Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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The Google Play Store can be disabled, at least on my Android phone. I have no idea who just keeps Bluetooth on, though.
Looks like I'm just going to rely on F-Droid until this all blows over.
"Google has confirmed that it will use the Google Play Services infrastructure "

Google play services is separate from the google play store, and it cannot be disables unless you have a rooted phone. I forsee an increase in phones available with google-free android in response to this.
 
Trevor Kavanaugh has decided to break ranks and point out that in the UK the death toll is up on last year but only about half of that is due to coronavirus. Which implies the other half is not

https://archive.vn/whsH5


Here's the Kavanaugh article

https://archive.vn/wip/0uSy6

HARD facts mean hard choices. In the week before Easter, 16,387 people died of all causes in England and Wales.

This was 6,082 more than the five-year average. Half of those 6,082 deaths are blamed on coronavirus.
We do not know how the other half died, although some will have missed life-saving healthcare because of the pandemic.

What we do know is that this hideous virus is killing the economy.

Because he doesn't cite his sources it's impossible to verify this claim. The week ending in Easter would the 12th April but if you go the ONS site they only have data to the 3rd April. He obviously started out with the belief that more people are dying from the lockdown than the virus and he's got one piece of data to support that with no citation and he may well have misunderstood his source even if it exists. Also, that first sentence is top tier cuntery. And then there's 'We do not know how the other half died, although some will have missed life-saving healthcare because of the pandemic'. So we've got no idea what caused the 3000 deaths but we'll just assume it was due to a cause that fits my narrative.

I'm almost inclined to say this is fake news, to be honest. I probably agree with Kavanaugh more than I disagree and certainly, more than I'd agree with a Guardian journalist but that's a piss poor bit journalism right there. And the ruthless misuse of data would make even George Monbiot blush.
 
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UK Daily:

398,916 Tested (+15,994)

98,746 Positive (+4,605)

12,868 Dead (+761)

Appears to be settling.
What impact has the long weekend had on reporting - a lot of stuff wasn’t rolling in to dashboards over Easter. I think it’s plateauing one a few European countries which is great, but also o think a bit of caution for the effect of a nice Easter bank holiday on both reporting and for a few weeks down the line maybe a small uptick.

. I do not want my kids running about with, or marrying into, families of “poor grafters on the up”.
Private/public school education is academically better in the main, but what you really pay for is the old boy network. You pay for the privilege of putting your kids through school with the children of people who are connected. I grew up poor and went to a fancy uni on merit, and while my peers were no smarter than me and didn’t do better than me academically, the influence of networks and connections is vast. Also the confidence it drums into kids is amazing. I wish I’d had such an upbringing tbh.

to the daily cases for each country and tried to use that as a forecasting tool, but I can't find a site doing it.
I think it won’t fit a normal curve but that’s a guess. Steep rise, long flat bit on top and a long tail would be my guess. With a few wobbles along the way as secondary waves hit.
 
Trevor Kavanaugh has decided to break ranks and point out that in the UK the death toll is up on last year but only about half of that is due to coronavirus. Which implies the other half is not

https://archive.vn/whsH5
View attachment 1232664

Here's the Kavanaugh article

https://archive.vn/wip/0uSy6



Because he doesn't cite his sources it's impossible to verify this claim. The week ending in Easter would the 12th April but if you go the ONS site they only have data to the 3rd April. He obviously started out with the belief that more people are dying from the lockdown than the virus and he's got one piece of data to support that with no citation and he may well have misunderstood his source even if it exists. Also, that first sentence is top tier cuntery. And then there's 'We do not know how the other half died, although some will have missed life-saving healthcare because of the pandemic'. So we've got no idea what caused the 3000 deaths but we'll just assume it was due to a cause that fits my narrative.

I'm almost inclined to say this is fake news, to be honest. I probably agree with Kavanaugh more than I disagree and certainly, more than I'd agree with a Guardian journalist but that's a piss poor bit journalism right there. And the ruthless misuse of data would make even George Monbiot blush.

