Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[Gustav Schuchardt]

Incidentally, the whole 'Only old people are going to die, why worry' argument seems to me to be rather unconvincing. Old people include most of your relatives and you'd be sad if even one of them died. Young people include all the glorified bloggers writing listicles for Buzzfeed and absolute horseshit for the Guardian and cunts on Twitter pushing society further down the drain. So the argument boils down to 'Yeah, some of your relatives are going to die and you'll be sad. Don't worry though, the media will still be full of useless people writing content you at best laugh at and at worse ignore!'.

In fact those Twitter cunts have spent the last year saying that if there was another referendum on Brexit, Remain would win due to old people dying.

E.g. from the Indie

Leave voters dying and Remainers reaching voting age means majority will soon oppose Brexit, study finds

Demographic changes mean number of Remain supporters grows by 235,000 each year, while number of Leave backers falls by 260,000

www.independent.co.uk

https://web.archive.org/web/2020020...-yougov-second-referendum-peter-a8541971.html

The analysis found that an extra 235,000 Remain voters join the electorate each year, as 395,000 reach voting age and 160,000 die.

At the same time, the number of Leave supporters falls by 260,000 a year. 320,000 die and just 60,000 reach voting age.

YouGov found that young people who did not vote in the 2016 referendum are particularly supportive of calls for another poll.

Among under-25s who did not vote in 2016 but would be certain to do so in a new referendum, 82 per cent said they would back Remain.

And 75 per cent of people who were too young to vote in 2016 say they want a Final Say vote.

Around 87 per cent of under-25s would now vote to stay the EU.

I'm sure in the US people have made the same argument that as old white people (aka your relatives) die, the country will become more progressive (aka fucked).

 

[RodgerDodger]

I actually don't, so if you have any info to enlighten me with that's cool.

But I do know that paper bags don't take 10-100 years to degrade into micro parts that will last forever and enter our food chain.

The CO2 from transporting them is a contributing factor, yes. However those plastic bags don't just magically teleport to their destination, they go through the same transportation. Maybe a larger amount can be sent however the long term effects from plastic is far worse.


I'm tired of seeing and removing plastic bags caught in trees and shrubs because they aren't disposed of properly.

Edit: I can burn, compost, arts and crafts, and other uses far more for paper bags rather then plastic.

Yeah about that. You might want to look up what paper bags degrade into. And what is released into the soil and environment when they decompose.

 

[Fareal]

Went for a 30 minute walk in Bongland to get some exercise. No mask so MacGyvered one from an old bandana with amusing side effect of looking like I'm about to start a gang war. Sadly this isn't Compton so I didn't peel any caps.

Lots of people out and about because its sunny. No masks, park near me is rammed, people playing frisbee, football, sat around in groups etc. No one gives a shit. Sad

Makes me slightly worried the government is going to get more heavy handed if people don't take this seriously.

Fairly obviously I can only report what I see myself, but there’s a ridiculous amount of lockdown ignoring happening around me in the last week. The weathers broken and people are blatantly sick of their children so habe kicked them out to wander. The teenagers in particular. a bundle of them were “exercising“ around midnight last night passing by my house. I’ve been out fishing the bottles out of my holly hedge this morning

 

[Vecr]

Plastic bag-6 to 8 grams
Paper bag- 55 grams

All about bags (Archive)

I usually use reusable bags, manufacture and transport produces a lot of CO2, but I think it's worth it as I plan to re-use them hundreds of times.

I think going back to plastic bags for a couple of years is not too bad, though.

 

[eternal dog mongler]

HHS once again reminded us that we're not allowed to discriminate based on age or weight or disability.

This is going to be a shitshow.

 

[Absolute Brainlet]

Kazakh update: skipped 2 days, time to effortpost

Назван возможный пик эпидемии COVID-19 в Казахстане

Пик эпидемии в Казахстане наступит в ближайшее время. Так считает ответственный секретарь Министерства здравоохранения Ботагоз Жакселекова,

tengrinews.kz

Peak is expected to come in the next 1-2 weeks.

Чем китайские врачи помогут Казахстану? Онлайн-брифинг

Накануне в Казахстан прибыли врачи из Китая, передает корреспондент Tengrinews.kz. Это ведущие эпидемиологи, пульмонологи и реаниматологи, всего

tengrinews.kz

Chink doctors just arrived. Gee, I sure do wonder if they're gonna be of any help.

