Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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MedCram on a Korean study which shows people who test positive after infection are false positives - they have viral RNA in their system which is picked up by the very sensitive Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) test but they do not have intact viral particles, do have antibodies and their contacts are not infected.

I.e. like Dr. Campbell, whose video @druid has archived here, he thinks reinfection is unlikely.

Both of them are referencing the same Korean study.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01Rftnxbi6w
https://archive.vn/3T8BF
 
Michigan, USA

We are still sending elderly patients with COVID to ordinary nursing homes, as of Monday May 18.
(archive)

Our former secretary of state Ruth Johnson (R) is suspicious of our current SOS Jocelyn Benson (D)'s motivations in sending absentee ballots to all Michigan registered voters.
(archive)
President Trump (R) is also suspicious.
(archive)
President Trump said:
Breaking: Michigan sends absentee ballots to 7.7 million people ahead of Primaries and the General Election. This was done illegally and without authorization by a rogue Secretary of State. I will ask to hold up funding to Michigan if they want to go down this Voter Fraud path!..

The state is going to add "probable" deaths from Coronavirus to our death tolls.
(archive)

Unemployment hit 22.7% in April. Presumably it's lower now as the factories are reopening.
(archive)

SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN
Shelter-in-place order from Tuesday March 24 to Monday April 13. Friday, May 1, Friday, May 15, May 28, but May 22 for the farthest north, May 1, maybe? (archive) (executive order saved on KF) . The Republican-controlled legislature has refused to extend Governor Whitmer's emergency authority. Governor Whitmer insists her emergency orders are all still in effect (Rundown on the laws).
State attorney general Dana Nessel (D) is also leaving enforcement of the stay-at-home order to local discretion until the courts weigh in on it (archive). She has stated Governor Whitmer's orders are valid and are to be enforced (archive). The legislature is not calling for civil disobedience at this time (archive).
The legislature has filed a lawsuit against the governor (archive). Oral arguments were heard May 15 (archive). The judge's decision is pending, but will most likely be appealed either way.
State senate leader Mike Shirkey (R) is also supporting a petition drive to change the law. Such a petition would require 340,047 signatures to be collected. It would be veto-proof if approved by the legislature, and would go on the next general election ballot if denied by them (archive 1, archive 2, archive 3).
U. S. Rep Paul Mitchell (R - The Thumb) has filed a lawsuit independently against Governor Whitmer, in federal district court. Link, pdf on KF. He has also founded a committee to work on the petition recommended by Sen. Shirkey.
There have been at least nine other lawsuits against Governor Whitmer's actions during this crisis, mostly regarding the shut-down order, in various stages of progress and in various courts (summary of eight of them). However, "all deadlines applicable to the commencement of all civil and probate actions and proceedings" are suspended until the end of the states of emergency and disaster. Executive order, and thus in limbo. (archive).

OTHER SHUTDOWNS
Recap from NPR
Major protest at the State Capitol April 15 (A&N thread). Minor protest outside Governor's Mansion April 23 (archive). Protest at the State Capitol April 30 (A&N Thread). Protest at the capitol May 14 (archive).
Auto manufacturing resuming May 18. (archive)

ECONOMY AND MISCELLANY
Unemployment reached 22.7% in April. (Archive - May 20). It should be lower now, as factories, etc. reopen.
Massive phone-tracking project reveals Michigan travel is slowly creeping back up (website).
The State is facing a $2.5 billion budget shortage (archive).

HEALTH CARE
Hydroxychloroquine banned by governor's order (archive). Nevermind LOL! Now she's asking the federal government for it and claiming the ban was a mistake in the first place. (archive). Detroit-area hospitals are testing the drug's effectiveness as a preventative on first responders and health-care workers (archive). Article on results, May 8 (archive).
Elective surgeries are banned. Maybe? Who knows. If/when in effect, abortions were not included in the ban (thread).
At any rate, hospitals are resuming elective surgeries.
Up-to-date count of available hospital beds, etc. in the State (the Detroit area is "Section 2, North and South.")(government website)
State of affairs May 5 - about half as many hospitalized cases and ICU cases as on April 12 (archive).
Detroit field hospital, capacity 1,000, closed. Never had many more than 20 at any time. (archive, May 7).

LAW AND ORDER
All localities given more discretion to release prisoners early (archive). It was an executive order. Who knows if it's still valid?
Detroit shootings up, but most other crime down (archive - April 30); Muskegon police report crime is up (archive).
Breaking the lockdown is a misdemeanor, punishable by $1500 fines and 90 days jail time. (Still valid???) Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) has stated there will not be a "ramp up" of police enforcement (archive). The attorney general has left it to local law enforcement to close businesses, as her hands are full with price-gougers and con artists (archive).
The police cannot, at present, pull drivers over simply for being out during the shutdown (archive). Multiple sherrifs from the rural north to Detroit suburbs have stated they will not be enforcing or not strictly enforcing parts or the entirety of the order (archive).

