China Floodwatch 2020-21 - Wuhan, Hubei/Henan Province is sinking and I dunno how to swim.

[Dojima's Dragon]

AKTUALLY it's the tremorous birthing-agonies of shub-niggurath waking from her slumber of aeons due to the cries of pain as untold legions of her malformed black children are ritually slaughtered in North america by the enforcers of a tyrannical regime birthed by a soulless, pustule-coloured people who arrived many years ago across a far sea

Wait isn't shub-niggurath an actual final boss in quake welp looks like the ranger will yeet her ass back to slumber

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

Estimates in the last 20 hours indicate a meter of additional water in the Three Gorges Dam reservoir. There is a slight reprieve in the immediate vicinity in terms of rain, but the rest of this week is forecast to see thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rain. As pointed out earlier today, Wednesday and Thursday (local time) may see as much as 1 meter of water fall on the region in those two days alone. Water will be delayed in running off so even when the rain stops the level will continue to rise for days after. And one meter of rain does not necessarily equate to one meter of reservoir increase, it will likely be magnified as dozens of waterways empty into the basin in addition to other runoff.

If the current level of reservoir increase continues, we'll see a little over one meter of water per day with the potential for sporadic increases in that amount (especially after Wednesday/Thursday). Further mitigation is unlikely up and down stream unless there are more smaller dams to destroy. And the reservoir level is around 160 meters, with a safe cap of 175 meters. Rainfall will likely continue well into August.

Forgive me, I just checked the levels again and it looks like we're at least 1.5 meters in the last 21 hours. The level just jumped up on the official (possibly unreliable) estimates provided by the CCP.

CCP numbers: http://www.cjh.com.cn/swyb_sssq.html
Independent numbers: http://3gd.mooo.com/

 

[heathercho]

Don't blame cloudseeding for this. The Chinese cloudseeding program exists because of semi-regular droughts that have led to the Huang He essentially drying up due to excessive use of its water (shitty irrigation channels and other bad engineering doesn't help either). It's success is dubious at best since China will still get nailed with severe droughts.

Whatever is going on atm, be it natural or not - is effecting more than just China.
South Korea is seeing flooding. Link. South Korea's flooding is leading to issues with contaminated water.
Saudi Arabia is seeing mass flooding. YT Video.
Even in Sydney, Australia - heavy rains and flood potential.

---
This is kinda hilarious, I'll translate the part that's important :

Recently, the “ Three Gorges Dam, ” is attracting much attention in overseas media . The dam's water level limit is set at 145m, however, recent flooding continues to exceed that limit by about 20m.
There are also reports that the central part of the dam is distorted by water pressure.
South Korean media reports on concerns that an incident could occur at nuclear power plants located downstream of the Yangtze River ; If the Three Gorges Dam - which has reached the highest water level ever - collapses, an unimaginable flood will occur, causing a nuclear accident.
Despite these concerns, China's Ministry of Water Affairs emphasised that "dams are safely managed", and the Communist Party media "Global World Times" have said, "Dams in countries other than China will not receive so much attention."
Western media reports - such as the distorted shape of the dam - "come from an anti-Chinese way of thinking ; It reveals a lack of knowledge of physics."
The article concludes with a comment from the expert, "People's conscience is more easily distorted than dams, which are much stronger than rumors."

https://archive.vn/Fo0QW

How Chinese. Remember - they did this last year. They won't give a shit about any of the victims of the floods, they'll save the precious dam and drown out the sounds of the people with concrete.

 

[Xarpho]

Any time the United States has a major flooding event, death tolls are an insignificant statistic (I know that making death just a number is a bit callous, but between Louisiana 2016 and Harvey, only 81 people died, whereas this stunt has cost 140+ lives and rising. Also in the United States, there's a general idea of which areas will flood and some infrastructure in place to mitigate damage. Even Oroville Dam, which wasn't in good condition by 2017, had good enough standards that it held up for nearly half a century and the engineers in 1968 had enough sense to build an emergency spillway, which didn't need to be used for decades until it did.

I mean, does China even have a Corps of Engineers equivalent?

 

[ConfederateIrishman]

Any time the United States has a major flooding event, death tolls are an insignificant statistic (I know that making death just a number is a bit callous, but between Louisiana 2016 and Harvey, only 81 people died, whereas this stunt has cost 140+ lives and rising. Also in the United States, there's a general idea of which areas will flood and some infrastructure in place to mitigate damage. Even Oroville Dam, which wasn't in good condition by 2017, had good enough standards that it held up for nearly half a century and the engineers in 1968 had enough sense to build an emergency spillway, which didn't need to be used for decades until it did.

