Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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I don't know why people call secret police forces that when the Stasi was way worse.

The Gestapo were nazis. The Stasi were supposedly democrats. (Note the "supposedly", it's a big one.)

Also:

Gestapo looks scary. Stasi looks like her mom has got it going on.

Yeah Gestapo just sounds powerful. It's a gutural name. Stasi sounds like "Sarasa", which is the old spanish term for "homosexual", you can't take that shit seriously.
 
The Gestapo were nazis. The Stasi were supposedly democrats.

Also:



Yeah Gestapo just sounds powerful. It's a gutural name. Stasi sounds like "Sarasa", which is the old spanish term for "homosexual", you can't take that shit seriously.
The left-right dichotomy is meaningless, the level of authoritarianism is where the really fucked shit happens.
 
The left-right dichotomy is meaningless, the level of authoritarianism is where the really fucked shit happens.

I agree. My point is that people find it much easier to use the "fascist/nazi" secret police as bogeymen than they do the "democratic republic of germany", maybe if you said NKVD, you know, soviet fucking russia. Sadly that shit doesn't roll off the tongue nearly as well. But even then, concentration camps are used for rhetoric. Gulags are a meme.

I don't like that people think this way. But they do.
 
Your a moron if you believe that. Everyone is at risk of it, regardless of age. Its people like you that make trying to follow info about the pandemic impossible

Try to follow the logic with me:

1) The widely accepted number is that 50% of people are asymptomatic. I am not referring to antibody tests. This has been shown in jurisdictions where a large sample of the public have been tested such as Iceland and parts of Italy. Here's a quote from an article about the USS Roosevelt:

Testing aboard the Roosevelt has revealed details that have intrigued epidemiologists. Half of those that have tested positive, mostly young, healthy men and women under the age of 30, have proven asymptomatic—that is, they have no symptoms at all.

These test only show people currently infected with the virus. They do not show people whose system have already fought it off which would be revealed by antibody testing. AFAIK there is still not a 100% foolproof antibody test.

2) We know that unhealthy and older people tend to be hit harder by the virus. So if 50% of the entire population is asymptomatic, that likely means that less than 50% of older people and people with underlying health issues are asymptomatic and more than 50% of young healthy people are asymptomatic. For example, assuming a population with an equal number of older/unhealthy people and healthy young people, the rate of asymptotic infection in older/unhealthy people could be 40% while the rate in younger people could be 60% to arrive at an average of 50%.

3) So we know, based on the 50% number, it is likely that more than half of young healthy people are asymptomatic. Most jurisdictions are only testing people who show symptoms, so these asymptotic people are not counted in the numbers of confirmed cases.

4) Look at these number from April 14th in New York. At that point 309 people between 18 and 44 had died. Of that 309, only 25 or 8% were confirmed not to have any underlying health issues. 79% had underlying health issues such as hypertension or diabetes and 13% were unknown.

5) Further down the page you can see that adults under 50 have a roughly 0.2%-0.4% rate of fatality. This number is obtained by dividing the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases. So remember that at least 50% of people who are asymptomatic we talked about earlier? They wouldn't have been tested a thus would not have been counted in these numbers. So right away you can pretty well cut this number in half.

6) This fatality rate also includes the 79% of deaths who we know for sure had underlying health issues like hypertension or diabetes. I don't care to do the math to work out what that actually brings the odds of death to if you are young and healthy, but it's pretty obviously below 0.1%.

7) If you're under 50 and you are afraid of a < 0.1% fatality rate you are a retard. Your chances of developing colon cancer under 50 are several times higher. There is a 2% chance you have an unruptured brain aneurysm right now.


This information is from reputable sources, not fringe conspiracy sites. I'm just taking objective numbers I can find and drawing logical conclusions. Some cum gargling talking head on CNN is not doing that. They are cherry picking stories that are statistical anomalies to make it seem like more young people are getting sick, because if you are scared you watch the news more. There is a conflict of interest at play that is going to lead them to be biased toward reporting scary news. It's the same part of your brain that serialized TV dramas that always end in a cliffhanger exploit. There's this tension created and you want to see what's going to happen.

