Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[Standardized Profile]

I think the big concern about taking a complete herd immunity approach is the virus mutating

Nature selects mutations for fitness. A better-fitted virus would be more virulent, less deadly. But herd immunity doesn't give the virus any opportunity to reproduce, so mutations will be brought to a stop.

- we're still adding new symptoms to the list, and there's no guarantee that a vaccine will do any good if the virus adapts to it.

Such a guarantee is impossible for any virus, but vaccine research targets the spike protein, and if the spike protein mutates, the virus can't enter cells anyway. It would have to undergo some very specific adaptations to make the spike invisible to the immune system while maintaining its function. I might start listening to Michael Behe if that happened.

Study of antibody response to SARS-CoV-2

Summary of article about identification of specific areas on spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 that appear to trigger strong protective antibody responses in rabbits

www.fda.gov

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2022483?query=featured_home

If the rumors about Brazil's native bat population inducing more frequent mutation are true then it's not so much what the virus is capable of, moreso what it could be capable of. I'm no expert on how viruses mutate so I have no idea how likely a nightmare scenario is, but there are arguments to be made(and being made) for continuing a cautious approach for months, if not years.

The same argument has been made about influenza, filoviruses, etc. Anything could mutate into anything else. The Shredder could pour mutagen onto ebolavirus and cross it with a rhinoceros. If we spent years being cautious about every possible mutation, we would've shut everything down 100 years ago and never reemerged from our Spanish Flu shelters.

 

[DNA_JACKED]

I think the big concern about taking a complete herd immunity approach is the virus mutating - we're still adding new symptoms to the list, and there's no guarantee that a vaccine will do any good if the virus adapts to it. If the rumors about Brazil's native bat population inducing more frequent mutation are true then it's not so much what the virus is capable of, moreso what it could be capable of. I'm no expert on how viruses mutate so I have no idea how likely a nightmare scenario is, but there are arguments to be made(and being made) for continuing a cautious approach for months, if not years.

You can build herd immunity without a vaccine. You let all the healthy people intermingle for a few months, and herd immunity will develop on its own. Herd immunity begins to have an effect as low as 65%, and depending on diseases 70-85% creates near total immunity, as viral loads of infected people are just too low to spread without enough targets. Corona is extremely infectious, and thus would likely need 90+% to totally stop, but moderate spread reduction is absolutely possible without a vaccine.

As herd immunity develops, this will influence a virus. If some form of immunity is present, then more aggressive viruses will get picked off by immune systems early, before they can cause much damage, as they have some form of memory on how to combat coronaviruses. Strains that are more infectious but milder, thus being able to hide from the immune system long enough to start spreading, are able to survive.

Mutations from the same family introduced to a population with pre exiting immunity to previous strains will have much less success. Look no further then H1N1, when it first spread to humans via spanish flu it killed 700,000 people in america alone in 1918. Future waves were far less deadly (the 1918 wave was the "ZOMG DEAD" wave). In 1918 H1N1 was a novel disease to humanity. When the disease jumped to humans again in 2006, and struck a second time in 2009, the disease killed, what, 10-20K people combined? And this time around the US had 3x the population of 1918 america. There was latent memory in immune systems of humans left over from the spanish flu, so even though it had been nearly a century H1N1 was not a novel disease, and human immune systems were able to adapt fairly quickly. This year H1N1 specifically has only killed 5000 in the US.

With death and hospitalization rates continuing to trend downward, its pretty obvious these spikes in cases are the huge miasma of mild cases that were totally ignored in February, march, and April. Since mid June testing has dramatically increased, to say nothing of early may to now. We've seen states target areas with testing to bolster numbers and scare people. It's working, for now, but in 2 weeks when people still are not dropping in the streets the general population will once again tire of the virus mongering.

 

[gangweedfan]

Initial reports of reinfection came from lingering virus particles, not active infections
(archive)
As of May, no true case of reinfection in humans had been confirmed *
To the best of my knowledge, no accepted case has been confirmed since, but May was the most recent peer-reviewed date
(archive)
Even if there are true cases of reinfection out there, statistically speaking they will drop to zero as more people catch the virus and recover *
(archive)

Additionally the fact we have MILLIONS of cases worldwide yet a handful of "maybe it was a reinfection, cant tell for sure", should tell you everything about the likelihood of reinfection even if it is possible.

Thanks! but what about long term effects?

 

[DNA_JACKED]

Thanks! but what about long term effects?

99.9% of people who have mild cases or asymptomatic will be fine. If you develop severe symptoms then you'd likely end up with lung or heart damage, but that is true of ANY cold or flu that requires hospitalization. nearly 50% of hospitalizations related to the flu end up as deaths, and pneumonia creates some permanent damage no matter what the cause.

