April 14, 2020
Viruses 101: How Overprotecting People from COVID 19 Could Make it More Lethal
By
Brandon P. Reines
With heroic imagination rivalling Don Quixote’s, our hysterical health technocrats are stuck in a time capsule in the middle of World War 1 from which they battle the most terrible pathogen of all time -- the original H1N1 flu virus. How else to explain why they have adopted precisely the public health tactics -- masking, social distancing, and quarantining -- that were used in 1918?
Our wildly anachronistic approach to COVID 19 notwithstanding, we have spent billions for research and know volumes more about viruses and immunity than we did a century ago. The crime is that we the taxpaying public never received a proper education on the subject. I realized that myself 20 years ago when I first read J. R. Paul’s
A History of Poliomyelitis. It quietly reveals that almost none of what we have learned in American public schools is even close to the truth.
More importantly, the deep knowledge of viruses garnered from studying both the original H1N1 flu and polio strongly implies that, if we continue to over-react and over-protect people from COVID 19, we risk turning it into a much more lethal virus. In order to understand why I am so concerned about that, first let’s look at how the original flu virus turned into the worst killer the world has ever known, one which not only felled older people and those with weakened immunity, but people in the prime of life including older children and young adults:
1) In general, viruses evolve with their human hosts to get what they need without killing us. Allowing us to survive actually benefits the virus -- they get to survive, too, and get passed to another human host.
2) During WWI, millions of people globally were terrified, malnourished and immuno-suppressed.
3) Soldiers lay in foxholes bleeding, coughing and vomiting on each other.
4) In this chaotic situation, the flu virus could "get away with" becoming extremely lethal and kill the host soldiers -- because there were so many of them in close proximity -- the virus could spread to another soldier almost as easily from a dead soldier as from a live one.
5) Having millions of people with weakened immunity allowed the flu virus to spread quickly and easily into new populations.
How did the H1N1 monster of 1918 become -- evolve into--the relatively meek flu viruses of today? As the human population gradually recovered from WW1, the flu virus had to go back to the safety of peaceful coexistence with its human hosts, and to co-evolving with their immune systems in a way that would allow both species to survive. The real polio story is similar:
Incredibly, from our modern “civilized” standpoint, and as David Shumway Jones recently reminded me, the polio virus was not dangerous until natural herd immunity was disrupted by modern sewerage systems which short-circuited usual fecal-oral natural immunization.