I'm not saying it's not a problem. It's very contagious and a sizable percentage of people who are old and have health issues end up in ICU and dying, overwhelming ICU resources. However, if you are under 50 and healthy your chances of dying from the virus are several times lower than your chances of dying for a myriad of other things that can kill you that you don't bother thinking about because they're not in the news.

Now the issue in my mind, do you think it's more realistic to lockdown the entirety of society, including the group that has a statistically insignificant chance of dying, long-term, or more realistic to just pay people who are in high risk groups such as the elderly and people with preexisting health issues to stay home until a vaccine or some kind of herd immunity can be achieved?
 
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Try to follow the logic with me:

1) The widely accepted number is that 50% of people are asymptomatic. I am not referring to antibody tests. This has been shown in jurisdictions where a large sample of the public have been tested such as Iceland and parts of Italy. Here's a quote from an article about the USS Roosevelt:



These test only show people currently infected with the virus. They do not show people whose system have already fought it off which would be revealed by antibody testing. AFAIK there is still not a 100% foolproof antibody test.

2) We know that unhealthy and older people tend to be hit harder by the virus. So if 50% of the entire population is asymptomatic, that likely means that less than 50% of older people and people with underlying health issues are asymptomatic and more than 50% of young healthy people are asymptomatic. For example, assuming a population with an equal number of older/unhealthy people and healthy young people, the rate of asymptotic infection in older/unhealthy people could be 40% while the rate in younger people could be 60% to arrive at an average of 50%.

3) So we know based on the 50% number, it is likely that more than half of young healthy people are asymptomatic. Most jurisdictions are only testing people who show symptoms, so these asymptotic people are not counted in the numbers of confirmed cases.

4) Look at these number from April 14th in New York. At that point 309 people between 18 and 44 had died. Of that 309, only 25 or 8% were confirmed not to have any underlying health issues. 79% had underlying health issues such as hypertension or diabetes and 13% were unknown.

5) Further down the page you can see that adults under 50 have a roughly 0.2%-0.4% of fatality. This number is obtained by dividing the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases. So remember that at least 50% of people who are asymptomatic we talked about earlier, they wouldn't have been tested a thus would not have been counted in there numbers. So right away you can pretty well cut this number in half.

6) This fatality rate also includes the 79% of deaths who we know for 100% had underlying health issues like hypertension or diabetes. I don't care to do the match to work out what that actually brings the odds of death to if you are you and healthy, but it's below 0.1% when you factor in asymptomatic cases that aren't counted in the tally and factor in that 79% of the deaths that are counted are people with underlying issues like diabetes or hypertension.

7) If you're under 50 and you are afraid of a < 0.1% fatality rate you are a retard. Your chances of developing colon cancer under 50 are several times higher. There is a 2% chance you have an unruptured brain aneurysm right now.


This information is from reputable sources, not fringe conspiracy sites. Stop gargling CNN's balls.

I'm not saying it's not a problem. It's very contagious and a sizable percentage of people who are old and have health issues end up in ICU and dying, overwhelming ICU resources. However, if you are under 50 and healthy your chances of dying from the virus are several times lower than your chances of dying for a myriad of other things that can kill you that you don't bother thinking about because they're not in the news.

Now the issue in my mind, do you think it's more realistic to lockdown the entirety of society, including the group that has a statistically insignificant chance of dying long-term, or more realistic to just pay people who are in high risk groups such as the elderly and people with preexisting health issues to stay home until a vaccine or some kind of herd immunity can be achieved?

With the risk of the virus mutating into something more deadly, and the fact the UK has not handled the situation all that well, it seems the only option right now
 
There is a risk of the flu mutating into something more deadly every year. It has happened before and killed 17-50 million people 100 years ago. This is moving the goalposts plain and simple and was not the logic behind the initial lockdown that was presented to the public. If we're going to lockdown society because a virus has a chance to mutate into something more deadly, we may as well permanently lockdown everything because that is true of many viruses. Even if we have a vaccine, the virus can mutate into something more deadly and the vaccine would potentially be totally useless. What are we going to do, stay inside forever? Do you think that's realistic?
 
