Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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Underestimated Nutria said:
Feel bad for my sister, a lot of whose study strategies (memorization) won't pay off in the same manner with upcoming (let's face it, open book) online exams.

Here's my question for those who know better: she's got a statistics assignment that's open ended enough that any reasonably comprehensive data set would allow her to demonstrate knowledge of the required skills. Something pertaining to COVID 19 would be pretty cool, could anyone point me in the right direction?
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Extrapolating Iranian/Italian deaths to find China's real death number.
 
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China to Rerelease 'Avengers' Franchise, 'Avatar' to Boost Reopening Cinemas

I'm pretty sure Wave 2 is incoming sooner than we think.
"[...]approximately 600 to 700 cinemas have reopened[...]"

Disney’s ‘Avengers’ Series, ‘Coco,’ ‘Call of the Wild’ Join China’s Post-Coronavirus Lineup
This one also posts more movies in the lineup, including A Dog's Journey/Life. Not sure how to feel about that last one, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets banned like Animal Farm because it also posts the dog's thoughts throughout the movie unless I confused it with another 'sentient' dog movie.
 
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Ad Lib Moaning said:
China to Rerelease 'Avengers' Franchise, 'Avatar' to Boost Reopening Cinemas

I'm pretty sure Wave 2 is incoming sooner than we think.
"[...]approximately 600 to 700 cinemas have reopened[...]"

Disney’s ‘Avengers’ Series, ‘Coco,’ ‘Call of the Wild’ Join China’s Post-Coronavirus Lineup
This one also posts more movies in the lineup, including A Dog's Journey/Life. Not sure how to feel about that last one, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets banned like Animal Farm because it also posts the dog's thoughts throughout the movie unless I confused it with another 'sentient' dog movie.
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I don't think this is what Disney had in mind for "Phase Four"...
 
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A friend of mine had to go to the ER the other day with a non-covid 19 related issue. In our Midwest USA city with a population of over 800,000, the hospital was the exact opposite of crowded. While he waited to be seen, one other patient came in. That's it. A trip that he expected to take at least 6 hours took two, and that included waiting for scan results. Not sure what that means in the grand scheme of things, but it was an eyewitness observation.
 
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DNA_JACKED said:
Let me temper your fears here: Roughly 2% of coronavirus patients need hospitalization for the disease. At 50,000 a day, that would be 2.5 million infections per day. New york would run out of people at 3 days, assuming EVERYONE in the city got it at the same time.
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Isn't your math off? I thought it was 2% deaths, 20% hospitalization. Thus, at 50,000 a day, it would only be 250k infections. We're set to hit that by... First or second week of April, if the curve doesn't slow down?

The bigger concern is that hospitalization takes 4+ weeks from early reports. So the hospitals will fill up LONG before the 250k daily infections hits.

It's HK-47 said:
View attachment 1202533

After a certain point it really feels like New York City did practically nothing to protect itself from any of this.
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What's really funny is they now want priority over the entire country for medical supplies, treatment, etc, and are having a fucking tantrum that the country isn't putting New York's needs first.

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www.nytimes.com

Opinion | Trump to New York: Drop Dead

Untold thousands will likely die, absent federal intervention. And it needs to happen this instant. Why won’t the president help?
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
archive.vn

Opinion | Trump to New York: Drop Dead - The New York Times

archived 25 Mar 2020 03:47:12 UTC
archive.vn archive.vn

Sorry faggots, the farmers in "flyover country" as you guys oh so love to dismissively say take priority over a bunch of assholes in an asshole + Wu Flu stew. If we don't get the farmlands back up and running in a few weeks, we're gonna suddenly need a shitload of food we won't have.
 
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737 MAX Stan Account said:
This fiasco has made me think about something: were politicians always this incredibly stupid, or does obtaining political power cause you to transform into an idiot?
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To get elected you have to appeal to the lowest common denominator, only someone inclined to be a scam artist already would be willing to bullshit enough to compete
 
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Slap47 said:
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To be fair, the boomers have been forcing people to work sick for decades. Can't really blame people for going in sick when the status quo has been threats for calling in sick.

Your BiL would have likely been threatening them if they had tried to call in sick.
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Lets compromise. We can release the prisoners... into a mass grave, or some third world shithole that can hold them for a while. Alaska or Hawaii, maybe.

