Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[MrBlueSocks]

Had there been any further talk of what’s happening in patients blood? Just sperging about this in the treatment thread but will copy it here... I also think there’s a problem with oxygenation. Maybe the haemoglobin is in a state where it’s unable to carry oxygen, or unable to release that oxygen to tissues AND some patients are seeing RBC levels drop as well. The combination, together with viral pneumonia and the layer of gunk coating the alveoli, is enough to put you into a pretty bad state.

It throws up some interesting targets - like cytochrome b5 reductase, G6pd again, but really someone needs to be looking at these patients blood. What percentage of haem is in the met form? Why is it doing that? What’s causing it? There’s form for some viruses causing oxidative haemolysis. Hep E does it and the effect is compounded in g6pd deficiency.
These patients seem to be in a state of oxidative stress. If that precedes the respiratory issues /or arises separately or in parallel it’d explain why Vents have such a poor success rate. The blood either can’t pick the oxygen up or it can’t release it to the tissues. We are missing something fundamental about how this virus kills people.

In your opinion, is it likely that active research is being done now on the exact mechanism of the illness as you mentioned. Blood issues, whatever?
Or are they likely to be still firefighting and rushing around. Are there too many interesting lines of enquirey for the number of suitable research teams.
You are in the medical lab research field , so you might have heard on the grapevine if anybody's looking at this.

I know we like to keep patting ourselves on our backs in this thread for being ahead of the curve, but by now the bigger organisations of states should have been fired up and pointed in the right direction.

 

[Not Really Here]

In your opinion, is it likely that active research is being done now on the exact mechanism of the illness as you mentioned. Blood issues, whatever?
Or are they likely to be still firefighting and rushing around. Are there too many interesting lines of enquirey for the number of suitable research teams.
You are in the medical lab research field , so you might have heard on the grapevine if anybody's looking at this.

I know we like to keep patting ourselves on our backs in this thread for being ahead of the curve, but by now the bigger organisations of states should have been fired up and pointed in the right direction.

Never underestimate how slowly and stupidly governments can react.

 

[Wallace]

In your opinion, is it likely that active research is being done now on the exact mechanism of the illness as you mentioned. Blood issues, whatever?
Or are they likely to be still firefighting and rushing around. Are there too many interesting lines of enquirey for the number of suitable research teams.

I read a paper that used a computer model to suggest that viral proteins target the heme group and yank the iron out of it. That would explain why you get respiratory distress if your blood can no longer carry oxygen and carbon dioxide. The same paper also suggested that chloroquine could inhibit this reaction. Again, the is a computer model based upon predicted behavior of these proteins, so there's no guarantee this is true.

Apart from in silico tests, do we have a reliable animal model? That would be the best test.

 

[MrBlueSocks]

Never underestimate how slowly and stupidly governments can react.

I know how they react normally. It takes years of pointless meetings without any decisions being made, slowly fumbling towards the ill defined goal. But in my experience in urgent situations the problem will make it's way up the chain to the right desk, someone with authority and ability, and he bashes heads to get shit done. "You, fix it! You, stop getting in his way"
The problem is that this often only works for priority number one. It doesn't handle multi faceted issues.

Right now , priority was ramping up the health care capability and implementing lockdown. So they'll probably just go with existing treaments, and not think this far outside the box?

 

[pull over dat ass too fat]

Aaaaaaannnnnnd we're back to the actual source of the issue, demand dropping and production not reacting quickly enough.

