China Floodwatch 2020-21 - Wuhan, Hubei/Henan Province is sinking and I dunno how to swim.

Is the Three Gorges Dam kill?

  • Yes

    Votes: 310 78.7%
  • No

    Votes: 84 21.3%

  • Total voters
    394
  • Poll closed .
They denied the warping before right?
The "warping" people were throwing around before was distortion caused by google maps 3d view. If it had warped as much as those images claimed to show, it would have collapsed years ago.

If the dam has warped IRL, they would still be able to deny the earlier claims because they were bogus. Now they can say "it's warped, but it's not that bad so stop asking" because idiots who can't read google maps sperged all over the internet.
 
I'm aware, just like most skyscrapers are designed to withstand being bent by the wind somewhat. Concrete has pretty good tolerances when you make it right (chinamen have a bad record with this because they want shit built fast and cheap) but what struck me in the video was a mention of the dam leaking. That suggests there is a crack somewhere and thats real bad for structural integrity of the whole thing and that this concrete is not doing so hot right now.


While i would consider the US mainstream media to be a lost cause not even worth getting mad over silence form Japan is kinda strange.

The "leak" thing -the Epoch Times and NTD (not very pro-China Chinese outlets) and Taiwan News seem to be the only ones reporting that. It wasn't exactly what the government said at all.
It was something Wang Weiluo said though - who RFI are passing off as a Chinese Hydrologist - he's Chinese and a hydraulic engineer, sure, but he fled China a long time ago. He's very actively been against the dam since before its construction.
Wang wouldn't discuss the "pictures" from google of the distortion. He didn't refute them when he could have, he just said he wouldn't talk about them.
I hate defending the Chinks coz I fucking hate them, but I dislike muddy, biased sources more than I dislike Chinks.

Having said that, there's video of the overflow going through dam related structures. That's normal. Well, normal within reason.

There's been leaks in the concrete before but they did repair it - that was back in 2003. That was suspected to be due to some natural settling. We have to remember too, it wasn't built by just the chinks. A big chunk of people working on it were foreign. A lot of Europeans went over there to head up the engineering.

Japanese and Korean media are only reporting this recycled stuff above and base news - stuff that is coming from the Chicoms themselves. Typically they'd have more information. More interest. More official interest.
It'd also be more fortuitous for the media to have something to talk about in Japan, at least, because Coronavirus coverage has been poorly received, viewership wise.
 
/pol/ pls

1595335188238.jpg1595334988401.jpg
 
Usually, these things turn out to be huge nothingburgers, but in 2020, all bets are off.

The effects of a dam failure would be insane, not only would it kill millions of people and devastate many cities and countless villages, it would have global consequences . . . a high cost, but I would pay it gladly, if it meant that the CCP gets obliterated in the process.
 
While i would consider the US mainstream media to be a lost cause not even worth getting mad over silence form Japan is kinda strange.

My guess is that Japan and Korea's silence is because of deliberate Chinese censorship and also because their own governments are likely still making civil defense and emergency preparation plans and don't want to incite a mass panic before the plans are fully codified and laid out.

The question I'm wondering is how it will affect the United States, since I live there. This will fuck over our manufacturing badly, especially certain essential goods like pharmaceuticals.

While we have been doing some measures to move out of China thanks to the trade wars, there is still too much essential manufacturing tied up in Southern China and honestly, it will be a true miracle if the Three Gorges Dam makes it to the end of August without collapsing. I don't even think it will last the summer, let alone the remainder of 2020.

This will have a catastrophic knockdown effect on our economy and on key essential goods and services, but unlike COVID-19, it's a bit trickier to politicize. Aside from generic climate sperging and anti-capitalist sperging, there's no real way to blame this on Trump specifically since this is in China and it isn't a viral pandemic like COVID-19 was, and this will cause genuine hardship for most Americans.

Trump could turn this around and tweet about how much previous administrations and the big corporations put all their eggs in one basket but it still can't change the fact that people will be in severe hardship and will also be pissed.

I don't want to get all blackpill doomer, but the Three Gorges Dam giving out is an actual black swan game changer that would be a "new normal" even without the Woke Left or other political ideologues.

Best case scenario, China does a cold shutdown of their reactors to save face before it's too late and the CCP may give a vague statement of how the blackouts are because of "routine maintenance" and when the dam goes burst in full, the Chinese economy will be terminated but we won't have a hopelessly irradiated Pacific ocean.

There will be massive shortages and the United States might fare slightly better than most of the West thanks to the trade war moving some manufacturing to India and Vietnam, and the stock market will bottom out yet again. If Trump is smart, he'll pull for another gibs program and get the hurting corporate lobbyists to take the hint and convince them lean on the Dems to pass this bill through with as little hassle as possible.

If we get four more years of Trump, the Woke Left is terminated because the majority of the American people will have actual problems to deal with and the corporate elites who dumped all this capital into BLM and Antifa will be severely hurting for cash and the Chinese market is no longer there to save them from "Get Woke, Go Broke" or even just general incompetence.

