Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[Takayuki Yagami]

Can you post the picture, please? Can read a certain number of Chinese characters.

In other news, looks like anyone getting unemployment, no matter how little they get, at least in CA, is getting the full $600/week from the Feds. Stepdaughter was getting about $150/week. Got extra $600/week for the last two weeks, so instead of a $300 unemployment payment got $1500. Whoa!

Price of crude oil still going down, just over $18/barrel right now, per WSJ.

Some interesting articles from today's Reason feed...

Will COVID-19 Help Americans Break the Habit of Deferring to Centralized Authority?

We may find that we like making our own decisions.

reason.com

https://archive.vn/EhT2l

The 'False Debate' About Reopening the Economy Is the One That Ignores the Enormous Human Cost of Sweeping COVID-19 Control Measures

A New York Times Magazine forum highlights the moral implications of suppressing economic activity.

reason.com

The ‘False Debate’ About Reopening the Economy Is the One That Ignore…

archived 17 Apr 2020 20:42:01 UTC

archive.vn

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer Provides a Lesson in What States Shouldn't Do To Stop a Pandemic

Some protestors were nasty and went overboard, but her harsh tactics will sap her legitimacy at a critical juncture.

reason.com

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer Provides a Lesson in What States Shoul…

archived 17 Apr 2020 20:44:32 UTC

archive.vn

Public Health Authorities Have Failed America at Every Level

They ignored early warning signs and pretended that everything would be OK.

reason.com

Public Health Authorities Have Failed America at Every Level – Reason…

archived 17 Apr 2020 20:47:17 UTC

archive.vn

Screw it. It’s probably just more China Numbah Won posturing.

 

[Barnard]

View attachment 1237383
Source / Archive
Study PDF attached.

Context according to this guy.
View attachment 1237390
Source / Archive

TL : DR It may actually be just a flu bro.*



*By mortality rate, chill sperg.

There was a similar finding in the Netherlands. 3% of all blood donors had antibodies. 3% of their population is over half a million, so with their death count at 3459, mortality rate would be well below 1%... But of course that's the known death count, we have no idea how many people had it and died before they started connecting the dots. And 3% of all blood donors doesn't translate directly to 3% of the total population, since the sample is mostly just healthy young-to-middle-aged city folk. Tells us nothing about children or old people, for one.

 

[Peace and Harmony]

Are you all done being racist yet you fucking Nazis (archive)

 

[StarkRavingMad]

Sodium Laureth Sulphate has papers written on its ability to break up the phospholipid bilayer in viral capsids. It may well be that fat+caustic soda will produce compounds that can do that, I'm not sure. But SLS is so incredibly common in cheap soaps and shampoos and it looks like it's been tested, why not just buy those?



A lot of knowledgeable people have been speculating about this possibility for a while. We know there are asymptomatic cases, we're unsure how many and we expect them to be more numerous than the symptomatic cases. Once you count them in the CFR drops because the CFR is deaths/total_cases and if total_cases goes up because you've found loads of asymptomatic cases, CFR goes down.

What's interesting about this is that back when the UK was going for the herd immunity route the chief scientific adviser mentioned this, just not in a very clear way and it looked like the death rate was around 1% and the UK would need 400K deaths to get herd immunity.

https://kiwifarms.net/threads/wuhan-coronavirus-megathread.65421/page-792#post-6148094

At that point, a lot of people, including me, said 'Fuck it. Shut down everything'.

Maybe we were wrong and should have looked into estimates for the number of asymptomatic cases. Mind you it seems questionable to do that a month ago when that was a number with a very wide uncertainty range. However, the death toll from the lockdown was also completely unknown. It's a difficult decision. And you could see Boris struggled with it for a while until the Ferguson study came out with a very high estimate of the deaths from not locking down.

To be fair, it's easy to say which was the best method of tackling this thing as we find out more about it. When all of this is said and done, everyone is going to say what we could and should have done.

This is a new virus that nobody knew anything about, and China's actions screwed the rest of the world over in terms of biding time to find out about this thing in a timely fashion before it hit the West.

 

[Gustav Schuchardt]

To be fair, it's easy to say which was the best method of tackling this thing as we find out more about it. When all of this is said and done, everyone is going to say what we could and should have done.

