Herd immunity would easily overwhelm the healthcare system. If everyone gets the virus all at once, then the likelihood of a very large death toll is really high. Not necessarily because of the virus itself, but because far less people would be able to receive the proper treatment, as the hospitals would be severely overcrowded. We also need to take into consideration of all of the other medical emergencies that people still go through, like heart attacks, strokes, accidents, etc. Herd immunity would lead to a lot of COVID-19-related deaths along with collateral damage full of sick people with non-COVID-19-related problems. With herd immunity, we're talking about the likelihood of a devastating amount of deaths around the globe-- we're talking in the
tens of millions, easily.
If you slow down the spread of the virus, though, then that gives the hospitals more capability to treat more people if they're coming down with the virus one at a time instead of all at once. More patients would receive the treatment they needed, thus lowering the death toll considerably.
That said, the whole concept of nationwide lockdowns and mandated quarantines aren't the greatest method either. You need some people to catch the virus to start building an immunity. If everyone succumbed to the fully draconian measures ... Well, firstly, it wouldn't work because you just can't keep
everybody fully isolated and protected (especially in densely populated areas like New York City), and secondly, the draconian measures wouldn't allow enough of the population to develop an immunity or antibodies (so a proper vaccine would be really difficult to make in a timely fashion at that point). Every time a mandated quarantine would be over, the outbreaks would have many more phases and many more spikes in cases, and so we'd be getting back to square one multiple times, I think. Just like herd immunity, draconian measures aren't the answer either, in my opinion.
Promoting and encouraging self-quarantine and social distancing for those who can stay home, though? Promoting self-quarantine for those most vulnerable? Yes, I think that this is the best, least devastating solution. It slows down the progression of the virus considerably while also allowing a good chunk of the (hopefully low risk) people to be exposed to it, thus eventually creating antibodies and then a vaccine in a timely fashion. This is not only the least deadly option, but also probably the fastest, as it actually gives doctors the
time and
resources to develop a vaccine in the quickest amount of time possible.
The Washington Post published an article that explained things pretty well, I think. It came out almost a month ago (and I know I've posted it here already, but why not share the link again since the last time I posted it was several hundred pages ago).
In Australia, the PM (well I'm not sure it's his plan, but his "experts" plans - more on them later)'s plan is to lock down Australia, lock down every state, lock down every person "6 months or longer" or until vaccine is found.
As of the other day, we freed up the private sector's hospital beds. So we're at 7500 ICU beds with 4000 extra available. Maybe something like an additional 50k normal hospital beds added.
We have 50 people in ICU. 50. And we've been locked down for 2 weeks, cases are minimal, 24 deaths nationwide.
Testing more per capita than any other nation. Positive results come back at about a 1.5% rate atm.
Community transmission is at about 20-26 cases per day and a lot of that is "community transmission" because we have a lot of backpackers who are lying about their movements and are infecting themselves on purpose.
We have had this virus in our country since Jan 26. So we've had it a long time.
So, even if we hit "peak", we'd have enough ventilators and ICU beds for that peak. When you get intubated or on ECMO, you're toast anyway. Your bed will free up asap as soon as you die. Harsh, but true.
However, all of this overabundance of caution is having a terrible knock on effect.
Massive unemployment, police getting abused and already sick to death of having to enforce these insane laws, businesses shuttering. People are already sick of it. We've more than flattened the curve - we've sat on it and punched it in the face.
So, the plan - the plan from the experts is quote "If I could freeze everyone in place so that they cannot move for the next 2 weeks and everyone is perfectly 6 feet apart, I'd be happy". - One of the leading "experts".
Now, to counter this bullshit, other leading experts are being ignored. I have a relative who works in infectious disease research who is trying to scream from the rooftops about what's actually going on.
Her research lab is shut down. They were working on serology tests. She's been told go home, do paperwork. We'll let you know.
They've shut REGULAR pathology labs down. If you have cancer, well, you're shit out of luck. Heart disease? Ditto.
Nothing but emergency hospital admissions overflow. Which is odd. Because there's no overflow.
A lot of GPs are mad as hell, because what are they supposed to do? Shutter? I asked my friend who is a GP what she will do and she's like it's ridiculous, they won't even take cancer screening paths. Nothing.
They shut down elective surgery (elective surgery means everything, everything that isn't a do it now emergency, so it's not so elective.) Dentistry. 3 months at LEAST.
That makes no sense. It's bracing for an impact that's not coming.
Other infectious disease experts have been told basically "Shut up, what would you know", whilst the left leaning Grattan Institute is being pushed to the forefront. Prof Raina MacIntyre of the UNSW seems to be getting quite the say and she's involved with the Grattan Institute and the left leaning website the conversation.
Guess who's a massive investor in the UNSW? Tiny eyes and a tiny surprise.
China.
Raina's idea is complete lockdown, 6-8 weeks, stay in your houses. Do not leave.
Except, that's not really her plan. It's more "until a vaccine is found". So Australia is shut off until a vaccine is found.
Hospitals will sit empty because we're all locked in our houses. Elective surgeries will not happen. Cancer treatments are already being turned away.
So you get the level to zero and you sit in your house til you get a vaccine?
But what about the treatments - Antiviral, Antibody, BCG or HC treatments? Not much is mentioned about them in Australia. In fact, most virologists are against it, because they hate Trump. That's literally their reason.
I interviewed one doctor today who's opinion is that Australians should be punished and taught that when told to jump, they should ask how high - even if there's no medical benefit to it. It was such an insane conversation.
Add to this, they're spazzing about "muh flu season". There won't BE a flu season if everyone is on lockdown like this and there is NOTHING whatsoever, at all, anywhere to suggest that hot weather or cold weather makes an impact. At all.
The Philippines are being hard hit atm and they're having 30+ days.
So, basically, lockdowns/social distancing have "some" effect, but it seems to be a massive, massive cost. It's effectively putting numbers on paper that looks nice, but refusing to acknowledge the higher cost economically, socially and medically to everyone else.
Bad tactics, but some people like Raina, have made motives.
Oh, I forgot to add. Social distancing works if it means shutting businesses or fining tradies eating kebabs - but guess what? Over Easter, don't worry so much about that. Go to Church!
Last weekend, The Queensland Gov didn't care about social distancing at all, held their elections and said social distancing doesn't need to be enforced. Made employees sit in cubicles 2 feet apart.
They also gave themselves - gov employees - a pay rise the other day, whilst putting everyone out of work.
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