Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[Non-Expert!]

1465 cases times 6898 equals 10,105,570.
It's not 1 of 7,000 tests positive, it's 1 confirmed infected per 6,898 people in the county.

Well that sucks.

 

[Computer Boy]

So guys, I have a question since this shitty thread is way too fast.

Is it getting worse or is it getting better?

Nigga, are you too fucking stupid to look shit up? Why do you have ask us? Are niggers this fucking dependent on white people?

 

[Irrelevant]

Something is clearly up with this story. The family claimed COVID but the medics disagree. The Guardian wrote about it and then pulled the article which makes me think someone has made a legal threat to them.

As far as the differences between men and women it seems like there might be some signs that the patients who need ventilators are disproportionately male.

https://archive.vn/DssEw
https://web.archive.org/web/20200327000254/https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/26/men-are-getting-sicker-dying-more-often-covid-19-spain-data-shows/ The Washington post blocks archive.org with a 'we've noticed you're blocking ads modal dialog'. Just for that piece of fuckery I'm not linking to you.



So in Spain, it's about 65:35 male to female. A significant discrepancy.

The gender difference with corona would be because it attacks the actual O2 pickup so would appear on SpO2. Asthma is a restriction of the airways not the receptors so as long as you can still brute force air into your lungs you can survive. It's just very tiring and once you're too tired you die quickly which is how people go to bed fine and wake up dead.

 

[Computer Boy]

Babies aren't immune

 

[Not Really Here]

Well that sucks.

Approx. 2,100 people per square mile, so around .3 confirmed infected per square mile.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

@Otterly

This of interest to you? Collation of figures for 775 Covid patients in England and Wales suggests roughly half of those who were admitted to ICU died. Is this more or less what other countries were reporting?

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b

eta: there is some data at Fig 5 about BMI on admission for those interested in data around how obesity may affect Covid outcome

Picking through it, it's interesting.

The younger people needing some care drags the average age down to about 61.

The high rate of death for people over 70+ (73%) then drags the death rate up quite considerably.

 

[Inkleborque]

There's video of that. Things are bad, if even the sight of soldiers carrying rifles can't persuade the people to stay in homes. Or they just can't grasp the concept of lockdown. If africans can't understand science of viruses, maybe authorities should just say that withcraft or some black magic happened there. Social distancing is unheard of, obviously.

South African cities and rural towns are surrounded by informal settlements and squatter camps. Alexandra, featured on the Sky News clip, is 2 blocks away from the hub of Sandton. News from ground level: white/Indian neighbourhoods are self isolating with little or no movement whilst the rest regard the virus as a hoax or "not that serious". The South African Defence Force and police are unable to enforce the lockdown and are non-existent in rural areas.

Will update if the country starts burning.

Edit: Spelling 'cause it's late and I'm an idjit.

 

[The Pink Panther]

Nigga, are you too fucking stupid to look shit up? Why do you have ask us? Are niggas this fucking dependent on white people?

I'm just asking for your guy's perspective...that's all.

I'm not reliant on whitey. I've done my research. I know what I know to be true.

 

[CeleryStalks]

Michigan, USA

(Nothing very important today, mostly follow-ups of old stories)

Michigan police assure the public that they will continue to protect us during the pandemic by having officers from less-affected departments come and help out more-affected ones. Many places will be scaling back law enforcement of minor crimes, however.
Of the City of Detroit's 2200-some officers, 468 [yes, 468. The headline below is outdated] are quarantined or self-quarantined, and 39 others have tested positive.

Michigan police say they’re ready for possible staffing shortages due to coronavirus outbreak

Nearly 400 Detroit police officers, 20% of the 2,200-officer force, are at home under coronavirus quarantine.

www.mlive.com

(archive)
Another article on the reduction of police enforcement, this time from Flint (of lead-in-the-water fame)
(article) (archive)

Driver's Education is now being offered online! (not the practical part, of course, but the classroom instruction).

Driver education courses go online for first time in Michigan amid 'stay at home' order

Driver education instructors can hold Segment 1 and Segment 2 instruction in a virtual classroom.

www.freep.com

(archive)

In other news, the Great Lakes are the highest they've been in a century, washing away public and private shore-front land; flooding, eroding, and otherwise ruining beaches and other tourist attractions; and delaying the opening of the St. Lawrence Seaway from March 20 to April 1. All of which will further compound the economic woes of the region.
(article on Michigan - archive)
(article on the whole lake system - archive)
(old article on the St. Lawrence delay - archive)

Spoiler: Michigan Recap

SHUTDOWNS
Shelter-in-place order and shutdown of everything non-essential (groceries, gas stations, pharmacies, the usual) from Tuesday March 24 to Monday April 13. (archive) (executive order saved on KF)
Schools will likely not re-open this year (archive)
The Big Three Auto manufacturers (Ford, GM, Chrysler) are closing all factories in the USA, putting well over 150,000 workers out of work, until "at least April." This figure does not include workers at supplier factories, which will also be obliged to close. (archive) (archive) They will be making a small number of parts for emergency vehicles, and GM will be helping Ventec, a company that makes ventilators (archive - ventilators). Ford will be helping 3M and GE Healthcare to make respirators and ventilators (archive).

