Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[StarkRavingMad]

I'm really bewildered on how people have trouble breathing in masks. Then I remember that some people don't know how to breathe normally. Suck in air through your nose. Mouth breathing is the weak kind of breathing. It doesn't make the full use of the diaphragm.

Yes, this is true.

How do you explain the people who have a hard time breathing when there's pulmonary and respiratory issues, though? A person with COPD or asthma is going to have an absolute bitch of a time breathing in those masks.

 

[Ghost In The Rain]

Flattening the Curve for COVID-19: What Does It Mean and How Can You Help?

History shows that taking strong steps now to slow the spread of coronavirus will help communities and individuals.

healthblog.uofmhealth.org

Catching the coof later on when we have more resources available and a better understanding of how to treat the fucking thing sounds like a way better jam than dying on a ventilator when we have no idea what we're fucking doing. You do understand what the "novel" part in the name means, right?

Good job at actually proposing a purpose, I honestly didn't expect such a rational response from someone like you. As I said in an earlier post that you literally quoted, resources are fully available and have been for months, hospital capacity is not even remotely a concern and barely was at the disease's height, and our understanding has been plateaued for some time too. The gathering of resources and data was indeed a useful goal during march and april, when we had little of neither; however, the benefits to be found now are minuscule.

Indeed, from your phrasing you seem to be under the impressing that it is still early March. It isn't, it is now in fact mid July and in the previous 3 and a half months we have come up with dozens upon dozens of treatments as well as the data to suggest that the people dying on ventilators were an extreme minority and most likely on the cusp of death from their numerous health problems regardless.

There is the possibility of treatments improving in the coming months; however, the improvements offered by a treatment discovered tomorrow is only the margin it provides over the treatment we discovered yesterday. Given all the data suggesting how safe the disease is anyways, and the quality of treatment already archived, I personally find it very hard to believe that any benefits provided outweigh the material cost of the masks.

The only points that exist to be scored are those who:
1) Have not already had the disease (This weeds out a rather large group of people)
2) Would in fact have a negative outcome (And here we weed out the vast majority of people)
3) Would not have that negative outcome mitigated by one of the treatments discovered before they would get it with mask wearing (And this now weeds out a sizable chunk of those left because we do in fact have some treatments)
4) Would be saved by a treatment discovered between when they would get it with mask-wearing and when they would get it without mask-wearing. (A timeframe that I propose would in no case ever exceed the length of total mask-wearing time, and likely be a rather small percentage of it. I'd ballpark it at 1/3, so 3 months of mask wearing to buy on average to buy 1 month of R&D)
5) Would not die anyways of other causes between now and when the required treatment is developed. (relevant because multiple contributing factors old people have a tendancy to randomly die.)

So what are we down to at this point, something like 0.005% or so? Maybe 0.01% if you're optimistic about treatments that take a total of 4 to 5 months to develop?

 

[More AWS-8Q Than You]

I actually agree with you on the vaccine point, I don't think masking nor lockdowns should be mandatory until a vaccine because that will likely take years. That's not feasible at all, and I don't really see anyone pushing for that.

However, the numbers go against your claim that everything was on the decline when masking became a "thing". Personally, the only time I was "required" to wear a mask prior to late May/early June was in healthcare settings, which even you would probably agree is kind of reasonable? I didn't see a "masks required" sign in front of a store until shit popped off after the rioting.

It's a clear decline from peak until the middle of June, which was testing starting really ramping up. Also that's just cases, the important numbers are Hospitalizations and Deaths.

Ohio has almost double it's amount of testing since mid June, cases have doubled, which we're told as nothing to do with increased testing, while the positivity rate has remained roughly the same. If the rate stays at 6% you'll get 60 positives for a thousand tests. If you do two thousand tests, you'll get 120 positives. But none of that increase in cases has materialized as a comparable increase in deaths or hospitalizations, outside of a few hot spots.

There have been some stores that required masks from early on, but many did not. Our governor wanted a mask mandate when we "opened" in May, but quickly dropped it. Technically almost all work places in Ohio require workers to wear masks and have since May. Pointless, as those of us who were essential worked from the initial shutdown in March for other six weeks without masks and there weren't sick people every where. 70% of Ohio's deaths were in long term care facilities, another roughly 10% in prisons. The problem in the US has never been people living their daily lives, it's because the people in charge let the most vulnerable to the 'Rona go mostly unprotected.

