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Wait. So the BBC. The PUBLICLY FUNDED, GUVERNMENTALLY CONTROLLED tv station... instead of explaining the situation rationally and contextually. Just went full "YEHR ALL GUNNA DAAAYYY! PROTECT THE TEAAAA!"? ... corona cane for my guts, international politics keeps coming for my sides. Ouch.Its successful because it works on everything, if it heats it to kill it or rinses it away to be murdered by chemicals in a water treatment plant then you're unlikely to infect people or be infected yourself. Campaigns like this are hilariously effective in the UK and have been since WW2. Simple, easy messages like the "Wash your hands to Happy Birthday twice" or "To the (UK) national anthem." will work because it's not that much more than most people wash their hands anyway.
Oh, meanwhile the newspapers are starting to act out as around half of the 115 infected have been sent home with self isolation notices from their respective NHS Trusts, and some panicky twat of a Doctor in a London Hospital is saying how badly prepared the UK is. Being as that's over in the bug-people run Failing New York Times it makes me wonder which Labour Party advisor he secretly is and is never introduced as such on the BBC.
However, in the past 24 hours UK cases have gone from 115.... to 116.
As much as we wish it, we can't just roll tanks through Corona-chou whilst Coronabaasan blows her brains out in a bunker somewhere.You’re right, but in the end, Corona-Chan is the great equalizer. Nobody is completely safe from Corona-Chan.
Da fuq? I've been having some mild difficulty breathing along with chest tightness and a dry cough the last couple of days. Did you guys have weird itchy bumps on your hands prior to this? I thought I was having an alergic reaction or something.
Johannesburg (CNN)The first case of the novel coronavirus in South Africa has been diagnosed, the country's health minister announced Thursday.
The patient, a 38-year-old man, is part of a group of 10 people, including the man's wife, that returned March 1 to South Africa from Italy, Dr. Zweli Mkhize said in a statement.
The patient went to a general practitioner on March 3 with fever, headache, malaise, sore throat and cough, Mkhize said. A nurse took a swab, and it was delivered to a lab.
The patient has self-isolated since March 3, Mkhize said. The couple have two children.
The doctor who treated the patient is also self-isolating, and health authorities have sent a tracer team with epidemiologists to KwaZulu-Natal province for contact tracing. he said.
Africa has recorded fewer cases of coronavirus than on other continents. Those affected mostly have traveled recently to Europe.
South Africans will head back from Japan and Wuhan
Two South Africans who were aboard the coronavirus-hit Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan have tested negative for the coronavirus and will soon return to their country, the government said in a separate statement.
South African officials also have secured an aircraft to evacuate South African citizens in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak that has killed more than 3,000 people, mostly in mainland China.
Hmmm... it looks like every country with strong globalist ties that makes ample commerce with asia has been blobbed while the eastern block with stronger nationalist ties that protected its borders only have minor outbreaks so far. Must be my imagination though, there's no way globalism can be bad, ever, obviously. Our chink overlords said so!we did it folks!
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remember, there's no "I" in team.
in other news, the EU is prepared to rope itself
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local Walmart restocked their rubbing alcohol
I picked up an extra 70% because I use a lot anyway
I had to take a family member to Urgent Care tonight. While waiting for them to come out, was talking with the receptionists. They mentioned it's been hard for their office to get supplies and people have been stealing their hand sanitizers and face masks. I don't live in the ghetto. I live in pretty nice suburban america. I didn't expect shit like that.
The reported numbers are probably not correct imo, given f/e Russia's relationship with China (it's their largest trading partner by far) and then Russia's relationship with Eastern Europe. And some slavic countries even have a large population of Chinese people and have many different cultures existing together, perhaps not even speaking the same language. Given the timing to Chinese New Year, the delayed response to recognize the virus from China and the fact that the epicenter of the outbreak in China was a major transport hub, you can pretty much guarantee they've got the WuFlu. But Eastern Europe is interesting in that unlike authoritarian Asian countries, the people know they're constantly lied to and sort of resign themselves to it. So the people and the government have a very weird relationship with each other where they manufacture their own reality, all the while being ever-aware of the fact that it's manufactured. This is a topic that's super interesting to me but I've written walls of text about it on this site already in the past, so at risk of sperging out on a tangent, if you want to know more I recommend starting by reading a bit about Vladislav Surkov. From what we've seen so far, trying to hide outbreaks doesn't appear to be an effective strategy, but given that people know that they're frequently lied to, hopefully they take precautions regardless of what leaders are saying.Hmmm... it looks like every country with strong globalist ties that makes ample commerce with asia has been blobbed while the eastern block with stronger nationalist ties that protected its borders only have minor outbreaks so far. Must be my imagination though, there's no way globalism can be bad, ever, obviously. Our chink overlords said so!