Expect a cultural shift forced by economics either way, and expect at least a few of these major companies to likely do what Red Bull is doing right now and purge as many of the diversity hires and expendable SJW's as possible, and forcing the SJW workers with any actual skills or value to keep their mouths shut and check their politics at the door.

If Trump ekes out a win (especially if Biden loses the popular vote too) then the DNC and the big corporate elites will look for a scapegoat and they will blame the Woke Left and groups like BLM, Antifa, and the DSA. They'll use their previous disdain of Bernie Sanders to help out with the big narrative shift and try to memory hole as much of their previous support to save face and hope to recover economically.

Everyone will be hurting and suffering to varying degrees even in the best case scenario where China gets it shit together long enough to prevent literal nuclear disaster and the DNC and their CCP-backed corporate overlords lose the 2020 Election. The early 2020's will be rough either way though.

Europe and the rest of the world will be fucked even harder than we are in a best-case scenario although the United States and India can be primed to make a stronger recovery in the long run if they play their cards right and the absolute worst-case scenario does not happen.
 
Last edited:
As other have already mentioned, it is a Gravity dam and by virtue of design, less likely to fail due to structural integrity than say an arch dams, and even should part of it fails, it will not fail catastrophically. That is why the engineers went with a gravity dam, because it spans a wide distance, and they really really do not want it to fail in any way.

The dam is built partially to reduce the annual flooding of the Yangtze river. It has so far done well since 2009 by daming a giant lake above the dam. Please understand that by its very nature, the pressure withstood by the dam is not the weight of the lake, but the depth of the lake. As I understand it, if the lake overfills, they have other empty areas to channel the floodwater.
Any truth to this.?
 
As other have already mentioned, it is a Gravity dam and by virtue of design, less likely to fail due to structural integrity than say an arch dams, and even should part of it fails, it will not fail catastrophically. That is why the engineers went with a gravity dam, because it spans a wide distance, and they really really do not want it to fail in any way.

The dam is built partially to reduce the annual flooding of the Yangtze river. It has so far done well since 2009 by daming a giant lake above the dam. Please understand that by its very nature, the pressure withstood by the dam is not the weight of the lake, but the depth of the lake. As I understand it, if the lake overfills, they have other empty areas to channel the floodwater.
Any truth to this.?
I'm not sure about the failure modes of the dam, but yeah, it only has to hold the pressure differential. At the bottom it's going to be the depth pressure times the area. You'll have to integrate the pressure function going up.
Edit: basically the pressure a submarine would have to hold at the depth, but with a TON more surface area.
 
Something else I've been observing in footage and pictures that are coming out of China: lots of bridges are collapsing as the floods undermine and otherwise cause damage to their supports. This is a major problem. A bridge is one of the most useful pieces of infrastructure outside of sanitation and power generation (in that order). One bridge collapsing will set a community back for however long it takes to fix the bridge. And if you have spans fail along an entire river or along multiple rivers, you're in it pretty deep. Airlifting supplies isn't cheap and fuel is a precious commodity in times of disaster.

Rebuilding won't be easy either, as the amount of water moving through these areas isn't going to stop for a while and is changing the topography of the region.
 

















As other have already mentioned, it is a Gravity dam and by virtue of design, less likely to fail due to structural integrity than say an arch dams, and even should part of it fails, it will not fail catastrophically. That is why the engineers went with a gravity dam, because it spans a wide distance, and they really really do not want it to fail in any way.

The dam is built partially to reduce the annual flooding of the Yangtze river. It has so far done well since 2009 by daming a giant lake above the dam. Please understand that by its very nature, the pressure withstood by the dam is not the weight of the lake, but the depth of the lake. As I understand it, if the lake overfills, they have other empty areas to channel the floodwater.
Any truth to this.?
The big question is: How much is the dam affected by shoddy construction? There's reports of tears in the dam, 30m long and 3m deep from 10 years ago. Technically, the dam should be able to hold up, but what if it actually gets overwhelmed by too much water? What if part of it gives way, will the whole thing break catastrophically or will it withstand the damage?

And here's a fun idea to contemplate: Given Chinese quality work ethics and so on, how reliable are the failsafes in reality? If the valves to drain the dam turn out to be washed out of their sockets due to prolonged use and end up being the weakpoint that rips open the dam, I wouldn't even be surprised.


This will have a catastrophic knockdown effect on our economy and on key essential goods and services, but unlike COVID-19, it's a bit trickier to politicize.
"The rain that broke the dam was caused by global warming" and that thing can be easily twisted against Orange Hitler.
 