OFFICIAL DEATH TOLL

The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services reviews deaths and adds overlooked cases to the count three days a week: Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday. Recovery counts are updated on Saturdays.
43 deaths were added yesterday.

MDHHS said:
Regular reviews of death certificate data maintained in Vital Records reporting systems are conducted by MDHHS staff three times per week. As a part of this process, records that identify COVID-19 infection as a contributing factor to death are compared against all laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Michigan Disease Surveillance System (MDSS). If a death certificate is matched to a confirmed COVID-19 case and that record in the MDSS does not indicate the individual died, the MDSS record is updated to indicate the death and the appropriate local health department is notified. These matched deaths are then included with mortality information posted to the Michigan Coronavirus website.

Detroit Metro (pop. 3,860,000 total; 1,796/sq. mi.; 694/sq km):*

33,941 confirmed / 3,982 dead
33,737 confirmed / 3,956 dead yesterday
(i.e. 26 new deaths, up 1 from this day last week)
Normal Detroit Metro Death Rate: 104 per day.**

Other Michigan (6,120,000; 65/sq. mi.; 25/sq km):

19,068 confirmed / 1,078 dead
18,613 confirmed / 1,061 dead yesterday
(i.e. 17 new deaths, up 2 from this day last week)
Normal not-Detroit Death Rate: 167 per day**

All Michigan (9,990,000; 103/sq. mi.; 40/sq km):

53,009 confirmed / 5,060 dead
52,350 confirmed / 5,017 dead yesterday
(i.e. 43 new deaths, up 3 from this day last week)
Normal Michigan Death Rate: 271 per day.**

Death toll doubled since: April 20.
We have been (were?) locked down since: March 24 (until April 30?),
Masks have been mandatory in stores since: April 27 (until April 30?).

Detroit Metro Daily Deaths Last Seven Days:
27*** / 18 / 26*** / 4 / 14 / 77*** / 26 = 235***
[I was wrong about the weekly death toll yesterday. It should have been 234, not 226]

State Government site, daily - today's archive;
State Gov site, total, includes breakdowns by sex, age, race and ethnicity - today's archive.
*Here defined as the City of Detroit, and Macomb, Oakland, and Wayne Counties, minus state and federal prisoners, who are not counted towards any county's cases, but are kept in categories of their own.
** As of 2018.
*** 35, 19, and 43 statewide deaths, respectively, were added on these days upon State review. Presumably most were in Detroit, but I don't know exactly how many.

One Ann Arbor man allegedly killed by his roommate in a Corona-related dispute (archive). The suspect has been released from custody while the investigation continues (archive).
One Flint security guard allegedly murdered for telling a woman that her daughter needed to wear a mask in a dollar store. Multiple suspects are in custody (archive, A&N thread).
 
Brief Polish news. Not much has changed. We still can't bring the overall numbers down because results from miners are still coming in, and now there's a new (thankfully far smaller) cluster elsewhere, among workers of a furniture manufacturing plant. It makes me unhappy how we still can't clean house while some others have achieved better results (see Slovenia), but then doomer journos are very good at accidentally putting things into perspective. No, 100 people working at the same factory is in no way "like Lombardy", idiots.

Oh, and about the nursery and kindergarten things, several people have now said these results don't mean a damn because they used cheap, rapid antibody tests that tell little and give the wrong results half of the time. The whole thing looks like a ruse to one-up the government and their decision to reopen kindergartens. We'll see when results of PCR tests come in, but I suspect they will be in single digits.

Regardless, these are all local concerns and seem ridiculously trivial compared to what some other places had gone through. You can tell most people feel like things are petering out, and they accordingly care less and less. Even the cagey minister of health says we're on a downward trend. Many restrictions have been loosened, activity outside and in shopping centers is more or less back to normal, most people don't really bother with masks outside. It doesn't feel like there's an ongoing epidemic. It did feel like that for a couple weeks, back when everyone was sitting inside and we'd have empty streets and warning signs everywhere, but now? After three months, my region has 126 known active cases, out of over a million people... So yeah, the threat feels very, very distant.
 
