Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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Rudy Russo said:
I think the recovery numbers are wrong (along with deaths and cases). It depends on what country your talking about as to why they are wrong though.
China flat out lied on everything and their numbers are usless.

Iran? Iran from the start was lying about their recoveries. They had their inital case numbers recovered in less than a week and crap like that went on for a good chunk of march. They were account for more than half of the non china recoveries daily for the world. Total BS.

The USA recovery number whent up really slow. Sitting on the same number for a week at a time. Were they being careful or was the paperwork sitting in someones inbox for days at a time. Is there still some sort of slowness going on?

Germany. Last seven days 57,400 / 60,300 / 64,300 / 68,200 / 72,600 / 77,000 / 83,114. You can see the problem there.

Those are the easy one right off the top of my head. You can pick apart a number of other counties numbers the same way.

Problem with the recovery numbers is theres no real standard between countries on what or when a recovery is counted, people lying to make their country look better, some might be lying to scare their population, and some might be slipping through the cracks or sitting on a desk somewhere waiting for a signature. God knows what else can be wrong with them and the case and death number have similar problems.

As for whats happening? What it looks like to me is countries whos government doesnt step on its dick with its response and have a halfway decent medical system that doesnt get overwhelmed isnt having a big problem. It does seem, like you say, that large stacked cities with more mass transit have a much worse problem.
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To be fair we have been getting consistent reports that the WuFlu is a clingy bitch who camps your ass for 3 weeks or more so I would expect the recovery numbers to be laggy AF.
 
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RomanesEuntDomus said:
Conspiritards still claim this is just the flu (bro) and that if we didn't have this much media attention focused on the sickness, we wouldn't even have noticed...

And I'm sitting here wondering, how much worse it needs to be. Corpses get crammed into ice-skating rings, cause funeral homes can't keep up and hospitals are full to the brim with sick people that need invasive mechanical ventilation.
Yeah. Without the media circus, we would have totally not noticed the fucking refrigerated trucks used to store corpses in a major city.
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TBF, some leaders have brought this upon themselves. How the hell are you gonna ban the sale of gardening supplies and paint? The adjacent isles are open, why specifically paint?

Our governors in the US should have been smarter and realized a blanket lockdown of the same restrictions across an entire state was going to rile people up. Then throw in vague statements about what the plan is, throw in some arbitrary buying bans, and then have police threaten people by saying things such as "protesting isn't essential". Don't forget to break your own decrees and travel to your personal summer cottage or w/e. You're part of the elite, not a filthy pleb.

You know, I'm just not understanding why the people are getting tired of listening to those in charge. I just can't put my finger on it.
 
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Nykysnottrans said:
A very sobering read. Send this to anyone who still claims that this pandemic is a hoax:



The doctors tried a drug called Actemra (aka Tocilizumab, a drug that was brought up earlier in the thread), which was designed to treat rheumatoid arthritis but also approved in 2017 to treat cytokine storms in cancer patients.



Interesting vlog from a pilot:

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I don't think anyone is claiming it's a hoax, they're saying politicians and unelected officials are a joke.
 
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My wife has jokes today, too.

Except she's dead serious, and got sick of telling people to back off.
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Noted stupid bitch Jacinda Ardern is teasing opening New Zealand (further) back up for coronavirus.

Tramping, hunting, and fishing from the beach will still be banned of course. Gotta make sure to fuck over real New Zealanders as much as possible!

Fortunately, in her initial panic after completely dropping the ball and allowing hundreds of coronavirus carriers into the country, there was a council of top men from the medical research side of things who were appointed to consult on these things, and they don't seem to be cooperating.

First off, they've lifted the veil off the absolutely bizarre claims that community transmission was never a big thing, and that basically all cases had been brought in from overseas and not passed on (which again, is Ardern's fault for not actually quarantining or even testing for fever coronavirus carriers coming in and instead depending on 'self-quarantine').

The secret? When they were first denying this was happening, the people supposed to be verifying community transmission could only 'trace' 50 contacts a day. Total. The whole team. The experts realized that they needed to be able to do at least a thousand a day. They were up to 700 a week ago. Will they ever get to doing a thousand? Who knows.

