The Last of Us Franchise - Because it's apparently a franchise now. This thread has been double-DMCA’d by Sony Interactive Entertainment.

[Zeke Von Genbu]

Well, we can calculate the time value of money. If we assume that $100 million could have achieved, let's say, a 7% annual rate of return over the 7 years of game development if it had been invested elsewhere, instead:
View attachment 1419202

After 7 years, that $100 million would become $161 million. So the game would need to achieve at least $61 million of profit to make up for the lost investment yield that the $100 million would have otherwise achieved.

So, to be considered a success over a generic investment, the game needs to achieve:
$100 million budget + $61 million (investment opportunity cost) + $100 million (marketing cost equal to $100 million budget) = $261 million in sales

I still think this is well short of my $720 estimate that 20 million in sales would bring in (which is probably a conservative estimate, because I assumed only 4 million sales at the $60 price point).

As for your question, what is ND's cut? Well, did Sony also front some of the development costs since this is a Playstation exclusive? (They did something similar, for example, on Street Fighter V.) If Sony and ND shared the burden of the development costs, then they share the spoils of the sales revenue and I think the break-even point would probably be about the same.

P.S. I don't think this game is going to sell anywhere near 20 million units. My prediction, earlier in the thread, was 8 million and I stand by that. At 8 million sales, I think the game will turn a profit, but nowhere near what the expectations were for a tentpole game like this. It will be like The Rise of Skywalker, which should have made twice as much as it did.

While you can calculate compound interest that way, if you want to be truly accurate you need to calculate when it was spent (as it isn't like we spent 200M right out the gate from year 1). This actually helps your case as it lowers the amount of time needed for some, but not all, of that money to earn. I'm just autistic so I need to make that clear. My main point in commenting to you was that you can't just take 60 x 4M and determine that you've made a profit and a good investment.

To get into more detail we have to add a different aspect to this, risk return trade offs.

What we also need is a value determined for risk payment, as in we need to determine what an investor would need to accept a proposal for a 7 year long project like this and how risky they might consider a project that is going in a "daring new direction". So you need to not only consider the price point for time value of money, but you need to add an additional amount for an investor to consider this project worth it with all the risks that may exist from their perspective. All investments have risks but some yield more then others and the longer the time to develop something typically means more risk is involved, and I don't know what a suit would consider a reasonable risk return for a project like this.

For example if in your example if we assume 7% for a normal investment, this is usually stock or some other normal fairly stable investment that typical suits understand inside and out, then this project needs say 12 or 13% (very arbitrary number) due to the additional risks determined. Such issues could be considered such as: long development in general, having to generate new technology that might take forever to make and may or may not yield expected results (especially when you have to make it stable on a console) which can result in wasted time and budget, or "daring new directions" in the story like killing characters people like. Those just come off the top of my head.

I also highly doubt Sony is giving ND a 100% fair even split down the middle, Sony has way more bargining power then ND in this arrangement as they front some of the costs, publish the game, and provide the platform that ND's customers are most familiar with while being the current leader in the console market. Sony also takes hits on console sales, so software sales need to be much more lucrative margin wise to make up for this loss. This is completely ignoring any distribution and retailer fees outside of these 2 parties which also put more cuts against ND.

In closing, I don't think this game will just break-even, nor will I think it'll dramatically bomb, what I am saying is that that $60 most of it is likely not going to ND at all in the grand scheme of things and that a rough estimate of a budget to generate revenue over are not the only factors that determine TLOU2's success as a financial investment.

 

[Namekian George Floyd]

Pretty sure I'm almost done the game and to be honest, I'd rate it like a 5.5 so far. The story is meh but it has it's moments like the flashbacks with Joel, I'm playing on hard so some things take a couple tries and I'm actually being challenged which is important to me in a game. The memes and fan backlash are still funny but I can't legit call it a bad game at this point. It passes as slightly above average for me, it's no Dead Space or Resident Evil but it's passable and fun at times.

