China Floodwatch 2020-21 - Wuhan, Hubei/Henan Province is sinking and I dunno how to swim.

[1Tonka_Truck]

3GD intake surged to 52km³/s

52,000 m³/s != 52km³/s

1 cubic kilometer is 1,000,000,000 cubic meters

 

[Otterly]

A cubic metre of water weighs a ton. The destructive power is unimaginable

 

[RomanesEuntDomus]

A cubic metre of water weighs a ton. The destructive power is unimaginable

It's not just the water that would come crushing down the river, it'll carry debris, rocks, trees. The water alone is enough to destroy everything, but with all that shit floating in the wave, it'll simply grind everything to dust in its wake. It will be so destructive, in many cases, you won't even be able to tell there ever were buildings in the first place.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

It's not just the water that would come crushing down the river, it'll carry debris, rocks, trees. The water alone is enough to destroy everything, but with all that shit floating in the wave, it'll simply grind everything to dust in its wake. It will be so destructive, in many cases, you won't even be able to tell there ever were buildings in the first place.

Even without all that, the increased silt/sediment build up in the reservoir & against the dam must be enormous.

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

I recommend you use http://3gd.mooo.com/ for tracking the current numbers; the project is tracking the official statistics and displays historic data back to the 19th, while also providing a reliable reference for the 3GD inflow because it's missing from those official reports most of the time. Summary as of writing:

• Flow in Chongqing is again accelerating towards the levels it was at over a week ago.
• 3GD inflow is greater than the outflow again, not just because the inflow is rising, but because the outflow is a bit low right now.
• After a slow decline over the week, the water level in Wuhan is starting to rise again, increasing by 5cm over the past 24 hours to around 28.4m.

They must be underestimating the inflow because the 24-hour graph looks like this, which makes no sense (water level shouldn't be rising if outflow > inflow). With the current storm, it's going to rise by quite a bit again.

Oh yeah it's definitely going to start shooting up again. Even the official and unreliable reports have the reservoir up a meter in the last ten hours. In fact there are no decreasing totals on their reports anymore, most are rising with a few holding steady.

What was the top-out point? 175 meters? I cannot remember but it was mentioned earlier in the thread. And over in Wuhan wasn't the city being protected by earthen dikes that sat around 36 meters, with the city beneath being significantly lower than 36 meters? If any of those dikes are breached, Wuhan is in for some bad times. They'll have water up to the third floor in some places.

Also thanks for that link! Should have bookmarked it when you posted it last time.

edit: I just noticed this on the official numbers. And I point this out because as has been discussed, official numbers from China may be questionable. Look at this:

(official numbers from CCP: http://www.cjh.com.cn/swyb_sssq.html)
(independent sourcing: http://3gd.mooo.com/)

As of an hour ago the Three Gorges Reservoir is pulling in 54,000 cubic meters and releasing 37,400 cubic meters. That's one of the biggest disparities I've seen. No wonder the reservoir is filling up fast. The CCP numbers are going to update in about ten minutes. Curious to see how those numbers change.

edit 2: The 11AM numbers have come in. As usual we lost any official inflow numbers from Three Gorges Dam. But the outflow seems to have dropped by 100 cubic meters per second.

 

[RomanesEuntDomus]

They'll have water up to the third floor in some places.

And we all know how shoddily the Chinese make their foundations, even for skyscrapers.

Imagine this:

But for buildings so large, the distance between each building is only a fraction of their height.
Like this:

It'll be like Dominoes. Dominoes 30 stories tall, that is.

Oh yeah it's definitely going to start shooting up again. Even the official and unreliable reports have the reservoir up a meter in the last ten hours. In fact there are no decreasing totals on their reports anymore, most are rising with a few holding steady.

What was the top-out point? 175 meters? I cannot remember but it was mentioned earlier in the thread. And over in Wuhan wasn't the city being protected by earthen dikes that sat around 36 meters, with the city beneath being significantly lower than 36 meters? If any of those dikes are breached, Wuhan is in for some bad times. They'll have water up to the third floor in some places.

Also thanks for that link! Should have bookmarked it when you posted it last time.

edit: I just noticed this on the official numbers. And I point this out because as has been discussed, official numbers from China may be questionable. Look at this:
View attachment 1475046
(official numbers from CCP: http://www.cjh.com.cn/swyb_sssq.html)
(independent sourcing: http://3gd.mooo.com/)

As of an hour ago the Three Gorges Reservoir is pulling in 54,000 cubic meters and releasing 37,400 cubic meters. That's one of the biggest disparities I've seen. No wonder the reservoir is filling up fast. The CCP numbers are going to update in about ten minutes. Curious to see how those numbers change.

edit 2: The 11AM numbers have come in. As usual we lost any official inflow numbers from Three Gorges Dam. But the outflow seems to have dropped by 100 cubic meters per second.

This isn't the first time that the outflow was reduced by 100 cubic metres, strange how that's the number, I guess it has something to do with how they measure it, maybe it's the smallest denomination, that they can register (ie: it's somewhere below 100 metres, but it gets rounded up)?

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

This isn't the first time that the outflow was reduced by 100 cubic metres, strange how that's the number, I guess it has something to do with how they measure it, maybe it's the smallest denomination, that they can register (ie: it's somewhere below 100 metres, but it gets rounded up)?

That seems like a very good guess.

The picture you posted was exactly what I was imagining when I was writing that post. Some water on the first floor and they may be fine. But the amount of unintended stress put on the building that is two or three stories underwater must be immense. Even a good foundation may not be able to handle that. And god forbid the water is moving.

