China Floodwatch 2020-21 - Wuhan, Hubei/Henan Province is sinking and I dunno how to swim.

[heathercho]

Have there been any new updates on evacuations? Last I saw, they were at 34 million and climbing.

Nikkei have said 40 million, but that's a dubious figure, as there's no source and it's cumulative from June, anyway.
A lot of people have been sent back to their homes already or they were cancelled evacuation warnings.
Other people report 24 million have been affected, but evacuations have been localised and kept within 30k max blocks.

My guess is that Japan and Korea's silence is because of deliberate Chinese censorship and also because their own governments are likely still making civil defense and emergency preparation plans and don't want to incite a mass panic before the plans are fully codified and laid out.

I've noticed the lack of reporting too. The news sources mostly come from the State media, anti-CCP outlets and a few newswires that mostly repeat what the former two have said.

Remember back during initial phase of the corona pandemic, China kicked out reporters from the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times and the Washington Post. We probably would be getting coverage and information if those people remained there. Probably one of the "lessons" the government took from the disaster is that it had been too "lax" in letting foreign reporters operate. They are not do that this time around, so all news coming out of the place will have properly vetted by the government.

This is going to be true for news stories coming out of China going forward, I think.

Like with North Korea, China is still "open" for information flow. The lack of reporting isn't based on lack of on the ground information - in fact, there's plenty of Chinese journalists who work from within China for broader reach outlets. This dissension is growing and is mirrored in the bias of information coming out.

The usual sources we would use for the outlet I work for, are nonchalant on the matter. The only real intra-China procedure being discussed is that Wuhan will be protected at all costs, they will flood everywhere else to save major hubs and that the deformation of the dam is within limits. Lake Poyang seems to be a bigger talking point.

The only people disputing this are long term critics.
Which as a source, I dislike, because these people have been saying the exact same thing every time a massive influx of water occurs, it's just getting more coverage atm because of anti-China sentiment.

Which is the same as anti-USA bias in media, you can't trust it just because it fits your world view, it's useless information on the whole from a reporting standpoint.

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

Nikkei have said 40 million, but that's a dubious figure, as there's no source and it's cumulative from June, anyway.
A lot of people have been sent back to their homes already or they were cancelled evacuation warnings.
Other people report 24 million have been affected, but evacuations have been localised and kept within 30k max blocks.






Like with North Korea, China is still "open" for information flow. The lack of reporting isn't based on lack of on the ground information - in fact, there's plenty of Chinese journalists who work from within China for broader reach outlets. This dissension is growing and is mirrored in the bias of information coming out.

The usual sources we would use for the outlet I work for, are nonchalant on the matter. The only real intra-China procedure being discussed is that Wuhan will be protected at all costs, they will flood everywhere else to save major hubs and that the deformation of the dam is within limits. Lake Poyang seems to be a bigger talking point.

The only people disputing this are long term critics.
Which as a source, I dislike, because these people have been saying the exact same thing every time a massive influx of water occurs, it's just getting more coverage atm because of anti-China sentiment.

Which is the same as anti-USA bias in media, you can't trust it just because it fits your world view, it's useless information on the whole from a reporting standpoint.

This is a very good post.

With all that said, whatever is happening now is definitely atypical. Demolishing dams and sacrificing farmland is not the sort of thing that makes one confident in a positive outcome for this situation. Not to say that the big dam will break; just to say that things in China are going to remain pretty rough for the foreseeable future. Maybe 2021 or 2022 will be a better year for them.

 

[I can't imagine]

The title of his poem sounds like a bad omen of things to come....

Mao apparently really loved swimming, or at least he told everyone that he did. He swam the Yangtze in Wuhan a number of times; I think this poem was after his first swim there, but if not, it was around that time. Though most photos seem to suggest his swimming mostly consisted of floating downriver on his back for a few miles, occasionally actually doing strokes. But, in fairness, that's still not too bad for a man who was pretty old and fat at the time.

In true Mao Zedong fashion, however, his deeds couldn't go without being hilariously exaggerated. His 1966 swim in Wuhan had him supposedly swimming 9 miles in 65 minutes, which is absurdly fast, even accounting for swift currents. Most non-Chinese weren't terribly credulous of this claim, given that he was obese and in his seventies, but still, that was the claim.

But it was built into a legend in China; they have an annual Yangtze River crossing in Wuhan every year which attracts people from around the world. Well, mostly annual. It was supposed to happen a few days ago, but I think you can guess whether or not that happened.

Anyway, that's one reason why Wuhan is pretty closely identified with the Yangtze.

 

[The golden neckbeard]

Water starting to rise upstream again...its starting.

Also get ready for some /pol tards probably. They linked to the thread

 

[Shadfan666xxx000]

Water starting to rise upstream again...its starting.

Also get ready for some /pol tards probably. They linked to the thread

>beware poltards
As if kiwifarms isn't basically a /pol/ and /b/ outpost.