UK cases and deaths are both trending down

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
https://archive.vn/A1LhQ

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Great news! Today we recieved the first mask package from the Junta which ACTUALLY FOLLOWS REGULATIONS! I'm not kidding here, it's been multiple dozens of packages from the Junta and they all failed on lab. This one succeeded! And we're memeing it the fuck up! Just... the absolute state of this autonomy, we celebrate our masks actually following the law. Welcome to corruption.

On other funny news. Once again, after their initial law failed miserably, the gov finally listened to what Fernando Simon had been saying on press interviews since before they did it to begin with, and limited the mandatory masks to only being mandatory on areas in which social distancing can't be enforced. Such as public offices, public transport, emergency rooms, etc. And once more they will be given for free on such areas. Honestly. What exactly where they thinking? Of fucking course the law wasn't being enforced. Just... If they just listened from day 1 maybe we wouldn't be memeing them so much. But I am glad for the memes, so I can't be too angry. I'm just disapointed.

Oh also Madrid and Galicia decide to use their newfound powers to immediately crack down by closing pools and beaches again... yes those are the same people that claimed the gov's plan was draconic, not listening to all the fucking papers that say the salt and chlorine on beaches and pools kills the viri, exactly like Fernando fucking told them. So I'm betting they'll have to walk it back in less than a week. *siiigh.*

On other news the EU is pissing everyone off with some bullshit "green deal" that'd sabotage our farms even fucking further by trying to force the french "organic" model on everyone else. Funny. It's like they are begging for terrorism. Yeah let's sabotage the food supply during an economic crisis! I'm sure that won't fucking cause people to decide to "eat the (neoliberal) rich" in more ways than one!
 
Bit more chatter about the contact tracing app being developed by Apple & Google.
BBC . archive
It wasn't clear earlier, and it's stil not clear from that article, but it looks like Google & Apple have produced a cross compatible interface, and released an update to their OS/API . So the functionality won't just magically appear after your next update, but rather the infrastructure is now in place for individual countries to develop their own apps.
The UK and a few others are not going this route, preferring instead a more centralised model, that gives better control over operating behaviour.

From the article text, the G&A approach sounds rushed. They've hit some technical issues relating to current bluetooth operation, and are rushing out hacks to work round it. I'd bet any money on new security vulnerabilities being introduced by this work.


Related, this article suggests the UK is pushing ahead with a mandraulic traditional system using 25,000 paper pushing phone operators. Sounds like they aren't putting all their faith in new tech working correctly straight off the bat. archive .

Also can't find anything anywhere about how compulsory any of this is going to be. Or maybe not 'compulsory' , but make it awkward for you if you're not running it.

The fact that these OS updates are going out worldwide, and the control it gives to governments is concerning. Tracing exactly who all your troublemakers spend time with is an authoritarian's wet dream.
 
Pure anecdote: temperatures have gone up the last couple of days, hitting around 24°C today. People are complying with all the restrictions and crap, but i'm hearing a lot of arguments around where I live. Way more than normal. Lots of shouting inside houses or in the street, a couple of honest-to-god fist-fights (one kicked off because someone got pissy about their neighbour's bbq). Uncertainty about income and employment, the constant curtain-twitchers REEing at everyone who dares to try and relax or make the best of their situation, it's all wearing on people, and the heat is stewing it all into a frenzy.

that's a well known fact, when weather goes hot crime and shootings skyrocket in the poorest of ghetto places. It's not just that people interact, heat has something to do with making people even more stupid and aggressive. There are stats to back this up, but I'm too lazy to dig 'em out.
 
@Kiwi Lime Pie - I hear you re the unemployment compensation. However, if you live in a very expensive area like ours and work in hospitality, a major employer, that extra $600/week is a godsend. Rents here are very high. Shit, everything here except bullshit from the government is expensive. Can assure you that extra money is put to good use paying rent, buying food, etc. In lower-cost areas, the extra money may be a little excessive. But if Congress can drop billions on corporations crying poor-mouth due to the ChiCom Flu, and blow six trillion dollars on two Middle East wars that have gained us nothing, I don't sweat providing a little extra cash to needy Americans.
@JosephStalin - I hear what you're saying about California's cost of living. Knowing someone that lives there, I know costs for everything (and not just housing) are through the roof. Just as we've been discussing the idea that "one size fits all" lockdowns are bad for states, the $600 weekly Federal benefit is similar. In some places, it's probably a windfall. In other places such as California, it's probably barely enough at best. It's a shame the Federal amount wasn't somehow based on regional cost of living data. but government programs and logic tend to be mutually exclusive.

