly stupid on a governmental level about it.
- We should be having in-country capacity for making almost everything on the essential medications list,
- We should be focusing huge effort in finding new antibiotics
- We should be focusing huge effort on generalised vaccine platforms that can be adapted quickly to new pathogens.
- we should have MUCH better surveillance and reporting for novel pathogens. This entire outbreak could have been managed differently with political will to close borders and proper disease surveillance. The latter is what the WHO should be doing and they have failed epically. Some outbreaks they have handled well (can’t fault them for how they handled the recent Ebola stuff, that was textbook) but those have been in countries with no significant economic power and who can be told to shut up and be helped. As soon as the Chinese asked them to look the other way they did. That cannot keep happening.
 
In the hands of someone who doesn't know shit about guns? An empty 12-gauge. Practice looking unhinged while working the pump. The sound alone will probably make people scatter. But it takes a not-few amount of hours practice at a range before I'd say someone isn't just a danger to themselves and people around them with a gun, so if you don't have the time to devote to actually learning how to use it well before Corona's slutting it up in the US cities, it's too late to get a gun.

That being said, if you do unwisely buy yourself a gun without training in how to use it, at least buy frangible rounds for it. They're designed to blow apart on impact, so in theory if you miss the person you're shooting at, they won't punch through the wall and your kid on the other side of the wall. It will at least reduce the odds of you accidentally killing your family.
I say if you don't know how to use guns use a machete. If corona Chan rapes us for a long time at some point ammo is gonna run out you can sharpen and reuse a blade. The art of war says the best kind of fight is not to fight at all your gonna want to make it where you decide to hole up not worth it to loot because at some point people are going to be looting. I'd go ahead if I was in that predicament figure out what the military uses as coding for possibly contaminated houses. They'll probably mark it in some way then go ahead and tag your home with it and make it look like no one has been there for awhile.
If the home has an attic I'd put all my supplies up there and hang out there at night with no lighting. It has disadvantage of being locked in but at least your shit isn't nearly accessible as say on the ground floor.
Dont do this though if you have no means of escape. If there is no attic remove the floor boards of the stairs and use a ladder to get to the ground floor. That would impede movement for any would be intruders and give you a point of defense if you use fire arms.
Also read the zombie survival guide.
 
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so an infected person in croatia went to a football game filled with 45 000 spectators, shit is about to fucking explode in eastern europe
 
I say if you don't know how to use guns use a machete. If corona Chan rapes us for a long time at some point ammo is gonna run out you can sharpen and reuse a blade. The art of war says the best kind of fight is not to fight at all your gonna want to make it where you decide to hole up not worth it to loot because at some point people are going to be looting. I'd go ahead if I was in that predicament figure out what the military uses as coding for possibly contaminated houses. They'll probably mark it in some way then go ahead and tag your home with it and make it look like no one has been there for awhile.
If the home has an attic I'd put all my supplies up there and hang out there at night with no lighting. It has disadvantage of being locked in but at least your shit isn't nearly accessible as say on the ground floor.
Dont do this though if you have no means of escape. If there is no attic remove the floor boards of the stairs and use a ladder to get to the ground floor. That would impede movement for any would be intruders and give you a point of defense if you use fire arms.
Just remember how the Africans killed 3 million with machetes, aim for the wrist or elbow then move on to your next target while they are bleeding out from the lost hand/arm.
 
Just remember how the Africans killed 3 million with machetes, aim for the wrist or elbow then move on to your next target while they are bleeding out from the lost hand/arm.
Also machetes have some decent other uses. Also don't use a katana unless you know it's the legit deal and not some cheap knock off; a cheap knock off will break after 1 to 2 uses the real katana last forever.
 
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