By comparison, IIRC only 5-7% of hospitalizations for corona result in death. The majority need oxygen for their stay, and in florida the average time had shrunk from 10.5 to just 6 days by the end of june, and the number has continued to trend downward. This is why the overwhelming of the hospital system is far more dangerous then the disease itself, and why we originally needed to "flatten the curve".

 

[FatalTater]

Americans are getting uppity and thinking kids don't get Corona Chan! Quick, publish a scary story!

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/85-infants-have-tested-positive-coronavirus-1-texas-county-u-n1234293

http://archive.vn/ooLPu

 

[Peace and Harmony]

Americans are getting uppity and thinking kids don't get Corona Chan! Quick, publish a scary story!

Guaranteed shares from the nation's top thinkers and commentators.

 

[Return of the Freaker]

Here's an open ended question: Why does everyone (or rather, mostly Coronavirans) treat Dr. Fauci like some kind of superstar savior of mankind? Or like he's the Pontifex Maximus of HolyVirus?

God we had that in Ohio when Dr. Amy Acton was still around. Then she fucked off to do a special on CNN with the Sesame Street muppets about COVID.

And then CNN did a #ICan'tBreathe Sesame Street special. Don't recall who the special guests for that one were.

 

[The golden neckbeard]

99.9% of people who have mild cases or asymptomatic will be fine. If you develop severe symptoms then you'd likely end up with lung or heart damage, but that is true of ANY cold or flu that requires hospitalization. nearly 50% of hospitalizations related to the flu end up as deaths, and pneumonia creates some permanent damage no matter what the cause.

By comparison, IIRC only 5-7% of hospitalizations for corona result in death. The majority need oxygen for their stay, and in florida the average time had shrunk from 10.5 to just 6 days by the end of june, and the number has continued to trend downward. This is why the overwhelming of the hospital system is far more dangerous then the disease itself, and why we originally needed to "flatten the curve".

No..99.9% wont be fine

The long term effects are known. Thats why China doesnt let this get out of hand...for some reason we refuse to read betwen the lines.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/abc11.com/amp/covid-19-cumberland-county-immunity-herd/6322006/

X-rays have revealed the virus can cause lung damage even in people without severe symptoms, she said.
“They are seeing there is damage to the lungs in these asymptomatic children. ... We don’t know how that is going to manifest a year from now or two years from now,” Alonso said. “Is that child going to have chronic pulmonary problems or not?"

Well..anybody following this story since december it was common knowledge at the time...then was heavily censored and is starting to drip out slowly now in bits and bites. But we knew all this

Its pumonary fibrosis...the damage isnt fixable and has a poor prognosis in most. Im not saying a child with Covid is going to need a lung transplant a year from now but developing Lung Cancer at age 12 is a very real possibility. Even if they had zero symptoms

Stop being a faggot and wear a mask

 

[More AWS-8Q Than You]

God we had that in Ohio when Dr. Amy Acton was still around. Then she fucked off to do a special on CNN with the Sesame Street muppets about COVID.

And then CNN did a #ICan'tBreathe Sesame Street special. Don't recall who the special guests for that one were.

Sad part is that she's still around, just DeWine's health advisor now. Got a $50,000 a year raise to. People still want her back running things. She didn't even know viruses don't reproduce externally to the body on top of all her predictions being wrong.

 

[DNA_JACKED]

No..99.9% wont be fine

The long term effects are known. Thats why China doesnt let this get out of hand...for some reason we refuse to read betwen the lines.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/abc11.com/amp/covid-19-cumberland-county-immunity-herd/6322006/

X-rays have revealed the virus can cause lung damage even in people without severe symptoms, she said.
“They are seeing there is damage to the lungs in these asymptomatic children. ... We don’t know how that is going to manifest a year from now or two years from now,” Alonso said. “Is that child going to have chronic pulmonary problems or not?"

Well..anybody following this story since december it was common knowledge at the time...then was heavily censored and is starting to drip out slowly now in bits and bites. But we knew all this

Its pumonary fibrosis...the damage isnt fixable and has a poor prognosis in most. Im not saying a child with Covid is going to need a lung transplant a year from now but developing Lung Cancer at age 12 is a very real possibility. Even if they had zero symptoms

Stop being a faggot and wear a mask

Hey, autistic dipshit, the article you linked doesnt contain the text you wrote. Way to own goal yourself. The article you linked talks about the long term ramifications for those with SEVERE symptoms. Jesus christ you cant even make your point without fucking up. Nowhere in the article does it say : " “They are seeing there is damage to the lungs in these asymptomatic children ". X-rays are also not mentioned.