Has he considered underreporting as an option? Of course not for all of those deaths, but a good chunk. I imagine most governments are underreporting a lot. I'd like to see this done with more countries outside the UK including my own since it seems some areas indeed underreported and are now fixing it slowly. I believe many countries will find a lot more deaths without much corona reporting. And take into account that reduced traffic should've diminished non-corona deaths significantly, so if they're not lowering... shit's not right.
 
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It's ok, next year you will pay more when the inflation kicks in. brrrrrrrrrrrr...

Extremely so, if the House Dems get their way.


Guess those Twitter posts about dindus saying how much they appreciated the $1200 from Trump hit a little home with the plantation owners.


Also:


Guessing China is really starting to feel some internal pressure.
 
Trevor Kavanaugh has decided to break ranks and point out that in the UK the death toll is up on last year but only about half of that is due to coronavirus. Which implies the other half is not

https://archive.vn/whsH5
View attachment 1232664

Here's the Kavanaugh article

https://archive.vn/wip/0uSy6



Because he doesn't cite his sources it's impossible to verify this claim. The week ending in Easter would the 12th April but if you go the ONS site they only have data to the 3rd April. He obviously started out with the belief that more people are dying from the lockdown than the virus and he's got one piece of data to support that with no citation and he may well have misunderstood his source even if it exists. Also, that first sentence is top tier cuntery. And then there's 'We do not know how the other half died, although some will have missed life-saving healthcare because of the pandemic'. So we've got no idea what caused the 3000 deaths but we'll just assume it was due to a cause that fits my narrative.

I'm almost inclined to say this is fake news, to be honest. I probably agree with Kavanaugh more than I disagree and certainly, more than I'd agree with a Guardian journalist but that's a piss poor bit journalism right there. And the ruthless misuse of data would make even George Monbiot blush.
I've seen some numbers that back up his 3000+3000 narrative. Can't remember where though. I'm pretty sure it was in this thread , because I'm not reading much else. If not, it'll have been a link off this thread. I'll try to find it. It was a table showing the current year figures and the average of the last five years, and the pneumonia deaths didn't add up. I was going to post something, but couldn't arsed.

**EDIT** Found something.
Not quite what I remember, but it seems to be the original source:
Office National Statistics . (archive) . Download the excel spreadsheet for W/E 3rd April . (attached)
It's a very detailed spreadsheet. The ONS do a cracking job. If you want age breakdowns etc, this spread sheet has them.
Front page has
16000 - Copy.PNG

16,300 deaths that week, compared to rolling average of only 10,300. Only 3,475 mentioned Covid on the Death Certificate.
Not the absolute proof the journo thinks it is, but definitely interesting.


Unrelated, archive links from previous pages:
Order Order UK public obeying rules
Reuters , MI6 chief say China lied
 

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Extremely so, if the House Dems get their way.


Guess those Twitter posts about dindus saying how much they appreciated the $1200 from Trump hit a little home with the plantation owners.


Also:


Guessing China is really starting to feel some internal pressure.

So not only are they gonna implement UBI but they plan on giving motherfucking 2000 a month to everyone? Over here making 1000 a month is considered being middle class at least! And here I thought our "nuff for food and cheap rent and stfu" UBI was insane! How in the name of fuck do they plan to print that much money? The dollar's gonna wind up being cheaper than the fucking Peseta!
 
Private/public school education is academically better in the main, but what you really pay for is the old boy network. You pay for the privilege of putting your kids through school with the children of people who are connected. I grew up poor and went to a fancy uni on merit, and while my peers were no smarter than me and didn’t do better than me academically, the influence of networks and connections is vast. Also the confidence it drums into kids is amazing. I wish I’d had such an upbringing tbh.

This is the thing that motivates me the most. My sister in law is obviously smarter, better looking, drastically more personable, much harder working and frankly superior in all the work related skills to my brother.

She also has the confidence of a kicked puppy, whereas he was given the confidence of Cristiano Ronaldo by the fancy education she didn’t get. My brother learnt to “act as if”. I came across this concept later in life and understood that this is what parents were paying for.

My sister in law is a person I deeply love and admire, and she says no kid of hers is going to what she refers to as “the crap school I went to”. I am not going to gainsay her experience.