But in conclusion, by simply not developing the facility to confirm cases they have been able to be able to pretend it isn't happening. Good luck getting a coronavirus test without that incredibly underresourced contact tracing team signing off, too! While coronavirus testing rates in New Zealand have been slightly higher than say, the UK or the US, due to the presence of a lot of foreigners who recently travelled overseas in our country (particularly in Auckland) who have been allowed to get tested as a result of that travel we are doing at least as bad as the US on things like contact tracing.

Meanwhile, testing of asymptomatic people literally only began days ago.

Second, they are incapable of tracing cases in any reportable way at all. Information is literally being sent in by fax machine, transcribed into the system as textual 'reports' without metadata, and there's no efficient way to perform reasonable statistical analysis on it all. I'm willing to bet that Kenya and other East African countries have better systems than that.

Should work out great!
 
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Almost forgot today's update: +363/+15+/+115 new cases/deaths/recoveries. 7414 active cases overall. We're also back to testing over 13k samples a day, hope we can reach the promised 20k soon.

EmuWarsVeteran said:
As for ellection rigging that sounds weird to me. I mean, we're no strangers to that over here, but you Pols did pretty well overall I don't see the need to rig shit. Have they really been that bad before the pandemic?
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We've had worse governments for sure, but a politician won't pass up the opportunity for an easy win. Having the election now gives the incumbent significant advantages. Gatherings are banned, so campaigning is pretty much impossible, and a certain part of hardcore opposition voters intend to boycott the election (especially since their candidate is utterly hopeless). In these circumstances Duda easily wins in first round. But it will feel hollow and something is bound to go wrong along the way.

RomanesEuntDomus said:
Wouldn't surprise me if after this is over, we figure out that the lethality rate even in places hard hit like Spain and Italy, turns out to be very, very low and the high number of deaths compared to the number of known cases is due to a shitton of people getting infected without even realizing it.
Even with that in mind, we still had a shitton of people dying the past few weeks cause so many people got sick so quickly, the medical system could not keep up.

And frankly, when it turns out, that the lethality was actually really low, it would be scary to think there was a sickness as contagious but more deadly. Just imagine Ebola with a 2 week delay between being infected and showing symptoms, while you are contagious yourself during half that time. Jesus.
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Sure sounds fun. Or how about an airborne version of rabies? Makes one wonder if there was ever a disease deleterious enough to have driven an entire species extinct.
 
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Michigan, USA

We have updated recovery data, and we have better racial and ZIP code stats for Detroit. The debate over reopening continues, but nothing set for sure yet.

City of Detroit releases Coronavirus data by ZIP code. They also have death rates by race, now. 77% of deaths in Detroit City were Black, [ETA: 5.3% Caucasian, 4.4% other, and 12.9% unknown]. The living population of Detroit City is also 77% Black.
(archive)
(archive - April 18)

Detroit man with transplanted lungs has recovered from Coronavirus. ETA: He was our first confirmed case in the state.
(archive)

SHUTDOWNS
Shelter-in-place order and shutdown of everything non-essential from Tuesday March 24 to Monday April 13. Friday, May 1. (archive) (executive order saved on KF) Travel between primary homes and secondary homes is banned. Gardening sections of stores are closed. (archive - extension). Marijuana shops are open. Tobacco shops are closed (archive). K-12 schools suspended for remainder of year, but alternate learning plans will be implemented (archive) (archive).
Lawsuits against the shutdown order are multiplying (archive). Major protest in Lansing April 15 (A&N thread).
The Big Three Auto manufacturers (Ford, GM, Chrysler) are closing all factories in the USA, putting well over 150,000 workers out of work. This figure does not include workers at supplier factories, which will also be obliged to close. (archive) (archive) (archive). They will be making a small number of parts for emergency vehicles, and production of ventilators, etc. has begun (archive- GM's ventilators, April 17).

ECONOMY AND MISCELLANY
Over 1 million unemployment claims filed = 10% of the total population of the state, nearly 25% of the workforce (Archive - April 16).
Big Brother is watching, and he approves. Massive phone-tracking project reveals Michigan travel down by 45%, compared to 40% nation-wide (website) (news article archive).
Car crashes are down, fatal car crashes are down, and overall death is actually down. (archive - April 12)

FREE STUFF!
Evictions suspended while the state of emergency lasts (archive)
Water will be turned back on for all households while the crisis lasts (archive)

