Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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ConfederateIrishman said:
Interesting; Someone on 4chan had the same theory, but they had no proof beyond thinking the sudden rallies + specific Trump tweets had coincidental timing.
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Gee it's like theres a way for people to communicate with other people easily from miles and miles away in some form of notice board where people could get inspired to do a similar idea, a forum of sorts to socialize about shit like the media.

But whatever could that be?
:thinking:
Also, does anyone have a chart of infected and recovery cases worldwide only? I wanna infer the average recovery time via math hedge wizardry.
 
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Wallace said:
Something like this?

COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California

Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a community...
www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org



EDIT: Bah, just got ninja'd.
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Yeah, I had seen the Santa Clara one and one had been done in Kansas. I think more will come out in the next week and month from all over Europe and the US showing such.
 
archive link

brain, lungs, liver, kidney and heart. blood flow is affected. they don't mention the reproductive organs here but they are also affected the same process.

edit: and diarrhea. but I've been saying that since my first post, it hits the gut lining hard in half of people, and gives most people the trots.

we are finding odd reactions just under the epidermis as well.

we are no longer overloaded, just fully loaded, so a big variety of samples in storage now. there's a clinical research group going through them.
 
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Just Some Other Guy said:
TBF, some leaders have brought this upon themselves. How the hell are you gonna ban the sale of gardening supplies and paint? The adjacent isles are open, why specifically paint?

Our governors in the US should have been smarter and realized a blanket lockdown of the same restrictions across an entire state was going to rile people up. Then throw in vague statements about what the plan is, throw in some arbitrary buying bans, and then have police threaten people by saying things such as "protesting isn't essential". Don't forget to break your own decrees and travel to your personal summer cottage or w/e. You're part of the elite, not a filthy pleb.

You know, I'm just not understanding why the people are getting tired of listening to those in charge. I just can't put my finger on it.
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Wait over there too?! Over here supermarkets and shops that send your stuff home are allowed to do whatever they want but the only part of our economy outside of turist shit that hasn't been allowed to reopen is in-person (again they can still send it to your home if you buy by phone or online) paint and hardware stores. We've been memeing it to hell and back and making up stories of evil cans of paint working for the chinese to spread corona. Or our president having a personal vendetta against ovens painted random colors. Wtf is going on with that shit?

Barnard said:
Almost forgot today's update: +363/+15+/+115 new cases/deaths/recoveries. 7414 active cases overall. We're also back to testing over 13k samples a day, hope we can reach the promised 20k soon.


We've had worse governments for sure, but a politician won't pass up the opportunity for an easy win. Having the election now gives the incumbent significant advantages. Gatherings are banned, so campaigning is pretty much impossible, and a certain part of hardcore opposition voters intend to boycott the election (especially since their candidate is utterly hopeless). In these circumstances Duda easily wins in first round. But it will feel hollow and something is bound to go wrong along the way.


Sure sounds fun. Or how about an airborne version of rabies? Makes one wonder if there was ever a disease deleterious enough to have driven an entire species extinct.
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Oh many a risk-of-extinction species has gotten finished off by random shit. Our iberian ibex almost got murdered by fucking Scabies of all thing and the sniffles finished off their pyrinean counterpart. So yeah, even the dumbest shit can finish off a species.

Also: with the abtibiotic resistants on the rise... shit'll keep getting fun if we don't put a stop to the third world bullshit.

CeleryStalks said:
Michigan, USA

We have updated recovery data, and we have better racial and ZIP code stats for Detroit. The debate over reopening continues, but nothing set for sure yet.