Oh, you mean the thing that sparked the oil price war?
no shit the price war (the one between Saudi Arabia and Russia, y'know) was a reaction to falling demand. you don't just choose to ruin your economy for fun. you were trying to imply that Saudi Arabia and Russia didn't have a price war to begin with and that all countries are just equally competing to the tune of supply/demand, which is just wrong. every fucking party involved acknowledges that Saudi Arabia and Russia sparked an aggressive oil price war, including Saudi Arabia and Russia themselves lmao. This isn't some sort of secret, it's publicly acknowledged that this happened. It's not a coincidence that the day oil first took the steep dive of over -60% was after talks between Russia and Saudi Arabia about controlling the oil market . Russia literally cannot stop producing oil, I think their rigs will freeze or some shit. And obviously Saudi Arabia's economy is propped up on oil. So they both took desperate measures to control the space and drastically reduced prices while continuing to produce far further than what the real demand required (and yes, the overproduction aspect has since been reconciled peacefully, but there's still a huge surplus to contend with). And they went back and forth doing this for days, until prices were ridiculously low. And yes, every other oil producer in the world had to lower prices too, because who the fuck would buy oil for the normal price when the Saudis are practically giving it away? I know you feel required to dEbAtE or some shit because you got called you out, but just take the L.

How the Russian-Saudi Oil War Went Awry—for Putin Most of All

Unwilling to tap his country’s financial reserves, and facing a pandemic and ever-worsening oil prices, Putin became inclined to make a deal, but the details reveal its dangers for Russia.

www.newyorker.com

That might be the reason why this hasn't yet turned into a complete SHTF moment.

I personally don't think it's likely to go lower than what it closed at, but it won't just make an instant recovery when there's a reason no one was buying. The reason it hasn't turned into a SHTF moment yet is because the stock market is inflated from infinite QE. But that doesn't fix the supply/demand issue. It's just concealing what's happening under the hood and maybe delaying things for a bit longer.

At least historically, when inflationary/deflationary periods are spurred on by real, physical supply and demand issues, it can be difficult to combat with monetary policy. Zimbabwe didn't get their "one hundred trillion dollar" bill from bad central bank management, it was because there was a massive food shortage. Taking money out of circulation doesn't take away the demand for bread. Similarly, propping up a bunch of failing businesses with money injections doesn't really increase consumer buying or do anything about the surplus, which is the cause of the problem to begin with. The real value of the dollar is driven by supply and demand and will adjust accordingly, so structural problems in supply and demand supersede monetary policy imo.

I don't really know when things will actually get bad, but I'd be surprised if they don't. It'd be naive to actually believe that the economy is bullish. I'd even go so far as to say that the asset market has completely decoupled from economic reality.

 

[CeleryStalks]

Michigan, USA

Still waiting for the official re-opening plan. In the meantime, some small news:

Detroit to begin offering testing to all essential workers, and anyone with symptoms.

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/detroit-to-expand-coronavirus-testing-to-any-resident-with-symptoms-essential-workers-in-city.html

(archive)

Michigan greenhouses and garden centers submit safe re-opening plan to Governor Whitmer (D).

Michigan greenhouses, garden centers submit May 1 reopening plan to governor

Michigan's greenhouses and garden centers want to be part of the state's first phase of business reopenings.

www.mlive.com

(archive)

Spoiler: Michigan Recap

SHUTDOWNS
Shelter-in-place order and shutdown of everything non-essential from Tuesday March 24 to Monday April 13. Friday, May 1. (archive) (executive order saved on KF) Travel between primary homes and secondary homes is banned. Gardening sections of stores are closed. (archive - extension). Marijuana shops are open. Tobacco shops are closed (archive). K-12 schools suspended for remainder of year, but alternate learning plans will be implemented (archive) (archive).
Lawsuits against the shutdown order are multiplying (archive). Major protest in Lansing April 15 (A&N thread).
The Big Three Auto manufacturers (Ford, GM, Chrysler) are closing all factories in the USA, putting well over 150,000 workers out of work. This figure does not include workers at supplier factories, which will also be obliged to close. (archive) (archive) (archive). They will be making a small number of parts for emergency vehicles, and production of ventilators, etc. has begun (archive- GM's ventilators, April 17).