Yeah this is becoming a problem. Respirators are selling for quite a bit on ebay and craigslist, so it's not only patients that are doing it.
A hospital near me had boxes of N95s mysteriously go missing from central supply and that door is locked with a keypad. Only nurses and EVS know the code, so...
It seems clear from the experts that everyone has panicked for no good reason, and the press and Dems have stirred fear when only caution was needed. It is also clear that if you are healthy, you are not going to get very sick, and in 2 weeks you will be fine if you do get sick, and thereafter immune. As soon as soon as someone presents as having symptoms, they are isolated in the US, so containment is happening at the local level on an emergency basis which will materially help contain it. The problem is you can have the virus and it does not show for a few days during which time you infect others. Not different than the flu. This is not 1918 flu, nor the bubonic plague. The administration did the exact right thing blocking anyone from China, and isolating anyone from the rescue flights and the cruise ship. You are vastly more at risk from the flu than from Corona. If you now have a serious heart condition, or some other serious health issue, you are at risk to other health problems being fatal, Corona being just one. Bottom line, life goes on as usual. The Fed will drop rates in two weeks, or less, by 50 BP likely, just for psychological reasons, not for any economic reason. It will make no difference to borrowing rates since the ten year is already below 1.1% or thereabout, and the ten year swap is the main index rate used by most lenders. The ten year might drop further, but we will just have to see what happens with foreign cash fleeing here for safety, driving rates down further. What the Fed can, and likely will do, is step up QE to make sure there is plenty of liquidity in the system now. Treasury is also likely to tell banks to go easy on struggling companies for a while. The SEC is possibly going to try to reinstate the uptick rule to stop the wild swings caused by algo traders.
The announcement by Apple that it is fully back in production in China was not coincidental. I am sure Cook and Trump coordinated that, and it is meant to reassure the markets that supply chains will be restarting in China, and economic life is getting back to normal. It was a key announcement. We just need a few more major companies to announce that their factories in China are back in full operation to reassure the markets about supply chains. Then you will see a V recovery in stocks. Keep in mind that Mexico is a bigger supplier of parts and products than is China, and with USMCA, that supply line is now in much better shape. Boeing has had a far worse impact on GDP (.5%) than the virus, and it is likely getting recertified by May or at worst, June, or maybe sooner. That alone will be a big boost to the economy and the market. For every 1% decline in Chinese GDP, world GDP declines .5%.One of the interesting outcomes in China is that all sorts of school classes at all levels are now online and are being used by students. It might become the way class is taught in many areas going forward but it shows how people and institutions find ways to respond to a crisis.
It is clear we have a top expert team working on this, and they are all non-partisan professionals who are not going to lie nor alter their medical advice for Trump or anyone. The number of cases is still miniscule and one assumes they will figure out how the cases with no travel or other connection happened. The virus did not just fall from the sky. There will be some more cases. One just showed up here in Sarasota. One from the cruise liner who is still in isolation was on TV and said it is nothing at all, and if he was not confined he would be going to work as usual. In addition, spring is almost here, and these infections apparently die off in spring according to the experts. By next year they will have a vaccine most likely, and shortly they will have treatments. We should all take comfort in having the top experts in the world totally involved, and dealing with this every day. In short-relax. Get on with your life and invest. We are at or near the bottom unless Bernie sweeps on Tuesday, which now seems unlikely, except in CA of course where even highly intelligent young people will vote for him. They are imbued with social justice doctrinaire from college, and seem to have zero understanding of what Bernie’s policies mean to the economy and the people they claim to concerned about. If you never had a history or econ course, you would not understand any of the reality of Bernie. It now looks like the establishment is lining up behind Biden. He has no chance against Trump. If it looks like a brokered convention, Bernie will not be the nominee, and then his people will revolt and not vote. If he is the nominee, he gets trounced, as do down ballot Dems.