 

[Hollywood Hulk Hogan]

Ohio has almost double it's amount of testing since mid June, cases have doubled, which we're told as nothing to do with increased testing, while the positivity rate has remained roughly the same. If the rate stays at 6% you'll get 60 positives for a thousand tests. If you do two thousand tests, you'll get 120 positives. But none of that increase in cases has materialized as a comparable increase in deaths or hospitalizations, outside of a few hot spots.

It really doesn't work like that... Testing has gone up because the need has needed to, too. I know you hate wearing masks, we all do, but to save lives and end this stupid pandemic it's worth it. Grow up and put a damn mask on.

 

[Stoneheart]

They also have a higher Population Density than their neighbors.

its low in sweden and the countries in the north east of sweden... denmark has a much higher density and way lower infection rates. and if thats not enough, just across the baltic is germany with much lower rates for both(and 10 times the population density).

 

[The golden neckbeard]

We will never have a vaccine for a coronavirus that doesnt require a booster shot every 2 monthswhich is not tolerable to the population. End of story. We already know this from SARS 1.
We couldnt even keep up with mutations.


Any talk of vaccines is stupid and probably more to save stock portfolios. Time will prove me right.

Look at Moderna already breaking the news that its not as good as the press release. Insiders just used it as an excuse to unload stock

 

[Houraisan Kaguya]

hospital capacity is not even remotely a concern and barely was at the disease's height, and our understanding has been plateaued for some time too. The gathering of resources and data was indeed a useful goal during march and april, when we had little of neither; however, the benefits to be found now are minuscule.

Fair point about a stagnation in research, I'm not up to date with the rate of advancements in treatment so that could very well be the case. However, I'm inclined to disagree with your point about resources. It seems to me a common fallacy that people like to cry "see, it wasn't a big deal after all!" when the measures actually work.

Indeed, from your phrasing you seem to be under the impressing that it is still early March. It isn't,

In early March my state had a handful of cases, now we have about 70,000 confirmed. I'm actually more concerned now than I was then.

The only points that exist to be scored are those who:
1) Have not already had the disease (This weeds out a rather large group of people)
2) Would in fact have a negative outcome (And here we weed out the vast majority of people)
3) Would not have that negative outcome mitigated by one of the treatments discovered before they would get it with mask wearing (And this now weeds out a sizable chunk of those left because we do in fact have some treatments)
4) Would be saved by a treatment discovered between when they would get it with mask-wearing and when they would get it without mask-wearing. (A timeframe that I propose would in no case ever exceed the length of total mask-wearing time, and likely be a rather small percentage of it. I'd ballpark it at 1/3, so 3 months of mask wearing to buy on average to buy 1 month of R&D)
5) Would not die anyways of other causes between now and when the required treatment is developed. (relevant because multiple contributing factors old people have a tendancy to randomly die.)
So what are we down to at this point, something like 0.005% or so? Maybe 0.01% if you're optimistic about treatments that take a total of 4 to 5 months to develop?

If it means simply wearing a mask in crowded public spaces, something I did without hesitation when I visited Japan a few years ago, then sure, I'm happy to do my part for such "miniscule" gains.

 

[More AWS-8Q Than You]

It really doesn't work like that... Testing has gone up because the need has needed to, too. I know you hate wearing masks, we all do, but to save lives and end this stupid pandemic it's worth it. Grow up and put a damn mask on.

What, exactly, need is there for more testing in the state of Ohio?

 

[Standardized Profile]

Red counties mean masks, the * next to Athens county means they're almost Level 4, which I guess is the shut it all down level. Their sin?
Since last week, they've add 63 cases, one hospitalization. I mean, that is roughly a quarter of their total cases, but the actual important metrics? Ten hospitalizations total, one death back in March.

It sounds like the thing to do is not test anyone until they are actually hospitalized. Then your metrics are 1 new case, 1 hospitalization.

As for masks, they're useful in certain situations: face-to-face encounters that last several minutes or more, coughing, and medical procedures that create lots of aerosolized saliva. In brief public encounters, they're pretty much useless. So their effectiveness depends greatly on your lifestyle and environment. I suspect the mask-religion is another example of urbanites imposing their mores on the rest of the country. (This article calls them talismans.)