 

[moocow]

Abby has the exact same build as the man of 100 muscular jokes

MST3K - Space Mutiny - The many names of David Ryder

All the names given to the lead character in Space Mutiny, David Ryder.

www.youtube.com

This was one of their finest. There are very few episodes of MST3k that are superior to this one.

 

[SteelPlatedHeart]

Pretty sure I'm almost done the game and to be honest, I'd rate it like a 5.5 so far. The story is meh but it has it's moments like the flashbacks with Joel, I'm playing on hard so some things take a couple tries and I'm actually being challenged which is important to me in a game. The memes and fan backlash are still funny but I can't legit call it a bad game at this point. It passes as slightly above average for me, it's no Dead Space or Resident Evil but it's passable and fun at times.

General consensus is that it’s mainly the story that drags this game down heavily.

 

[Cubanodun]

You cant spell Ignorant without IGN

He forgot to mention that the sales went downhill after the first week, Sony consider 10 million units a success, at best like someone said here will get 6 or 8 millions, would not be surprised if it get ported to PC just to squeeze a few shekels more

For perspective the worst thing that ubisoft hsa made in years, AC Unity sold 10 millions and is still a hot garbage

Edit: ayyyyy

 

[Namekian George Floyd]

General consensus is that it’s mainly the story that drags this game down heavily.

If rating on story alone, I'd give it like a 4 and it's not worse just because it has it's high points while the moment-to-moment stuff is kinda just boring and most of the cast is just fucking awful and devoid of any real personality. Like the pregnant Jewish chick and the Asian guy, what is compelling me to really give a shit about them? I honestly think Abby's supporting cast is better, like the cult weirdos she helps out are characters I actually find fascinating.

All and all, I just don't see how Cuckmann could think this is high art and tasteful story-telling. He pulls off some of the cheapest tricks in the book like killing dogs, killing pregnant chicks, killing a character's family members. Pretty sure he thinks that sad-porn is good writing on it's own when you actually need to build things up and execute it correctly. I think he did this pretty well for Abby's dad but all other cases don't hold much water and just come off as Steven Universe tier " You better cry, faggot"

 

[blablabla]

You cant spell Ignorant without IGN

View attachment 1419457

He forgot to mention that the sales went downhill after the first week, Sony consider 10 million units a success, at best like someone said here will get 6 or 8 millions, would not be surprised if it get ported to PC just to squeeze a few shekels more

For perspective the worst thing that ubisoft hsa made in years, AC Unity sold 10 millions and is still a hot garbage

Edit: ayyyyy

View attachment 1419468

i love to defend the finances of a multi billion company to own the chuds, what a fucking moron

 

[Hangula Hungui]

Pretty sure I'm almost done the game and to be honest, I'd rate it like a 5.5 so far. The story is meh but it has it's moments like the flashbacks with Joel, I'm playing on hard so some things take a couple tries and I'm actually being challenged which is important to me in a game. The memes and fan backlash are still funny but I can't legit call it a bad game at this point. It passes as slightly above average for me, it's no Dead Space or Resident Evil but it's passable and fun at times.

please post a screenshot once you‘ve finished it, as of now only 30% of all TLOU2 players actually finished the game.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Ok, so let's look at the whole games price thing.

Games have not been subject to inflation. Still being $60 a pop some 10 years on.

Of the $60, Sony gets $27 on physical sales, and rises to the full $60 on digital sales. (Hence all the consoles and publishers trying, and failing, to make their own platforms a few years ago).

You also get 14 days to refund the game if you nab it digitally, so people might even be mainlining this one and then getting their dosh back.

 

[Neurotic Loser]

View attachment 1419474
please post a screenshot once you‘ve finished it, as of now only 30% of all TLOU2 players actually finished the game.