 

[The Big O]

I'm nothing if not morbidly fascinated at the possible human calamity that could result from the Three Gorges Dam having a catastrophic failure. My sympathy for China and the CCP has all but dried up between the Coronavirus, Hong Kong, and the Uighyur organ farming. This is hubris that is deserving of a biblical smackdown.

The only thing I don't look forward to is the torrent of dead bodies and destroyed infrastructure that will spill out into the seas beyond Shanghai should the dam get breached. That will have huge ramifications for the rest of the world that could take ages to clean up.

 

[tehpope]

They're really that stupid. They won't even suggest failure because the subprivate who does so will get disappeared, if not then his commander would, if not then his commander, and so on and so forth until the top. When you rule an authoritarian oligarchy by force and fear, any dissent has to be quashed in favor of what's harmonious to the state. That's what happened in the USSR and it's what will happen in China. Nothing is a problem until it's broken, and even then it's not allowed to be talked about.

When the 3GD collapses, we're all gonna be fucked. At least America has somewhat of a chance. Just think about how screwed Japan, Korea, and SE Asia will be.

Spoiler: me sperging about nonsense that won't happen

Spoiler: serious dude, don't read this

Spoiler: fine. whatever

The mass exodus from the West Coast would be massive if large scale radiation makes it to those areas. It'd mostly be places like Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, LA, and San Diego. LA might be okay, just close all the beaches and ports down. All the others have waterways to their city from the Ocean. It would not only put stress on the other parts of the country, but poz the political systems there since these people would be forced to move and they're not changing their politics. It might take a few years to reach us, since it took 2 years for the Fukushima radiation to reach the west coast.

E1: Idk how Guam, Hawaii, or any other pacific island territory would be affected. That would be a clusterfuck if we'd have to evacuate those areas, since they're not on the mainland and it'd take weeks and tons of boats to do so. The issue wouldn't be the population, but getting everyone and their belongings off there in a reasonable fashion and in enough time.

E2: Alaska would also be affected. Not to mention BC in Canada. At least Alaska has a ton of empty areas to move to, but it'd take years, probably decades, to build back up. In places like Barrow, it'd be "Get your shit, we're throwing you on a plane" if it was in danger.

E3: Alaska could turn into STALKER: Murica Edition if shit got really out of hand. Chekki Brekki.

 

[The golden neckbeard]

Fire & police responding to reports of documents being burned at Consulate General of China in Houston, Texas - KPRC


wtf?

edit

https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2020/07/22/houston-fire-and-police-responding-to-reports-of-documents-being-burned-at-consulate-general-of-china/

 

[Captain Hastings Official]

Why the fuck would we evacuate Hawaii just because of nuclear accidents a quarter of the way around the world from it? The Pacific is big, really big, and water is very good at absorbing radiation. I mean, vast quantities of nuclear pollution in the SCS would be an environmental disaster of unprecedented magnitude, but it's not like everyone in Japan is going to get radiation poisoning suddenly, let alone the people in Hawaii. Remember how many times we nuked random islands in the '50s and '60s, just to test things out? Not a good thing to do, since it kicked a lot of radioactive dust into the atmosphere, but you'll note Hawaii is still inhabited.

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

Fire & police responding to reports of documents being burned at Consulate General of China in Houston, Texas - KPRC


wtf?

Could be something. Could be nothing.

I burn documents in a old aluminum trash can out back. People are psycho and will put shredded documents back together.

 

[The golden neckbeard]

Could be something. Could be nothing.

I burn documents in a old aluminum trash can out back. People are psycho and will put shredded documents back together.

Yeah but this is like a bonfire obviuisly if
police are inbound..not a bathroom garbage Can on the patio thing.

could be right. Could be nothing. Just odd timing. Sounds like what happens before somebody goes to war

 

[1Tonka_Truck]

China admits deformation but claims its no big deal

It's not unusual for reinforced concrete structures to undergo elastic deformation near the upper end of their designed load. A design criteria of many bridges is that they don't move, mostly because it freaks people out, so they have to be significantly overbuilt. A dam would deform so slowly as the water level comes up that I doubt that was a consideration. That said, reinforced concrete can't deform much before the deformation becomes non-elastic; concrete cracking and delaminating from the rebar.

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

could be right. Could be nothing. Just odd timing. Sounds like what happens before somebody goes to war

If it is the lead up to something bigger, Texas was the wrong state to do this in first.

 

[The golden neckbeard]

If it is the lead up to something bigger, Texas was the wrong state to do this in first.

Well they have huge exercises ongoing.

Chinese military starts 79-day exercises amid pandemic to deter Taiwan and warn the US

Chinese PLA forces will be undertaking rigorous training at Bohai Bay near Tianjin for two and a half months. It is probably not a coincidence that Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s inauguration day — 20 May — is well within that period and the military’s activities will serve as a constant...

www.thinkchina.sg

On top of this

https://mobile.twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1285768893135564802

Sounds like war.