Китайские медики оценили действия врачей Нур-Султана

Китайские медики оценили действия врачей Нур-Султана, передает корреспондент Tengrinews.kz.

tengrinews.kz

Well, they rated the Nur-Sultan medics' work as A+. Not that they're in the position to rate anybody, but I suppose it's still nice?
Anyway, they're gonna be here for 15 days. China also sent 5.5 tons of supplies (probably malfunctioning).
General update: 808 cases, 64 recoveries, 10 deaths. Compared to other countries... *cough cough* Russia *cough* Swedenistan *cough cough cough* Western Europe ... we're not doing so bad!

 

[Not Really Here]

I usually use reusable bags, manufacture and transport produces a lot of CO2, but I think it's worth it as I plan to re-use them hundreds of times.

I think going back to plastic bags for a couple of years is not too bad, though.

Last of the bag talk for me-
Think about the resources in washing those bags every time you use them(or they are a breeding ground for all kinds of contaminates).
Also think about the chemical residue from bringing home cleaning products and washing the bags permeating your fresh foods.

 

[Just Some Other Guy]

Went for a 30 minute walk in Bongland to get some exercise. No mask so MacGyvered one from an old bandana with amusing side effect of looking like I'm about to start a gang war. Sadly this isn't Compton so I didn't peel any caps.

Lots of people out and about because its sunny. No masks, park near me is rammed, people playing frisbee, football, sat around in groups etc. No one gives a shit. Sad

Makes me slightly worried the government is going to get more heavy handed if people don't take this seriously.

Took a 4 mile walk with the wife Wednesday when it was 70f and sunny. Lots of people out on boats and fishing. Saw a total of 2 masks the entire time.

It was a little amusing thinking that someone was in a house, looking out through blinds and seething that people were outside. Then running to Facebook to moralsperg.

 

[Quijibo69]

Plastic bag-6 to 8 grams
Paper bag- 55 grams

All about bags (Archive)

Edit: More about bags
View attachment 1223526
Source / Archive

I used to be a bagger ages ago, paper bags suck because takes longer to pack and they rip. Reusable is better.

 

[Without A Gout]

So South Korean doctors are noticing patients that were once considered cured of coronavirus are now dealing with either reinfection or reactivation of the disease.

About 51 patients classed as having been cured in South Korea have tested positive again, the CDC said in a briefing on Monday. Rather than being infected again, the virus may have been reactivated in these people, given they tested positive again shortly after being released from quarantine, said Jeong Eun-kyeong, director-general of the Korean CDC.

“While we are putting more weight on reactivation as the possible cause, we are conducting a comprehensive study on this,” Jeong said. “There have been many cases when a patient during treatment will test negative one day and positive another.”

...

Fear of re-infection in recovered patients is also growing in China, where the virus first emerged last December, after reports that some tested positive again -- and even died from the disease -- after supposedly recovering and leaving hospital. There’s little understanding of why this happens, although some believe that the problem may lie in inconsistencies in test results.

Eric Feigl-Ding on Twitter

“6) Apparently this reactivation / recurrence is increasing daily in S Korea. Increase in recurring #COVID19 case number: 6th April, 2020 : 51 9th April, 2020 : 74 10th April, 2020 : 91 https://t.co/ZR7l3R6U2w”

twitter.com

Hopefully, this is merely due to inaccurate testing, but if this is true, then nothing's opening up for a while to come. Thanks, China.

Bloomberg article archive.

Twitter archive.

 

[Army Burger]

Agreed.

For far too long Italian hospitals have gotten away with this shit. They must be stopped.

They can't keep getting away with this!

 

[Barnard]

Polish update: 380 new cases, 7 deaths, 34 recoveries. Current totals: 5955 cases - 5465 active cases - 181 deaths - 318 recoveries.

Pretty nice. Only seven deaths is the lowest number in ten days. Daily growth is very similar to yesterday's, well below the peak of 475 in sheer numbers and the lowest so far in percentages (+6.8%). Almost 10700 samples were tested, which is decent considering our humble capabilities and 2.5 thousand more than the previous daily best. The percentage of positive results out of all tests done so far has dropped from 5.04% to 4.85% in two days.

 

[EmuWarsVeteran]

I said I'd talk about reception tonight but I doubt I need to wait. On the grounds reporting is fairly unanimous. Which should terrify you because rarely do left and right agree on anything here in spain. And that is that Europe thinks we're fucking idiots and are backstabbing us as always, that what the netherlands has done is a war declaration that should be answered with utmost prejudice, and that the government's fucking retarded if it thinks it can claim this strategy is good.