FREE STUFF!
Free bus rides in Detroit after drivers' strike (archive- strike) (archive - free fares)
Free access to state parks (archive)
Evictions suspended while the state of emergency lasts (archive)
State prisoners are being provided two free phone calls and two free emails a week, by the 3rd party vendors thereof (archive)
Flint is turning water back on for 140 households (archive)

FREEDOM!
Semi-trucks carrying essential supplies can ignore seasonal road weight limits (archive)
Distilleries can make hand sanitizer without a permit (archive)
The city of Detroit is expediting the release of prisoners onto tether monitoring (archive)
Pharmacists may prescribe 60 days of emergency medication and may substitute drugs without physicians approval in event of shortages (archive).
Driver's Ed (the classroom portion) is now available online. (archive)

BAD SIGNS
24 prisoners and 9 staff infected at numerous facilities. (archive) (archive)
Six confirmed cases among patients and staff in Michigan psychiatric hospitals. (archive)
One confirmed case at homeless shelter in Flint (of lead-plumbing fame) (archive)
Detroit hospitals nearing capacity, with almost 450 Wuflu patients. (archive) (archive)
Detroit hospitals prepare triage plans (archive on KF)
Detroit-area nurse makes a video (archive)
Big Brother is watching, and he approves. Massive phone-tracking project reveals Michigan travel down by 45%, compared to 40% nation-wide (archive).

LAW AND ORDER
Lansing (the capitol) police are not physically responding to minor crimes such as larceny, property damage, and break-ins to unoccupied buildings, including garages. Other police are adopting similar policies (archive) (archive), expediting the release of prisoners, etc. (archive - Flint)
39 Detroit police officers and at least 1 firefighter tested positive and over 450 officers and 70 staff are quarantined (the Detroit Police Dept. has about 2,200 officers) (archive) (archive) (archive) Three Michigan officers and police staff dead, all in the Detroit area. (archive) (archive) (archive)
Despite this, 911 calls are down 15-20% in Detroit, and Mayor Mike Duggan (D) estimates actual crime has dropped even more (archive).
Two Kalamazoo police tested positive (archive, archive).
Breaking the lockdown is a misdemeanor, punishable by $500 fines and 90 days jail time. Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) has stated there will not be a "ramp up" of police enforcement (archive). The attorney general has left it to local law enforcement to close businesses, as her hands are full with price-gougers and con artists (archive). Local law enforcement is floundering and we are essentially working on an honor system (archive - Kalamazoo) (archive - Ann Arbor)

DEATH TOLL
Michigan deaths: 20-some since yesterday (down by 10), 111 total, mostly in and around Detroit, but starting to spread out (archive), plus one Ann Arbor man allegedly killed by his roommate in a Corona-related dispute (archive). The suspect has been released from custody while the investigation continues (archive).

 

[Gustav Schuchardt]

Well that sucks.

It's worth pointing out that up to now there has been a shortage of tests. That should mean that only people suspected of being infected will get tested, which means that the percentage of people testing positive should exceed the percentage of the population positive. Here's the CA test record

https://covidtracking.com/data/#CA

https://web.archive.org/web/20200328063611/https://covidtracking.com/data/

So they've got a positive rate of 3879/21259 or about 18%. That probably doesn't mean 18% of the population have it because that's not a random sample - it's made up of people who are likely to have it. The infection rate in the general population may well be lower, but determining how much lower is impossible.

Incidentally, if you're locking yourself down this is good news. If a lot of people get it and recover, you'll get herd immunity in the population which means you won't catch it when you emerge from your bunker wearing your gas mask and goggles in two weeks' times.

 

[Gog & Magog]

Stole this from someone on twitter.

 

[Otterly]

@Otterly

This of interest to you? Collation of figures for 775 Covid patients in England and Wales suggests roughly half of those who were admitted to ICU died. Is this more or less what other countries were reporting?