This is a new virus that nobody knew anything about, and China's actions screwed the rest of the world over in terms of biding time to find out about this thing in a timely fashion before it hit the West.

True, but the idiot media in the UK have been portraying this as a 'The answer is obvious! Lockdown enforced by police for as long as it takes. Boris was wrong to delay and not have the Gestapo kick in people's doors on day 1'.

Or old seal memes with messages of "after quarantine", like this one with the message "going to work after quarantine."
Just a TON of that, which is adorable but I'd rather not destroy the server with a fucking DDOS seal video overload so 1 will do. And then we got:
(It also refuses to upload gimme a sec)

I like the way the seal gives him slight side-eye before rolling away. "Don't want to scratch behind my ears? Well fuck your shit then, I'm off'.

 

[No_one]

The economic impact of the Wu-flu: if you're poor, you'll get even poorer. And some places are truly fucked. (archive)

Western clothing brands that agreed not to cancel orders due to the coronavirus epidemic are demanding price cuts of up to 50%, Bangladeshi manufacturers said on Friday, heaping economic pain on a country already reeling from the crisis.

Millions of Bangladeshi households depend on the garment sector, which has been hit hard by the epidemic. Exports fell by 84% in the first half of April as $3 billion-worth of orders were cancelled or suspended, according to factory owners.

Boy, globalization sure is great.

 

[derpherp2]

And the vast majority are so mild people haven't even noticed it.

Yeah it does seem like you do have a massive problem breathing, but after a while you compensate or it disappears.

While this could be one of those second wave shit, that wave isn't here yet.
We should be bracing ourselves for a possible worst case scenario instead of pretending it's happening at this very minute and could get worse the second we lift lockdown/quarantine/idkwhattocallthispussyshitanymore.

 

[CeleryStalks]

Michigan, USA

President Donald Trump (R) has a tweet about us:
Edit because it won't unfurl: "LIBERATE MICHIGAN!'

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1251169217531056130

(archive)

General Motors has delivered its first ventilators. 20 of the machines were sent to two hospitals in Illinois.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2020/04/17/gm-ventilators-ventec-coronavirus/5151821002/

(archive)

Another lawsuit about our shutdown order, this time against the ban on going out in a motorboat.

https://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/2020/04/west-michigan-fishermen-challenge-gov-whitmers-stay-at-home-order.html

(archive)

Spoiler: Michigan Recap

SHUTDOWNS
Shelter-in-place order and shutdown of everything non-essential from Tuesday March 24 to Monday April 13. Friday, May 1. (archive) (executive order saved on KF) Travel between primary homes and secondary homes is banned. Gardening sections of stores are closed. (archive - extension). Marijuana shops are open. Tobacco shops are closed (archive). K-12 schools suspended for remainder of year, but alternate learning plans will be implemented (archive) (archive).
The Big Three Auto manufacturers (Ford, GM, Chrysler) are closing all factories in the USA, putting well over 150,000 workers out of work. This figure does not include workers at supplier factories, which will also be obliged to close. (archive) (archive) (archive). They will be making a small number of parts for emergency vehicles, and GM will be helping Ventec, a company that makes ventilators (archive - ventilators). Ford will be helping 3M and GE Healthcare to make respirators and ventilators (archive).

ECONOMY AND MISCELLANY
Over 1 million unemployment claims filed = 10% of the total population of the state, nearly 25% of the workforce (Archive - April 16).
Big Brother is watching, and he approves. Massive phone-tracking project reveals Michigan travel down by 45%, compared to 40% nation-wide (website) (news article archive).
Car crashes are down, fatal car crashes are down, and overall death is actually down. (archive - April 12)

FREE STUFF!
Evictions suspended while the state of emergency lasts (archive)
Water will be turned back on for all households while the crisis lasts (archive)

HEALTH CARE
Hydroxychloroquine banned by governor's order (archive). Nevermind LOL! Now she's asking the federal government for it and claiming the ban was a typo in the first place. (archive). Detroit-area hospitals are testing the drug's effectiveness as a preventative on first responders and health-care workers (archive).
Up-to-date count of available hospital beds, etc. in the State (the Detroit area is "Section 2, North and South". (government website)
Detroit field hospital admits first 8 Corona patients. It will only be taking the less-serious cases. No one on ventilators.(archive - April 14)
Another field hospital in Detroit scaled back after drop in cases. Original plan was to open with 1,100 beds. Now they are only going to open with 250, planned to open April 20. (archive - April 11)