I ain't interested in dying because Tyrone got released from jail mid-pandemic by some communist shit living in a gated community with armed guards upstate, and his prep strategy is to just break into houses and steal food until this is all over. Fuck that. Lets kill the post-apocalyptic warlords while we still can, thanks.
 
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That's interesting. Sean Davis is doing a dive into the prediction models that Covid Act Now was pushing on local governments and officials, and none of the data is lining up. All of the states where they were anticipating that we'd be up in the several hundreds or thousands by this date are still overwhelmingly in the double digits. For New York they're off by more than 10,000 cases.
 
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It's HK-47 said:
View attachment 1202640

That's interesting. Sean Davis is doing a dive into the prediction models that Covid Act Now was pushing on local governments and officials, and none of the data is lining up. All of the states where they were anticipating that we'd be up in the several hundreds or thousands by this date are still overwhelmingly in the double digits. For New York they're off by more than 10,000 cases.
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... isn't that literally what the quarantines and shelter-in-place tactics was meant to do? Cause less infections / deaths?
 
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HTTP Error 404 said:
... isn't that literally what the quarantines and shelter-in-place tactics was meant to do? Cause less infections / deaths?
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The numbers all factored that in and they're showing what was 'projected' without any measures, with social distancing, and with social distancing + shelter in place. It looks like their numbers are still through the roof even with those taken into account.
 
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More detailed data from Ohio: https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/

Confirmed cases: 704
ICU: 75
Hospitalizations total: 182
Deaths: 10
Age range: <1-94 years
Median age: 51
47% males
53% females

What is not being reported: the number of negative cases or total cases tested. What is known is that Ohio is still lagging FAR behind on testing, and its being speculated by the media that the lack of negative testing is being pushed as an excuse to cover up how poorly they are scaling testing.

HTTP Error 404 said:
Isn't your math off? I thought it was 2% deaths, 20% hospitalization. Thus, at 50,000 a day, it would only be 250k infections. We're set to hit that by... First or second week of April, if the curve doesn't slow down?

The bigger concern is that hospitalization takes 4+ weeks from early reports. So the hospitals will fill up LONG before the 250k daily infections hits.
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No, the 20% hospitalizations is based on CURRENT known cases. Only those in serious or critical condition are being tested, and even then not all are tested and those that are are waiting days for results. If you are a moderate case that needs oxygen but isnt running a fever or on a ventilator, odds are against you being tested for ChineseAIDS.

I posted a source yesterday in this thread that speculated that the best tested US states are catching, at most, 15% of all cases. And hospitalized patients are still getting testing preference. So we have absolutely 0 idea how many cases are actually out there, or how many of those cases will evolve to the point of needing hospitalization.

Take ohio's numbers posted today. 182 out of 704 known cases have been hospitalized. thats 25%! But, the same authorities said they believed that up to 100,000 were already infected, and that was 10 days ago. Lets say that today the actual infection rate was actually only 50,000 total people. That would mean that only 0.3% of ChinkAIDS were requiring hospitalizations at this moment, way below estimations. At the 100K originally thought that would push the hospitalization rate to 0.15%.

The 2% hospitalization rate is based on countries with far more reliable testing then America has. Without reliable testing, we can only guess the current hospitalization rate, and using the worst possible figures the hospitalization rate is way lower then 20%, using the best numbers the rate is a rounding error. Even despite the surge of NY cases most hospitals there are only talking of a minor uptick in traffic, a single hospital is getting slammed in the state if this forum is to be believed.
 
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It's HK-47 said:
The numbers all factored that in and they're showing what was 'projected' without any measures, with social distancing, and with social distancing + shelter in place. It looks like their numbers are still through the roof even with those taken into account.
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Imperial College was somewhat the same, with 500,000 deaths first predicted if nothing was done, this dropped to 250,000 with asking people to space out first to 1m, then 2m when it was found 1m was ineffective.

Now with lockdown and everything else they're calling 20,000 deaths and even that is likely to be overhyping.

Just remember, it's worse than Swine Flu. It was also feared to be a large scale killer but herd immunity was a strategy taken for that. Swine Flu killed about 140 from an estimate of half a million.

The UK's already at 422.
 
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