 

[I can't imagine]

What was the top-out point? 175 meters? I cannot remember but it was mentioned earlier in the thread. And over in Wuhan wasn't the city being protected by earthen dikes that sat around 36 meters, with the city beneath being significantly lower than 36 meters? If any of those dikes are breached, Wuhan is in for some bad times. They'll have water up to the third floor in some places.

Looking around, it appears that the dikes are now 2 m taller than the highest water level in the 1954 flood. The highest water level in Wuhan during the 1954 flood was 29.73 m, assuming Wikipedia is to be believed, so figure they're probably around 32 m or so. So presumably, they've got a bit to go before topping out on the dikes, though obviously the higher the level, the more potential for breaches. They've had people patrolling the dikes, so they're looking out for breaches, though it won't necessarily help in case of sudden catastrophic breaches. I'm not sure how likely sudden catastrophic breaches are to occur, however; my gut says "not very", but I'm not an expert or anything.

But, well, one bad week and things could go really south, particularly if TGD has to amp up it's output flow.

 

[The golden neckbeard]

If the dam breaks it was clearly an act of war by the Americans. There is absolutely no other conceivable alternative. After all, while China is number one, America can control the weather, conjure earthquakes, and rain hellfire down from outer space. DUH.

To be honest we have technology that can do this acordkng to whistleblowers. It wouldnt suprise me if this were some sort of HAARP operation.. or if this is chinas own tibet cloud seeding operating gone wrong.

The ground was unusually saturated before the season even started.

I see them going to war if they know its gonna happen because well...distraction

 

[Stoneheart]

Pooland is unlikely to be a manufacturing hub in our lifetime.

there will be no new china, but india will be a major workbench for cheap shit in the future. same for Burma and other states around.
you dont need people who can read to produce cheap shit.

 

[The golden neckbeard]

And we all know how shoddily the Chinese make their foundations, even for skyscrapers.

Imagine this:
View attachment 1475109

But for buildings so large, the distance between each building is only a fraction of their height.
Like this:
View attachment 1475111
It'll be like Dominoes. Dominoes 30 stories tall, that is.


This isn't the first time that the outflow was reduced by 100 cubic metres, strange how that's the number, I guess it has something to do with how they measure it, maybe it's the smallest denomination, that they can register (ie: it's somewhere below 100 metres, but it gets rounded up)?

As a construction person in my youth...a slab pourer and block mason. I dont see how they did that? They must have some massive machinery of some sort. Maybe in smaller secrions?

Its almost like a prefab highrise made elsewhere then that is set on pylons in the bedrock? Thats pretty fucking efficient and clever.

The problem is its not going to last 100 years with how the ground shifts but thats pretty smart for temporary generational housing aslong as you are routinely inspecting it.

Theoretically it should also be earthquake proof and is gonna cost a fraction of a traditional western slab poor and construction

 

[I can't imagine]

To be honest we have technology that can do this acordkng to whistleblowers. It wouldnt suprise me if this were some sort of HAARP operation.. or if this is chinas own tibet cloud seeding operating gone wrong.

The ground was unusually saturated before the season even started.

I see them going to war if they know its gonna happen because well...distraction

I don't know how well pulling the PLA from providing flood relief efforts to engage in a war hundreds of km away would work at distracting the people, y'know, in need of flood relief efforts from the PLA.

 

[The golden neckbeard]

I don't know how well pulling the PLA from providing flood relief efforts to engage in a war hundreds of km away would work at distracting the people, y'know, in need of flood relief efforts from the PLA.

The PLA is huge....its an understatemt to say they could pull off both and then some

Plus they rely on workers mobilization parties and militia for these sort of functions. They dont send frontline combat units the same reason we send national guard to flood relief areas

 

[Otterly]

To be honest we have technology that can do this acordkng to whistleblowers.

I do love a good conspiracy rabbithole. What’s this one?

 

[1Tonka_Truck]

As a construction person in my youth...a slab pourer and block mason. I dont see how they did that? They must have some massive machinery of some sort. Maybe in smaller secrions?

What you are looking at is what happens when a project manager can't manage a toddler. They completed construction on the buildings before excavating for the underground parking garage. They had no temporary shoring or soil reinforcement in place. For bonus points they piled the spoils on the far side of the buildings. This caused a massive shear load on the foundation piers. Most of the piers broke off in the ground and the few that didn't pulled out completely.

 

[The golden neckbeard]

I do love a good conspiracy rabbithole. What’s this one?

HAARP

and the chinese have been very public about their tibet cloud seeding...its a national pride project.

I am more inclined to think they caused this themselves then us but who knows

https://www.etcgroup.org/content/chinas-plan-engineer-himalayan-clouds-geoengineering-unintentional-or-otherwise

 

[JongleJingle]

@Jimmy Durante's Ballsack The bridge is supposed to harbor about 175m of water. How high is the flooding right now? If it's over 175, or god forbid goes the full mile and overcomes the full 185 meters of the dam, shits FUCKED.

 

[I can't imagine]

@Jimmy Durante's Ballsack The bridge is supposed to harbor about 175m of water. How high is the flooding right now? If it's over 175, or god forbid goes the full mile and overcomes the full 185 meters of the dam, shits FUCKED.

Last reports are a bit above 160m. Going up, but still lower than it's high point a week ago.

 

[The golden neckbeard]

Last reports are a bit above 160m. Going up, but still lower than it's high point a week ago.

Yeah it still has awhile to go but its rising

Tons of water coming from upstream

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

Outflow has dropped again from 37,300 to 37,200. Still small amounts and as mentioned, likely a rounding issue. But with the reservoir still rising slowly it seems strange to continue to slow the rate of drainage.

Fun fact: this event has taught me how to spell "reservoir" without looking it up.