LAW AND ORDER
All localities given more discretion to release prisoners early (archive). The State prison system is not currently releasing inmates early.
Lansing (the capitol) police are not physically responding to minor crimes such as larceny, property damage, and break-ins to unoccupied buildings, including garages. Other police are adopting similar policies (archive) (archive).
Detroit crime still down (archive - April 12); Muskegon police report crime is up (archive).
Breaking the lockdown is a misdemeanor, punishable by $1500 fines and 90 days jail time. Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) has stated there will not be a "ramp up" of police enforcement (archive). The attorney general has left it to local law enforcement to close businesses, as her hands are full with price-gougers and con artists (archive).
The police cannot, at present, pull drivers over simply for being out during the shutdown (archive). Local police in the rural north and in Detroit suburbs have alike stated they will not be enforcing parts of the order (archive).

DEATH TOLL

The state government recently updated the way it counts cases, which caused a spike in yesterday's death toll.

*Note on 4/16/20 death data: MDHHS staff has put in place, a weekly review death certificate data maintained in Vital Records reporting systems. As a part of this process, records that identify COVID-19 infection as a contributing factor to death are compared against all laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Michigan Disease Surveillance System (MDSS). If a death certificate is matched to a confirmed COVID-19 case and that record in the MDSS does not indicate a death, the MDSS record is updated to indicate the death and the appropriate local health department is notified. These matched deaths are then included with mortality information posted to the Michigan Coronavirus website. As a result of this week’s assessment, today’s data includes 65 additional deaths that have been identified through this methodology.

Detroit Metro (pop. 3,860,000 total; 1,796/sq. mi.; 694/sq km):*

23,279 confirmed / 1,859 dead
22,772 confirmed / 1,755 dead yesterday
(i.e. 104 new deaths, down 45 from previous day)
Normal Detroit Metro Death Rate: 104 per day.**

Other Michigan (6,120,000; 65/sq. mi.; 25/sq km):

6,744 confirmed / 368 dead
6,491 confirmed / 338 dead yesterday
(i.e. 30 new deaths, up 7 from previous day)
Normal not-Detroit Death Rate: 167 per day**

All Michigan (9,990,000; 103/sq. mi.; 40/sq km):

30,023 confirmed / 2,227 dead
29,263 confirmed / 2,093 dead yesterday
(i.e. 134 new deaths, down 38 from previous day, up 27 when yesterday's adjustment is factored in, if I'm doing the math right)
Normal Michigan Death Rate: 271 per day.**

Death toll doubled since: April 9.
We have been locked down since: March 24.

Detroit Metro Daily Deaths Last Seven Days:
89 / 73 / 97 / 130 / 129 / 149*** / 104 = 771***

State Government site, daily - today's archive;
State Gov site, total, includes breakdowns by sex, age, race and ethnicity - today's archive.
*Here defined as the City of Detroit, and Macomb, Oakland, and Wayne Counties, minus state prisoners, who are not counted towards any county's cases, but are kept in a category of their own.
** As of 2018.
*** 65 statewide deaths were added on this day because of an adjustment in reporting standards. Presumably most were in Detroit.
Also one Ann Arbor man allegedly killed by his roommate in a Corona-related dispute (archive). The suspect has been released from custody while the investigation continues (archive).

 

[737 MAX Stan Account]

The economic impact of the Wu-flu: if you're poor, you'll get even poorer. And some places are truly fucked. (archive)


Boy, globalization sure is great.

Isnt that the country that's the size of Tennessee and with a 100 million people in it? A crowded, poverty stricken shithole with a super pandemic. They really are fucked.

 

[RodgerDodger]

Another new Serpentza video. Love the African Ambassador Lady taking China to task. (And subtly threatening the safety of the 10 million Chinese exploiting and raping living in Africa.