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b

eta: there is some data at Fig 5 about BMI on admission for those interested in data around how obesity may affect Covid outcome

Thank you, that is interesting. I suspect that the BMI distribution almost mirrors that in the general population with a slight over representation. We are a bunch of fat bastards, although still not as fat as over the pond. You don’t often see deathfats in the UK, even if most people are overweight.
50% Survival in ICU is the rate in Italy too. If you need a vent you’re in a bad way. What is notable is that the mean duration of stay in ICU is 6 days - in Italy it’s been I think 15. That plus the fact it’s 70-80 dead and recovered each and 600 plus still in ICU means that They’re still in an early stage of treating. As it goes on expect to see that stay lengthen.

 

[Stoneheart]

Meanwhile Germany is giving a shit ton of money to artists. Not a very logical move. A starving painter can't do much damage than overworking nurses and doctors.

thats fake news. the amount going to artists is pretty low. the 50 billion is for all small businesses. also art is alot more important in germany.

 

[Non-Expert!]

It's worth pointing out that up to now there has been a shortage of tests. That should mean that only people suspected of being infected will get tested, which means that the percentage of people testing positive should exceed the percentage of the population positive. Here's the CA test record

https://covidtracking.com/data/#CA

https://web.archive.org/web/20200328063611/https://covidtracking.com/data/

View attachment 1206219

So they've got a positive rate of 3879/21259 or about 18%. That probably doesn't mean 18% of the population have it because that's not a random sample - it's made up of people who are likely to have it. The infection rate in the general population may well be lower, but determining how much lower is impossible.

Incidentally, if you're locking yourself down this is good news. If a lot of people get it and recover, you'll get herd immunity in the population which means you won't catch it when you emerge from your bunker wearing your gas mask and goggles.

Yeah I just posted an interview with an expert on how this is going to pan out and it seems like we are all very "fucked."

As I see it, the difference between LA County, NYC and "other places" is simply a matter of scale. I would be amazed if less-densely populated communities were well-equipped to deal with it, when critically ill patients roll into their ER's and ICU'S or whatever.

And if a smaller community is hit particularly hard, what resources do they have? The advantage to being in a large metropolis, is even it resources seem tighter, per capita, at least they are in arm's reach in some way shape or form.

See, in LA, if you leave your doorstep, and walk for a couple of miles, you might collide with a medical center. It isn't that way everywhere. Some places if you walk in any direction, all you will hit is parks, restaurants, a florist and a hair salon.

Just my opinion. Hopefully it is wrong.

 

[Gustav Schuchardt]

50% Survival in ICU is the rate in Italy too. If you need a vent you’re in a bad way. What is notable is that the mean duration of stay in ICU is 6 days - in Italy it’s been I think 15. That plus the fact it’s 70-80 dead and recovered each and 600 plus still in ICU means that They’re still in an early stage of treating. As it goes on expect to see that stay lengthen.

This site is reporting worse 'case outcome' rates, about 85%:15: death:recover.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
https://archive.vn/Anqqd
https://web.archive.org/web/20200328194403/https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Italy seems to be nearer 50:50. In fact the recovery rate is above 50 at 54.52%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
https://web.archive.org/web/20200328182553/https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

 

[JosephStalin]

Have a couple of interesting stories.

Has the U.S.-China Cold War Now Begun? | RealClearPolitics

Among the biggest victims of the coronavirus pandemic is the fiction of amicable U.S.-China relations. Those ties have been worsening for years, even before President Trump decided to call out...

www.realclearpolitics.com

Great article.

Looking back at Chinese-US history, the cold war started a long time ago.

Here's the roots. The Chinese character meaning "China" is the one for "middle". There are two characters, but the second character means "country".

The Chinese believe, and always have believed, that China is the center of the world and anyone who isn't Chinese is a barbarian.

The Chinese have a pronounced inferiority complex. They look back at the Opium Wars, the Boxer Rebellion, the treaty ports, and fighting the Japanese from 1931 on, plus likely other things, as occasions where technically-superior foreigners put China over a barrel. The Chinese saw a change during the Korean War, when the People's Liberation Army stopped the Allied advance to the Yalu River and drove the Allies past Seoul before being stopped themselves and then pushed back to the present Korean DMZ.

They also were treated in a condescending manner by the Soviets, resulting in the Sino-Soviet split during the 60's. This threatened to become a hot war in 1969 over disputed islands in the Ussuri River.

China has never forgotten any of this. They have determined to do all they can to turn the tables and get as much of the rest of the world as possible over a barrel.

They've come much closer than some realize to doing that. We got lucky with this virus. Everyone now sees the folly of the long supply chain and putting so many manufacturing/supply eggs in the Chinese basket. Believe you're going to see more and more foreign companies leave or greatly reduce their dependence on China. Going to see more companies looking at Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Mexico, or bringing certain manufacturing back to the USA. President Trump gets it. That's why he's taken actions to reduce China's near-stranglehold on many medications/medical supplies.