FAYETTEVILLE, N.C. (WTVD) -- As COVID-19 cases continue to climb, health experts are starting to better understand its devastating and long-lasting effects.

According to hospital staffers, Cape Fear Valley Health Hospital has seen an uptick in COVID-19 patient intake by 50 percent. If patients with severe symptoms require a ventilator, health officials have said there is a moderate chance of survival. If they survive, some of the effects could last a lifetime.


Dr. Michael Zappa is Chief of Emergency Services at Cape Fear Valley Health Hospital and has been on the frontline of this pandemic since its start. Within the hospital's walls, he's seen death and remarkable recovery stories. He said the virus attacks almost every major organ in the body and causes severe vessel damage during infection and long after.

How 2 former Fayetteville COVID-19 patients are doing months after being hospitalized

"Those who were very sick and often in ICU for weeks could wind up with problems with their kidneys that could lead to dialysis, chronic cardiac problems or chronic problems with their brain," Zappa said.

'You feel like you're underwater:' Fayetteville man recovering from COVID-19 at home after receiving remdesivir treatment

The emergency medicine physician said other mild symptoms could include fatigue, cough and easy exhaustion with mild exertion. Many question if COVID-19 survivors can get re-infected with the virus.

Zappa has seen it with his own eyes.

"Right now to say 'I've had COVID-19 and now I don't have to worry because I've recovered,' we don't see evidence that having it once grants you immunity," Zappa said.


What does COVID-19 do to your body and why does it spread so easily?

The coronavirus is spreading, what does COVID-19 do to your body?


The number of COVID-19 cases across North Carolina total more than 95,000 and more than 1,600 people have died from the virus. In Cumberland County, the case count has reached 1,849 with 47 deaths.

As researchers continue to uncover key details of the short and long term effects of the coronavirus, Dr. Zappa said practicing constant handwashing, wearing a mask and respecting the 6-foot rule will help you and your loved ones get through this pandemic safely.

"I can't tell you for how long you have to make this adjustment. What I can tell you is it's more than a few weeks and it's probably more than a few months," Zappa said.

Go lick some doorknobs with Drain Todger.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

I think the big concern about taking a complete herd immunity approach is the virus mutating - we're still adding new symptoms to the list, and there's no guarantee that a vaccine will do any good if the virus adapts to it. If the rumors about Brazil's native bat population inducing more frequent mutation are true then it's not so much what the virus is capable of, moreso what it could be capable of. I'm no expert on how viruses mutate so I have no idea how likely a nightmare scenario is, but there are arguments to be made(and being made) for continuing a cautious approach for months, if not years.

See here's the thing though:
If herd immunity and a vaccine will do no good, then what's the fucking point of any social counter-measures?
If Mother Nature is just going to win in the end and kill our geriatric boomers and XXL diabeetus blobs, then why are we fighting so fucking hard and risking so much to stop her?

Like I don't necessarily agree, but at least there is an argument to made of "stay lockdown/mask order/50% capacity/etc. until we have a vaccine."
But if a vaccine wont work then why risk the health and futures of those who wont be killed by COVID to save those who we cant save anyways?

 

[The golden neckbeard]

Hey, autistic dipshit, the article you linked doesnt contain the text you wrote. Way to own goal yourself. The article you linked talks about the long term ramifications for those with SEVERE symptoms. Jesus christ you cant even make your point without fucking up. Nowhere in the article does it say : " “They are seeing there is damage to the lungs in these asymptomatic children ". X-rays are also not mentioned.



Go lick some doorknobs with Drain Todger.

Hey you fucking nigger i had the wrong article copied.

Nearly one-third of children tested for COVID in Florida are positive. Palm Beach County’s health director warns of risk of long-term damage

COVID-19 could have long-term health consequences for children, Palm Beach County's health department director is warning.

www.google.com

But go ahead and cut and paste your stupid fucking made up fag JUST A FLU BRO talking points anyway and tell us why doctors and scientists have it all wrong because you read something on breitbart.

Go lick a door knob faggot

 

[DNA_JACKED]

Hey you fucking nigger i had the wrong article copied.

Nearly one-third of children tested for COVID in Florida are positive. Palm Beach County’s health director warns of risk of long-term damage

COVID-19 could have long-term health consequences for children, Palm Beach County's health department director is warning.

www.google.com

But go ahead and cut and paste your stupid fucking made up fag JUST A FLU BRO talking points anyway and tell us why doctors and scientists have it all wrong because you read something on breitbart.