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We never locked down the country to stop all deaths. Allegedly we did it to 'flatten the curve' so that our ICUs wouldn't be overwhelmed and our medical system wouldn't collapse and cause mass deaths. I don't think we ever would have had that happen, but we're very clearly prepared now. People have been sipping on the doomer tea they sent out to sell the lockdown for so long now that, apparently, they've forgotten why we locked down in the first place. At this point it's unquestionable that extending lockdowns do more damage than lifting them.
 
Try to follow the logic with me:

1) The widely accepted number is that 50% of people are asymptomatic. I am not referring to antibody tests. This has been shown in jurisdictions where a large sample of the public have been tested such as Iceland and parts of Italy. Here's a quote from an article about the USS Roosevelt:

It's more complicated than that. Spot test positive without symptoms vs. never developing symptoms. The media reports on it like it's the same thing. It's not.

The latter (never developing symptoms) is about 18% from the cruise ship data.
 
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Step 1 : Open your door
Step 2 : GO THE FUCK OUTSIDE

UK can make the check out to "The guy wearing clown make up and an Elvis wig but is still smarter than us."

Our government's scientists have told us the world outside the bunker is uninhabitable. Full of terrible mutations. Far better to stay in our pods, eat our bugs, and take our hormones.
 
It's more complicated than that. Spot test positive without symptoms vs. never developing symptoms. The media reports on it like it's the same thing. It's not.

The latter (never developing symptoms) is about 18% from the cruise ship data.

Older people tend to go on cruises more than young people, so the average age skews older. Even assuming the number is 20% of young people, it's likely higher than that because of the age of the average person on a cruise and, as I said, the numbers from the Roosevelt do not include people who had the virus, had no symptoms and had fought it off by the time they were tested. 0.2 / 1.2 = 0.16 bringing you down to a 0.16% fatality rate under 40. Then 79% of that 0.16% have underlying issues, so the number is still very likely under 0.1% if you're young and healthy.

It's clear a lot of people here are still stuck in the "it's just the flu bro" mindset

This is a cop out. I don't think it's just the flu. I think it's actually quite a bit worse than the flu and I never said anything different. I just don't think a young healthy person has statistically significant chance of dying and the "no one is safe" line thrown around by news outlets is complete trash. I posted numbers to explain why and sourced them. You are just too stupid to look at the released numbers and draw logical conclusions from them.
 
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Based Czechs.jpg :story:

Czech+this+out_823d3a_7678583.jpg
I read that this was before Corona-Chans arrival and is actually made to inform the Czech citizens not the Chinee, as it is apparently written in native language not Ping pong.
 
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I agree. My point is that people find it much easier to use the "fascist/nazi" secret police as bogeymen than they do the "democratic republic of germany", maybe if you said NKVD, you know, soviet fucking russia. Sadly that shit doesn't roll off the tongue nearly as well. But even then, concentration camps are used for rhetoric. Gulags are a meme.

This is because journalists lean heavily to the left. And, recently, the loudest journalists on social media lean far left. Ash Sarkar in the UK said she was 'literally a Communist'. Meanwhile, the same far-left journos are obsessive about purging the far-right from the media. And by 'far-right' they mean anyone who is not far-left.

Deniers of Nazi democide must be purged while deniers of Communist democide (archive) are welcome on TV. Also, anyone on the right can be purged by falsely accusing them of being pro-Nazi, even if it's manifestly a false charge.

Actually this isn't even that new of a phenomenon. Long before irritants like Sarkar were the BBC's go-to choice as on-air talking heads Martin Amis pointed out that Communist mass murder had been turned into a harmless meme in Koba the Dread. And long before that Orwell pointed out that British intellectuals were overwhelming fellow travelers or outright Commies.
 
We never locked down the country to stop all deaths. Allegedly we did it to 'flatten the curve' so that our ICUs wouldn't be overwhelmed and our medical system wouldn't collapse and cause mass deaths. I don't think we ever would have had that happen, but we're very clearly prepared now. People have been sipping on the doomer tea they sent out to sell the lockdown for so long now that, apparently, they've forgotten why we locked down in the first place. At this point it's unquestionable that extending lockdowns do more damage than lifting them.

Agreed. Illinois' little Hitler got a surprise from a court. A small start, but it's a start, and something more people in states under house arrest should do.