ECONOMY AND MISCELLANY
Over 1 million unemployment claims filed = 10% of the total population of the state, nearly 25% of the workforce (Archive - April 16).
Big Brother is watching, and he approves. Massive phone-tracking project reveals Michigan travel down by 45%, compared to 40% nation-wide (website) (news article archive).
Car crashes are down, fatal car crashes are down, and overall death is actually down. (archive - April 12)

FREE STUFF!
Evictions suspended while the state of emergency lasts (archive)
Water will be turned back on for all households while the crisis lasts (archive)

HEALTH CARE
Hydroxychloroquine banned by governor's order (archive). Nevermind LOL! Now she's asking the federal government for it and claiming the ban was a typo in the first place. (archive). Detroit-area hospitals are testing the drug's effectiveness as a preventative on first responders and health-care workers (archive).
Up-to-date count of available hospital beds, etc. in the State (the Detroit area is "Section 2, North and South.")(government website)
Detroit field hospital admits first 8 Corona patients. It will only be taking the less-serious cases. No one on ventilators.(archive - April 14)
Another field hospital in Detroit scaled back after drop in cases. Original plan was to open with 1,100 beds. Now they are only going to open with 250, planned to open April 20. (archive - April 11)

LAW AND ORDER
All localities given more discretion to release prisoners early (archive). The State prison system is not currently releasing inmates early.
Lansing (the capitol) police are not physically responding to minor crimes such as larceny, property damage, and break-ins to unoccupied buildings, including garages. Other police are adopting similar policies (archive) (archive).
Detroit crime still down (archive - April 12); Muskegon police report crime is up (archive).
Breaking the lockdown is a misdemeanor, punishable by $1500 fines and 90 days jail time. Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) has stated there will not be a "ramp up" of police enforcement (archive). The attorney general has left it to local law enforcement to close businesses, as her hands are full with price-gougers and con artists (archive).
The police cannot, at present, pull drivers over simply for being out during the shutdown (archive). Local police in the rural north and in Detroit suburbs have alike stated they will not be enforcing parts of the order (archive).

DEATH TOLL

Detroit Metro (pop. 3,860,000 total; 1,796/sq. mi.; 694/sq km):*

24,515 confirmed / 2,030 dead
24,161 confirmed / 1,981 dead yesterday
(i.e. 49 new deaths, down 20 from previous day)
Normal Detroit Metro Death Rate: 104 per day.**

Other Michigan (6,120,000; 65/sq. mi.; 25/sq km):

7,485 confirmed / 438 dead
7,263 confirmed / 410 dead yesterday
(i.e. 28 new deaths, up 14 from previous day)
Normal not-Detroit Death Rate: 167 per day**

All Michigan (9,990,000; 103/sq. mi.; 40/sq km):

32,000 confirmed / 2,468 dead
31,424 confirmed / 2,391 dead yesterday
(i.e. 77 new deaths, down 6 from previous day.)
Normal Michigan Death Rate: 271 per day.**

Death toll doubled since: April 9.
We have been locked down since: March 24.

Detroit Metro Daily Deaths Last Seven Days:
130 / 129 / 149*** / 104 / 53 / 69 / 49 = 683***

State Government site, daily - today's archive;
State Gov site, total, includes breakdowns by sex, age, race and ethnicity - today's archive.
*Here defined as the City of Detroit, and Macomb, Oakland, and Wayne Counties, minus state prisoners, who are not counted towards any county's cases, but are kept in a category of their own.
** As of 2018.
*** 65 statewide deaths were added on this day because of an adjustment in reporting standards. Presumably most were in Detroit, but I don't know exactly how many.
Also one Ann Arbor man allegedly killed by his roommate in a Corona-related dispute (archive). The suspect has been released from custody while the investigation continues (archive).

 

[Not Really Here]

I know how they react normally. It takes years of pointless meetings without any decisions being made, slowly fumbling towards the ill defined goal. But in my experience in urgent situations the problem will make it's way up the chain to the right desk, someone with authority and ability, and he bashes heads to get shit done. "You, fix it! You, stop getting in his way"
The problem is that this often only works for priority number one. It doesn't handle multi faceted issues.

