Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[Simpadoo]

Yup, power trips are more addictive than cigarettes or heroin. The wise person remembers this for election time. The little Hitlers have shown their true colors. They are counting on the sheeple to forget this, in due time. I don't think so. Anyone who votes to re-elect them is the dumbest motherfucker on Earth.

Would also say people are becoming less sensitive to the sight of people wearing masks. If everyone was wearing the exact same type of mask, people would be more concerned. But there are more styles of masks out there than can be imagined. Sort of like everyone having to wear a hat outside. Takes away some of the intimidation factor. And as soon as the mask requirement is dropped, believe very, very few will choose to wear masks.

Some say wearing masks will be a new cultural norm. No fucking way. When something has been imposed on you, for any reason, you are extremely unlikely to continue with it once it isn't required. And any Karen with the sheer gall to ask someone where their mask is deserves what she gets. Just waiting to tell a Karen my mask is shoved up Newsom's ass.




On a different subject, have seen advertisements in the local alternative weekly about the free meals for qualifying seniors. Had a picture of one of the meals. I've shit better-looking stuff than that. Makes me glad I don't qualify.

Restaurants in Cali are open now outside of LA. With tables. I didn’t check out any bars but most people have seen through this ruse by now.

 

[D.Va]

LOL holy shit

This is probably in response to the latest downing street press briefing, where Boris aide Dominic Cummings was caught breaking travel restrictions not just once, but twice, by the press and lying about it. Someone's getting fired

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

Coastal Georgia Update: Fast food chains are still mostly-drive through only. Some independent restaurants are at full capacity, others at limited, some still closed (and may never come open again RIP). About 1/2 of Kroger employees were wearing masks, and only about 1/4th of patrons (which at least most of the oldies were wearing masks). In the parks and public spaces nobody is wearing masks, and the 92*F/33*C weather is doing more to keep people away from everything thats not water-related than is ChiCom Coof. Neighborhood pool came open this weekend.

North Florida Update: Traveled two hours south for a few days and observed a few things. Brother's college still has them doing online classes, but his internship is fully staffed in-person. Same thing as above with fast food chains. An absolute 9/10 hottie of a waitress got me to simp out a 75% in-cash tip by batting her eyelashes and mentioning she had been out of work for a month. State parks were loaded with people (especially bikers).
Jacksonville traffic is still Jacksonville traffic.

Also does anyone have any information on deaths for heart disease and non-COVID pneumonia for 2020? I recall hearing there was a dramatic decrease in both right around the time COVID "initally/officially" hit and states started going into lockdown, but I can't find it.

 

[nya001]

Interesting points - but yes, I picked up on the English 'charity' and thought you implied he stayed for free.

About masks, the WHO explains how to wear a mask properly, otherwise it doesn't work (source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/dis...9/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks )

- Before putting on a mask, clean hands with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.

- Cover mouth and nose with mask and make sure there are no gaps between your face and the mask.

- Avoid touching the mask while using it; if you do, clean your hands with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.

- Replace the mask with a new one as soon as it is damp and do not re-use single-use masks.

- To remove the mask: remove it from behind (do not touch the front of mask); discard immediately in a closed bin; clean hands with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.

I don't know anyone who does that.

Again the WHO says don't wear a mask if you're healthy:

- If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with COVID-19.

- Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.

- Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.

- If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it and dispose of it properly.

But people want to wear a mask to feel they are doing something. The same behaviour was observed at the time that volcano in Iceland cancelled many flights in Europe: even if it was faster to wait for the air to clear and fly to their destination, people were taking planes with weird connections even if it was illogical, as the connections would make them arrive later. The same behaviour is observed in traffic jams: people still go through them even if it might be faster to sit somewhere and have a coffee or something to make it clear.