 
We never locked down the country to stop all deaths. Allegedly we did it to 'flatten the curve' so that our ICUs wouldn't be overwhelmed and our medical system wouldn't collapse and cause mass deaths. I don't think we ever would have had that happen, but we're very clearly prepared now. People have been sipping on the doomer tea they sent out to sell the lockdown for so long now that, apparently, they've forgotten why we locked down in the first place. At this point it's unquestionable that extending lockdowns do more damage than lifting them.

Bingo, and this is why our peak and curve is working out ok. We've not had the horrific scenes we've heard of and seen in Italy. We've not had to resort to just jabbing patients full of morphine and walking away like we saw as the healthcare system collapsed in Northern Italy, or the more localised moments that were seen in Spain.

It's hit a lot of our vulnerable a bit harder, but our population is also larger than Italy and Spain's.

Our system has worked very well, it's also lead to most of the mongs who normally fucking fill A&E with their useless bullshit has meant actual emergencies have been seen and used resources better.

If anything, looking into just turfing twats out of A&E via triage or other methods might be a good method going forwards.


This is because journalists lean heavily to the left. And, recently, the loudest journalists on social media lean far left. Ash Sarkar in the UK said she was 'literally a Communist'. Meanwhile, the same far-left journos are obsessive about purging the far-right from the media. And by 'far-right' they mean anyone who is not far-left.

Said journos are also beginning to panic about their collapsing trust as we're seeing. The public obviously have actual questions they want to ask (with the 15k+ asked so far that are being processed). Their ideology and desire to play official opposition due to Labour's ineffectiveness has really blown back in their faces, and the fact people have tuned in daily to see the government having to fend off these morons has seemingly opened a lot of eyes up about the matter.

There's still some out there, one on the local Pillockville page linked to the joke of a BBC Panorama program they ran the other night on PPE and called the government "shocking" only to be shouted down by every commentator who understand how difficult it all is, and how PPE procurement is handled by the NHS, not the government directly.
 
UK Anecdotal report:

I had a talk yesterday with a neighnour who is a surgeon in a local hospital. Got lots of anecdotal reports of how he sees things, but have 't backed any of this up . It's all citation needed.

- The UK regions are affected very differently. It hasn't really hit us much here, but West Midlands and London have been hit. He blamed population denstity - living in tower blocks and using the tube. And ethnic behaviour differences.

- His A&E department is at 20% of normal volumes. Yes they are down 80% on normal patient numbers coming through the door. Mainly because people aren't coming in for trivial shit, with some reduction due to people doing less driving etc.

- He is seeing more than usual number of old people injuring themselves. Climbing up ladders , trying to do things for themselves etc. Also more DIY injuries.

- Elective surgeries are cancelled, but also diagnostic procedures. He was quite angry/worried about this, it will lead to more deaths down the line. Your prostate cancer surgery - postponed. Endoscopy - postponed.

- Some of their theatres were converted to emergency ICU capacity. It hasn't been needed.

- The UK gov bought all capacity from the private hospitals for three months up front. It hasn't been needed yet, and so those beds are sitting empty, not being used.

- The local Nightingale hospital has not been needed.

- They are struggling a bit for PPE and using stuff they wouldn't normally, e.g. industrial facemasks, but not at failure point. What has degraded is the supplies of other general drugs and equipment, not Covid specific items. E.g. the stuff they use for everyday procedures. The lines that they use for IVs. Supply chain issues.

- His hospital is putting Covid patients on ventilators much more aggressively than usual, and as a result is seeing much better overall rates of recovery. This seems important. The different UK hospitals are trying different approaches, and are chatting to each other.

Overall opinion - It's a bit of a nothing burger, and we are doing more damage with the panicky mitigation strategies. Thinks they need to start lifting restrictions and putting things back towards normal operating ASAP.

All of that was the same here in Australia.

Our difference is elective surgery is now to resume (surgeons now less bored) and our PPE situation is well sorted (better stockpile according to Prime Minister ScoMo).

Just one note: When they cancelled "elective" stuff, the important shit still got done. So if your prostate cancer was aggressive, you're still getting that surgery. Things that could wait, were expected to wait. Doctors always get cagey about this stuff because waiting can/does cause issues. But this waiting stuff can occur randomly due to hospital demand anyway...not just because of WuFlu.