My spouse went to a fancy med school on merit from a comp. I know that despite his faults, he is a very smart and hardworking dude at work. He expected a top career in surgery or some such and to retire Professor Sir.

He’s a GP, because when it came time to get the coveted and high status training posts, amazingly they were all assigned to young folk who Knew People and were Related To People and Went To School With Peoples Kids. You know exactly the sort of thing I mean. I have a mate - a truly lovely guy - who was about to fail his fellowship exams for the final time in his speciality. This would have meant he couldn‘t take up his consultant post. Luckily for him, his dad was the emeritus head of the relevant college and a schoolmate of the current head, who was handily also godfather of my mate. Imagine the general amazement when he passed the exam.

Now, I don’t approve of that shit at all, but I throw it in there to underline: it matters so much what networks you are in that if you aren’t in them, you will probably never realise the opportunities that exist that weren‘t even offered to you.

Is it fair? Absolutely not, no. Is it the optimal way to run society? Also absolutely not. Am I prepared to gamble my kids’ future opportunities on my political principles? Fuck no.

I have two side gigs in what I laughably refer to as my personal time. One of them I do freelance through people I know. I do very little considering, charge a cheap rate, and it pays my mortgage. The other I do for free and actually accomplishes something. I do interview training and CV writing for young kids leaving school/college etc, because the number of them who are leaving school, college etc without basic knowledge I got from my dad is terrifying. Like.... this is what you wear to an interview. You shake hands, you make eye contact... I mean shit like that. These kids are often bright, usually hard working, and they just do not know how to write up their work experience and extracurricular stuff into anything that resembles a standard form (let alone good) CV.

I don’t know where you learn this shit, if there‘s no one in your family to teach you and for some reason school doesn’t view it as important. What I do know is that I help as many kids as I can, and these kids who literally could not get an interview at Boots before are now getting good jobs at 25k a year. I didn’t change one thing about them. (Okay, I also give interview wear advice. Christ, that is sometimes desperately needed.) What I did was show them how to present themselves in the way I was taught. It’s not much to pass on, but I pass on what I can. And I wonder why this isn‘t happening more.
 
So not only are they gonna implement UBI but they plan on giving motherfucking 2000 a month to everyone? Over here making 1000 a month is considered being middle class at least! And here I thought our "nuff for food and cheap rent and stfu" UBI was insane! How in the name of fuck do they plan to print that much money? The dollar's gonna wind up being cheaper than the fucking Peseta!

It's more likely this is like the Green New deal or Pelosi's 2000 page random note. It's designed so they can spend the next month screaming in the media that mean old ORANGE MAN stopped them from fixing things.
 
It's more likely this is like the Green New deal or Pelosi's 2000 page random note. It's designed so they can spend the next month screaming in the media that mean old ORANGE MAN stopped them from fixing things.

Ah yeah I forgot they follow PP rules. Just bitch endlessly with no endgoal in mind then betray your principles as soon as you do anything... How do people keep voting for these impresentables?!
 
Urgh, see twenty years ago I’d have said that was sexist, but having gone through the whole family thing, you’re right.
You’re told at school that you must work hard and bombarded with the whole teen mum thing. Don’t do that, that’s bad. And remember it wasn’t long ago, even when I was a kid, that girls were told they shouldn’t do certain jobs. That was crap. Then third wave feminism came along and warped the sensible message (women can be scientists/doctors/whatever/ ) into slagging off motherhood as being lesser. So an entire generation of women has been pushed into work (because you can’t raise a family on one income in the uk unless that income is high) AND sold the myth that you can have it all. So all these women dutifully spend years doing their accountancy exams or medical school or a PhD and think they’re doing what they should be doing and then they hit reality. Maternity leave and small toddlers do not work with a really demanding job unless you’ve got enough cash for a nanny or are a superhuman being. junior doctor jobs do not pay enough to hire a nanny. We have a low wage high tax society.
Most men’s bosses don’t have a culture where men can go part time. Most men, IME, don’t want to either. Way more women do want to. So in effect you’ve got three jobs between two of you. Your job, the fathers job, and domestic/childcare.
Women can’t win, you’re either a shoulder padded catlady bitch, or a parasite for being a stay at home mum. There’s no way to win the game. The compromise is part time hours, which lets women work high skill jobs and still raise families.
So... I don’t blame women GPS for wanting to be part time, but yeah, it’s helping to crash the system. That’s what you get for expanding the tax base. Burned out parents and you can’t fill enough job roles. Dunno what the answer is there to be honest.