(here about waiting and perception: The Handbook of Behavioral Operations, Karen Donohue, Elena Katok, Stephen Leider
John Wiley & Sons, 6 nov. 2018 - this is a real book and costs about 120 US)

Also the WHO says 1 metre is enough, not 2 metres:

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters

Anyway, unless someone is behaving like a surgeon before operation, these things won't work too much, people touch the same things, etc.

But can you imagine any government now saying carry on as usual, there's nothing we can do about it, just don't lick each others' faces (but you weren't doing it anyway, so fine) people would make a scandal and say you are not doing anything.

Speaking of Spain, having masks, restricting stuff etc. is being all together and supporting each other in blissful solidarity is not without use if one wants the Catalans to forget about separating. It's not the right time etc. Like winning the World (Football/Soccer) Cup

But interesting that you (in Spain) say a Canadian would prefer to be in Canada because of their health system, many people from cold countries and good health systems (e.g. Germany) think it's so great to retire in Spain, nice weather etc. I suppose the grass is greener etc :-)

 

[afternoon_tea]

Would also say people are becoming less sensitive to the sight of people wearing masks. If everyone was wearing the exact same type of mask, people would be more concerned. But there are more styles of masks out there than can be imagined. Sort of like everyone having to wear a hat outside. Takes away some of the intimidation factor. And as soon as the mask requirement is dropped, believe very, very few will choose to wear masks.

Yeah, before it was required I thought it would be really spooky to see everyone wearing masks but it really doesn't seem all that scary, just kind of mundane. Maybe it's because I am out working every day and I'm just used to it. Things actually don't feel that different when I'm at work, people are just doing the same thing but with masks on. It doesn't really feel "normal" but it's not really scary or anything.

Back when this was still mostly in China and people were sharing the spooky videos of empty streets with crows flying everywhere I think a lot of people, myself included, were like "omg, it's exactly like a pandemic movie" and I thought it would be like that here, but the reality of it is very different. Things just feel kind of annoying now because of all the rules.

I can't tell if people are like "It's so scary and spooky out there!" because they're not going out much and just don't know, or if they are trying to still pretend it's like 28 Days Later because that would be more exciting, but I think as more people return to work they'll realize it's not really like that at all and more people will get sick of the over the top fear mongering.

I thought I'd be seeing my coworkers dropping and seizing like in those videos from China, but when I did have coworkers catch it was just like, they stayed home for a few weeks and then came back and were like "yeah it really sucked but it actually wasn't that bad". Obviously some people get way sicker than others, but it's becoming obvious that that is not the case for most people who get it.

I've actually seen more coworkers get more severely ill during an average flu season. No one else has caught it (or atleast known they caught it) since the middle of March. It's very odd, because we have a high infection rate in this county and we're around hundreds of people every day. And my coworkers are the type to eat their lunch with their dirty gloves on and most of them take the bus and live in very dense housing areas.

I'm confused about why it spreads so fast in some situations and not others. I think most of us working in grocery stores were expecting we'd be among the first to all get sick, but it hasn't been like that, just a few cases here and there in different stores. There has only been one death of a grocery store worker here, and this is the 3rd worse state for infections per capita last I checked.

It would be interesting to see the results of antibody tests in high traffic stores. I wonder if a lot of us caught it and just never knew.

 

[UntimelyDhelmise]

Yeah, before it was required I thought it would be really spooky to see everyone wearing masks but it really doesn't seem all that scary, just kind of mundane. Maybe it's because I am out working every day and I'm just used to it. Things actually don't feel that different when I'm at work, people are just doing the same thing but with masks on. It doesn't really feel "normal" but it's not really scary or anything.

Back when this was still mostly in China and people were sharing the spooky videos of empty streets with crows flying everywhere I think a lot of people, myself included, were like "omg, it's exactly like a pandemic movie" and I thought it would be like that here, but the reality of it is very different. Things just feel kind of annoying now because of all the rules.