I'm not sure about the failure modes of the dam, but yeah, it only has to hold the pressure differential. At the bottom it's going to be the depth pressure times the area. You'll have to integrate the pressure function going up.
Edit: basically the pressure a submarine would have to hold at the depth, but with a TON more surface area.
The 五毛党 has been posting these kinda answers on quota
No sure as I shit all about building dams
 
The 五毛党 has been posting these kinda answers on quota
No sure as I shit all about building dams
You should have told us that was copy-pasted from somewhere else right off the bat.
Quora user said:
As other have already mentioned, it is a Gravity dam and by virtue of design, less likely to fail due to structural integrity than say an arch dams, and even should part of it fails, it will not fail catastrophically. That is why the engineers went with a gravity dam, because it spans a wide distance, and they really really do not want it to fail in any way.

The dam is built partially to reduce the annual flooding of the Yangtze river. It has so far done well since 2009 by daming a giant lake above the dam. Please understand that by its very nature, the pressure withstood by the dam is not the weight of the lake, but the depth of the lake. As I understand it, if the lake overfills, they have other empty areas to channel the floodwater.
As other have already mentioned, it is a Gravity dam and by virtue of design, less likely to fail due to structural integrity than say an arch dams, and even should part of it fails, it will not fail catastrophically. That is why the engineers went with a gravity dam, because it spans a wide distance, and they really really do not want it to fail in any way.

The dam is built partially to reduce the annual flooding of the Yangtze river. It has so far done well since 2009 by daming a giant lake above the dam. Please understand that by its very nature, the pressure withstood by the dam is not the weight of the lake, but the depth of the lake. As I understand it, if the lake overfills, they have other empty areas to channel the floodwater.
Any truth to this.?
And this is all technically true, but it's seemingly trying to muddy the waters about the possibility of failure more than anything else. The CCP is opening up every possible diversion for the floodwater, and depending on the sediment buildup the dam could be in more serious trouble than it appears.

I saw earlier the claim that if the water overtops the dam at 185m elevation it will be catastrophic, but I didn't see any detail on what exactly would happen or why.
 
To be fair to the Chicom, the dam is designed to distort somewhat. I was shown a computer simulation today from an engineer who worked on the dam - not a chink - who says it's working as intended atm. The google image was certainly bullshit.
He says that the issue will be three "weak points" in key locations downstream that are more of a concern.
Which seem to match the latter of that transcript.

It's very strange, because in Asian news world, this isn't getting any attention. In fact there's been no real bulletins from government sources about this from anyone. There's been conjecture, but nothing official, which is strange, because Japan and Korea, for instance, love to shit on China. Most of the official/off the books word there is that it will hold up*. The only "reportable" stuff has been recycles from French news media.
*Or rather - it will be "fine", coz they'll just flood the shit out of elsewhere.

The dam failing would be a K.O for China and Xi is a cunt, so this is a theory I totally believe. I'm shocked he hasn't bought in Uyghurs to use as human sandbags.

It annoys me that this is getting zero attention in the US, who are instead playing lies and bullshit about dead criminal negros and "muh racism" 24/7.
I've noticed the lack of reporting too. The news sources mostly come from the State media, anti-CCP outlets and a few newswires that mostly repeat what the former two have said.

Remember back during initial phase of the corona pandemic, China kicked out reporters from the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times and the Washington Post. We probably would be getting coverage and information if those people remained there. Probably one of the "lessons" the government took from the disaster is that it had been too "lax" in letting foreign reporters operate. They are not do that this time around, so all news coming out of the place will have properly vetted by the government.

This is going to be true for news stories coming out of China going forward, I think.
 
And here's a fun idea to contemplate: Given Chinese quality work ethics and so on, how reliable are the failsafes in reality? If the valves to drain the dam turn out to be washed out of their sockets due to prolonged use and end up being the weakpoint that rips open the dam, I wouldn't even be surprised.

The book I parsed through previously in this thread about the failures of the 3GD draft planning made it a specific point to note that Chinese construction is plagued by the idea that planning for failure is seen as admitting (possible) failure, which they really, really dislike. I wouldn't be surprised if failsafe mechanisms were not planned seriously, were not made up to code, and were done shoddily. It's the idea that "our glorious dam is so glorious we don't even need to plan for what will happen if there is any failure or flooding we can't predict!" Obviously that's retarded, but it would explain why they're nervous enough to flood entire regions on purpose rather than bump up against using failsafe mechanisms.
 
The book I parsed through previously in this thread about the failures of the 3GD draft planning made it a specific point to note that Chinese construction is plagued by the idea that planning for failure is seen as admitting (possible) failure, which they really, really dislike. I wouldn't be surprised if failsafe mechanisms were not planned seriously, were not made up to code, and were done shoddily. It's the idea that "our glorious dam is so glorious we don't even need to plan for what will happen if there is any failure or flooding we can't predict!" Obviously that's retarded, but it would explain why they're nervous enough to flood entire regions on purpose rather than bump up against using failsafe mechanisms.
Well China as well known for its glorious construction projects and over all integrity and lack of corruption
 
Back