So yeah, it’s easy to pin the blame on women (You didn’t, I’m just saying generally) but the blame really is the system which demands both parents work and shove the offspring in childcare. Women have been sold a pup and been told they can have it all.

There were a couple of "valid" reasons to push against young motherhood so hard (and it's a reflection of the times that today "young motherhood" means 18/19). For one, just go back to the 1940s and an equivalent age lad who might be the father would already have a job and be earning. Probably not a huge amount, but an 18 year old mother with an 18-24 year old husband would be married to a man with a job. An 18 year old man today is a boy. Who rather than starting to earn is starting to get serious debt for the first time in his life. The second big reason is that there's now a dearth of extended family members who are available to help raise the child. Put those two together and a young mother is facing some serious hardship.

Now whether one wants to go on and criticize the fact society has gone that way is another matter, but fact is a young mother faces those challenges today. She either finds someone notably older than herself and already established or else tries not to get pregnant. If she has any sense and if she isn't lucky enough to come from a better background or her partner does.
 
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The global pandemic that left thousands dead.yep it's all about me, my identity please clap for me.


Oh yeah I can't see this backfiring into a surge of nationalistic hatred of foreigners. No siree. I'm sure people'll take this and swallow the pill silently, after all we have like 3 nigger nurse techs for every mere, puny 3000 white doctors, we totally need those unskilled, filthy, disease ridden immegrants and them being self righteous, lying cockweasels while reminding us why we hated them to begin with cannot possibly resurrect those feelings. Self awareness: on the negative numbers.
 
So not only are they gonna implement UBI but they plan on giving motherfucking 2000 a month to everyone? Over here making 1000 a month is considered being middle class at least! And here I thought our "nuff for food and cheap rent and stfu" UBI was insane! How in the name of fuck do they plan to print that much money? The dollar's gonna wind up being cheaper than the fucking Peseta!

In fairness, I don't think there's anywhere in the U.S. where making 1000 a month would be middle class, and, in most parts, 2000 a month is still below middle class. I do get your point though.
 
I think it’s plateauing one a few European countries which is great, but also o think a bit of caution for the effect of a nice Easter bank holiday on both reporting and for a few weeks down the line maybe a small uptick.
The Active Cases are going down in germany. we will see if the trend holds today.

Oh yeah I can't see this backfiring into a surge of nationalistic hatred of foreigners. No siree. I'm sure people'll take this and swallow the pill silently, after all we have like 3 nigga nurse techs for every mere, puny 3000 white doctors, we totally need those unskilled, filthy, disease ridden immegrants and them being self righteous, lying cockweasels while reminding us why we hated them to begin with cannot possibly resurrect those feelings. Self awareness: on the negative numbers.
thats why we mostly use eastern european workers for important jobs. they maybe drink and steal, but they do their work without bitching.
 
I think it won’t fit a normal curve but that’s a guess. Steep rise, long flat bit on top and a long tail would be my guess. With a few wobbles along the way as secondary waves hit.

I had a look at Taiwan


1586974009181.png


And South Korea


1586974035284.png


You could model it as a normal-ish curve that flattens off at the right side into noise about a mean value.

I'm guessing Taiwan and South Korea are releasing real data, albeit with a few errors. Here's the Chinese data, which I think most people think is fake.


1586974279977.png


Now there a couple of striking things about it. The most obvious one is how the plateau is short, only a few days. Then there's that weird peak and then it drops off. I'm guessing this data is fake - they told everyone around February 20th that if you're reporting data over some threshold, you will be killed and then reduced the thresholds again on the 24th and then again on March 1st. Or it could be the spike was a load of people who got sent off to ze camps and taking them out of circulation solved the problem.

I wonder if we'll ever know actually.
 
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