City of Detroit releases Coronavirus data by ZIP code. They also have death rates by race, now. 77% of deaths in Detroit City were Black, [ETA: 5.3% Caucasian, 4.4% other, and 12.9% unknown]. The living population of Detroit City is also 77% Black.
(archive)
(archive - April 18)

Detroit man with transplanted lungs has recovered from Coronavirus. ETA: He was our first confirmed case in the state.
(archive)

SHUTDOWNS
Shelter-in-place order and shutdown of everything non-essential from Tuesday March 24 to Monday April 13. Friday, May 1. (archive) (executive order saved on KF) Travel between primary homes and secondary homes is banned. Gardening sections of stores are closed. (archive - extension). Marijuana shops are open. Tobacco shops are closed (archive). K-12 schools suspended for remainder of year, but alternate learning plans will be implemented (archive) (archive).
Lawsuits against the shutdown order are multiplying (archive). Major protest in Lansing April 15 (A&N thread).
The Big Three Auto manufacturers (Ford, GM, Chrysler) are closing all factories in the USA, putting well over 150,000 workers out of work. This figure does not include workers at supplier factories, which will also be obliged to close. (archive) (archive) (archive). They will be making a small number of parts for emergency vehicles, and production of ventilators, etc. has begun (archive- GM's ventilators, April 17).

ECONOMY AND MISCELLANY
Over 1 million unemployment claims filed = 10% of the total population of the state, nearly 25% of the workforce (Archive - April 16).
Big Brother is watching, and he approves. Massive phone-tracking project reveals Michigan travel down by 45%, compared to 40% nation-wide (website) (news article archive).
Car crashes are down, fatal car crashes are down, and overall death is actually down. (archive - April 12)

FREE STUFF!
Evictions suspended while the state of emergency lasts (archive)
Water will be turned back on for all households while the crisis lasts (archive)

HEALTH CARE
Hydroxychloroquine banned by governor's order (archive). Nevermind LOL! Now she's asking the federal government for it and claiming the ban was a typo in the first place. (archive). Detroit-area hospitals are testing the drug's effectiveness as a preventative on first responders and health-care workers (archive).
Up-to-date count of available hospital beds, etc. in the State (the Detroit area is "Section 2, North and South". (government website)
Detroit field hospital admits first 8 Corona patients. It will only be taking the less-serious cases. No one on ventilators.(archive - April 14)
Another field hospital in Detroit scaled back after drop in cases. Original plan was to open with 1,100 beds. Now they are only going to open with 250, planned to open April 20. (archive - April 11)

LAW AND ORDER
All localities given more discretion to release prisoners early (archive). The State prison system is not currently releasing inmates early.
Lansing (the capitol) police are not physically responding to minor crimes such as larceny, property damage, and break-ins to unoccupied buildings, including garages. Other police are adopting similar policies (archive) (archive).
Detroit crime still down (archive - April 12); Muskegon police report crime is up (archive).
Breaking the lockdown is a misdemeanor, punishable by $1500 fines and 90 days jail time. Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) has stated there will not be a "ramp up" of police enforcement (archive). The attorney general has left it to local law enforcement to close businesses, as her hands are full with price-gougers and con artists (archive).
The police cannot, at present, pull drivers over simply for being out during the shutdown (archive). Local police in the rural north and in Detroit suburbs have alike stated they will not be enforcing parts of the order (archive).

DEATH TOLL

Detroit Metro (pop. 3,860,000 total; 1,796/sq. mi.; 694/sq km):*

23,743 confirmed / 1,912 dead
23,279 confirmed / 1,859 dead yesterday
(i.e. 53 new deaths, down 51 from previous day)
Normal Detroit Metro Death Rate: 104 per day.**

Other Michigan (6,120,000; 65/sq. mi.; 25/sq km):

7,048 confirmed / 396 dead
6,744 confirmed / 368 dead yesterday
(i.e. 28 new deaths, down 2 from previous day)
Normal not-Detroit Death Rate: 167 per day**

All Michigan (9,990,000; 103/sq. mi.; 40/sq km):

30,791 confirmed / 2,308 dead / 3,237 recovered
30,023 confirmed / 2,227 dead yesterday
23,993 confirmed / 1,392 dead / 443 recovered last week
(i.e. 81 new deaths, down 53 from previous day. 916 dead and 2,804 declared recovered since last week)
Normal Michigan Death Rate: 271 per day; 1,897 per week.**
Recovery totals are only updated once per week.

Death toll doubled since: April 9.
We have been locked down since: March 24.