Spain has mobilized. Spain is motivated. Spain now universaly agrees on something. Be very afraid. Right now the scenario in which britain and russia cut europe in 3 with trade deals is a BEST CASE SCENARIO for the Netherlands. Because it might just be the only way to keep WW3 on the economic side, and we're calling dibs on bombing them if it doesn't.

EDIT, DISCLAIMER: You may think I'm exagerating or going full lolcow. But take into account, the farmers were already protesting against the EU legislation as Corona started, and our scidntists and small businesses have been doing so since before we even officially joined. We already hated the EU with a passion. And this is not the first fucking time they claim to help and only steal from us. They did it during the 2008 crisis too, and the 2012/2013 one. We did not forget how that went. And those are some ugly wounds we bear. And now, the level of vitriol I'm witnessing as social network fills with references to that just as a reminder... I have literally never seen as much vitriol in my entire life. Not even against Rajoi at the peak of the disaster that was his mandate did I see this much hatred and spain almost broke back then. This has been the most grievous insult this country has recieved EVER, and in case you don't have your history books nearby, spain isn't know for standing by when it's insulted. That is except during franco's mandate, of coursw.

 

[Jimjamflimflam]

Plastic bag-6 to 8 grams
Paper bag- 55 grams

All about bags (Archive)

Edit: More about bags
View attachment 1223526
Source / Archive

Both of those sites are owned by plastic bag companies, the second one with the chart is selling their version of plastic bags. Maybe it's as good as they claim but I'm willing to bet that most outlets are using the cheapest, lowest quality material that don't have the addictive chemical to assist in breakdown that the Nashville Wraps is putting in theirs.


I've never seen paper bags littering the side of the road. I see plastic bags fucking constantly. Additionally there isn't a island of paper bags floating in the ocean, nor is paper bags entering our food chain. I'm more concern with the long term effects caused by out never ending use of plastic for everything.

 

[Stoneheart]

And that is that Europe thinks we're fucking idiots and are backstabbing us as always, that what the netherlands has done is a war declaration that should be answered with utmost prejudice, and that the government's fucking exceptional if it thinks it can claim this strategy is good.

Maybe they are still salty from beeing ruled by Incesto III of spain for some time.

Spain has mobilized. Spain is motivated. Spain now universaly agrees on something. Be very afraid. Right now the scenario in which britain and russia cut europe in 3 with trade deals is a BEST CASE SCENARIO for the Netherlands.

the dutch are swamp germans and will stay with the 4th reich till the end. same goes for the east, they maybe not like liberals there, but they love jobs and hate russians and germany is the best source for jobs and protection.

also neither Russia nor the brits have much trade power. the Russians need to export oil and natural gas to europe to survive and british banks can be replaced with european banks in an heartbeat. the germanic nations have a very good local banking system, international banks are just a bonus.

 

[Aria]

UK reports 980 new coronavirus deaths, raising total 8,958

BNO Newsroom on Twitter

“BREAKING: UK reports 980 new coronavirus deaths, raising total 8,958 https://t.co/ACTvkkQ0g2”

twitter.com

BNO Newsroom on Twitter: "BREAKING: UK reports 980 new coronavirus de…

archived 10 Apr 2020 16:21:26 UTC

archive.li

 

[moocow]

Yeah about that. You might want to look up what paper bags degrade into. And what is released into the soil and environment when they decompose.

Yeah, y'know what? As John Q. Public, I can't win. Plastic bags last forever/clog up landfills/hurt marine life/whatever. Paper bags kill trees, turn to deadly poison when they break down, cost more to make and transport. Reusable bags carry bugs. There is legitimately no choice to be made at the checkout that doesn't upset some environmentalist or other.

Fuck it. I give up. Just put all my groceries into this nice human-sized pine box I've got here and load it into the bed of this late-model pickup that gets 5 mpg and blows thick black smoke every time I give it any gas. No bags required. Happy now, hippies?

 

[EmuWarsVeteran]

Maybe they are still salty from beeing ruled by Incesto III of spain for some time.

Hey that's not fair it's not our fault the fucking austrians took control!

 

[Gustav Schuchardt]

Boris is walking again. His Dad has said he 'must rest up', demonstrating that even if you make it PM, your parents will still be your parents.

PM taking short walks as virus care continues

The prime minister thanks the NHS team looking after him for "the incredible care he has received".

www.bbc.co.uk

https://web.archive.org/web/20200410162743/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52239688

Boris Johnson is taking short walks between periods of rest as part of the care he is receiving for coronavirus.

