2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[FuckedUp]

History only began 40 minutes ago, don't you know?

Actually it started last Thursday, but close enough.

 

[MrJokerRager]

I was a dumbass in 2016 who was upset when Trump won. I awoke from my idiocy a year and a 1/2 into it. I seriously hope these nitwits are just as stunned and devastated as I was the first time around and Trump wins even bigger than before. Polls are notoriously inaccurate. There is a professor at a university in LI who has a prediction model that has been accurate every time he has used it and even for past elections. This is one article I found about it


“Despite recent polls that identify Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in 2020, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning in November.

Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his "Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.

The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."

As Mediaite noted, the two elections the model failed to predict were the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush.


Norpoth's model examines the results of presidential primaries as the strongest indicator as to the outcome in the general election, not the polls that dominate the political discussion. According to Norpoth, Biden is in a much weaker position than Trump because of his poor showing in the first two primary races.

Before making the stunning comeback in the South Carolina primary and carrying the following races, Biden came in fourth place in Iowa with just 15.8 percent of the vote and came in fifth place in New Hampshire with just 8.4 percent. Norpoth stressed that enthusiasm is key.

“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth told Mediaite. “The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases."

Norpoth's model, which correctly predicted Trump's victory roughly nine months before the 2016 election, suggests that the president will win by even a wider margin in the electoral college with 362 electoral votes versus the 304 he earned against Hillary Clinton. Mediaite pointed out such a victory would nearly match Barack Obama's 2008 election, when he earned 365 electoral votes.

The Stony Brook professor appeared on "The Ingraham Angle" back in May making the same prediction.

While the "Primary Model" hands Trump his reelection, national polls suggest Biden will win handily in November. The Real Clear Politics average shows the former VP besting the sitting president by 8.7 points. In the latest Fox News poll, Biden has a 12 point lead over Trump.

The president's polling has taken quite the hit in recent months amid the coronavirus outbreak and increased racial tensions following the death of George Floyd.”

So his model is basically predicting this?

 

[Owen Grady]

I was a dumbass in 2016 who was upset when Trump won. I awoke from my idiocy a year and a 1/2 into it. I seriously hope these nitwits are just as stunned and devastated as I was the first time around and Trump wins even bigger than before. Polls are notoriously inaccurate. There is a professor at a university in LI who has a prediction model that has been accurate every time he has used it and even for past elections. This is one article I found about it


“Despite recent polls that identify Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in 2020, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning in November.

Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his "Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.

The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."

As Mediaite noted, the two elections the model failed to predict were the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush.


Norpoth's model examines the results of presidential primaries as the strongest indicator as to the outcome in the general election, not the polls that dominate the political discussion. According to Norpoth, Biden is in a much weaker position than Trump because of his poor showing in the first two primary races.

Before making the stunning comeback in the South Carolina primary and carrying the following races, Biden came in fourth place in Iowa with just 15.8 percent of the vote and came in fifth place in New Hampshire with just 8.4 percent. Norpoth stressed that enthusiasm is key.

“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth told Mediaite. “The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases."

Norpoth's model, which correctly predicted Trump's victory roughly nine months before the 2016 election, suggests that the president will win by even a wider margin in the electoral college with 362 electoral votes versus the 304 he earned against Hillary Clinton. Mediaite pointed out such a victory would nearly match Barack Obama's 2008 election, when he earned 365 electoral votes.

The Stony Brook professor appeared on "The Ingraham Angle" back in May making the same prediction.

While the "Primary Model" hands Trump his reelection, national polls suggest Biden will win handily in November. The Real Clear Politics average shows the former VP besting the sitting president by 8.7 points. In the latest Fox News poll, Biden has a 12 point lead over Trump.

The president's polling has taken quite the hit in recent months amid the coronavirus outbreak and increased racial tensions following the death of George Floyd.”

I like this prediction, but is this conclusion being reached before or after the votes of dead people, pets, and illegal aliens are taken into account?

 

[tehpope]

That map seems right. But Washington and Oregon are not going red this year. Maybe sometime down the line. Doubtful Colorado goes red too.
This probably more likely:

Also Ye had his first ralley in SC. And said this:

 

[Sopressata]

I like this prediction, but is this conclusion being reached before or after the votes of dead people, pets, and illegal aliens are taken into account?

lol this is an excellent point. These people are the most conniving vindictive SOBs in their relentless hatred. The mail in crap is really making me nervous.

 

[heyitsmike]

lol this is an excellent point. These people are the most conniving vindictive SOBs in their relentless hatred. The mail in crap is really making me nervous.

The only saving grace, if you can call it that, is the places with the worst mail in voting fraud are already out of play for Trump before the day even begins. California can harvest 100 million ballots and Biden will still only get the 55 electoral votes he was going to get anyway.

Thank heavens for the electoral college.

 

[MrJokerRager]

That map seems right. But Washington and Oregon are not going red this year. Maybe sometime down the line. Doubtful Colorado goes red too.
This probably more likely:
View attachment 1459879

Also Ye had his first ralley in SC. And said this:
View attachment 1459881

Kanye West does have a legitimate point about Harriet Tubman but I guess its the thought that counts. I believe his role is to be a vote thief from people who are on the fence leaning towards Democrat but don't like Trump or Biden. He could be the protest vote candidate that hurts Biden more than Trump. Anyone who usually is for Trump is going to vote Trump.

Kanye West could also be like a person who opens up the black community and allow Blacks who didn't think the democrat koolaid to probably speak out about the bullshit in their communities rather than voting lockstep and getting fucked every 4 years.