Go lick a door knob faggot

" Dr. Jorge Perez, co-founder of Kidz Medical Services, said it’s too early to say how common and severe long-term damage could be from COVID-19, but early evidence suggests some children infected with the virus could have lasting damage. "

Lots of "could" and "maybes" in there, and a whole lot of nothing in terms of, you know, evidence.

ZOMG A HEALTH DIRECT SAID THERE COULD BE LONG TERM DAMAGE FUCKING PANIC! A health director ALSO didnt know that viruses cant duplicate outside of a host. They are bureaucrats and politicians, advisors. Their word is not infallible, nor is it necessarily true. Fauci is a "health director" too, and I'd bet you dont believe a word he says.

" X-rays have revealed the virus can cause lung damage even in people without severe symptoms, she said. "

CAN cause, not DOES cause. Let me break that language down for you: a number of patients could suffer lung damage. We wont tell you how many we've found, what percentage are affected, but you should believe us anyway because FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR.

ONE of the 287K cases could have lung damage despite no symptoms and they would be "technically" correct. China found evidence that heart damage can occur in young patients, based on THREE people. Numbers matter for proving your point.

By the way you fucking faggot, this is why anecdotes are not evidence. This whole article is anecdotes, no hard numbers on the number of these "hidden" incidences of lung damage. This is as useful as an article quoting trump saying "we are doing great, numbers are down, fantastic results" being used as evidence that the pandemic is over.

 

[The golden neckbeard]

" Dr. Jorge Perez, co-founder of Kidz Medical Services, said it’s too early to say how common and severe long-term damage could be from COVID-19, but early evidence suggests some children infected with the virus could have lasting damage. "

Lots of "could" and "maybes" in there, and a whole lot of nothing in terms of, you know, evidence.

ZOMG A HEALTH DIRECT SAID THERE COULD BE LONG TERM DAMAGE FUCKING PANIC! A health director ALSO didnt know that viruses cant duplicate outside of a host. They are bureaucrats and politicians, advisors. Their word is not infallible, nor is it necessarily true. Fauci is a "health director" too, and I'd bet you dont believe a word he says.

" X-rays have revealed the virus can cause lung damage even in people without severe symptoms, she said. "

CAN cause, not DOES cause. Let me break that language down for you: a number of patients could suffer lung damage. We wont tell you how many we've found, what percentage are affected, but you should believe us anyway because FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR.

ONE of the 287K cases could have lung damage despite no symptoms and they would be "technically" correct. China found evidence that heart damage can occur in young patients, based on THREE people. Numbers matter for proving your point.

By the way you fucking faggot, this is why anecdotes are not evidence. This whole article is anecdotes, no hard numbers on the number of these "hidden" incidences of lung damage. This is as useful as an article quoting trump saying "we are doing great, numbers are down, fantastic results" being used as evidence that the pandemic is over.

You are acting like thats the only fucking evidence. There are so many articles about lung scarring and coronary calcification in even asymptomatic people. Its all over the fucking internet. Oh and because its a Coronavirus like the common cold the antibodies dont last. So guess what? You will get infected again and again and more damaged.

Now you see why the rest of the world is welding people in houses and yet we cant agree on fucking masks

You falsely said 99.9% of people will be fine when the evidence is fucking pointing to a major fucking catastrophe taking shape right now

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

...and tell us why doctors and scientists have it all wrong because you read something on breitbart.

Says one of the guys who avoid posts citing peer-reviewed journals and instead post MSM articles and government talking points

 

[DrearyDoomguy]

Like I don't necessarily agree, but at least there is an argument to made of "stay lockdown/mask order/50% capacity/etc. until we have a vaccine."
But if a vaccine wont work then why risk the health and futures of those who wont be killed by COVID to save those who we cant save anyways?

Most countries seem to have taken the approach of "let's shut down everything and starve the virus of warm bodies by quite literally forcing everyone to stay in place." It seems to have worked reasonably well, at least until or unless the virus gets reintroduced via travel. Who knows what they do then. Maybe the short term success of lockdowns is simply be a postponement of the inevitable; I do, however, think that quite a few countries are scared stiff of the logistical side of dealing with outbreaks. The current outbreak states are unquestionably seeing a palpable strain on their health care infrastructure, albeit not to such an extent that they're reaching capacity. Hell, they could just be scared of getting bad press. There's no shortage of outrage being directed at the governors who refuse to lockdown their states.