Expect a lot more of this unless people move to stop it.
How can people stop China from continuing to entrench themselves into the global economy with their investment activity? It seems easier said than done. Here in the US, it's something that foreign nationals seem to know how to game the system better than American citizens. 🤔

The state is going to add "probable" deaths from Coronavirus to our death tolls.
In b4 the next spike in reported "deaths" leads to "OMG! Deaths spiked, we need to extend the shutdown!"
-----
Even though our region's restrictions haven't lifted yet, today's mid-afternoon traffic seemed to be a little heavier compared to past weeks. We'll see what Whitmer decides on or before the 28th when the current statewide restrictions are supposed to expire. The big question is whether she continue to work region by region or instead remain heavy-handed.

I can't recall who posted it in the past 24 or so hours, but the person seemed spot on that Whitmer's mood for bipartisanship seemed to disappear once she discovered her 45 cent per gallon (about 12 cents per liter) gas tax proposal for fixing roads was so unpopular that even fellow Democrats disliked it enough to speak out against it. How's that for bipartisanship? :biggrin:
 
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I went to Target yesterday and they had a sign up too. But nobody was enforcing it and I'd say about a third of the people inside were not wearing masks, or just had them draped around their chin. These same stores have also always had signs up saying "No pets" but people still bring their god damn dogs inside anyway (huge pet peeve of mine). In fact that's what I'm going to point out if any Karen tries to tell me I need to wear a mask. Bitch, you never said anything to people bringing Fluffy inside to sniff all the groceries and get dander everywhere.
In PA, almost everyone wears them in public, but when I go into Ohio, few do.

I wear a mask in stores just to be considerate to the cashiers making 8.hr in this republicunt state
 
that's a well known fact, when weather goes hot crime and shootings skyrocket in the poorest of ghetto places. It's not just that people interact, heat has something to do with making people even more stupid and aggressive. There are stats to back this up, but I'm too lazy to dig 'em out.
Thermic law, but most of the 'worth a read' articles are paywalled.
 
It's so weird to be stuck in the middle of this. One the one hand, gyms just opened in AZ, and my friends there are back to their martial arts practice (but no contact, I think?) while on the other hand, I'm hearing about yet another 31 year old (supposedly with no pre-existant conditions) who got put on a ventalator at the local hospital. It's like, "Are we still waking up expecting to die?" or are we in the home stretch and almost out of the woods?
 
TorBo Outing Report:

Seems things could be going back to the "old normal" despite talk of the "new normal". More stores are open now, though the theater remains closed. Panic buying is almost gone as well. Everyone still wears masks though. I saw a guy wearing a Pikachu mask (like just the mouth and the cheeks) - funny and disturbing.

(I've been somewhat of a "doomer", thinking the "new normal" of a "hypochondriac drive-thru society" really was the "new normal".)
 
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Great news! Today we recieved the first mask package from the Junta which ACTUALLY FOLLOWS REGULATIONS! I'm not kidding here, it's been multiple dozens of packages from the Junta and they all failed on lab. This one succeeded! And we're memeing it the fuck up! Just... the absolute state of this autonomy, we celebrate our masks actually following the law. Welcome to corruption.

On other funny news. Once again, after their initial law failed miserably, the gov finally listened to what Fernando Simon had been saying on press interviews since before they did it to begin with, and limited the mandatory masks to only being mandatory on areas in which social distancing can't be enforced. Such as public offices, public transport, emergency rooms, etc. And once more they will be given for free on such areas. Honestly. What exactly where they thinking? Of fucking course the law wasn't being enforced. Just... If they just listened from day 1 maybe we wouldn't be memeing them so much. But I am glad for the memes, so I can't be too angry. I'm just disapointed.

Oh also Madrid and Galicia decide to use their newfound powers to immediately crack down by closing pools and beaches again... yes those are the same people that claimed the gov's plan was draconic, not listening to all the fucking papers that say the salt and chlorine on beaches and pools kills the viri, exactly like Fernando fucking told them. So I'm betting they'll have to walk it back in less than a week. *siiigh.*

On other news the EU is pissing everyone off with some bullshit "green deal" that'd sabotage our farms even fucking further by trying to force the french "organic" model on everyone else. Funny. It's like they are begging for terrorism. Yeah let's sabotage the food supply during an economic crisis! I'm sure that won't fucking cause people to decide to "eat the (neoliberal) rich" in more ways than one!
The only caveat is that just because something complies with regulations, it doesn’t guarantee it is effective. It just means that suing you is harder.

Bit more chatter about the contact tracing app being developed by Apple & Google.
BBC . archive
It wasn't clear earlier, and it's stil not clear from that article, but it looks like Google & Apple have produced a cross compatible interface, and released an update to their OS/API . So the functionality won't just magically appear after your next update, but rather the infrastructure is now in place for individual countries to develop their own apps.
The UK and a few others are not going this route, preferring instead a more centralised model, that gives better control over operating behaviour.