I can't tell if people are like "It's so scary and spooky out there!" because they're not going out much and just don't know, or if they are trying to still pretend it's like 28 Days Later because that would be more exciting, but I think as more people return to work they'll realize it's not really like that at all and more people will get sick of the over the top fear mongering.

I thought I'd be seeing my coworkers dropping and seizing like in those videos from China, but when I did have coworkers catch it was just like, they stayed home for a few weeks and then came back and were like "yeah it really sucked but it actually wasn't that bad". Obviously some people get way sicker than others, but it's becoming obvious that that is not the case for most people who get it.

I've actually seen more coworkers get more severely ill during an average flu season. No one else has caught it (or atleast known they caught it) since the middle of March. It's very odd, because we have a high infection rate in this county and we're around hundreds of people every day. And my coworkers are the type to eat their lunch with their dirty gloves on and most of them take the bus and live in very dense housing areas.

I'm confused about why it spreads so fast in some situations and not others. I think most of us working in grocery stores were expecting we'd be among the first to all get sick, but it hasn't been like that, just a few cases here and there in different stores. There has only been one death of a grocery store worker here, and this is the 3rd worse state for infections per capita last I checked.

It would be interesting to see the results of antibody tests in high traffic stores. I wonder if a lot of us caught it and just never knew.

I'm no virologist, but if I were to hazard a guess it'd be what many have already suggested and say it's different strains. This thing spread over the planet very quickly and in a short amount of time, which meant there were who knows how many mutations happening at a rapid-fire rate. In other words, some locations probably just got unlucky with more aggressive strains. Roll of the dice.

And that's before factoring in cultural differences, like Italy's propensity of touch for even the simplest greetings and the Middle East, licking walls...

 

[Simpadoo]

Yeah, before it was required I thought it would be really spooky to see everyone wearing masks but it really doesn't seem all that scary, just kind of mundane. Maybe it's because I am out working every day and I'm just used to it. Things actually don't feel that different when I'm at work, people are just doing the same thing but with masks on. It doesn't really feel "normal" but it's not really scary or anything.

Back when this was still mostly in China and people were sharing the spooky videos of empty streets with crows flying everywhere I think a lot of people, myself included, were like "omg, it's exactly like a pandemic movie" and I thought it would be like that here, but the reality of it is very different. Things just feel kind of annoying now because of all the rules.

I can't tell if people are like "It's so scary and spooky out there!" because they're not going out much and just don't know, or if they are trying to still pretend it's like 28 Days Later because that would be more exciting, but I think as more people return to work they'll realize it's not really like that at all and more people will get sick of the over the top fear mongering.

I thought I'd be seeing my coworkers dropping and seizing like in those videos from China, but when I did have coworkers catch it was just like, they stayed home for a few weeks and then came back and were like "yeah it really sucked but it actually wasn't that bad". Obviously some people get way sicker than others, but it's becoming obvious that that is not the case for most people who get it.

I've actually seen more coworkers get more severely ill during an average flu season. No one else has caught it (or atleast known they caught it) since the middle of March. It's very odd, because we have a high infection rate in this county and we're around hundreds of people every day. And my coworkers are the type to eat their lunch with their dirty gloves on and most of them take the bus and live in very dense housing areas.

I'm confused about why it spreads so fast in some situations and not others. I think most of us working in grocery stores were expecting we'd be among the first to all get sick, but it hasn't been like that, just a few cases here and there in different stores. There has only been one death of a grocery store worker here, and this is the 3rd worse state for infections per capita last I checked.

It would be interesting to see the results of antibody tests in high traffic stores. I wonder if a lot of us caught it and just never knew.

I may think antibody tests are interesting if they publish their accuracy numbers and they end up being 90% repeatable and reproducible. Since it’s probably and attribute test, probably don’t cut the mustard.

 

[nya001]

I'm no virologist, but if I were to hazard a guess it'd be what many have already suggested and say it's different strains. This thing spread over the planet very quickly and in a short amount of time, which meant there were who knows how many mutations happening at a rapid-fire rate. In other words, some locations probably just got unlucky with more aggressive strains. Roll of the dice.