I certainly don't discount the idea that the red state herd immunity strategy may be the best approach we can take, but with everything that's happened this year it's hard to maintain an optimistic outlook on anything. I would be lying if I pretended that the incessant barrage of doom porn, coupled with the isolation of lockdowns, hasn't taken its psychological toll on me. I just don't know what to believe anymore. More than anything else, this virus feels terrifying when it's actually at your front door, and the fact that all this is going down during an election year does not help matters. Every dead body is going to be weaponized by political interest groups long after the virus burns itself out, if that does indeed happen(and I really hope it does).

 

[Mrs. Addams]

Facts:
- Covid = bad
- Older folks are significantly more likely to die of Covid than kids but nobody is completely safe
- Nobody trusts the current government leadership to be looking out for our best interests
- The current situation is very bad for the economy
- People turn on each other incredibly quickly when they are stressed and feel threatened
- The media is train-wrecking, fear-mongering, yellow journalistic liars and should be shot
- Tests are hard to come by and unreliable
- The current US lockdown is not starving transmission to the point where it stops

Not Facts:
- Mask efficacy (might be good in certain scenarios... but definately not the salvation it's being toted as)
- Long term illness (we haven't even had a "long term" yet to study this)
- Vaccines are safe or work or are even achievable
- We're in a first/second/third wave and due for another one
- You can get Covid from hugging/breathing/swimming/sexting/schools/letting your mail sit for two days
- Asymptomatic people/children/protestors cannot spread the virus
- What it would take to acquire herd immunity
- Long-term immunity from having had Covid (but it seems likely since we're hearing so few exceptions)

Anything else I missed?

 

[Niggaplease]

See here's the thing though:
If herd immunity and a vaccine will do no good, then what's the fucking point of any social counter-measures?
If Mother Nature is just going to win in the end and kill our geriatric boomers and XXL diabeetus blobs, then why are we fighting so fucking hard and risking so much to stop her?

Like I don't necessarily agree, but at least there is an argument to made of "stay lockdown/mask order/50% capacity/etc. until we have a vaccine."
But if a vaccine wont work then why risk the health and futures of those who wont be killed by COVID to save those who we cant save anyways?

because nobody likes the idea of throwing grandma or someone terminally with cancer under the bus. I highly doubt herd immunity will be a thing until a vaccine can be made.

 

[JosephStalin]

Facts:
- Covid = bad
- Older folks are significantly more likely to die of Covid than kids but nobody is completely safe
- Nobody trusts the current government leadership to be looking out for our best interests
- The current situation is very bad for the economy
- People turn on each other incredibly quickly when they are stressed and feel threatened
- The media is train-wrecking, fear-mongering, yellow journalistic liars and should be shot
- Tests are hard to come by and unreliable
- The current US lockdown is not starving transmission to the point where it stops

Not Facts:
- Mask efficacy (might be good in certain scenarios... but definately not the salvation it's being toted as)
- Long term illness (we haven't even had a "long term" yet to study this)
- Vaccines are safe or work or are even achievable
- We're in a first/second/third wave and due for another one
- You can get Covid from hugging/breathing/swimming/sexting/schools/letting your mail sit for two days
- Asymptomatic people/children/protestors cannot spread the virus
- What it would take to acquire herd immunity

Anything else I missed?

Yup.

Facts:
CDC says minimum of 39,000,000 cases of the "regular" flu between 1 Oct 19 and 4 April 20. (Six months)
Minimum of 18,000,000 medical visits.
Minimum of 410,000 hospitalized.
Minimum of 24,000 deaths.

Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates

CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates | CDC

archived 3 May 2020 10:05:12 UTC

archive.vn

But the media doesn't want us to know that. Face it, entire states weren't placed under house arrest, our economy wasn't damaged, education from pre-school to med school wasn't disrupted, and nobody was forced to wear a mask or do "distancing" for the "regular" flu. The "regular" flu seems to be much more of a problem than the ChiCom Flu.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

You are acting like thats the only fucking evidence. There are so many articles about lung scarring and coronary calcification in even asymptomatic people. Its all over the fucking internet. Oh and because its a Coronavirus like the common cold the antibodies dont last. So guess what? You will get infected again and again and more damaged.

Cool, so why are we making a vaccine for something we can't fight against? Looks like we'll just have to suck it up and deal with these horrible symptoms which occur in a tiny minority of cases. You know, like every other dangerous disease in history, including other novel coronaviruses since this obviously isn't the first time a coronavirus pandemic happened in history, but it's probably the first time society ever cared so much about a disease that barely kills anyone under 65.

I sure don't see H1N1 aka Spanish flu dropping people like flies like back in 1918 even though you can pretty easily catch H1N1.