HEALTH CARE
Hydroxychloroquine banned by governor's order (archive). Nevermind LOL! Now she's asking the federal government for it and claiming the ban was a typo in the first place. (archive). Detroit-area hospitals are testing the drug's effectiveness as a preventative on first responders and health-care workers (archive).
Up-to-date count of available hospital beds, etc. in the State (the Detroit area is "Section 2, North and South". (government website)
Detroit field hospital admits first 8 Corona patients. It will only be taking the less-serious cases. No one on ventilators.(archive - April 14)
Another field hospital in Detroit scaled back after drop in cases. Original plan was to open with 1,100 beds. Now they are only going to open with 250, planned to open April 20. (archive - April 11)

LAW AND ORDER
All localities given more discretion to release prisoners early (archive). The State prison system is not currently releasing inmates early.
Lansing (the capitol) police are not physically responding to minor crimes such as larceny, property damage, and break-ins to unoccupied buildings, including garages. Other police are adopting similar policies (archive) (archive).
Detroit crime still down (archive - April 12); Muskegon police report crime is up (archive).
Breaking the lockdown is a misdemeanor, punishable by $1500 fines and 90 days jail time. Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) has stated there will not be a "ramp up" of police enforcement (archive). The attorney general has left it to local law enforcement to close businesses, as her hands are full with price-gougers and con artists (archive).
The police cannot, at present, pull drivers over simply for being out during the shutdown (archive). Local police in the rural north and in Detroit suburbs have alike stated they will not be enforcing parts of the order (archive).

DEATH TOLL

Detroit Metro (pop. 3,860,000 total; 1,796/sq. mi.; 694/sq km):*

23,743 confirmed / 1,912 dead
23,279 confirmed / 1,859 dead yesterday
(i.e. 53 new deaths, down 51 from previous day)
Normal Detroit Metro Death Rate: 104 per day.**

Other Michigan (6,120,000; 65/sq. mi.; 25/sq km):

7,048 confirmed / 396 dead
6,744 confirmed / 368 dead yesterday
(i.e. 28 new deaths, down 2 from previous day)
Normal not-Detroit Death Rate: 167 per day**

All Michigan (9,990,000; 103/sq. mi.; 40/sq km):

30,791 confirmed / 2,308 dead / 3,237 recovered
30,023 confirmed / 2,227 dead yesterday
23,993 confirmed / 1,392 dead / 443 recovered last week
(i.e. 81 new deaths, down 53 from previous day. 916 dead and 2,804 declared recovered since last week)
Normal Michigan Death Rate: 271 per day; 1,897 per week.**
Recovery totals are only updated once per week.

Death toll doubled since: April 9.
We have been locked down since: March 24.

Detroit Metro Daily Deaths Last Seven Days:
73 / 97 / 130 / 129 / 149*** / 104 / 53 = 735***

State Government site, daily - today's archive;
State Gov site, total, includes breakdowns by sex, age, race and ethnicity - today's archive.
*Here defined as the City of Detroit, and Macomb, Oakland, and Wayne Counties, minus state prisoners, who are not counted towards any county's cases, but are kept in a category of their own.
** As of 2018.
*** 65 statewide deaths were added on this day because of an adjustment in reporting standards. Presumably most were in Detroit, but I don't know exactly how many.
Also one Ann Arbor man allegedly killed by his roommate in a Corona-related dispute (archive). The suspect has been released from custody while the investigation continues (archive).
 
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Just Some Other Guy said:
TBF, some leaders have brought this upon themselves. How the hell are you gonna ban the sale of gardening supplies and paint? The adjacent isles are open, why specifically paint?

Our governors in the US should have been smarter and realized a blanket lockdown of the same restrictions across an entire state was going to rile people up. Then throw in vague statements about what the plan is, throw in some arbitrary buying bans, and then have police threaten people by saying things such as "protesting isn't essential". Don't forget to break your own decrees and travel to your personal summer cottage or w/e. You're part of the elite, not a filthy pleb.

You know, I'm just not understanding why the people are getting tired of listening to those in charge. I just can't put my finger on it.
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One of the real failures, I think, has been the lack of an emergency safety net; 1200$ only goes so far, and few Americans have the saving to tank months of quarentine. Of course they will get desperate and decide that working is more important than risking death; They might starve at the rate their savings are eaten through, if they even have savings in the first place.
 
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RomanesEuntDomus said:
Conspiritards still claim this is just the flu (bro) and that if we didn't have this much media attention focused on the sickness, we wouldn't even have noticed...

