- Joined
- Jul 18, 2017
IMO, it could go either way depending on how Trump handles the whole coronavirus issue in the following weeks. Trump's path to reelection could literally become a gold-plated moving walkway if normalcy is quickly restored and the death count kept relatively low, or it might become considerably bumpier if things last too long. I think he should have shut up about the stock market long ago, since the stock market =/= the economy.
Twitter is a poor indicator of the general mood of ultranormie society (only 20% of all adults are on Twitter), and legacy media still has an oversized influence, unfortunately.
Biden's townhalls are unconvincing, but his greatest virtue is that he offers a return to a boring Obama-era 'Dignified Presidentialness'. Basically promising a respite from all the craziness of the last four years. Legacy media will cover for him, but Trump can make his largest impact by debates and using his accumulated warchest in Ad/GOTV drives (Bloomberg will likely cover for Biden).
Biden's presidency will likely be driven from the back seat by the State Department and the VP, and he's likely China's preferred candidate (since they were in cahoots with the Obama presidency).
Bernie can do his best by staying on like a tick and making the Democrats waste time settling the candidacy.
Pretty much this. Trumps first term has been pretty much easy mode. Historical levels of international stability, good economic growth world wide, and what few landmines were in his way he either studiously refused to even take up or in the case of the Iranian general managed to pull off a double backflip over. Corona-chan is the first real test of his Presidency, and its a doozy. This is the kind of crisis that can break ANY Presidency. referring to it as a war time situation is pretty accurate tbqh. If he manages to pull a hat trick on this the Democrats won't win, not even if they manage to reanimate the corspse of JFK and put Zombie Hoover in charge of his opposition research. If he doesn't pull it off, well we are all fucked anyway. The Stakes are pretty much that high. Its been a long time since we've had a crisis where the buy in is literally the future of the country, but this one is it I fear.