Far as this virus goes, Emperor Xi has been shown to have no clothes. The CCP has been proven to be a bunch of liars. All you need to do is look on YouTube, Twitter, and Vimeo. Yesterday was treated to the sight of police from two different Chinese cities fighting each other. That sure isn't a sign of a country where everything is under control, just like re-closing all Chinese movie theaters. This has also dealt a major blow to China's dream of the yuan becoming a world reserve currency. Not a chance now, I'd say.

This new Cold War's been going on for years and will likely go on for more years. We have certain advantages. Produce all our own food and energy. Our exports make up less than 20% of our GDP. People bitch about the deficit and the national debt, but the deficit and national debt are denominated in our own money.

The Chinese have a real problem here. They have several trillion dollars worth of various US Government paper. You know the old saying, "If I owe you a hundred dollars, I have a problem. If I owe you a million dollars, you have a problem." While it's most unlikely, the Chinese must be terrified we'll print money to pay off our national debt, or even worse, just mint some trillion-dollar coins to redeem all debt held by China. Chinese own certain properties and businesses here in the USA. The USA pretty much has the rule of law. China doesn't. You don't think some smart people in Beijing aren't worried we won't nationalize all their holdings here, like the Chinese have done in their own country?

Again, President Trump gets it.

If I was President Trump I would direct that no Chinese students' visas for study in the USA be renewed. When the school year is over, out they go, whether they are in high school or medical school. Many "students" are actually Chinese military/government operatives sent here as spies. Sadly, seems like all most US schools care about are those tuitions being paid by the Chinese. Reminds me of a quotation from Marx, I think. "The capitalists will sell us the rope to hang themselves."

What can we do? First, boycott Chinese goods to the greatest extent possible. Every dollar going over to China benefits a government that is an enemy, who would like to see our country broken. Second, do not sponsor any Chinese students coming here for school. Keep the spies out.

Think I'm being extreme? No, I just know my history.



And one on how the media misleads everyone on ChiCom Flu case numbers.

https://pjmedia.com/trending/what-t...t-the-united-states-coronavirus-case-numbers/

 

[Barnard]

Welp, almost 250 new cases and two new deaths here in Poland. Over 100 of the new cases come from a single region, most of them (60?) apparently related to that nursing home @No_one mentioned in an earlier post. So that somewhat explains the spike and I believe tomorrow's numbers are actually going to be lower, but we still have to brace for some rough times. The people in that nursing home... Imagine being mentally disabled and spending most of your life in a glorified kindergarten, only to suffocate because some people on the other side of the world eat bat dick. I still hope they can make it though. They're not all impoverished octogenarians waiting to die.

I’m also asthmatic and I know I should take the steroids but I dont like them.

Wait, you're an asthmatic who self-medicates a possible corona case and you're more or less OK? No oxygen bottles or mechanical ventilation involved?

 

[Super-Chevy454]

Lefties still deny the Chinese origins of Corona-chan. One poster on Unz.com posted a link to a conspiracy theory by calling it the Chosen People flu.

Edit: I wonder how lefties and others SJWs will react to this?

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Germany Has Rolled Out a Staggering €50 Billion Aid Package For Small Businesses That Boosts Artists and Galleries—and Puts Other Countries to Shame

archive
Meanwhile Germany is giving a shit ton of money to artists. Not a very logical move. A starving painter can't do much damage than overworking nurses and doctors.

A starving painter can't do much damage

A starving painter can't do much damage

A starving painter can't do much damage

You, ah. You sure about that one?

 

[mindlessobserver]

Companies have probably been allowed to drop their QC standard to meet order quotas. Looser tolerance for underweight/overweight, minor variations in quality (colour, taste or texture). Suppliers, producers and regulatory oversight agencies have to agree on this AFAIK. It's a way to increase productivity and reduce waste at the production end. You would be amazed at some of the things producers have to either rework, repack, or flat out waste.

Also companies might be working with skeleton crews and/or rotating shift days. Where you normally might have 3 workers and a robotic loading system, factories may be down to 1 with the robotics cranked to full. This hopefully will put a full stop to the corporate "If you can make it to the phone, you can make it to work." attitude. Forever.

People with weakened immune systems or other maladies want to work too, asshole. Just because you only get the sniffles for 2 days doesn't mean that someone you work with or their family member won't be put into the hospital.

Nobody is on the roads. The transportation industry is probably saving over an hour or more on average on deliveries. This may not seem like much but applied nationally? Hoo boy. This is a really good time to be a trucker.