And I'm sitting here wondering, how much worse it needs to be. Corpses get crammed into ice-skating rings, cause funeral homes can't keep up and hospitals are full to the brim with sick people that need invasive mechanical ventilation.
Yeah. Without the media circus, we would have totally not noticed the fucking refrigerated trucks used to store corpses in a major city.
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Pending the replication and peer review of a study that came out of Stanford University, it's possible that the infection rate for for the Wu-Ping Cough might be 50 to 80 times higher than we previously thought. In the county of around 2,000,000 residents where this test was taken they “found that 2.5 to 4.2% of those tested were positive for antibodies — a number suggesting a far higher past infection rate than the official count."

This would mean that there could potentially be around 48,000 to 81,000 infected people in that county, even though the county only has 958 reported cases. The concept of "it's just a flu bro" could be much closer to reality than people might have thought, if their study of around 3,300 people came back with a 2.5 to 4.2% presence of antibodies. This would mean that the mortality rate is significantly lower than all of the models had been pushing out the door, and puts it right next door to a fairly rough flu season.

Not that I'd be terribly surprised given that these are the same models that kept needing constant revisions like this:

EVxELz3X0AUOaFx.jpg
 
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Vajze Shqiptare said:
Does anyone know any other papers like this? Apparently the NIH is doing studies on this.

www.bostonglobe.com

Nearly a third of 200 blood samples taken in Chelsea show exposure to coronavirus - The Boston Globe

A Mass. General researcher says the results point to a « raging epidemic, » but may also indicate the city is further along the disease curve than some other municipalities.
www.bostonglobe.com www.bostonglobe.com
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Something like this?

COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California

Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a community...
www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org

We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County. Methods On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using a lateral flow immunoassay. Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics. We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity. We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer's data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both. Results The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
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EDIT: Bah, just got ninja'd.
 
ConfederateIrishman said:
One of the real failures, I think, has been the lack of an emergency safety net; 1200$ only goes so far, and few Americans have the saving to tank months of quarentine. Of course they will get desperate and decide that working is more important than risking death; They might starve at the rate their savings are eaten through, if they even have savings in the first place.
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The safety net issue is intertwined with the "months of quarantine' issue. For a 2 week to 1 month lockdown, things were fine. Both because of available resources and people's willingness to deal with it.

The big problem that is starting to show its head is that a 1 month quarantine and a 2 month quarantine is fundamentally different in many ways. The 1 month can easily be pitched as a stop-gap to prevent hospital overloading while allowing data to be gathered, treatments to be searched for, supplies to be produced, and supply production to be spooled up as needed. All of that has been done. We have vastly better data about how things are going (Such as the multiple recent studies showing that the number of people who get the disease is 50 times what was detected, indicated that the seriousness of the disease is tiny compared to where it was a month ago), we've caught up on our supplies for the most part, and our production capacity for supplies is spooled up quite well.

So the 1 month lockdown has performed its tasks, and done so admirably.

A 2 month lockdown, however, can't even successfully pitch a purpose to the people. What is it supposed to accomplish? We arn't going to have a vaccine in another month. Treatments are unlikely to improve much above what we've already figured out. Maybe there is an argument for antibody testing being massively deployed and passes handed out, but that just means that after a 2 month lockdown things will open up for what, 5 to 10% of people? Its not a pitch for a 2 month lockdown, its a pitch for a much, much longer one.

That is, in my mind, the main problem here: There is no sales pitch I can see for 1 more month of lockdown. A 2 YEAR lockdown would have some purposes it could point to: some things it could claim it is trying to accomplish, but a 2 month lockdown just reeks of bureaucrats being unable to make decisions because they're bureaucrats.
 
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The reports of wider spread infection that didn't come to light because those people were not sick enough to seek medical help or a test still don't support the "it's just a flu bro" theory. So the death rate vs infected may be lower but it's still way more deaths because the regular flu infects (as well as kills) fewer people.

The regular human flu is not nearly as infectious as PoohFlu.
 
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So have any experts confirmed that this virus stands no chance of causing any long term/permanent disease after you survive it or does it have the possibility of cropping up later down the line creating some sort of chronic disease? The fact its novel and we only really have data on it for 4 months makes me weary about wanting to get back to work with the assumption I could contract it then have to carry covids baggage for the long term.
 
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