Detroit Metro Daily Deaths Last Seven Days:
73 / 97 / 130 / 129 / 149*** / 104 / 53 = 735***

State Government site, daily - today's archive;
State Gov site, total, includes breakdowns by sex, age, race and ethnicity - today's archive.
*Here defined as the City of Detroit, and Macomb, Oakland, and Wayne Counties, minus state prisoners, who are not counted towards any county's cases, but are kept in a category of their own.
** As of 2018.
*** 65 statewide deaths were added on this day because of an adjustment in reporting standards. Presumably most were in Detroit, but I don't know exactly how many.
Also one Ann Arbor man allegedly killed by his roommate in a Corona-related dispute (archive). The suspect has been released from custody while the investigation continues (archive).
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Do you allways add the Ann Arbor part as an injokeor are the links new every time? My memory ain't good enough but I swear I read that part many times.
 
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Ghost In The Rain said:
The safety net issue is intertwined with the "months of quarantine' issue. For a 2 week to 1 month lockdown, things were fine. Both because of available resources and people's willingness to deal with it.

The big problem that is starting to show its head is that a 1 month quarantine and a 2 month quarantine is fundamentally different in many ways. The 1 month can easily be pitched as a stop-gap to prevent hospital overloading while allowing data to be gathered, treatments to be searched for, supplies to be produced, and supply production to be spooled up as needed. All of that has been done. We have vastly better data about how things are going (Such as the multiple recent studies showing that the number of people who get the disease is 50 times what was detected, indicated that the seriousness of the disease is tiny compared to where it was a month ago), we've caught up on our supplies for the most part, and our production capacity for supplies is spooled up quite well.

So the 1 month lockdown has performed its tasks, and done so admirably.

A 2 month lockdown, however, can't even successfully pitch a purpose to the people. What is it supposed to accomplish? We arn't going to have a vaccine in another month. Treatments are unlikely to improve much above what we've already figured out. Maybe there is an argument for antibody testing being massively deployed and passes handed out, but that just means that after a 2 month lockdown things will open up for what, 5 to 10% of people? Its not a pitch for a 2 month lockdown, its a pitch for a much, much longer one.

That is, in my mind, the main problem here: There is no sales pitch I can see for 1 more month of lockdown. A 2 YEAR lockdown would have some purposes it could point to: some things it could claim it is trying to accomplish, but a 2 month lockdown just reeks of bureaucrats being unable to make decisions because they're bureaucrats.
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The harsher the quarantine, the harder the pushback. If these politicians are smart, they'd be looking for any way to start easing the burden of house arrest. Most are not and you have one insane woman in Michigan believing she's the reincarnation of Enver Hoxha.

The politicians are sowing the wind. Do they not understand this? They don't have to, if they would have just some compassion and common sense. Seems like President Trump is about the only one that has any compassion and common sense at all. My state, from the governor on down to the county board of supervisors, has none. Should these politicians reap the whirlwind, there should be no sympathy at all for them. And the next time a pandemic/calamity happens, people will remember how they were treated and refuse to participate. The trust is being lost and once lost is most difficult to regain.
 
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iterator said:
Noted stupid bitch Jacinda Ardern is teasing opening New Zealand (further) back up for coronavirus.

Tramping, hunting, and fishing from the beach will still be banned of course. Gotta make sure to fuck over real New Zealanders as much as possible!

Fortunately, in her initial panic after completely dropping the ball and allowing hundreds of coronavirus carriers into the country, there was a council of top men from the medical research side of things who were appointed to consult on these things, and they don't seem to be cooperating.

First off, they've lifted the veil off the absolutely bizarre claims that community transmission was never a big thing, and that basically all cases had been brought in from overseas and not passed on (which again, is Ardern's fault for not actually quarantining or even testing for fever coronavirus carriers coming in and instead depending on 'self-quarantine').

The secret? When they were first denying this was happening, the people supposed to be verifying community transmission could only 'trace' 50 contacts a day. Total. The whole team. The experts realized that they needed to be able to do [bat least[/b a thousand a day. They were up to 700 a week ago. Will they ever get to doing a thousand? Who knows.