I mean, does China even have a Corps of Engineers equivalent?

China has always had meme-tier casualty rates to disasters; Get ready for, '10,000,000' Chinese eaten; Tactical CCP victory' at this rate.

 

[Return of the Freaker]

View attachment 1476537
View attachment 1476545

China has always had meme-tier casualty rates to disasters; Get ready for, '10,000,000' Chinese eaten; Tactical CCP victory' at this rate.

"20,000 to 30,000 people were eaten. People always remained loyal"

If that isn't a perfect description of China I don't know what is.

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

I should be sleeping and preparing for a new week. Instead I'm LARPing as a journalist since they aren't reporting on this shit.

Okay so I have been grabbing numbers every few hours today. My snapshots aren't always spaced out as well as I would like, but here's a general summary of what today looked like:
(I am using official CCP numbers - Take them with a grain of salt. Even if they are doctored and/or low balled, I guess not even the CCP can polish this turd)

I simply wanted to look at the reservoir water height today since there had been a lot of rain over the weekend. Some of these numbers also include the amount of water flowing into the reservoir, which I will put in parenthesis next to the reservoir height. The times listed are all in Eastern Standard Time; I am not entirely sure why their website does this.

July 26 reservoir water level (and inflow)
10AM: 160.03m (54,000 m³/s)
11AM: 160.06m
3PM: 160.27m
4PM: 160.34m (55,000 m³/s)
8PM: 160.56m (57,000 m³/s)
9PM: 160.63m
10PM: 160.71m (59,000 m³/s)
11PM: 160.77m
12AM: 160.85m (59,500 m³/s)

The day started off with the same slow and steady increase in the reservoir's water level as the prior day. But the major factor between July 25th and July 26th was the rate of water flowing into the reservoir. To illustrate this, here is a data point from the day before:

July 25 reservoir water level (and inflow)
2PM: 158.86m (36,000 m³/s)

On July 25th at 2PM the Three Gorges Dam was releasing water at a rate of 37,500 m³/s which is a good thing. They were putting more water out through the dam than they were taking into the reservoir. Overnight that all changed as the recent storms began to hit the reservoir and the inflow began to skyrocket. Worse, over the course of July 26, there has been a minor but steady decrease in the amount of water the Three Gorges Dam is releasing. The day started at an outflow rate of 37,500 m³/s, then dropped to 37,400 m³/s until reaching 37,200 m³/s for most of the afternoon all the way up until the most recent reading at 11AM, just before I started writing this post. And I ended up spending so much time on this that you get the midnight readings as well! And yikes they don't look any better.

It is a very minor decrease; however I do not understand why outflow would be reduced at all given the enormous increase in reservoir inflow. What I do know is that the amount of water in the Three Gorges Dam reservoir has begun increasing more rapidly. The rate of inflow is especially alarming given all of the mitigation that the CCP has attempted over the past two weeks. It does not appear as if their efforts are having a long term, sustainable impact.

Today has offered a break in the rain but that ends in mere hours. And within 48 hours there is the potential for 10cm of rain to fall on the region around the dam, followed by days and days of steady rain in the forecast. I'm not sure what else there is to do at this point. Not to be a broken record, but the catastrophic flooding up and down stream is going to be get much worse before it starts to get even a little bit better. The dam is pushing ~37 tonnes of water per second out through its interior and yet the reservoir is taking in ~60 tonnes of water per second. I don't see that reservoir intake water dropping drastically. There may be a slight decrease as today's lack of rain hits in 12-24 hours, but then I would expect that number to jump back up again as the torrential downpours of the following few days make their way downstream.

I'm no good at math. But given the amount of land being rained upon and all of the rivers and tributaries and miscellaneous runoff, the reservoir is four or five days away from being slammed. And there does not appear to be any sign that the CCP will be able to reduce the water level significantly in time to ward off further problems up and down stream. I can't say if this will push the reservoir over its stated limits of 175 meters, but it's going to be a harrowing couple of weeks for people on either side of the Three Gorges Dam.