From the article text, the G&A approach sounds rushed. They've hit some technical issues relating to current bluetooth operation, and are rushing out hacks to work round it. I'd bet any money on new security vulnerabilities being introduced by this work.


Related, this article suggests the UK is pushing ahead with a mandraulic traditional system using 25,000 paper pushing phone operators. Sounds like they aren't putting all their faith in new tech working correctly straight off the bat. archive .

Also can't find anything anywhere about how compulsory any of this is going to be. Or maybe not 'compulsory' , but make it awkward for you if you're not running it.

The fact that these OS updates are going out worldwide, and the control it gives to governments is concerning. Tracing exactly who all your troublemakers spend time with is an authoritarian's wet dream.
The other noise is that the Drumpf admin is rattling their sabers against the Silicone Mafia by “leaking” a few articles that “sources say” may be starting action against these homoglobo empires of pozz. Specifically Google and Apple. To me it sounds like just hot air to scare Twitter and Google into allowing Drumpf’s grassroots shit posters more leeway for the upcoming Battle Royale. I can’t imagine a tracing app passing constitutional muster in the USA though.
 
Cuomo's presser today was great fun. It was supposed to be a nice affair, highlighting what he's doing for POCs and a presentation by his daughter who is doing a makework project getting "ordinary New Yorkers" (ie PR/ad firms looking for pro bono exposure) to do a PSA about wearing masks. Of the 5, it's be one of the first two which highlighted Diversity that will win. Another was an ego stroker for Daddy with lots of Cuomo soundbytes, the last was a throwaway comedy one. All were NYC centered except one with countryesque music and a vaguely rural scene, clearly there as a sop to the Upstate Whiners.

But the best part was the Q&A, where he declared his new truth that actually his nursing home debacle was all Trump's fault, because Cuomo was just following the CDC guidelines. He actually said something like "so that should put that issue to rest." Then he got into it with the guy from the NY Times, and boy did he sound like Trump, blasting them, calling the guy out personally to his face. Said everything Trump would except "fake news."

Good times.
 
The other noise is that the Drumpf admin is rattling their sabers against the Silicone Mafia by “leaking” a few articles that “sources say” may be starting action against these homoglobo empires of pozz. Specifically Google and Apple. To me it sounds like just hot air to scare Twitter and Google into allowing Drumpf’s grassroots shit posters more leeway for the upcoming Battle Royale. I can’t imagine a tracing app passing constitutional muster in the USA though.

I went looking to find which countries are going for the Google-Apple approach , and which aren't . Shit Copy & Paste journalism has so far prevented my finding out more than this : 22 countries on five continents and 5 US states.
The companies say 22 countries in five continents as well as a number of states in the U.S. — including Alabama, North Dakota, South Carolina, and South Dakota — have either incorporated the tool into their apps or plan to.
I was hoping to see a pattern for which major countries went with them, and which didn't. Five Eyes, EU, Asian etc.

(shit) sources:
Technology Review . archive
Android Authority . archive
Android Police . archive (best one, maybe?)

Note. This technical architecture from Google and Apple seems like a pretty good design in an ideal world. The low energy bluetooth gives a good approximation to "people you've been exposed to" better than a central GPS database. The anonymising approach seems plausible, again more so than a central database. If the polling frequency is rapid enough it could work pretty well. The downsides
1) voluntary uptake. It's pretty pointless unless a large number of people run it.
2) I don't trust anybody anymore. I don't like or trust Google, or Apple or any other Silicon Valley data pig. I don't particularly trust our government. I don't think I'll be running the app, I turn my phone off often enough anyway when I'm out and about. But I'm aware I'm not normal in this, so I can't guess how the masses will take to it. Maybe they'll go for it? The propaganda tsunami has got people pretty scared, beyond all rational relation to the actual mortality risk.
 
It looks to me like they're at least trying to put together a system that has enough data access to do it's stated job and no more. Not allowing GPS use is a big point in it's favor there.

Still, I'd be amazed if it's possible to build something that couldn't be badly abused and/or create vulnerabilities that won't be found until later. If everybody involved were angels this would be extremely useful. I don't think for a second that could ever be the case. It ought to have a "Press this button to destroy all data & uninstall" function for a start, Which isn't something I expect to see, ever.

There's potentially something very good here but nobody is going to pass on the potential huge data-grab forever. Only way to realistically avoid that is to never install anything that does this stuff in the first place.
 
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