But in conclusion, by simply not developing the facility to confirm cases they have been able to be able to pretend it isn't happening. Good luck getting a coronavirus test without that incredibly underresourced contact tracing team signing off, too! While coronavirus testing rates in New Zealand have been slightly higher than say, the UK or the US, due to the presence of a lot of foreigners who recently travelled overseas in our country (particularly in Auckland) who have been allowed to get tested as a result of that travel we are doing at least as bad as the US on things like contact tracing.

Meanwhile, testing of asymptomatic people literally only began days ago.

Second, they are incapable of tracing cases in any reportable way at all. Information is literally being sent in by fax machine, transcribed into the system as textual 'reports' without metadata, and there's no efficient way to perform reasonable statistical analysis on it all. I'm willing to bet that Kenya and other East African countries have better systems than that.

Should work out great!
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And I thought the New Zealand shooting was the doom and gloom of New Zealand. But no! It's the virus that's killing folks over there in New Zealand. I wonder if our New Zealand shooter was happy that a virus is killing its people faster than his bullets.
 
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EmuWarsVeteran said:
Do you allways add the Ann Arbor part as an injokeor are the links new every time? My memory ain't good enough but I swear I read that part many times.
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It's just an in-joke. I haven't seen any updates on his story lately, so the links are the same old, same old. I think when I started including it, I was expecting there would be more murders/suicides, and wanted to keep track of them, too. But if there have been, I haven't seen any news articles about them.
I did see and post a news article the other day about a Michigan man who committed suicide, and the autopsy found that he had Corona, so they counted him towards the death toll. I thought about mentioning him along with the Ann Arbor case, but decided against it, in case they ever took him out of the statistics without any announcement.
 
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afternoon_tea said:
It sounds like there is much more goodwill towards fellow countrymen in Spain, the U.S. has a huge problem with animosity between different regions. People are taking a lot of glee in the suffering of their fellow Americans here, we're very divided. This isn't something new, but this pandemic is bringing it to a head in a lot of ugly ways.

It's pretty demoralizing honestly.
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EmuWarsVeteran said:
Hahahhahahaha. Dude. You have not seen how catalonians and andalusians treat each other if you think spain's unified. And madrid did the same fucking thing as NY with the exception that unlike NY our gov and opposition took their side and syphoned a fuckton of medical supplies that were needed elsewhere, specially ventilator, we still got a ventilator shortage over here actually. You can go a few pages back and you'll see my rants on that, shit got scary.

Point is, honestly, by european standards we're the most divided. Fuck we got Autonomous communities which are basically like your states, we got gypsies that are similar to your niggas. Our PP's done mostly the same as your Dems. Morocco is to us what Mexico is to you. Portugal is our Canada. Basically spain is burgerland lite.

But it does seem like the "lite" part involves our issues being lessened significantly, and I find that fascinating. On prior pages I linked to stats showing spain basically has less criminality, less suicides, less antisocial tendencies, less drug addiction... basically less of everything stereotypically bad. Yet you have a SIGNIFICANTLY better economy, way less unemployed, less poverty, economically you make us look like we're the 3rd fucking world.

I honestly don't get it. It's like despite america being a bigger, more powerful, economically more stable, generally just objectively better country, instead of that being a source of pride and bringing you together, you've found everincreasingly strange reasons to be more and more polarized, hateful, criminal and violent to each other.

And I guess in a way some will just say "bad times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, weak men create bad times" like they always do but... I don't know that seems way too reductive to me. Humans are better than that, I like to think they are at least. There has to be more behind why america is imploding like this despite being possibly the best country in the world. But by the life of me I don't know what the reason actually is.
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Go look at MovieBob's thread, and realize while he takes it to the autistic extreme, his sentiment is not unique or even uncommon. The coasts and large cities hate the rest of the country, and have for years. Likewise, whites have been shat on for like eight years in the media, but not because of some sinister conspiracy like the /pol/tards believe. The reason is because they were the only group available to stereotype and not be dragged for it. If a white person complained, they were racist, and non-whites were called Uncle Toms. I said to my friends when it first started, that shit was going to led to an increase in actual racism, which it did.
 
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Page 1445 - the year of a really huge plague in Europe.

1587254625391.png


Trudeau will likely not see any Fallout.
 