And that's before factoring in cultural differences, like Italy's propensity of touch for even the simplest greetings and the Middle East, licking walls...

In my also non-virologist opinion, I also think there might be different mutations of the same virus going around but usually the worse strains tend to disappear because they kill their hosts quickly (the plague is caused by bacteria) and also I agree that if it's a culture of kissing on the cheek, licking walls and eating with the hands and doing things that are unhygienic in general they will probably catch things :-) seems all vrry logical to me :-)

 

[heyitsmike]

We kinda do greet each other with two kisses on the cheek or a hug in many places of andalucia.

Off topic but this week I keep getting 'On this day in 2008' notifications from Amazon Photos from when I did study abroad in Granada. Man I miss Ehpaña...

Edit:

Spoiler: Here's a few

 

[JosephStalin]

This may have been posted, but if not, here it is.

That crazy bitch Whitmer has extended her state's house arrest to 12 June. Utterly delusional. See how people "obey" that shit, cunt.

https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/michigan-gov-gretchen-whitmer-extends-stay-home-order-to-june-12

https://archive.vn/5eKLo

Added: This clown's talking shit. He's Ohio's little Hitler.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/this-is-not-about-politics-gop-governor-says-wearing-masks-is-public-health-issue/ar-BB14wPPn?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=mailsignout

https://archive.vn/tmrOY

Hmmm...but notice he didn't say anything about people wearing masks giving shit to people not wearing masks. Gotta be fair, bud. I don't say anything to anyone wearing a mask, but they'd better not say anything to me. Have no problem telling Karens to fuck off. Only wear the mask when going into stores.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...-emotional-plea-against-mask-shaming-n1213801

https://archive.vn/nxGCN


One more...the Major League Baseball season would be almost two months old, if this was a normal season. No games so far. Funny, don't miss baseball at all. Usually something I listen to while doing other things on line, will toggle over to the game if something exciting happens. Wonder how many other people aren't missing baseball, either. And should baseball actually follow that 67-page protocol for starting the season, doubt I'll watch more than a few innings, to actually see this shit happening. Have plenty of other things to do with my time, anyway.

Going to be REAL interesting to see what happens with the NFL. Football is an extreme contact sport. You cannot run plays with players "social distancing". The games will need to be played for all the fans or none of the fans. Just like baseball, can't have fans sitting six feet apart. Should the NFL put out a protocol similar to Major League Baseball's, no need to waste a minute watching the resulting farce. Training camps start in about sixty days, not long at all.

 

[Barnard]

Absurd things that happen in Europe:

Poland decided in April to have a quarantine for everyone coming into Poland except for lorry drivers.

Then on 4 May they allowed everyone who is abroad for work in but made an exception for "people executing medical professions" and people working "in houses for social help" (the latter just exist in Poland), both still needed a quarantine no matter what they actually did:

(Polish) https://www.gov.pl/web/mswia/nowe-zasady-kwarantanny-po-przekroczeniu-granicy

This meant women registered in Germany (where it's legal) as practising whores could travel to Poland without a quarantine, while a radiologist who looks at bones online and never sees a live patient needed a quarantine.

This was corrected on 16 May (Polish: https://www.strazgraniczna.pl/pl/aktualnosci/8448,Koronawirus-zasady-kwarantanny.html )

Currently people in Poland need to wear a mask in public (Polish: http://dziennikustaw.gov.pl/D2020000079201.pdf )

but the law provides for some exceptions, among which "health reasons" and the law expressly says "no medical certificate is required"

so first anyone can say the mask is detrimental to their health (being nervous is a medical condition)

second they make people wear a mask because of a sickness but if someone is sick they are exempt from a mask.