This 10-Day forecast says it all:
​

Spoiler: sources

My primary source is the official CCP monitoring site: http://www.cjh.com.cn/swyb_sssq.html
I also used an independent monitoring site as a secondary source: http://3gd.mooo.com/
Weather forecasts were pulled from this site: https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/CHHB5071:1:CH
Rainfall total predictions were pulled from this site: https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,2020-07-30-06,28.028,104.183,7,m:etDai3v

I keep these sites bookmarked for ease of use. You should too! And thanks to all the users that have shared links and helped fill in the picture.

 

[Getting tard comed]

I should be sleeping and preparing for a new week. Instead I'm LARPing as a journalist since they aren't reporting on this shit.

Okay so I have been grabbing numbers every few hours today. My snapshots aren't always spaced out as well as I would like, but here's a general summary of what today looked like:
(I am using official CCP numbers - Take them with a grain of salt. Even if they are doctored and/or low balled, I guess not even the CCP can polish this turd)

I simply wanted to look at the reservoir water height today since there had been a lot of rain over the weekend. Some of these numbers also include the amount of water flowing into the reservoir, which I will put in parenthesis next to the reservoir height. The times listed are all in Eastern Standard Time; I am not entirely sure why their website does this.

July 26 reservoir water level (and inflow)
10AM: 160.03m (54,000 m³/s)
11AM: 160.06m
3PM: 160.27m
4PM: 160.34m (55,000 m³/s)
8PM: 160.56m (57,000 m³/s)
9PM: 160.63m
10PM: 160.71m (59,000 m³/s)
11PM: 160.77m
12AM: 160.85m (59,500 m³/s)

The day started off with the same slow and steady increase in the reservoir's water level as the prior day. But the major factor between July 25th and July 26th was the rate of water flowing into the reservoir. To illustrate this, here is a data point from the day before:

July 25 reservoir water level (and inflow)
2PM: 158.86m (36,000 m³/s)

On July 25th at 2PM the Three Gorges Dam was releasing water at a rate of 37,500 m³/s which is a good thing. They were putting more water out through the dam than they were taking into the reservoir. Overnight that all changed as the recent storms began to hit the reservoir and the inflow began to skyrocket. Worse, over the course of July 26, there has been a minor but steady decrease in the amount of water the Three Gorges Dam is releasing. The day started at an outflow rate of 37,500 m³/s, then dropped to 37,400 m³/s until reaching 37,200 m³/s for most of the afternoon all the way up until the most recent reading at 11AM, just before I started writing this post. And I ended up spending so much time on this that you get the midnight readings as well! And yikes they don't look any better.

It is a very minor decrease; however I do not understand why outflow would be reduced at all given the enormous increase in reservoir inflow. What I do know is that the amount of water in the Three Gorges Dam reservoir has begun increasing more rapidly. The rate of inflow is especially alarming given all of the mitigation that the CCP has attempted over the past two weeks. It does not appear as if their efforts are having a long term, sustainable impact.

Today has offered a break in the rain but that ends in mere hours. And within 48 hours there is the potential for 10cm of rain to fall on the region around the dam, followed by days and days of steady rain in the forecast. I'm not sure what else there is to do at this point. Not to be a broken record, but the catastrophic flooding up and down stream is going to be get much worse before it starts to get even a little bit better. The dam is pushing ~37 tonnes of water per second out through its interior and yet the reservoir is taking in ~60 tonnes of water per second. I don't see that reservoir intake water dropping drastically. There may be a slight decrease as today's lack of rain hits in 12-24 hours, but then I would expect that number to jump back up again as the torrential downpours of the following few days make their way downstream.

I'm no good at math. But given the amount of land being rained upon and all of the rivers and tributaries and miscellaneous runoff, the reservoir is four or five days away from being slammed. And there does not appear to be any sign that the CCP will be able to reduce the water level significantly in time to ward off further problems up and down stream. I can't say if this will push the reservoir over its stated limits of 175 meters, but it's going to be a harrowing couple of weeks for people on either side of the Three Gorges Dam.

This 10-Day forecast says it all:
View attachment 1476643​

Spoiler: sources

My primary source is the official CCP monitoring site: http://www.cjh.com.cn/swyb_sssq.html
I also used an independent monitoring site as a secondary source: http://3gd.mooo.com/
Weather forecasts were pulled from this site: https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/CHHB5071:1:CH
Rainfall total predictions were pulled from this site: https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,2020-07-30-06,28.028,104.183,7,m:etDai3v

I keep these sites bookmarked for ease of use. You should too! And thanks to all the users that have shared links and helped fill in the picture.