Look at the metals market

Hope not. I wanted to sleep tonight dam

 

[BIG BILL HELL'S]

China admits deformation but claims its no big deal

So this is nothing more than the Great Footbinding Incident of 2020, then?

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

Well they have huge exercises ongoing.

Chinese military starts 79-day exercises amid pandemic to deter Taiwan and warn the US

Chinese PLA forces will be undertaking rigorous training at Bohai Bay near Tianjin for two and a half months. It is probably not a coincidence that Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s inauguration day — 20 May — is well within that period and the military’s activities will serve as a constant...

www.thinkchina.sg

On top of this

https://mobile.twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1285768893135564802

Sounds like war.

Look at the metals market

Maybe. Probably not, I don't see it.

"Confrontation with China" is ambiguous at best. It could be tomorrow or it could be a decade from now. And what form does that confrontation take, even under the umbrella of the Department of Defense? And on military exercises, what of it? The USA does military exercises literally in China's back yard all the time and it never leads to a shooting war. There are two aircraft carriers there right now. China are allowed to train their troops, I would expect nothing less. All the better for them that they get to stick it in Taiwan's face; I'd probably do something similar if I were Chinese and somehow in the ruling echelon.

I think the flooding is the more pertinent issue to pay attention to right now. It certainly makes me more anxious than the possibility of war breaking out.

 

[The golden neckbeard]

Yes my bad got way off topic.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

Well they have huge exercises ongoing.

Chinese military starts 79-day exercises amid pandemic to deter Taiwan and warn the US

Chinese PLA forces will be undertaking rigorous training at Bohai Bay near Tianjin for two and a half months. It is probably not a coincidence that Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s inauguration day — 20 May — is well within that period and the military’s activities will serve as a constant...

www.thinkchina.sg

On top of this

https://mobile.twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1285768893135564802

Sounds like war.

Look at the metals market

Hope not. I wanted to sleep tonight dam

Even discounting pro USA propaganda China is weak, they would not survive an all out war with the USA. Endless hordes of troops isn't going to win you a war in today's military affairs like it would in WW2 or before. Not to mention as far as I know there's no honor culture or devotion to the state like there was in WW2 japan, so even if they decided to implement suicidal tactics for their troops I doubt a good chunk of them would cooperate.

 

[he who has thus come/gone]

Even discounting pro USA propaganda China is weak, they would not survive an all out war with the USA. Endless hordes of troops isn't going to win you a war in today's military affairs like it would in WW2 or before. Not to mention as far as I know there's no honor culture or devotion to the state like there was in WW2 japan, so even if they decided to implement suicidal tactics for their troops I doubt a good chunk of them would cooperate.

I agree that a real military engagement is extremely unlikely. China does not have the ability to project force into the US mainland, whereas the US can send multiple (we already have 2 there, but we have many more) carrier groups to the South China Sea. The US and Japan are the only countries in the world to have engaged in a carrier-based naval battle (Battle of the Coral Sea) so, if we're talking naval tradition and experience, we handily beat out China at that game. Plus China has a ton of problems going on right now. Flooding, economic issues, trade issues, dissent popping up at local levels, massive military corruption, agricultural issues, etc. They already need to import tons of food from the US—and that will only increase in the coming months as the effects of this flooding on their harvests comes into fruition. If they want to lock out that critical source of food, the people would just starve. Sure, the US has disadvantages, too. China would likely engage in serious asymmetrical warfare and a huge production market would be closed out to us. But when it comes to iPhones and medicine vs food and access to the international market based on the US dollar, I think the latter wins out.

If anything, these tensions seem to be poised at distractions, especially as a result covid and internal issues in China. It could also be part of a bargaining move by China for the election cycle. Raise tensions then offer to lower them in exchange for something—a classic tactic, especially if Trump loses. I just don't see any serious warfare happening, especially when half the West thinks China is responsible for covid already.

Plus there are likely serious issues with the Chinese military, which itself really hasn't ever been tested. Remember how well they fared in that engagement with India just recently? Which isn't to say India is a weak country militarily—they have a long military tradition going back to British times (WWII in particular) and, well, before if you want to get historical about it. I just don't see China putting itself into a position where it could be proven to be a paper dragon on the international scene, especially when a single bunker buster could take out the entire country.

I'm more worried about the flooding than a military engagement, especially one predicated on...(relatively) slight diplomatic tensions? Maybe if Chinese people were being lynched in the streets, but high level corruption and espionage issues don't seem like a good hill to die on. There are also so many Chinese students in America right now, it would be tough in my opinion to just let them be used as leverage.

 

[Michael Wade]

Something's going on. Rationally, its likely not going to lead to much, but when you factor in the human element.......



They are going to get the boot too.