China still refuses to give the WHO or our CDC all the information needed about the virus. They want to show the world they managed the crisis on their own , and did not need the CDC or WHO. In fact Dr Fauchi, our top expert in infectious disease who is helping to manage the problem here, was the one who set up China’s CDC many years ago, but they will not give him any data now which would help the US design programs to fight the problem. They want to be the ones who say they are the preeminent country. Classic China. China is also the source of a majority of drug components. How scary is that. The US DOD is also partially dependent for certain components to weapons. Trump has been working hard to stop that.
January personal income was up .6%. Very strong. Spending was up .2%, good, but not great, which means savings are up. Good in case of a slowdown. Low income worker wages are up 6%. A very good number. Core inflation was only up .1%.. A new research study by two top economists shows what I have been saying for a while. Inflation is overstated. The overall PCE index has risen by 1.5% annually since 2008. The revised number in the research paper is 1.1%. Between 1988 and 2018 the numbers were originally 2.1%, but is revised by the researchers to 1.9%. They sight mobile phones as an example. They used hours used for talk and data download as the way to measure. Use rose five fold. Consider that now you can download and watch a movie on your phone which you could not do until recently. Between 2007 and 2018 prices for the phones measured by hours used therefore dropped by 50% per year. Data used per dollar spent doubled annually. A broader measure of smart phone prices dropped 42% per year. Phones were just one of the indexes used to develop the new measure of inflation, but they are a very good example of what is happening. It clearly demonstrates what I and many economists have been saying- inflation is over stated and does not account for value creation of many products adequately due to major technology enhancements. This study means interest rates will likely remain low for several years. It also means that as technology continues to bring much greater value improvements to a variety of products, and as logistics continues to make shipping far more efficient and lower cost, inflation in the US will probably remain low for many years. That means personal savings and consumption should continue to grow as a dollar will buy more value than any price increase. Online shopping will grow, and that will increase price transparency, and that means prices are hard to be raised much beyond production cost increases. However, the entire policy of holding fixed income securities for retirement is bogus. You will make nil return for the next several years, at least if you are in quality bonds. Back to my belief that you are much better to own very good stocks that pay good dividends-i.e. JP Morgan or Home Depot, which pay as much as some good quality bonds, and much more than Treasuries, but over time have very good long term upside cap gains. If the 30 year stays under 2%, for much longer, then fixed income makes no sense and holds a lot of risk that rates will rise even a little later this year, which will mean capital losses. The key for the US is how much demand slows over the next few weeks. Hard to know yet.
One of the benefits of a slowdown in China is commodity prices have collapsed, so manufacturing costs in the US will remain lower than they otherwise would have been. Very good for manufacturing profits. Oil prices at the mid forties is also a major help to corporate profit margins, and to consumer cash flow. This along with historic low mortgage rates and a now booming housing market, all spell good mitigation for any US slowdown. This is the opposite of 2008. However, there is so much uncertainty now, nobody can make any credible forecast of how this will play out. My view is optimistic, but I could be very wrong.
The risk is if the economy slows too much due to a lack of demand from consumers, which could result in financial issues. There are too many companies that are over levered and could be in trouble if a slowdown is material, or lasts long. Not probable, but possible. The number of BBB rated companies, and others with even lower ratings, is where to look for problems. The good news is that with the ten year and two year are at record lows so a modification of these loans will be at much lower rates and that will mitigate the problem to some degree. This will help frackers survive. The Fed will very likely keep their modified QE of buying short term Treasuries and pumping liquidity into the market to keep things from becoming a serious issue. If you hold junk bonds, you could have losses soon as the economy slows over the next couple of months. Bottom line, there are still many major unknowns making it very hard to make a solid forecast, but the good news is the Fed and the administration are ahead of the wave this time, and are doing all they can to mitigate the slowdown and the virus impact. My assumption is things will be materially improved in a month or so as the virus does not become a crisis in the US, China gets back to work and supply chains are back full time. Once that happens the stock market will recover solidly. In the meantime we are likely seeing the bottom as investors realize the world has not ended and the economy is not going to go into recession. Q1 will be slow, but by May the virus will be going away and life will return to normal. The forecasts of no growth in earnings this year seems to me to be based on no reliable data, and another case of a pundit getting out over his skis. If Bernie is the nominee then capex will be slower until the election, but the general economy driven by consumers will recover by spring and will grow. Now is the time to be invested in equities.