Do you feel like the CCP will start evacuations and that can clue the rest of the world in how serious this is?

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

Do you feel like the CCP will start evacuations and that can clue the rest of the world in how serious this is?

My gut feeling is this: where are the people going to go? A lot of them are already flooded out; can they even escape at this point? But beyond that I really don't know. I imagine those with the means to do so can still escape or have already left. But that's a fraction of a fraction of the upper echelon of citizens.

 

[Xarpho]

Do you feel like the CCP will start evacuations and that can clue the rest of the world in how serious this is?

3GD is one of the flagship infrastructure pieces of "modern China", to admit defeat by evacuating the citizenry would be more shameful to the party image than just letting everyone die.

At best, CCP will stage a few rescue shots to send over to their friends at the media outlets in the United States.

 

[ConfederateIrishman]

Do you feel like the CCP will start evacuations and that can clue the rest of the world in how serious this is?

I feel like if they start evacuations they will make sure all the CCP officials are secured first, then tell the plebs; It would also be a few hours into the giant wave of doom already crashing through central china.

 

[Second Hand Syringe]

My gut feeling is this: where are the people going to go? A lot of them are already flooded out; can they even escape at this point? But beyond that I really don't know. I imagine those with the means to do so can still escape or have already left. But that's a fraction of a fraction of the upper echelon of citizens.

They would have to evacuate tens of millions of people out of the path of the dam; maybe even one hundred million+. It's almost impossible to comprehend what that would look like. People would be climbing on top of each other, highways would be jammed solid for miles. And once people got to high ground they'd be standing around trying to figure out how to get a meal and a place to sleep. Just look at the disastrous evacuations in the USA when hurricanes hit.... and they have somewhat world class infrastructure in terms of highways and freeways. Mass evacuation is a logistical impossibility.

Whenever I get sad about the thought of 100 million civilians being displaced or dying, I remind myself that they're commies who torture and eat dogs. Feels a lot like Karma to me.

 

[Coleslaw]

Im seeing open revolt against the CCP on what videos are getting out

People are livid

The Irish Revolution didn't happen during the potato famine.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

The Irish Revolution didn't happen during the potato famine.

It was famine which helped the CCP come to power though.

 

[Pokemonquistador2]

View attachment 1476537
View attachment 1476545

China has always had meme-tier casualty rates to disasters; Get ready for, '10,000,000' Chinese eaten; Tactical CCP victory' at this rate.

China's always been a horror show that treated the lives of women, kids and the elderly as cattle. I recall there was a section in the Chinese novel "Water Margin" where an army had overrun a village, killing its women, but had later managed to get the men of the village on their side by promising to give them brand new women. Women and kids were basically property to be used and abused at will and life was cheap.

People who have romantic views of pre-industrial cvillizations (or who think progressive values will survive an apocalyptic mass extinction event) are fools.

 

[Otterly]

It is a very minor decrease; however I do not understand why outflow would be reduced at all given the enormous increase in reservoir inflow.

Two reasons: 1. Downstream is already quite critical and they’re probably releasing the minimum they can to avoid catastrophe
2. They can’t, physically. Spillways are damaged/blocked or the amount of water and shite going through is doing damage.

Do you feel like the CCP will start evacuations and that can clue the rest of the world in how serious this is?

I feel like if they start evacuations they will make sure all the CCP officials are secured first, then tell the plebs; It would also be a few hours into the giant wave of doom already crashing through central china.

Yeah, the important people and resources will be quietly moved. Everyone else will be left to drown. They’ll probably spin it as hostile forces destroying the dam, it’s not like the public have any accurate information anyway. How can you even start evacuating that many people? Where do you put them? How do you feed them? Ironically how do you get them clean water? It’s already horribly flooded, and massive infrastructure damage.
There was a thread in China a while back where people discussed this kind of culture. Nobody will bring problems up because they get punished. Nobody wants to bring bad news or they get punished. Nobody builds in safety culture because to even imply things might go wrong is forbidden. So things get dealt with when they go catastrophically wrong, there’s no introspection/root cause analysis or blame free QC culture. Add in epic corruption, skimping in materials etc and a disregard for life and it’s a disaster.