To give a small counterpoint, it was said the masks are mainly for asymptomatic spreaders. There could be (could have been?) a large number of them walking around, so if some percentage of the population is wearing masks, some people who have the virus but don't have symptoms will be covered and will have a harder time spreading it. That was the explanation at least.

The law itself is more of a honor system than an actual law. It's still rather silly and many people simply don't bother (probably will be rescinded soon anyway), but I'd rather have this than have the police hound me and give me tickets because I forgot to cover my mug.

 

[FatalTater]

I have a dumb question - Where did the whole "Run out and buy toilet paper" thing come from originally? I remember people doing it, and I remember when the stores started running out of it, but why toilet paper specifically?

 

[FuckedUp]

I have a dumb question - Where did the whole "Run out and buy toilet paper" thing come from originally? I remember people doing it, and I remember when the stores started running out of it, but why toilet paper specifically?

Probably some random anon on /pol/ CVG #xxx.

 

[Cpl. Long Dong Silver]

I have a dumb question - Where did the whole "Run out and buy toilet paper" thing come from originally? I remember people doing it, and I remember when the stores started running out of it, but why toilet paper specifically?

You can get to heaven with a dirty ass. I'm pretty sure that's written down in Deuteronomy.

 

[nya001]

I may think antibody tests are interesting if they publish their accuracy numbers and they end up being 90% repeatable and reproducible. Since it’s probably and attribute test, probably don’t cut the mustard.

actually some home antibody tests were sold in Germany for 30 or 70 euros and reported 95% accuracy but they were quickly illegal to sell.

Why? several reasons:

- a test done at home can be contaminated etc.

- it takes 5 days to develop the antibodies.

- if somebody tests positive and are asymptomatic they won't be treated and had to stay home anyway. If they live alone they will still have to go out and buy food etc. and take the same precautions like everyone else.

- if somebody tests positive and feel so bad they need a hospital they will be restested anyway because the hospital doesn't believe a home test

- if they test negative it doesn't exclude the virus anyway because of the 5 days and the inaccuracy, also people could get infected 30 minutes after the test anyway.

Also at current levels a 90% accuracy rate is very inaccurate. Let's take New York, which had lots of cases. Statistics (worldometer) show 275,000 "active cases" with a 1% "serious or critical". Interesting that official statistics are hard to come by, and the very low "serious or critical" (50% lower than the world average) can suggest "active cases" is inflated.

But fine 275,000 in a population of 19.5 million that's 1.4 %

So, out of 10,000 people in New York state, 140 have the virus and 9860 are healthy.

If the test is 90% accurate, then it will show 10% of the healthy people to be sick = 986 false positives.

And it will miss 10% of the true positives = 126 real positives

in total, the test will show 1012 people to be positives.

But we know that only 140 are actually infected.

So if somebody in New York tests positive, they have a 140/1012 chance that the positive is accurate at current infection levels, which is 14%.

Now with the negatives:

Out of 9860 real negatives, 90% will be accurate, which is 8874 reported negative (9860-986)

Out of 140 real positives, at 90% accuracy, 14 will be reported negative.

In total, 8888 will be reported negative.

We know that there are really 9860 negative. If somebody is negative on the test, they have at current infection levels a 8888/9860 chance of being truly negative, which is 91.8% accuracy.

Here is Wikipedia making it more complicated as it goes is more detail ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_and_negative_predictive_values )

there's an online calculator at https://www.medcalc.org/calc/diagnostic_test.php so you can play with the numbers, I tried with a test that is 99% accurate, I still got 59% in the positive predicted value (but almost 100% in the negative predicted value) for a disease that exists in 1.4% of the population.

Note that the 1.4% refer to the population in general, so if you increase that 1.4% by testing only people with symptoms or people who came from areas with the virus, or anything, the results change.

 

[ColtWalker1847]

I have a dumb question - Where did the whole "Run out and buy toilet paper" thing come from originally? I remember people doing it, and I remember when the stores started running out of it, but why toilet paper specifically?