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737 MAX Stan Account said:
This kills the Democrat

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“It’s America’s unfinished business -- we’re free, but not equal,” civil rights leader Rev. Jesse Jackson told the AP. “There’s a reality check that has been brought by the coronavirus, that exposes the weakness and the opportunity.”

This week, Jackson’s Rainbow PUSH Coalition and the National Medical Association, a group representing African American physicians and patients, released a joint public health strategy calling for better COVID-19 testing and treatment data. The groups also urged officials to provide better protections for incarcerated populations and to recruit more African Americans to the medical field.

Jackson also expressed support for a national commission to study the black COVID-19 toll modeled after the Kerner Commission, which studied the root causes of race riots in African American communities in the 1960s and made policy recommendations to prevent future unrest.
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Aka give black "community leaders" like Jackson money so they shut up and stop instigating social unrest.
 
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EmuWarsVeteran said:
I honestly don't get it. It's like despite america being a bigger, more powerful, economically more stable, generally just objectively better country, instead of that being a source of pride and bringing you together, you've found everincreasingly strange reasons to be more and more polarized, hateful, criminal and violent to each other.
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It really depends on the area. Most of the U.S. is just like any country where there's not a war going on or some other horrendous shit.
 
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For all of you who are wondering about whether Americans are still social-distancing and how much lockdowns are being honored or broken, consider checking out this website that tracks a massive number of cell phones.
www.unacast.com

Covid-19 Social Distancing Scoreboard — Unacast

Social distancing is seen as the most effective way of slowing the spread of the virus causing COVID-19, and is strongly advised by the World Health Organization and the CDC. At Unacast, we wanted to understand which areas of the country are best at exhibiting social distancing behavior. Our...
www.unacast.com www.unacast.com
(archive)

If I'm reading the graph right, travel dropped drastically in the second half of March and has stayed about the same since then. There is also a major drop in travel on weekends after lockdowns were ordered, a drop which does not show up before the lockdowns.

Unacast April 18.png
 
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EmuWarsVeteran said:
Oh many a risk-of-extinction species has gotten finished off by random shit. Our iberian ibex almost got murdered by fucking Scabies of all thing and the sniffles finished off their pyrinean counterpart. So yeah, even the dumbest shit can finish off a species.
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If the species is down close to the minimum viable population then I guess anything can wipe it out.

Humans are hardly at risk of that though. The minimum viable population is 10,000 or so and there are 7.6 billion of us.

Even something like the Black Death which killed 30-60% of a much smaller population didn't even come close to wiping us out.

Slap47 said:
Page 1445 - the year of a really huge plague in Europe.
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Imagine the wailing and gnashing of teeth if Canadians elected a populist like Maxime Bernier as PM. It'd be greater than Brexit, greater even than Trump.
 
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I think the big issue with relaxing quarantines is that being sick with covid even mildly is a bitch and it takes forever to go away. Even if people were willing to go back to work they legit can't afford to get sick and stay home for the weeks it takes to get better. If the politicians really wanted non-essentials to get back in the game they're going to need to do something about sick leave policy. Shame that sick leave bill died in the Senate though.
Unog said:
It really depends on the area. Most of the U.S. is just like any country where there's not a war going on or some other horrendous shit.
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Also Americans love to talk big on the internet. We're much tamer in person.
 
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ConfederateIrishman said:
One of the real failures, I think, has been the lack of an emergency safety net; 1200$ only goes so far, and few Americans have the saving to tank months of quarentine. Of course they will get desperate and decide that working is more important than risking death; They might starve at the rate their savings are eaten through, if they even have savings in the first place.
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Yeah, I can only imagine how rough that gets. Too many have a lax attitude when it comes to savings. Got a friend who saw everything past bills as "spending cash". Then his crappy beat up f150 would take a shit and he wouldn't have the cash to fix it up. Like come on man, you need that truck to get to work, at least save something up for that.

I'm sure even some people with savings still want to work. Just because you have it doesn't mean you want to see it dwindle over something as.....dubious....as this. That could have been saving up for a down payment on a house or something. Now has the possibility of going *poof* because even though you live on the opposite side of the state from an outbreak city you get held to the same degree of lockdown.
 
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