For those of you who aren't aware, elective surgery just means booked/planned. It doesn't necessarily indicate severity. An aneurysm repair can be both elective or emergency depending on the circumstance. A broken finger requiring K-wire is the same. There's a whole lot of factors involved that I can't be fucked explaining.

Since elective surgery is back on, the private hospitals have said "GTFO" to the public patients being sent there as a "minimising risk" strategy.

We had issues of sanitiser theft but donning/doffing stayed the same with no reports of people having to wear the same gear more than once. (And I get reports from all over Australia - majority of medical staff have worked at multiple hospitals and maintain contact with others at different locations). So I'm inclined to believe our government about the PPE supply.


Also my understanding through conversations I've had (but not confirmed by any agency or national body) is that the Aus lockdown was to prepare medical sites in preparation for a long slog. Essentially: boost medical capacity, slowly ease restrictions, case numbers will rise but less deaths due to increased medical capacity, expect these makeshift hospitals to be around for a while solely dealing with China virus patients. I guess we wait and see if that claim holds any water.

In the meantime, I really hope the number of pollution goblins and Pajeets disappears from this country.

China threatened Australia by saying they won't send their kids to our Universities anymore

...and nothing of value was lost.
 
There's still some out there, one on the local Pillockville page linked to the joke of a BBC Panorama program they ran the other night on PPE and called the government "shocking" only to be shouted down by every commentator who understand how difficult it all is, and how PPE procurement is handled by the NHS, not the government directly.

Criticizing the NHS for not being able to get hold of PPE seems very unfair to me. Everyone knows that anything even vaguely corona related has been impossible to get since the lockdown started because it's all been consumed by global panic buying.
 
UK Anecdotal report:

I had a talk yesterday with a neighnour who is a surgeon in a local hospital. Got lots of anecdotal reports of how he sees things, but have 't backed any of this up . It's all citation needed.

- The UK regions are affected very differently. It hasn't really hit us much here, but West Midlands and London have been hit. He blamed population denstity - living in tower blocks and using the tube. And ethnic behaviour differences.

- His A&E department is at 20% of normal volumes. Yes they are down 80% on normal patient numbers coming through the door. Mainly because people aren't coming in for trivial shit, with some reduction due to people doing less driving etc.

- He is seeing more than usual number of old people injuring themselves. Climbing up ladders , trying to do things for themselves etc. Also more DIY injuries.

- Elective surgeries are cancelled, but also diagnostic procedures. He was quite angry/worried about this, it will lead to more deaths down the line. Your prostate cancer surgery - postponed. Endoscopy - postponed.

- Some of their theatres were converted to emergency ICU capacity. It hasn't been needed.

- The UK gov bought all capacity from the private hospitals for three months up front. It hasn't been needed yet, and so those beds are sitting empty, not being used.

- The local Nightingale hospital has not been needed.

- They are struggling a bit for PPE and using stuff they wouldn't normally, e.g. industrial facemasks, but not at failure point. What has degraded is the supplies of other general drugs and equipment, not Covid specific items. E.g. the stuff they use for everyday procedures. The lines that they use for IVs. Supply chain issues.

- His hospital is putting Covid patients on ventilators much more aggressively than usual, and as a result is seeing much better overall rates of recovery. This seems important. The different UK hospitals are trying different approaches, and are chatting to each other.

Overall opinion - It's a bit of a nothing burger, and we are doing more damage with the panicky mitigation strategies. Thinks they need to start lifting restrictions and putting things back towards normal operating ASAP.

This happened in Lincolnshire with my father as he has cancer, it seems someone got very very angry with the relevant NHS Trust as they suddenly pinwheeled around after mooting chemo tablets for him and others and closed off his local hospital.

Instead it turned around into designating and locking down his local hospital and moving all chemo patients to other hospitals.

Pillockshire Health Trust however, retrained all relevant cancer related stuff as a matter of priority.

The fact the local Nightingale Hospital hasn't been needed has been fantastic news, quite frankly. If it had been we'd be in a far, far worse state. We increased bed capacity by something like 9,000 with the rapid opening of the two.
 
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