 

[StarkRavingMad]

Gov Inslee has been suffering from a bad case of the TDS ever since this coronavirus thing really took off. He is absolutely seething that Trump has called him out several times for being unreasonable and, frankly annoying. Either work with the feds or don't, but you cannot cry when the feds say "Hey maybe don't talk shit about us 24/7 on Twitter and news stations, thanks." WA was given everything, even though Inslee is a little bitch. WA didn't even need the navy ship, or the ventilators, but they got them anyway. Despite this, Inslee is still ranting about Trump on Twitter and really this one takes the cake:

Spoiler: "The president’s statements this morning encourage illegal and dangerous acts."

View attachment 1237580
View attachment 1237581
View attachment 1237582

I'm assuming he was wiping away furious tears as he wrote this.

"Encouraging illegal activities"

Like what? Taking a fucking walk outside?

The authoritarians in our government are really coming out of the woodworks over this. They have a raging hard-on for control over everyone now that they've gotten a taste of it.

Trump is clearly playing 4D chess with the governors, and they're taking the bait. They hold the power to do what the public wants and be heroes for it, but no. They want everyone to stay in their breadlines because Orange Man Bad.

 

[No_one]

Isnt that the country that's the size of Tennessee and with a 100 million people in it? A crowded, poverty stricken shithole with a super pandemic. They really are fucked.

160 million population and about the size of Georgia to be precise, but the rest is about right.

 

[Bully_Hunter_69]

Because mortgage payments, car loans, college loans, childcare contracts, food, gas, electric, and water bills, as well as interest, all just magically come to a stop are are totally not just delayed if you are lucky until the crisis is over. Everyone who doesnt have 3+ months of savings is utterly irresponsible. You do realize that, while everyone is unemployed, all those payments are deferred, not canceled, right? They are all going to come due once this is over, and the loans are not having their end dates move, so people with payments will still have to pay the same amount this year but with 2-4 months less income. Most people, even those well off, are going to feel the sting of 3 months of bills all coming due at once while loosing 2-4 months of income. And many who have lost their jobs are not going to get them back right away, it will take time for the economy to recover.

Good time to don the tranny socks and juxtapose to something that isn't retail and settling for that as stability. Still failing to empathize with my irresponsible countrymen, you make it sound like they're living outside their means more than anything.

College loans are on forbearance until September. Most banks are willing to work something out with their customers, ASSUMING that the customer has good standing (do you want me to bend over and cry for those that aren't because 'how could we have prevented this?') and get relief in the form of deferred payments or payment plans beyond what is expected. Food pantries exist and are constantly crying for donations, and the national guard is there to serve at food pantries. Utility companies will also work with those in good standing. All of those examples you listed can be dealt with on a granular level and based on the individual's standing. Anyone who lets themselves get swallowed in the torrent kind of fucking deserves it. Anyone who thinks that this crisis means "sit at home and figure it out when I'm given the command" deserves every bad thing coming their way - it's not my fault they're so smoothbrained that they fail to adapt.

You can whine "doomer" all you want but the reality is, most of yours and mine countrymen are downright idiots that need to be told exactly how fast to run and how high to jump. People are excited for a $1,200 check and mutterings of "maybe we can go back to normal soon" - not exactly a high standard I desire to be associated with. I hope you're ready for Phase 2: Death Boogaloo. You're placing so much trust on the shoulders of others to do right by you that it's kind of cute.

 

[CeleryStalks]

Posting this one separately, because it has to do with how the numbers are counted, which I presume is similar to the situations elsewhere in the world:

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/medical-experts-say-michigans-coronavirus-death-count-isnt-accurate-but-is-it-too-high-or-too-low.html

(Archive)

Some highlights:

"In Oakland County [part of the Detroit Metro Area], every individual who has died while infected with COVID-19 has counted as a coronavirus death, according to Dr. Ljubisa J. Gragovic, the county’s chief medical examiner.

"In places like Macomb [Also part of the DMA] and Kent counties, testing for the virus by the medical examiner’s office is only conducted if the investigation into the cause of death revealed an individual showed symptoms of the virus before dying."

Despite the above quote, the article also says a man who committed suicide in Macomb was tested, found positive for Corona, and included in the official death toll.