Right now , priority was ramping up the health care capability and implementing lockdown. So they'll probably just go with existing treaments, and not think this far outside the box?

In the US they have shut down most medical care to reserve space for WuFlu cases.
Even in states with under 1,000 total cases.
California with almost the population of the UK is shut down with under 1,100 dead.

The decision makers aren't being rational at all so predicting what they are actually doing rn? *shrugs*

 

[Barnard]

Belated, brief Polish update: +306/+20/+113 new cases/deaths/recoveries. So back to pretty low numbers after yesterday's spike. Only 10k daily tests though. I don't get what's the point of only using half our daily capability. We have a decent stockpile of tests and we're producing 150k more per week, why not at least test some random population samples to see how many asymptomatic carriers there are?

There's not much else to say, nothing really going on except more bitching about the election. Not sure how much the oil debacle is going to affect us, but I guess the likes of Norway are screwed?

 

[Not Really Here]

It's not a panic reaction, it's just been kept afloat in a zombielike state by the US gov buying it up. this shit is a burden to store now. There's an oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. This caused a rapid & large surplus in oil for other countries which produce oil. The final collapse was inevitable, the US was just trying to lighten/delay the fall imo.

You claim the supposed ''''''price war'''''''' caused the surplus in oil-

Oh, you mean the thing that sparked the oil price war?
no shit the price war (the one between Saudi Arabia and Russia, y'know) was a reaction to falling demand.

Here you finally seem to acknowledge that the "falling demand" created the "large surplus" not the aforementioned "oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia".
Like I said at the start, this should have happened 2 months ago when anyone with a brain could see a glut coming.

I know you feel required to dEbAtE or some shit because you got called you out, but just take the L.

You get the cause and effect reversed and I "just take the L"? Cool story bro.

You seem to think this is some total oil crash but-

No one else thinks they need to dump from June on.
But I'm for bed, apparently I need some sleep to understand that effect comes before cause.

 

[Kiwi Lime Pie]

Because that's not creepy. I can't help but notice that none of you journalists and none of these social media companies care that much when people organize these huge "Rent Strikes" that violate this shit, and yet when it's a protest that goes against the established narrative, it has to be crushed underneath a boot.

Not only that, but people seem to be quick to jump on the anti-rent bandwagon. Sure, it makes sense for people whose work schedules have been indefinitely reduced to seek some sort of relief, and most people won't be sympathetic to either slum lords who let their property turn in vermin hovels or management companies looking to squeeze maximum rents out of their properties. However, these protestors don't seem to get that many landlords are average people that use their net rental earnings to supplement their income -- especially now if their primary income source has been reduced or eliminated.

I swear if we learn nothing else from this, it’s that the moment somebody is put forth as an “expert” they should immediately be hung from the nearest tree. “Expert” is so clearly synonymous with “Autist with no common sense”.

At this point , anything being asserted by an "expert" now results in a "pressing X to doubt" instinctive response, especially when different experts report such diametrically-opposed information.

This, I think, is what frustrates the average person trying to cope with what's going on right now. Sure, COVID-19 needs to be dealt with and done so with minimum consequences to the population. However, the conflicting statements of "experts" and the lack of any sort of exit strategy by elected elected officials makes it more difficult to agree to these restrictions when it looks like there's no end in sight while bills pile up and money eventually dries out.

- My friend-who-works-for-a-college says they're discussing a hybrid program for the fall. Kids would come back to the dorms, but do a lot of classes online.

Ah, so they get to charge full tuition AND room and board. Clever.

Colleges have been creative with their money-making and student fees for quite some time, so that's not surprising.

What is surprising is their belief that it's too risky for students to be in classrooms while at the same time believing it's perfeclty OK for them to be in close proximity in dorms where they'll be studying, recreating, and sleeping with each other.