Provisional excess deaths in the US have inched up from 5% to 7%. There are still states at or below the expected death baseline, assuming the data is complete.

 

[More AWS-8Q Than You]

It sounds like the thing to do is not test anyone until they are actually hospitalized. Then your metrics are 1 new case, 1 hospitalization.

As for masks, they're useful in certain situations: face-to-face encounters that last several minutes or more, coughing, and medical procedures that create lots of aerosolized saliva. In brief public encounters, they're pretty much useless. So their effectiveness depends greatly on your lifestyle and environment. I suspect the mask-religion is another example of urbanites imposing their mores on the rest of the country. (This article calls them talismans.)

Provisional excess deaths in the US have inched up from 5% to 7%. There are still states at or below the expected death baseline, assuming the data is complete.

Certainly, I had no problem wearing a mask to get my hair cut, for example, even if I'd rather not. Sustained, close contact and if they do anything at all, that's where they'll be helpful. Visiting a grocery store? I mean, there have been all those massive outbreaks from those. Masks on everyone is the new Tests for everyone, where people were acting like tests were like unto vaccines.

 

[eternal dog mongler]

Yes, this is true.

How do you explain the people who have a hard time breathing when there's pulmonary and respiratory issues, though? A person with COPD or asthma is going to have an absolute bitch of a time breathing in those masks.

We had a nurse pass out from hypercapnia wearing the COVID-19 special (surgical mask + N95 + face shield.)

If you pass out just wearing a cloth mask then that's on you.

 

[Hollywood Hulk Hogan]

What, exactly, need is there for more testing in the state of Ohio?

More people with symptoms?

 

[More AWS-8Q Than You]

More people with symptoms?

Is that what you're going with? Thought you knew.

 

[StarkRavingMad]

In my state, they are literally encouraging everyone to get tested. "No doctor's referral needed, no symptoms needed to qualify!"

 

[HTTP Error 404]

In my state, they are literally encouraging everyone to get tested. "No doctor's referral needed, no symptoms needed to qualify!"

And if you get tested, expect to be forced to take 2 weeks off work while they wait for the results to come in.

 

[StarkRavingMad]

And if you get tested, expect to be forced to take 2 weeks off work while they wait for the results to come in.

And if you get tested positive for antibodies, then you are counted as a "Current COVID Case." Been widely reported in several states.

What a farce a lot of this is. Not denying the virus exists of course, but do I think a lot of the hysteria is manufactured and calculated? YUP.

 

[No Ma'ams Land]

Are antibody tests still abysmally inaccurate? I have family in med tech, they've been guinea pigs weekly for these things, and they've seen / heard something like a 50% false negative rate.

 

[More AWS-8Q Than You]

In my state, they are literally encouraging everyone to get tested. "No doctor's referral needed, no symptoms needed to qualify!"

This is exactly where we're at in Ohio. There's also been multiple reports of people signing up to be testing, it taking so long that they leave before getting tested but still getting notifications that they tested positive. Also the free testing as almost all been in and around Cincinnati for the last few weeks. DeWine is really trying to get our numbers up for some reason.

 

[The golden neckbeard]

I

Are antibody tests still abysmally inaccurate? I have family in med tech, they've been guinea pigs weekly for these things, and they've seen / heard something like a 50% false negative rate.

Yes. Since they flag the common colds what is the point?

Your going to have anti-bodies if you had a cold in the last 6 months . They are sending away tona of idiots who now think they are immune to covid but actually just had a false positive.

 

[Cast Iron Pan]

https://archive.is/cw96a

5 reasons why summer parties are spiking coronavirus numbers when protests didn’t

Julie Mack, MLive journalist

“I would say that, for the most part, the vast majority of people who attended wore masks,” Conrad said about the marches in Berrien County. “The organizers of the event were very clear about looking for people to wear masks and for them to spread out enough so there was six feet of distance between folks. We in the health department worked with some of the event organizers to ensure health and safety for those participating, and I do think people heeded our advice.”

They say this, but right on the front page of the site, directly below the article is this one:

https://archive.is/GUPdU

Mother asks for justice after shooting death of teen daughter

Not a single person in the photos is wearing a mask or social distancing.


Protesters, counter-protesters descend on Pronto Pup after owner’s rant against Black Live Matters, masks

https://archive.is/qDGrH