"Health officials believe as many as 25 to 50 percent of people with COVID-19 might not show symptoms, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."

TL;DR it's both too high (because deaths with COVID-19 are being counted alongside deaths from COVID-19) and too low (because people who die at home aren't being counted). Some doctors are testing everyone they can; others think that's a waste of valuable resources.

 

[Gustav Schuchardt]

Dr. Campbell did a video on a self-reporting tool. You fill it in if you get sick and if you develop one of the red flag symptoms, seek medical attention. Unless you're a Redditor of course, then just lie down near the door to make it easier for the EMTs to haul your carcass out when the smell starts to bother your neighbors. But if you don't post on Reddit other than to troll and incite insurrection, best seek medical attention.

Friday 17th April, Good and simple idea

Dr. David Sun, Record sheet http://www.100avefmc.com/images/doc/record.pdf https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSTrZpX_b14 Symptom check list in English https://...

www.youtube.com

https://archive.vn/oxZmW

Local upload, in glorious 720p

Link to the document

http://www.100avefmc.com/images/doc/record.pdf
https://web.archive.org/web/20200417230430/http://www.100avefmc.com/images/doc/record.pdf
Uploaded locally as a pdf.

 

[teriyakiburns]

Screw it. It’s probably just more China Numbah Won posturing.

According to my fancy translate app


So yeah, more NUMBAH ONE crap.

 

[Iron Hamster]

http://archive.vn/PPqVH

 

[AmpleApricots]

It's good to see this thread has calmed down a bit and came out of panic mode somewhat.

An older, unhealthier coworker of me came down with the wuflu (confirmed positive, test as result of following a contact chain) and had something that's best described as a medium/worse cold, much lighter than what I had early march. (although I was never confirmed for anything) He's already fine and it barely affected him at all although he ticks off several boxes regarding risk and smokes on top of it. I feel they're missing some big puzzle piece on this thing.

Apropos of nothing and as a somewhat different perspective we've talked about some of his mentally ill clients and quite a few are actually dealing surprisingly well with all this. We were theorizing it might be because many are living on the social fringe and even in best of times don't know what'll happen two months down the road, so it's really nothing that new to them. One even mostly expressed pretty big concern for other people and their activities and how they're kept from doing them and how it makes him unhappy as he always felt well when other people around him do their things and live their lives. (dude barely can be goaded to leave the house) It doesn't mean much but I found it funny as a stark contrast to how some of the "productive and important" parts of society fall completely to pieces about this.

Germany is doing very well. Lots of people recovered and more recover than get infected, reinfection rate of under 1, (0.7) 10k+ free intensive care beds and while the shutdown was prolonged, parts of the economy will be carefully opened up and our health minister actually said today that the virus is on it's way of being contained. (they've been VERY conservative with such statements) We also have implemented a central register of intensive care capacities which registering to is mandatory with hospitals and it helps divert cases to places where there's room. We'll see how well it goes. Germanys shut down rules weren't as strict as the ones of France, Italy or Spain and they still helped, so I start to have my doubts about the early claimed huge infectiousness of this thing, especially regarding that most people here still don't wear masks and quite a few really don't follow the social distancing rules. (then again, where there is no virus, there can't be any infections) Panic shopping and such has completely stopped and people are in good spirits. Maybe too good spirits. I'm worried people might start taking things less seriously and feel too invulnerable.

We'll see in a few weeks I guess. I hope we continue on course, it might still all backfire. We are still finishing the emergency clinics we started building just in case and Germany has already 50 companies gearing up for production of protective equipment and the goal is the production of 40 million filtering masks a week by August which will also be exported into other countries. The EU invested into the transport of patients across europe and germany will probably start taking more. Normal hospital operation will also start up again soon. Let's hope it all doesn't backfire.

 

[Lurker69]

WHO issues warning on coronavirus testing: There’s no evidence antibody tests show immunity

http://archive.is/O7eID

Thanks WHO!

 

[Govt. Shitposting Machine]

WHO issues warning on coronavirus testing: There’s no evidence antibody tests show immunity

http://archive.li/O7eID

Thanks WHO!

At this point I've come to learn with WHO it's always opposite day. Masks don't work, no human to human spread, etc.
So let's see how this one turns out.