 

[New & Improved Username]

These guys wont be allowed in McDonald's anymore

 

[pull over dat ass too fat]

You claim the supposed ''''''price war'''''''' caused the surplus in oil-



Here you finally seem to acknowledge that the "falling demand" created the "large surplus" not the aforementioned "oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia".
Like I said at the start, this should have happened 2 months ago when anyone with a brain could see a glut coming.

the large surplus we have now is influenced by the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, which was initially sparked due to falling demand. this caused a trading competition, because they both require oil export for their economy. Instead of going along with the natural supply/demand they both refused to set reasonable production rates and made huge price cuts in order to take control of market share. idk why this hard for you to understand. Have you heard of the prisoner's dilemma? Saudi Arabia and Russia themselves aren't hiding that this occurred so it's truly weird to me that you're acting skeptical. Are you arab or smth? pls explain your bias.

btw: https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudis...head-of-schedule-as-price-crashes-11587416271

also stocks don't just immediately go to zero lol. even putting aside the fact that it was always unclear how long this would last, people invest for different lengths of time. e.g. just to repeat, the US gov has been continually bailing out oil & buying shit tons of barrels from US companies. fuck, i made money off an option on an airline forever ago, because it rallied for a presumed bailout. it was always obvious it would go down longer term, but you can still usually make money in the short-term off of speculation (here meaning: gambling lol)

You seem to think this is some total oil crash but-
View attachment 1244411

omg, $-6, no way, prices are really mooning! are you telling me stonks dont only go one direction?

do I have to say it? "even a dead cat..." yadda yadda. oil crashed today. that isn't debatable. we've had oil crashes in the past, but it's never gone this low. I mean if -200% in a single day, putting the price into negative isn't a "crash" I have no idea wtf you would consider a real crash. that doesn't mean oil is headed to go lower (i mean its fucking negative, that alone is unheard of), but expecting it to just spring to life is pretty fucking dumb.

ultimately the problem to contend with is the effect that that commodity in particular has on the economy. even ignoring the direct deflationary pressures of supply/demand issues, oil is essentially a currency. the US economy is inextricably tied to it and it doing poorly really does not bode well. there are many countries it doesn't bode well for, actually.

 

[Honka Honka Burning Love]

Your question is VERY well taken. I don't know why the ChiCom flu isn't running rampant in the countries you mentioned. Don't believe any of these countries can effectively shut off the news coming out. Haven't seen anything here. Believe there's at least one poster here from India

I doubt they are even really "testing"

Still waiting for the official re-opening plan. In the meantime, some small news:

I am sure you will be waiting for a good long time. If your governor doesn't have a plan to open put together last week..guess what...You are now sealed in your pod. (I live in a Pod-state too)

 

[Rudy Russo]

Outside China

2,389,392 confirmed / 165,406 dead / 568,262 recovered

2318271 / 160470 / 546221 yesterday

Iran

83,505 confirmed / 5,209 dead / 59,273 recovered

82211 / 5118 / 57023 yesterday

USA

784,599 confirmed / 42,138 dead / 72,522 recovered JohnHopkins
797,415 confirmed / 42,586 dead / 72,522 recovered Infection2020

759118 / 40665 / 70344 yesterday JohnHopkins
765556 / 40585 / 70344 yesterday Infection2020

Spain

200,210 confirmed / 20,852 dead / 80,587 recovered

198674 / 20453 / 77357 yesterday

Italy

181,228 confirmed / 24,114 dead / 48,877 recovered

178972 / 23660 / 47055 yesterday

France

156,480 confirmed / 20,292 dead / 38,036 recovered

154097 / 19744 / 37183 yesterday

Germany

147,065 confirmed / 4,862 dead / 91,500 recovered

145742 / 4642 / 88000 yesterday

 

[RisingPhoenix]

So question, how are other states unemployment systems fairing in the US? - because this whole thing has shown up Florida's unemployment system to be an absolute mess.

They made it all online around 2013 under Democrat Governor Bill Nelson - which even at the start had similar issues to now. Leap all the way to 2020 and the Florida unemployment site is still the mess it was in 2013, but had gone under the radar as unemployment has largely been a non-issue till now.