 

[RomanesEuntDomus]

Estimates in the last 20 hours indicate a meter of additional water in the Three Gorges Dam reservoir. There is a slight reprieve in the immediate vicinity in terms of rain, but the rest of this week is forecast to see thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rain. As pointed out earlier today, Wednesday and Thursday (local time) may see as much as 1 meter of water fall on the region in those two days alone. Water will be delayed in running off so even when the rain stops the level will continue to rise for days after. And one meter of rain does not necessarily equate to one meter of reservoir increase, it will likely be magnified as dozens of waterways empty into the basin in addition to other runoff.

If the current level of reservoir increase continues, we'll see a little over one meter of water per day with the potential for sporadic increases in that amount (especially after Wednesday/Thursday). Further mitigation is unlikely up and down stream unless there are more smaller dams to destroy. And the reservoir level is around 160 meters, with a safe cap of 175 meters. Rainfall will likely continue well into August.

Forgive me, I just checked the levels again and it looks like we're at least 1.5 meters in the last 21 hours. The level just jumped up on the official (possibly unreliable) estimates provided by the CCP.

CCP numbers: http://www.cjh.com.cn/swyb_sssq.html
Independent numbers: http://3gd.mooo.com/

As far as official numbers are concerned, I wouldn't put it past CCP bullshittery that we'll see water overflowing the dam, while the CCP still claims that the level is 10m below the max capacity.

3GD is one of the flagship infrastructure pieces of "modern China", to admit defeat by evacuating the citizenry would be more shameful to the party image than just letting everyone die.

From their perspective it sort of looks like this:
Either, they test their luck and maybe the dam breaks, or they evacuate and they lose their face for certain.
Evacuating will make them look bad, even if the dam holds, so the better option is to simply gamble the lives of several million people on shoddy engineering.

This is what the political system and the CCP are all about. In the west, most (if not all) nations try to reduce the risk as much as they can for the average citizen. In China, they want to reduce the risk for the political leadership's reputation as much as they can. And they are willing to put millions of lives on the line, like poker chips, and they don't even care if all they are holding on to is a two of clubs, a five of spades, the 7 of hearts, the card with the playing instructions and a get-out-of-jail-free-card, while they go for a bluff.

They would have to evacuate tens of millions of people out of the path of the dam; maybe even one hundred million+. It's almost impossible to comprehend what that would look like. People would be climbing on top of each other, highways would be jammed solid for miles. And once people got to high ground they'd be standing around trying to figure out how to get a meal and a place to sleep. Just look at the disastrous evacuations in the USA when hurricanes hit.... and they have somewhat world class infrastructure in terms of highways and freeways. Mass evacuation is a logistical impossibility.

Whenever I get sad about the thought of 100 million civilians being displaced or dying, I remind myself that they're commies who torture and eat dogs. Feels a lot like Karma to me.

We already know what the Chinese do to each other on a good day. All this petty, insane backstabbing, deceiving, all the fraud and the manipulation. Really nasty shit that the average Chinese does to his fellow people on a daily basis. Now imagine it is a matter of live and death in the face of a catastrophe - it would be hell on earth. In a panic, people trample each other to the ground, I almost expect a Chinese mob of crazy, panicked people to do it on purpose.

It was famine which helped the CCP come to power though.

Well, that and the IJA. Mao Zedong used to joke that without the Imperial Japanese Army invading China and binding Kuomintang forces, the CCP would never have been able to gain a foothold to overthrow the KMT...
It is America's biggest blunder that they didn't just vaporize the CCP headquarter right after WW2.

They’ll probably spin it as hostile forces destroying the dam, it’s not like the public have any accurate information anyway.

Most likely, they'd pin it on muslims, some ethnic minority, Falun Gong or -in a pinch- possibly even KMT spies.

 

[Mooger Meng]

I should be sleeping and preparing for a new week. Instead I'm LARPing as a journalist since they aren't reporting on this shit.

It's not a high bar to clear, but you're pole-vaulting it all the same.

 

[Male Idiot]

Chinks in charge do not give a shit about the lives on the line, but they will feel the loss of infrastructure.

Even far away Hungary is effected by the heavy rains. No floods yet, but it rotted our fruit which we make booze out of.

Still if it takes the Coof Chink Party out... guess sobriety is a price worth paying for a year.

 

[Getting tard comed]

Chinks in charge do not give a shit about the lives on the line, but they will feel the loss of infrastructure.

Even far away Hungary is effected by the heavy rains. No floods yet, but it rotted our fruit which we make booze out of.

Still if it takes the Coof Chink Party out... guess sobriety is a price worth paying for a year.

What fruits are you guys using for alcohol in Hungary? Hungarian wine is a thing?