Australian facebook. I'm not kidding.

Way back when this had China shut down and the rest of the world's preppers were gearing up some galaxy brained individual noted that of the essentials paper products were imported. They naturally assumed it was from the now shuttered China not North America. Panic and hoarding ensued and it spread everywhere on idiot social media inertia.

 

[FatalTater]

Australian facebook. I'm not kidding.

Way back when this had China shut down and the rest of the world's preppers were gearing up some galaxy brained individual noted that of the essentials paper products were imported. They naturally assumed it was from the now shuttered China not North America. Panic and hoarding ensued and it spread everywhere on idiot social media inertia.

Doesn't Australia have terlet paper factories? Coulda sworn they did.

 

[Simpadoo]

actually some home antibody tests were sold in Germany for 30 or 70 euros and reported 95% accuracy but they were quickly illegal to sell.

Why? several reasons:

- a test done at home can be contaminated etc.

- it takes 5 days to develop the antibodies.

- if somebody tests positive and are asymptomatic they won't be treated and had to stay home anyway. If they live alone they will still have to go out and buy food etc. and take the same precautions like everyone else.

- if somebody tests positive and feel so bad they need a hospital they will be restested anyway because the hospital doesn't believe a home test

- if they test negative it doesn't exclude the virus anyway because of the 5 days and the inaccuracy, also people could get infected 30 minutes after the test anyway.

Also at current levels a 90% accuracy rate is very inaccurate. Let's take New York, which had lots of cases. Statistics (worldometer) show 275,000 "active cases" with a 1% "serious or critical". Interesting that official statistics are hard to come by, and the very low "serious or critical" (50% lower than the world average) can suggest "active cases" is inflated.

But fine 275,000 in a population of 19.5 million that's 1.4 %

So, out of 10,000 people in New York state, 140 have the virus and 9860 are healthy.

If the test is 90% accurate, then it will show 10% of the healthy people to be sick = 986 false positives.

And it will miss 10% of the true positives = 126 real positives

in total, the test will show 1012 people to be positives.

But we know that only 140 are actually infected.

So if somebody in New York tests positive, they have a 140/1012 chance that the positive is accurate at current infection levels, which is 14%.

Now with the negatives:

Out of 9860 real negatives, 90% will be accurate, which is 8874 reported negative (9860-986)

Out of 140 real positives, at 90% accuracy, 14 will be reported negative.

In total, 8888 will be reported negative.

We know that there are really 9860 negative. If somebody is negative on the test, they have at current infection levels a 8888/9860 chance of being truly negative, which is 91.8% accuracy.

Here is Wikipedia making it more complicated as it goes is more detail ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_and_negative_predictive_values )

there's an online calculator at https://www.medcalc.org/calc/diagnostic_test.php so you can play with the numbers, I tried with a test that is 99% accurate, I still got 59% in the positive predicted value (but almost 100% in the negative predicted value) for a disease that exists in 1.4% of the population.

Note that the 1.4% refer to the population in general, so if you increase that 1.4% by testing only people with symptoms or people who came from areas with the virus, or anything, the results change.

Bear in mind that it isn’t just the test. It’s a measuring system so if reproducibility isn’t addressed, it’s pretty meaningless.

This is probably at the root of the tests being pulled: if the person doing the sampling or reading the test can have different results based on the way they apply it, then the system accuracy is even lower than that.

90% accuracy on an attribute measurement system is pretty good.

I doubt that it’s really that though for the reasons I outlined above.

 

[JustWhy]

At this year beginning I was a bit afraid, but longer I observe what's going on, less I fear...
That whole coronavirus situation looks like 5-D chess for me, one big, awful, worldwide, elaborate scam (I do not mean that disease don't exist, of course it is here and people getting sick, etc.)

 

[ditto]

Arrogant and offensive
Can you imagine having to work with these truth twisters?

Describes the Civil Service to a T