 

[jje100010001]

On Kamala- is the DNC pushing hard for a glow-up, or is she just trying really hard to lockdown her VP chances?

https://twitter.com/_realjgoodwin/status/1284987091395530759

 

[JambledUpWords]

The saga continues:

 

[Richardface]

As Mediaite noted, the two elections the model failed to predict were the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush.

That's basically a 100% correct rate as the 2000 Bush victory was close enough to be a coinflip and the mafia put their thumb on the scales to get Kennedy across the line

 

[George Floyd Sneed]

I'm declaring a problem in that a lot of the people who ran for the Dems are old fucks and their nominee is a senile old fuck and the president is an old fuck too joking about cognitive ability tests and how Biden can't take one when it really shouldn't be a focus.

Barack Obama was the perfect candidate for the left. The funny thing is that there’s nobody on the left who comes close to checking all the various boxes he does. They got spoiled too early for their first black candidate and are going to really struggle for many of their other “first” candidates.

That's basically a 100% correct rate as the 2000 Bush victory was close enough to be a coinflip and the mafia put their thumb on the scales to get Kennedy across the line

This is why all the people here that are hoping for a 50% + 1 victory for Trump are forgetting: the left will lie, cheat, and steal. You have to account for the Democrat Margin of Fraud (MOF): all the votes that mysteriously appear in lockers, duffel bags, car trunks, and all those districts where the 2018 midterms had over 100% participation that the DNC never had to explain.

 

[Syaoran Li]

Barack Obama was the perfect candidate for the left. The funny thing is that there’s nobody on the left who comes close to checking all the various boxes he does. So they’re just going to keep waxing nostalgic about him until they find another person they like.



This is why all the people here that are hoping for a 50% + 1 victory for Trump are forgetting: the left will lie, cheat, and steal. You have to account for the Democrat Margin of Fraud (MOF): all the votes that mysteriously appear in lockers, duffel bags, car trunks, and all those 2018 midterms that had over 100% participation that the DNC never had to explain.

Honestly, I'm hoping for a narrow Trump victory that is narrow because of the margin of fraud

If it weren't for the Wuhan Flu and the BLM coup in June, I'd say Trump would likely win in a 2008 style blowout even with Democrat meddling because Joe Biden really is that weak of a candidate.

I still think Trump can beat the odds even with Democrat fuckery if things improve in August-September-October or if the DNC goes full retard and picks someone like Kamala Harris or Stacey Abrams as Biden's VP and right now, I'm placing the odds at 50/50 and that's with the vote rigging taken into account.

If Trump can successfully campaign on his return to normalcy platform and debate Biden, he's got the edge. On the one hand, I think the media and the DNC will do everything in their power to prevent a Trump Biden debate but if they do actually cancel a presidential debate, Trump will tweet about it and it will raise a lot of red flags since we've never cancelled those before and it's the kind of aberration that can scare even the most low-information voters.

And if Kanye West really is serious about doing a third party run then I think Biden probably is fucked. I know Kanye is a manic bipolar nutjob who said he was running, and then he said he quit, but less than two days later he says he actually is running and is already on the ballot in at least one state and gave an honest-to-god campaign speech and political rally in South Carolina so who even knows at this point?

 

[eternal dog mongler]

Barack Obama was the perfect candidate for the left. The funny thing is that there’s nobody on the left who comes close to checking all the various boxes he does. They got spoiled too early for their first black candidate and are going to really struggle for many of their other “first” candidates.

Obama was a once-in-a-lifetime candidate.

Now we've got, uh...the Castros? AOC? No thanks.

 

[heyitsmike]

Barack Obama was the perfect candidate for the left. The funny thing is that there’s nobody on the left who comes close to checking all the various boxes he does. They got spoiled too early for their first black candidate and are going to really struggle for many of their other “first” candidates.

Exactly. They should have run Killary in 2008 against a reeling GOP coming off eight years of GWB and saved Obama for 2016. But they didn't think it would matter since they figured their days of losing elections were over.

 

[Marchesa of the Vast]

Obama was a once-in-a-lifetime candidate.

Now we've got, uh...the Castros? AOC? No thanks.

Obama was perfect because he was a construct of the CIA.

 

[It's HK-47]

It should concern Trump that the Democrats are being forced to spend massive amounts of money in states that were considered part of the "Blue Wall" before the last election? They're having to pump an enormous amount of money into states that were previously considered a safe bet, and that should concern Trump?

 

[Marchesa of the Vast]

View attachment 1460563

It should concern Trump that the Democrats are being forced to spend massive amounts of money in states that were considered part of the "Blue Wall" before the last election? They're having to pump an enormous amount of money into states that were previously considered a safe bet, and that should concern Trump?

These people don't understand timing. What good is spamming ads 3 months out? Apparently the Trump spending plan in 2016 that allowed them to spend much less money than Clinton was that most of the cycle they were spending a trickle but in the final few weeks dumped everything and just barraged the public with ads right at the end. Of course, the media who live off these ads hate that. It's just interesting that spending in fucking July is the bellwether when the headline the last year or two has been Republicans out raising the Democrats.

If the dems don't lose I can only think it is due to fuckery in the ballots.

 

[Ruin]

Did Harris have really awful plastic surgery recently? I don't remember her looking like the 90's Joker.

 

[MrJokerRager]

Did Harris have really awful plastic surgery recently? I don't remember her looking like the 90's Joker.

She reminded me of the movie White Chicks.

 

[FunPosting101]

Honestly, I don't think the liberals believe their own polls either, that would be why you had some clown over at 538 trying to argue that Trump was the one with the enthusiasm problem because lots of liberals hate him.