Do not overlook the Afghan peace deal and the election. Trump has done what nobody else was able to do. While nobody trusts the Taliban to comply, at least this is a chance to end the war and bring an end to the US involvement, and an end to the financial expenditure. We tried, but the Afghans and Taliban seem to want to remain goat herders and warriors, and so let them kill each other. There is little more that we can do for them. They need to do for themselves, or keep killing each other. Similarly, let the Turks and Syrians kill each other. This is going to be a real mess now. They seem to be doing a good job of killing each other with no American troops involved. It is the same in Palestine and Gaza. They have a chance to stop the killing and poverty, or to keep their people in desperate conditions and a low standard of living. Their choice. They likely will choose wrong again. It does seem that the Saudis and UAE and other Arabs get it, but the Palestinian leaders are so corrupt they will never want to reverse how they act. It is no different than other corrupt governments like Mexico and Venezuela, where the entrenched elite steal the money and everyone else remains in poverty. It never changes
By May you will look back and say...why didn’t I stay in or go back into the market back in early March.
WTF is wrong with Catholics? Everytime someone on my Italian side of my family dies, it's a bunch of goofy traditions. Stand up, sit down, kneel. Spin 2 time face cardinal north. I'm glad I was raised Methodist, god loves you now get out. Don't have to worry about the plague if you're protestant![]()
What's Happening: Cruise ship tests, Prisons sanitized
In California, the first tests of people on a cruise ship found 21 have the new coronavirusabcnews.go.com
At least one person at the Vatican has tested positive for the virus. It doesn't seem clear whether said person is a tourist or a higher-up clergy member. Given that Vatican City is sort of its own independent governing body w/ the pope as a monarch, I wonder how much control Italy has over it in terms of enforcing public health protocols. Because I'm almost completely confident that many, many people there have contracted it (perhaps it's even where it started), and here's why:
If you've ever been to Vatican City (or Rome in general tbf) you'd know that it's a shithole, packed with sweaty tourists from around the world and mafia scam artists in close quarters preying on them. You also get weird Catholic traditions of touching certain statues. I wouldn't be surprised if some similar stupid touristy thing like that is what caused the outbreak to begin with. I remember kissing a statue of St. Peter's foot when I was kid, in a never-ending line of other people kissing it. The foot has gone under the process of erosion by all the people kissing/touching it continuously all day, for years on end.
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Things may have changed over the years since this was under a different pope, but when we went to mass at St. Peter's Basilika, the priest urged everyone to receive the Eucharist by tongue (the dude's wrinkly thumb touched my tongue), and of course everyone drinks wine from like 3 cups shared w the entire community. Granted, the priest ended up angrily telling people off after communion because there were apparently a lot of people who didn't understand German and tried to take the Eucharist by hand lol.
Elsewhere in Rome, where many people who travel for the Vatican also sightsee around, there's also this "mouth of truth" statue thing that tourists put their hands in one by one for pictures. Not as high traffic as the sacred foot, but it still builds up a line.
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And ofc the Trevi fountain is filled with pickup artists. Across the city, homeless people are absolutely fucking everywhere begging for money & picking pockets. Crazy how Vatican City was until now by some "miracle" () spared from infection.
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Oh yeah, and old news, but Pope Francis has a cold
I wonder how many hands he shakes/babies he kisses on an avg day.
The reported numbers are probably not correct imo, given f/e Russia's relationship with China (it's their largest trading partner by far) and then Russia's relationship with Eastern Europe. And some slavic countries even have a large population of Chinese people and have many different cultures existing together, perhaps not even speaking the same language. Given the timing to Chinese New Year, the delayed response to recognize the virus from China and the fact that the epicenter of the outbreak in China was a major transport hub, you can pretty much guarantee they've got the WuFlu. But Eastern Europe is interesting in that unlike authoritarian Asian countries, the people know they're constantly lied to and sort of resign themselves to it. So the people and the government have a very weird relationship with each other where they manufacture their own reality, all the while being ever-aware of the fact that it's manufactured. This is a topic that's super interesting to me but I've written walls of text about it on this site already in the past, so at risk of sperging out on a tangent, if you want to know more I recommend starting by reading a bit about Vladislav Surkov. From what we've seen so far, trying to hide outbreaks doesn't appear to be an effective strategy, but given that people know that they're frequently lied to, hopefully they take precautions regardless of what leaders are saying.
A hospital near me had boxes of N95s mysteriously go missing from central supply and that door is locked with a keypad. Only nurses and EVS know the code, so...