MrJokerRager
kiwifarms.net
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- Nov 2, 2019
Trump's personality alone will carry him to a potential win along with keeping the economy great. That Tulsa rally really brought the life back in the GOP with the greatest speech of his Presidency.
2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.
- Thread starter Pickle Dick
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jje100010001
kiwifarms.net
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- Jan 28, 2020
The rallies definitely are a start to getting the ball rolling, but the fight for the economy is going to be hard one.
The Dems and the establishment have every interest in keeping it depressed going into November, and the president can only do so much.
Parscale will also need to prevent a repeat of the Tulsa underattendance and increase the momentum.
As for personality, Trump needs to moderate his online persona for the election IMO- no unnecessary and undisciplined Twitter flaming unless absolutely needed. In person? Spit out the truth, I’d say.
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- Dec 21, 2018
Between Trump's approval rating being higher than Obama's at this point in his presidency and Nancy Pelosi is trying to pin George Floyd's murder on the GOP it doesn't really gel with him being so far behind.
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- Dec 16, 2019
We need a doomer sticker.
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- Aug 15, 2016
All polls are bullshit.
At a minimum, the breakdowns need to be provided. Is it an accurate cross section of the country or is it another bullshit D+16 push poll?
I’ll say the real results are reading between the lines. The latest tell is the debates. If Biden actually was 15 points ahead of Trump, they would not agree to three debates where you have no idea what Biden is going to do. I’d say realistically internal DNC polling has them pretty close with each other where they can’t afford to skip out on them.
At a minimum, the breakdowns need to be provided. Is it an accurate cross section of the country or is it another bullshit D+16 push poll?
I’ll say the real results are reading between the lines. The latest tell is the debates. If Biden actually was 15 points ahead of Trump, they would not agree to three debates where you have no idea what Biden is going to do. I’d say realistically internal DNC polling has them pretty close with each other where they can’t afford to skip out on them.
- Joined
- Apr 16, 2019
Yeah you really can't tell exactly where the race is at with so much flux from the pandemic and recession and riots.
It's like trying to call red or black on a roulette wheel while it's still spinning fast. You might be good or you might not, you just gotta play wait and see until it slows down.
But there's way too much giddiness coming from the Dems over a situation they just found themselves in four years ago. Apparently they didn't learn their lesson the first time but I'm willing for the GOP to show them again.
It's like trying to call red or black on a roulette wheel while it's still spinning fast. You might be good or you might not, you just gotta play wait and see until it slows down.
But there's way too much giddiness coming from the Dems over a situation they just found themselves in four years ago. Apparently they didn't learn their lesson the first time but I'm willing for the GOP to show them again.
Super-Chevy454
kiwifarms.net
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- Apr 2, 2018
We can count of Project Veritas to know what'll Facebook do for the 2020 elections.
One Youtuber gived me some chuckles.
One Youtuber gived me some chuckles.
InsolentGaylord
kiwifarms.net
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- Sep 13, 2019
Alright on Ladbrokes Biden is 8/13 to win. What the hell happened to increase his chances so much?
Trump has gone down. Hmm...betting on Trump is tempting, but what the heck happened exactly?
Trump has gone down. Hmm...betting on Trump is tempting, but what the heck happened exactly?
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- Mar 9, 2020
InsolentGaylord
kiwifarms.net
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- Sep 13, 2019
What did they do exactly?
Regardless...I may bet on him soon to win over 50% of the popular vote.
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- Apr 16, 2019
It's the middle of a simultaneous pandemic, recession and civil unrest. We're living through 1918, 1968 and 2008 all at the same time. And a little 1984 thrown in for good measure.
There's not a politician in the world who wouldn't take some temporary lumps dealing with all that.
InsolentGaylord
kiwifarms.net
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- Sep 13, 2019
MrJokerRager
kiwifarms.net
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- Nov 2, 2019
If Trump loses Tucker's confidence, he loses the election. He is probably right wing Cronkite at this rate he is going.
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- Apr 16, 2019
Tucker Carlson is not that important. He's really not.
Picklechu
kiwifarms.net
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- Jan 2, 2014
Polls are generally pretty worthless before Labor Day. That being said, they certainly aren't good for Trump. Using polls from June to try and divine what's going to happen in November is pointless, however.
I still haven't decided how I'm going to vote, although since I live in an extremely red state, my vote for president literally doesn't matter. I might vote for Trump, or I might vote for Jo Jorgensen as a protest vote. I probably won't cast a write-in vote, since my state doesn't count them anymore unless write-ins receive the most votes or they're more than the difference between the winner and the runner-up. I've never voted for a Democrat, and I'm definitely not going to start now.
I still haven't decided how I'm going to vote, although since I live in an extremely red state, my vote for president literally doesn't matter. I might vote for Trump, or I might vote for Jo Jorgensen as a protest vote. I probably won't cast a write-in vote, since my state doesn't count them anymore unless write-ins receive the most votes or they're more than the difference between the winner and the runner-up. I've never voted for a Democrat, and I'm definitely not going to start now.
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- Feb 19, 2017
Given the current situation, I'm not too surprised that Trump's approval numbers would take a big hit in the polls even without the usual media rigging and fear of cancel culture.
Like someone else said earlier, he's had to deal with a global pandemic, widespread violent civil unrest, and a major economic recession all at once. 2020 is basically 1918. 1968, and 2008 all in one and at the exact same time for the most part.
But at the same time, if the economy stabilizes in the later parts of the summer and autumn and he can keep his base energized and active, I think he can pull it off given how weak Biden is as a candidate.
Any polls are suspect in today's political climate, and even if they weren't, you don't get any real feel for how it could turn out until mid-September at the earliest. Hell, even as late as October 2016, everyone assumed Hillary Clinton would win, both in terms of probability and in the polls the media used.
The one thing 2020 has consistently shown is that the most freakish of things can and often do happen.
- Joined
- Apr 16, 2019
People don't understand how much things can change in 131 days. Even if Trump was still where he was at prepandemic we couldn't take it for granted.
For reference, here's a post from 131 days ago. It has absolutely to resemblance to what ultimately happened.
Picklechu
kiwifarms.net
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- Jan 2, 2014
Pretty much. This year is like 1968 and 1980 had a baby, and 1920 is its godmother.
It's looking like Biden's biggest weakness is an enthusiasm gap; that may not matter, since the anti-Trump vote will presumably be at a similar level as it was in the midterms, but we'll see. The fundamentals still strongly favor Biden, since he's basically guaranteed 218 electoral votes compared to Trump's 124 "safe" electoral votes, meaning Biden only needs 52 to Trump's 146. AZ, FL, NE-02, NC, and WI are the true toss-ups, which constitute 65 electoral votes. Michigan and Minnesota will probably go to Biden, although Trump has an outside shot at those 26 EVs. GA, IA, and OH (40 EVs) lean towards Trump, but they'll be competitive.
Elections like this are generally a referendum on the incumbent. Trump might try framing the election as a binary choice between order and anarchy, which BLM/Antifa/etc are helping him do, although I expect that narrative to fade by the fall to be honest. I also don't think Howie Hawkins will help him in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin the way that Jill Stein did in 2016, so that's also going to hurt him.
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- Dec 16, 2019
If Biden wins, I think the country is fucked. Not because Trump is great or Biden is evil, but because violence will have become the answer to getting what you want politically.
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- Dec 21, 2018
The silver lining will be that voters will most likely toss him in 2024 and the the Republicans can run a less divisive candidate on the platform of healing the country. Sad what makes Trump so entertaining is what might cost him the election despite his success.
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