The prime minister has also thanked the team looking after him for the "incredible care" he has received, a Downing Street spokesman said.

Mr Johnson was taken to hospital on Sunday - 10 days after testing positive.

Earlier on Friday, his father said Mr Johnson "must rest up" after he was moved from intensive care.

Stanley Johnson spoke of his "relief" that his son had begun his recovery, adding that he thought his illness had "got the whole country to realise this is a serious event".

Dr. Campbell's latest video reckons that R0 is now 0.62 in the UK which is less than one and that means new cases should decline. He wants the police to break up gatherings outside and for people who coof at the police to be prosecuted for attempted murder. This is a bad idea and will lead to riots. He thinks as antibody testing rolls out the asymptomatic case rate will go up, which means the total number of infected will go up, which means the case fatality rate will go down. I'd say this make it a bad idea for the police to take action against urban yoof which could cause shit to all kick-off.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lssv5zbU4ZM
https://archive.vn/NUzjU
https://web.archive.org/watch?v=lssv5zbU4ZM

Googling "UK R0 0.62" I found this

https://web.archive.org/web/2020040...n-is-slowing-spread-of-covid-19-idUSKBN21J56W

The research, which was not peer-reviewed but was posted on LSHTM’S Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases website, looked at a key feature of infectious disease epidemics known as the reproduction number, sometimes called the R0, or ‘R nought’.

This describes the number of people, on average, who will catch a disease from a single infected person. If that number can be brought down to below 1.0, this signals that an epidemic will decline.

Using the change in contact patterns, the Edmunds’ team calculated a change in reproduction number between the pre-lockdown and post lockdown periods.

The finding that the mean number of contacts per person measured is more than 70% lower now than before the lockdown suggests that the R0 reproduction value now would be between 0.37 and 0.89, they said, with the most likely value being 0.62.

Very, very interesting. A 70% reduction in contact means a 70% reduction in R0. The guestimate for the initial value of R0 was 2.2, 0.3*2.2 is 0.66. I'm not sure how they got their confidence intervals because I can't find the original paper.

Edit:

Here's the paper

Impact of physical distance measures on transmission in the UK

We present the first results of an ongoing survey (CoMix) to track social contact behaviour during the Covid-19 pandemic, and compare social mixing to patterns found in a previous survey.

cmmid.github.io

https://web.archive.org/web/2020040...tance-measures-on-transmission-in-the-UK.html

We found a 73% reduction in the average daily number of contacts observed per participant. This would be sufficient to reduce R0 from a value from 2.6 before the lockdown to 0.62 (0.37 - 0.89) during the lockdown, indicating that physical distancing interventions are effective in reducing the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and should lead to a substantial impact and decline in cases in the coming weeks. However, this projected decline in incidence will not occur immediately due to significant delays between infection, onset of symptomatic disease and hospitalisation, and reporting of these events. Panel A in Figure 1 compares the social contact matrix found in our current study to that in the POLYMOD study, and panel B shows our estimate of the current R0 value.

I don't really understand their model and it seems like it's significantly more complex than just multiplying the initial R0 by a reduction, but the results seem to be reasonable according to that crude sanity check.

Their model gives this cool probability density function for R0

It actually looks like this is what you'd get if you modeled the reduction in contacts across society with 'R0 ~ Norm(2.6, sd = 0.54) '.

This is very good news - look how small the probability of it is greater than one is. Looks like the sacrifices have pleased the rain god the lockdown has reduced R0 below 1.

 

[EmuWarsVeteran]

Yeah, y'know what? As John Q. Public, I can't win. Plastic bags last forever/clog up landfills/hurt marine life/whatever. Paper bags kill trees, turn to deadly poison when they break down, cost more to make and transport. Reusable bags carry bugs. There is legitimately no choice to be made at the checkout that doesn't upset some environmentalist or other.

Fuck it. I give up. Just put all my groceries into this nice human-sized pine box I've got here and load it into the bed of this late-model pickup that gets 5 mpg and blows thick black smoke every time I give it any gas. No bags required. Happy now, hippies?

Either way what matters the most is that they're properly recycled. The bag itself doesn't really matter that much. And I don't remember 'cause it's been a fucking while since I studied that shit but I seem to recall plastic is actually less polluting when being recycled than paper. (For bags that is.) I just use whatever the shop has usually.