That's actually slightly below standard. 31% of people who played uncharted 3 completed it (this including easiest difficulty), 38% completed the ps vita uncharted. 38% of people finished Yakuza 5 (a game which can take from 15-80 hours to complete). So it is doing alright so far.

 

[Hangula Hungui]

That's actually slightly below standard. 31% of people who played uncharted 3 completed it (this including easiest difficulty), 38% completed the ps vita uncharted. 38% of people finished Yakuza 5 (a game which can take from 15-80 hours to complete). So it is doing alright so far.

Only 31% finished Uncharted 3? Jesus Christ, what is wrong with people, the game basically plays itself on the easiest difficulty setting.

 

[Prester John]

Ok, so let's look at the whole games price thing.

Games have not been subject to inflation. Still being $60 a pop some 10 years on.

Of the $60, Sony gets $27 on physical sales, and rises to the full $60 on digital sales. (Hence all the consoles and publishers trying, and failing, to make their own platforms a few years ago).

You also get 14 days to refund the game if you nab it digitally, so people might even be mainlining this one and then getting their dosh back.

How does Sony get the full $60 on digital sales? How would any "digital-only" release ever make any money at all for the developer? That doesn't make sense.

What am I missing?

 

[Marco Fucko]

 

[Personal Jesus]

Only 31% finished Uncharted 3? Jesus Christ, what is wrong with people, the game basically plays itself on the easiest difficulty setting.

Telltale Games are probably the easiest games one can play and platinum, however, according to playstation trophies, only 27.2% finished TWD Season 1 and only 24.8% finished Season 2. Some people just buy games for the sake of buying.

 

[Aurora]

How does Sony get the full $60 on digital sales? How would any "digital-only" release ever make any money at all for the developer? That doesn't make sense.

What am I missing?

You have to pay for shipping, manufaturing, and encoding on disks. Digital is instant, easier to safeguard, and is the same price for the consumer as a physical copy.

 

[Hangula Hungui]

Telltale Games are probably the easiest games one can play and platinum, however, according to playstation trophies, only 27.2% finished TWD Season 1 and only 24.8% finished Season 2. Some people just buy games for the sake of buying.

...maybe we deserve the Fifa and Fortnite crowd afterall

 

[Prester John]

You have to pay for shipping, manufaturing, and encoding on disks. Digital is instant, easier to safeguard, and is the same price for the consumer as a physical copy.

Yes, but if the developer gets a 0% cut of the sales, how do they make any money? Especially for digital-only releases that don't have a physical release. I don't understand how that business model would work. There must be more to it.

 

[Aurora]

Yes, but if the developer gets a 0% cut of the sales, how do they make any money? Especially for digital-only releases that don't have a physical release. I don't see how that business model would work.

"Currently, Naughty Dog is developing The Last of Us Part II, the much-anticipated sequel to 2013's The Last of Us. Naughty Dog is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sony Interactive Entertainment located in Santa Monica, California.
Parent: SIE Worldwide Studios, Sony Interactive ..."

Naughty Dog

www.naughtydog.com

 

[Hangula Hungui]

Yes, but if the developer gets a 0% cut of the sales, how do they make any money? Especially for digital-only releases that don't have a physical release. I don't understand how that business model would work. There must be more to it.

It’s only relevant for the publisher, since they avoid the middle man. The devs might get the same cut as for physical copies, but the publisher (and in most cases money-giver to those devs) earns more.

 

[Lurk Jurk]

AAA gaming has the same problem Hollywood does: they spend money to excess in developing and marketing their products and this is why both industries are starting to collapse under their own weight.

It's estimated TLOU2 cost $100 million to make. Given the time it took and Dreckmann having to ship in film VFX animators because people didn't want to work with his sour ass I believe it. So say they spent another, lets be generous and say $20 million on advertising. So they're probably barely scraping a profit and are bragging about it. Tomb Raider sold half a mil less and was considered a flop by Squeenix because of how much it cost to make.