Then Covid happened and the CONNECT site took a collective dump, and the story got dumber. For whatever reason, the FL Dept of Economic Opportunity learned 7 years after the system's install that they had never connected the backup, started taking the site down at 6pm (when people were logging in at like midnight when the site was most likely to work) and after a week or so finally put out a paper version of the form to fill in.

They also had next to nobody on the CONNECT support line so everyone tried to call in when the site was broken and got stonewalled. The calls were so backed up that even the computer handling the call holds would hang up on people. Also even before Covid, you were projected a 6 week wait to have your unemployment claim verified,

It then turns out that the DEO executive wasn't even reporting claims processed to the Governor so he had to hand over the whole nightmare to some new guy instead. Who seems to be making some headway - but this right around the time when Disney have just flung all their WDW employees on top of the pile too.

 

[Honka Honka Burning Love]

So question, how are other states unemployment systems fairing in the US? - because this whole thing has shown up Florida's unemployment system to be an absolute mess.

A government System a mess?

I AM SHOCKED SHOCKED I TELL YOU!

 

[StarkRavingMad]

In the US they have shut down most medical care to reserve space for WuFlu cases.
Even in states with under 1,000 total cases.
California with almost the population of the UK is shut down with under 1,100 dead.

The decision makers aren't being rational at all so predicting what they are actually doing rn? *shrugs*

Do they not realize that this could break the healthcare system, too? Empty hospitals could lead to them closing their doors entirely ... It costs money to make those machines run and to have the healthcare professionals show up to work.

Chalk this up to another "unintended consequence" in the name of safety and in the name of "it's for our own good."

 

[pull over dat ass too fat]

Do they not realize that this could break the healthcare system, too? Empty hospitals could lead to them closing their doors entirely ... It costs money to make those machines run and to have the healthcare professionals show up to work.

Chalk this up to another "unintended consequence" in the name of safety and in the name of "it's for our own good."

What do you mean by this? Why would hospitals be empty, and why would they have machines running and healthcare professionals showing up into an empty hospital?

 

[StarkRavingMad]

What do you mean by this? Why would hospitals be empty, and why would they have machines running and healthcare professionals showing up into an empty hospital?

Exactly. Hospitals aren't going to stay open if nobody is going. Healthcare workers in these situations are already being laid off-- more people losing their jobs and their income.

When all of this mess is behind us, do we really want to be in a situation where we have less hospitals around when things are back to normal and people start going to hospitals and doctors again? Sounds like this could be a disaster in the making.

 

[pull over dat ass too fat]

Exactly. Hospitals aren't going to stay open if nobody is going. Healthcare workers in these situations are already being laid off-- more people losing their jobs and their income.

When all of this mess is behind us, do we really want to be in a situation where we have less hospitals around when things are back to normal and people start going to hospitals and doctors again? Sounds like this could be a disaster in the making.

lol as far as professions go, healthcare workers are in a better place for keeping their job than most. it's actually the opposite in most states, there are shortages of healthcare professionals and certain regions.

btw since previous poster conflated "1000 deaths" with "1000 cases," that's not how it works. using the example of california, that's a state which has ~34k confirmed cases, which on its own is a lot, but also we know that cali esp has had a huge shortage of tests. most people who get wuflu won't die. the actual, logistical problem that the virus poses isn't necessarily deaths (as long as resources are available) but the large and rapid # of people who will require hospitalization. people who are hospitalized with wuflu also take a really long time to recover. so hospitals can very quickly get overwhelmed if the region isn't equipped to handle it, and this poses the threat of collapsing the entire system, which can drives up death rates as well.

I think people are looking for a solution which has no downsides, which is just impossible. There is no perfect outcome to this now that the cat is out of the bag, it's a matter of trying to minimize the shitty aspects to whatever action you end up taking. This all genuinely sucks no matter how you slice it.